arXiv subjects

Tian Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Tian Zhou.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Less is more: Embracing sparsity and interpolation with Esiformer for time series forecasting

Time series forecasting has played a significant role in many practical fields. But time series data generated from real-world applications always exhibits high variance and lots of noise, which makes it difficult to capture the inherent periodic patterns of the data, hurting the prediction accuracy significantly. To address this issue, we propose the Esiformer, which apply interpolation on the original data, decreasing the overall variance of the data and alleviating the influence of noise. What's more, we enhanced the vanilla transformer with a robust Sparse FFN. It can enhance the representation ability of the model effectively, and maintain the excellent robustness, avoiding the risk of overfitting compared with the vanilla implementation. Through evaluations on challenging real-world datasets, our method outperforms leading model PatchTST, reducing MSE by 6.5% and MAE by 5.8% in multivariate time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/yyg1282142265/Esiformer/tree/main.

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arXiv2024

S$^3$Attention: Improving Long Sequence Attention with Smoothed Skeleton Sketching

Attention based models have achieved many remarkable breakthroughs in numerous applications. However, the quadratic complexity of Attention makes the vanilla Attention based models hard to apply to long sequence tasks. Various improved Attention structures are proposed to reduce the computation cost by inducing low rankness and approximating the whole sequence by sub-sequences. The most challenging part of those approaches is maintaining the proper balance between information preservation and computation reduction: the longer sub-sequences used, the better information is preserved, but at the price of introducing more noise and computational costs. In this paper, we propose a smoothed skeleton sketching based Attention structure, coined S$^3$Attention, which significantly improves upon the previous attempts to negotiate this trade-off. S$^3$Attention has two mechanisms to effectively minimize the impact of noise while keeping the linear complexity to the sequence length: a smoothing block to mix information over long sequences and a matrix sketching method that simultaneously selects columns and rows from the input matrix. We verify the effectiveness of S$^3$Attention both theoretically and empirically. Extensive studies over Long Range Arena (LRA) datasets and six time-series forecasting show that S$^3$Attention significantly outperforms both vanilla Attention and other state-of-the-art variants of Attention structures.

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arXiv2024

CARD: Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

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arXiv2024

Attention as Robust Representation for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is essential for many practical applications, with the adoption of transformer-based models on the rise due to their impressive performance in NLP and CV. Transformers' key feature, the attention mechanism, dynamically fusing embeddings to enhance data representation, often relegating attention weights to a byproduct role. Yet, time series data, characterized by noise and non-stationarity, poses significant forecasting challenges. Our approach elevates attention weights as the primary representation for time series, capitalizing on the temporal relationships among data points to improve forecasting accuracy. Our study shows that an attention map, structured using global landmarks and local windows, acts as a robust kernel representation for data points, withstanding noise and shifts in distribution. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art models, reducing mean squared error (MSE) in multivariate time series forecasting by a notable 3.6% without altering the core neural network architecture. It serves as a versatile component that can readily replace recent patching based embedding schemes in transformer-based models, boosting their performance.

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arXiv2024

FusionSF: Fuse Heterogeneous Modalities in a Vector Quantized Framework for Robust Solar Power Forecasting

Accurate solar power forecasting is crucial to integrate photovoltaic plants into the electric grid, schedule and secure the power grid safety. This problem becomes more demanding for those newly installed solar plants which lack sufficient data. Current research predominantly relies on historical solar power data or numerical weather prediction in a single-modality format, ignoring the complementary information provided in different modalities. In this paper, we propose a multi-modality fusion framework to integrate historical power data, numerical weather prediction, and satellite images, significantly improving forecast performance. We introduce a vector quantized framework that aligns modalities with varying information densities, striking a balance between integrating sufficient information and averting model overfitting. Our framework demonstrates strong zero-shot forecasting capability, which is especially useful for those newly installed plants. Moreover, we collect and release a multi-modal solar power (MMSP) dataset from real-world plants to further promote the research of multi-modal solar forecasting algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that our model not only operates with robustness but also boosts accuracy in both zero-shot forecasting and scenarios rich with training data, surpassing leading models. We have incorporated it into our eForecaster platform and deployed it for more than 300 solar plants with a capacity of over 15GW.

