arXiv subjects

Thomas L. Griffiths

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas L. Griffiths.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Mind Your Step (by Step): Chain-of-Thought can Reduce Performance on Tasks where Thinking Makes Humans Worse

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting has become a widely used strategy for improving large language and multimodal model performance. However, it is still an open question under which settings CoT systematically reduces performance. In this paper, we seek to identify the characteristics of tasks where CoT reduces performance by drawing inspiration from cognitive psychology, focusing on six representative tasks from the psychological literature where deliberation hurts performance in humans. In three of these tasks, state-of-the-art models exhibit significant performance drop-offs with CoT (up to 36.3\% absolute accuracy for OpenAI o1-preview compared to GPT-4o), while in others, CoT effects are mixed, with positive, neutral, and negative changes. While models and humans do not exhibit perfectly parallel cognitive processes, considering cases where thinking has negative consequences for humans helps identify settings where it negatively impacts models. By connecting the literature on human verbal thinking and deliberation with evaluations of CoT, we offer a perspective for understanding the impact of inference-time reasoning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Conformal Prediction as Bayesian Quadrature

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques such as conformal prediction provide guarantees about the loss black-box models will incur even when the details of the models are hidden. However, such methods are based on frequentist probability, which unduly limits their applicability. We revisit the central aspects of conformal prediction from a Bayesian perspective and thereby illuminate the shortcomings of frequentist guarantees. We propose a practical alternative based on Bayesian quadrature that provides interpretable guarantees and offers a richer representation of the likely range of losses to be observed at test time.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

RLHS: Mitigating Misalignment in RLHF with Hindsight Simulation

While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has shown promise in aligning generative AI, we present empirical evidence that it can also cause severe, systematic misalignment. We hypothesize that this stems from evaluator feedback depending on downstream outcome predictions (foresight) that can be influenced by the AI's output, inducing Goodhart's law dynamics. We present a theoretical analysis showing that conditioning evaluator feedback on downstream observations (hindsight) inhibits this effect by decoupling the alignment signal from potentially compromised predictions--crucially, the result holds even if the observed outcomes are sampled from the AI's own world model. Building on this insight, we introduce Reinforcement Learning from Hindsight Simulation (RLHS), which presents plausible simulated outcomes to evaluators before eliciting feedback. We validate RLHS across three consultancy settings--marketplace interactions, restaurant recommendations, and online course advising--using both online (PPO) and offline (DPO) fine-tuning methods, and show that it substantially improves alignment over RLHF in experiments and human evaluations. We perform post-hoc benchmark evaluations on TruthfulQA, HaluEval, and TrustLLM, finding that even after single-task fine-tuning, RLHF misalignment persists, whereas RLHS consistently outperforms baselines and demonstrates robust alignment generalization. The project webpage and code are available at https://rl-hindsight.github.io.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Are Large Language Models Reliable AI Scientists? Assessing Reverse-Engineering of Black-Box Systems

Using AI to create autonomous researchers has the potential to accelerate scientific discovery. A prerequisite for this vision is understanding how well an AI model can identify the underlying structure of a black-box system from its behavior. In this paper, we explore how well a large language model (LLM) learns to identify a black-box function from passively observed versus actively collected data. We investigate the reverse-engineering capabilities of LLMs across three distinct types of black-box systems, each chosen to represent different problem domains where future autonomous AI researchers may have considerable impact: Program, Formal Language, and Math Equation. Through extensive experiments, we show that LLMs fail to extract information from observations, reaching a performance plateau that falls short of the ideal of Bayesian inference. However, we demonstrate that prompting LLMs to not only observe but also intervene -- actively querying the black-box with specific inputs to observe the resulting output -- improves performance by allowing LLMs to test edge cases and refine their beliefs. By providing the intervention data from one LLM to another, we show that this improvement is partly a result of engaging in the process of generating effective interventions, paralleling results in the literature on human learning. Further analysis reveals that engaging in intervention can help LLMs escape from two common failure modes: overcomplication, where the LLM falsely assumes prior knowledge about the black-box, and overlooking, where the LLM fails to incorporate observations. These insights provide practical guidance for helping LLMs more effectively reverse-engineer black-box systems, supporting their use in making new discoveries.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Steering Risk Preferences in Large Language Models by Aligning Behavioral and Neural Representations

Changing the behavior of large language models (LLMs) can be as straightforward as editing the Transformer's residual streams using appropriately constructed "steering vectors." These modifications to internal neural activations, a form of representation engineering, offer an effective and targeted means of influencing model behavior without retraining or fine-tuning the model. But how can such steering vectors be systematically identified? We propose a principled approach for uncovering steering vectors by aligning latent representations elicited through behavioral methods (specifically, Markov chain Monte Carlo with LLMs) with their neural counterparts. To evaluate this approach, we focus on extracting latent risk preferences from LLMs and steering their risk-related outputs using the aligned representations as steering vectors. We show that the resulting steering vectors successfully and reliably modulate LLM outputs in line with the targeted behavior.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Recovering Event Probabilities from Large Language Model Embeddings via Axiomatic Constraints

Rational decision-making under uncertainty requires coherent degrees of belief in events. However, event probabilities generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to exhibit incoherence, violating the axioms of probability theory. This raises the question of whether coherent event probabilities can be recovered from the embeddings used by the models. If so, those derived probabilities could be used as more accurate estimates in events involving uncertainty. To explore this question, we propose enforcing axiomatic constraints, such as the additive rule of probability theory, in the latent space learned by an extended variational autoencoder (VAE) applied to LLM embeddings. This approach enables event probabilities to naturally emerge in the latent space as the VAE learns to both reconstruct the original embeddings and predict the embeddings of semantically related events. We evaluate our method on complementary events (i.e., event A and its complement, event not-A), where the true probabilities of the two events must sum to 1. Experiment results on open-weight language models demonstrate that probabilities recovered from embeddings exhibit greater coherence than those directly reported by the corresponding models and align closely with the true probabilities.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Incoherent Probability Judgments in Large Language Models

Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) trained for next-word prediction have demonstrated remarkable proficiency at producing coherent text. But are they equally adept at forming coherent probability judgments? We use probabilistic identities and repeated judgments to assess the coherence of probability judgments made by LLMs. Our results show that the judgments produced by these models are often incoherent, displaying human-like systematic deviations from the rules of probability theory. Moreover, when prompted to judge the same event, the mean-variance relationship of probability judgments produced by LLMs shows an inverted-U-shaped like that seen in humans. We propose that these deviations from rationality can be explained by linking autoregressive LLMs to implicit Bayesian inference and drawing parallels with the Bayesian Sampler model of human probability judgments.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Language Models Trained to do Arithmetic Predict Human Risky and Intertemporal Choice

The observed similarities in the behavior of humans and Large Language Models (LLMs) have prompted researchers to consider the potential of using LLMs as models of human cognition. However, several significant challenges must be addressed before LLMs can be legitimately regarded as cognitive models. For instance, LLMs are trained on far more data than humans typically encounter, and may have been directly trained on human data in specific cognitive tasks or aligned with human preferences. Consequently, the origins of these behavioral similarities are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a novel way to enhance the utility of LLMs as cognitive models. This approach involves (i) leveraging computationally equivalent tasks that both an LLM and a rational agent need to master for solving a cognitive problem and (ii) examining the specific task distributions required for an LLM to exhibit human-like behaviors. We apply this approach to decision-making -- specifically risky and intertemporal choice -- where the key computationally equivalent task is the arithmetic of expected value calculations. We show that an LLM pretrained on an ecologically valid arithmetic dataset, which we call Arithmetic-GPT, predicts human behavior better than many traditional cognitive models. Pretraining LLMs on ecologically valid arithmetic datasets is sufficient to produce a strong correspondence between these models and human decision-making. Our results also suggest that LLMs used as cognitive models should be carefully investigated via ablation studies of the pretraining data.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Centaur: a foundation model of human cognition

Establishing a unified theory of cognition has been a major goal of psychology. While there have been previous attempts to instantiate such theories by building computational models, we currently do not have one model that captures the human mind in its entirety. A first step in this direction is to create a model that can predict human behavior in a wide range of settings. Here we introduce Centaur, a computational model that can predict and simulate human behavior in any experiment expressible in natural language. We derived Centaur by finetuning a state-of-the-art language model on a novel, large-scale data set called Psych-101. Psych-101 reaches an unprecedented scale, covering trial-by-trial data from over 60,000 participants performing over 10,000,000 choices in 160 experiments. Centaur not only captures the behavior of held-out participants better than existing cognitive models, but also generalizes to new cover stories, structural task modifications, and entirely new domains. Furthermore, we find that the model's internal representations become more aligned with human neural activity after finetuning. Taken together, our results demonstrate that it is possible to discover computational models that capture human behavior across a wide range of domains. We believe that such models provide tremendous potential for guiding the development of cognitive theories and present a case study to demonstrate this.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Identifying and Mitigating the Influence of the Prior Distribution in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) sometimes fail to respond appropriately to deterministic tasks -- such as counting or forming acronyms -- because the implicit prior distribution they have learned over sequences of tokens influences their responses. In this work, we show that, in at least some cases, LLMs actually compute the information needed to perform these tasks correctly, and we identify some interventions that can allow them to access this information to improve their performance. First, we show that simply prompting the language model to not rely on its prior knowledge leads to dramatic improvements in prior-dominated tasks. We then use mechanistic interpretability techniques to localize the prior within the LLM and manipulate the extent to which that prior influences its responses. Specifically, we show that it is possible to identify layers of the underlying neural network that correlate with the prior probability of a response and that lightweight finetuning of these layers with basic prompts on prior-dominated tasks achieves high performance on held-out answers. These results suggest that the information required to produce a correct response is contained within the representations of the problems formed by the models. Furthermore, we show that this finetuning is significantly more effective for prior-dominated tasks, and that the error after finetuning is no longer correlated with the prior. Our results suggest that it may be possible to define effective methods for manipulating the extent to which LLMs rely upon their priors in solving problems, potentially increasing their performance in settings where LLMs hallucinate for reasons related to the prior probability of token sequences.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Understanding the Limits of Vision Language Models Through the Lens of the Binding Problem

Recent work has documented striking heterogeneity in the performance of state-of-the-art vision language models (VLMs), including both multimodal language models and text-to-image models. These models are able to describe and generate a diverse array of complex, naturalistic images, yet they exhibit surprising failures on basic multi-object reasoning tasks -- such as counting, localization, and simple forms of visual analogy -- that humans perform with near perfect accuracy. To better understand this puzzling pattern of successes and failures, we turn to theoretical accounts of the binding problem in cognitive science and neuroscience, a fundamental problem that arises when a shared set of representational resources must be used to represent distinct entities (e.g., to represent multiple objects in an image), necessitating the use of serial processing to avoid interference. We find that many of the puzzling failures of state-of-the-art VLMs can be explained as arising due to the binding problem, and that these failure modes are strikingly similar to the limitations exhibited by rapid, feedforward processing in the human brain.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Localized Cultural Knowledge is Conserved and Controllable in Large Language Models

Just as humans display language patterns influenced by their native tongue when speaking new languages, LLMs often default to English-centric responses even when generating in other languages. Nevertheless, we observe that local cultural information persists within the models and can be readily activated for cultural customization. We first demonstrate that explicitly providing cultural context in prompts significantly improves the models' ability to generate culturally localized responses. We term the disparity in model performance with versus without explicit cultural context the explicit-implicit localization gap, indicating that while cultural knowledge exists within LLMs, it may not naturally surface in multilingual interactions if cultural context is not explicitly provided. Despite the explicit prompting benefit, however, the answers reduce in diversity and tend toward stereotypes. Second, we identify an explicit cultural customization vector, conserved across all non-English languages we explore, which enables LLMs to be steered from the synthetic English cultural world-model toward each non-English cultural world. Steered responses retain the diversity of implicit prompting and reduce stereotypes to dramatically improve the potential for customization. We discuss the implications of explicit cultural customization for understanding the conservation of alternative cultural world models within LLMs, and their controllable utility for translation, cultural customization, and the possibility of making the explicit implicit through soft control for expanded LLM function and appeal.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Predicting human decisions with behavioral theories and machine learning

Predicting human decisions under risk and uncertainty remains a fundamental challenge across disciplines. Existing models often struggle even in highly stylized tasks like choice between lotteries. We introduce BEAST Gradient Boosting (BEAST-GB), a hybrid model integrating behavioral theory (BEAST) with machine learning. We first present CPC18, a competition for predicting risky choice, in which BEAST-GB won. Then, using two large datasets, we demonstrate BEAST-GB predicts more accurately than neural networks trained on extensive data and dozens of existing behavioral models. BEAST-GB also generalizes robustly across unseen experimental contexts, surpassing direct empirical generalization, and helps refine and improve the behavioral theory itself. Our analyses highlight the potential of anchoring predictions on behavioral theory even in data-rich settings and even when the theory alone falters. Our results underscore how integrating machine learning with theoretical frameworks, especially those-like BEAST-designed for prediction, can improve our ability to predict and understand human behavior.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Large Language Models Assume People are More Rational than We Really are

In order for AI systems to communicate effectively with people, they must understand how we make decisions. However, people's decisions are not always rational, so the implicit internal models of human decision-making in Large Language Models (LLMs) must account for this. Previous empirical evidence seems to suggest that these implicit models are accurate -- LLMs offer believable proxies of human behavior, acting how we expect humans would in everyday interactions. However, by comparing LLM behavior and predictions to a large dataset of human decisions, we find that this is actually not the case: when both simulating and predicting people's choices, a suite of cutting-edge LLMs (GPT-4o & 4-Turbo, Llama-3-8B & 70B, Claude 3 Opus) assume that people are more rational than we really are. Specifically, these models deviate from human behavior and align more closely with a classic model of rational choice -- expected value theory. Interestingly, people also tend to assume that other people are rational when interpreting their behavior. As a consequence, when we compare the inferences that LLMs and people draw from the decisions of others using another psychological dataset, we find that these inferences are highly correlated. Thus, the implicit decision-making models of LLMs appear to be aligned with the human expectation that other people will act rationally, rather than with how people actually act.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Teasing Apart Architecture and Initial Weights as Sources of Inductive Bias in Neural Networks

Artificial neural networks can acquire many aspects of human knowledge from data, making them promising as models of human learning. But what those networks can learn depends upon their inductive biases -- the factors other than the data that influence the solutions they discover -- and the inductive biases of neural networks remain poorly understood, limiting our ability to draw conclusions about human learning from the performance of these systems. Cognitive scientists and machine learning researchers often focus on the architecture of a neural network as a source of inductive bias. In this paper we explore the impact of another source of inductive bias -- the initial weights of the network -- using meta-learning as a tool for finding initial weights that are adapted for specific problems. We evaluate four widely-used architectures -- MLPs, CNNs, LSTMs, and Transformers -- by meta-training 430 different models across three tasks requiring different biases and forms of generalization. We find that meta-learning can substantially reduce or entirely eliminate performance differences across architectures and data representations, suggesting that these factors may be less important as sources of inductive bias than is typically assumed. When differences are present, architectures and data representations that perform well without meta-learning tend to meta-train more effectively. Moreover, all architectures generalize poorly on problems that are far from their meta-training experience, underscoring the need for stronger inductive biases for robust generalization.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

MacGyver: Are Large Language Models Creative Problem Solvers?

We explore the creative problem-solving capabilities of modern LLMs in a novel constrained setting. To this end, we create MACGYVER, an automatically generated dataset consisting of over 1,600 real-world problems deliberately designed to trigger innovative usage of objects and necessitate out-of-the-box thinking. We then present our collection to both LLMs and humans to compare and contrast their problem-solving abilities. MACGYVER is challenging for both groups, but in unique and complementary ways. For instance, humans excel in tasks they are familiar with but struggle with domain-specific knowledge, leading to a higher variance. In contrast, LLMs, exposed to a variety of specialized knowledge, attempt broader problems but fail by proposing physically-infeasible actions. Finally, we provide a detailed error analysis of LLMs, and demonstrate the potential of enhancing their problem-solving ability with novel prompting techniques such as iterative step-wise reflection and divergent-convergent thinking. This work (1) introduces a fresh arena for intelligent agents focusing on intricate aspects of physical reasoning, planning, and unconventional thinking, which supplements the existing spectrum of machine intelligence; and (2) provides insight into the constrained problem-solving capabilities of both humans and AI.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Characterizing the Interaction of Cultural Evolution Mechanisms in Experimental Social Networks

Understanding how cognitive and social mechanisms shape the evolution of complex artifacts such as songs is central to cultural evolution research. Social network topology (what artifacts are available?), selection (which are chosen?), and reproduction (how are they copied?) have all been proposed as key influencing factors. However, prior research has rarely studied them together due to methodological challenges. We address this gap through a controlled naturalistic paradigm whereby participants (N=2,404) are placed in networks and are asked to iteratively choose and sing back melodies from their neighbors. We show that this setting yields melodies that are more complex and more pleasant than those found in the more-studied linear transmission setting, and exhibits robust differences across topologies. Crucially, these differences are diminished when selection or reproduction bias are eliminated, suggesting an interaction between mechanisms. These findings shed light on the interplay of mechanisms underlying the evolution of cultural artifacts.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Representational Alignment Supports Effective Machine Teaching

A good teacher should not only be knowledgeable, but should also be able to communicate in a way that the student understands -- to share the student's representation of the world. In this work, we introduce a new controlled experimental setting, GRADE, to study pedagogy and representational alignment. We use GRADE through a series of machine-machine and machine-human teaching experiments to characterize a utility curve defining a relationship between representational alignment, teacher expertise, and student learning outcomes. We find that improved representational alignment with a student improves student learning outcomes (i.e., task accuracy), but that this effect is moderated by the size and representational diversity of the class being taught. We use these insights to design a preliminary classroom matching procedure, GRADE-Match, that optimizes the assignment of students to teachers. When designing machine teachers, our results suggest that it is important to focus not only on accuracy, but also on representational alignment with human learners.

cs.LG↗