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arXiv2024

Sparse-VQ Transformer: An FFN-Free Framework with Vector Quantization for Enhanced Time Series Forecasting

Time series analysis is vital for numerous applications, and transformers have become increasingly prominent in this domain. Leading methods customize the transformer architecture from NLP and CV, utilizing a patching technique to convert continuous signals into segments. Yet, time series data are uniquely challenging due to significant distribution shifts and intrinsic noise levels. To address these two challenges,we introduce the Sparse Vector Quantized FFN-Free Transformer (Sparse-VQ). Our methodology capitalizes on a sparse vector quantization technique coupled with Reverse Instance Normalization (RevIN) to reduce noise impact and capture sufficient statistics for forecasting, serving as an alternative to the Feed-Forward layer (FFN) in the transformer architecture. Our FFN-free approach trims the parameter count, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing overfitting. Through evaluations across ten benchmark datasets, including the newly introduced CAISO dataset, Sparse-VQ surpasses leading models with a 7.84% and 4.17% decrease in MAE for univariate and multivariate time series forecasting, respectively. Moreover, it can be seamlessly integrated with existing transformer-based models to elevate their performance.

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arXiv2023

Model-free Test Time Adaptation for Out-Of-Distribution Detection

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for the reliability of ML models. Most existing methods for OOD detection learn a fixed decision criterion from a given in-distribution dataset and apply it universally to decide if a data point is OOD. Recent work~\cite{fang2022is} shows that given only in-distribution data, it is impossible to reliably detect OOD data without extra assumptions. Motivated by the theoretical result and recent exploration of test-time adaptation methods, we propose a Non-Parametric Test Time \textbf{Ada}ptation framework for \textbf{O}ut-Of-\textbf{D}istribution \textbf{D}etection (\abbr). Unlike conventional methods, \abbr utilizes online test samples for model adaptation during testing, enhancing adaptability to changing data distributions. The framework incorporates detected OOD instances into decision-making, reducing false positive rates, particularly when ID and OOD distributions overlap significantly. We demonstrate the effectiveness of \abbr through comprehensive experiments on multiple OOD detection benchmarks, extensive empirical studies show that \abbr significantly improves the performance of OOD detection over state-of-the-art methods. Specifically, \abbr reduces the false positive rate (FPR95) by $23.23\%$ on the CIFAR-10 benchmarks and $38\%$ on the ImageNet-1k benchmarks compared to the advanced methods. Lastly, we theoretically verify the effectiveness of \abbr.

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arXiv2023

One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM

Although we have witnessed great success of pre-trained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV), limited progress has been made for general time series analysis. Unlike NLP and CV where a unified model can be used to perform different tasks, specially designed approach still dominates in each time series analysis task such as classification, anomaly detection, forecasting, and few-shot learning. The main challenge that blocks the development of pre-trained model for time series analysis is the lack of a large amount of data for training. In this work, we address this challenge by leveraging language or CV models, pre-trained from billions of tokens, for time series analysis. Specifically, we refrain from altering the self-attention and feedforward layers of the residual blocks in the pre-trained language or image model. This model, known as the Frozen Pretrained Transformer (FPT), is evaluated through fine-tuning on all major types of tasks involving time series. Our results demonstrate that pre-trained models on natural language or images can lead to a comparable or state-of-the-art performance in all main time series analysis tasks, as illustrated in Figure 1. We also found both theoretically and empirically that the self-attention module behaviors similarly to principle component analysis (PCA), an observation that helps explains how transformer bridges the domain gap and a crucial step towards understanding the universality of a pre-trained transformer.The code is publicly available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/One_Fits_All.

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arXiv2023

DCdetector: Dual Attention Contrastive Representation Learning for Time Series Anomaly Detection

Time series anomaly detection is critical for a wide range of applications. It aims to identify deviant samples from the normal sample distribution in time series. The most fundamental challenge for this task is to learn a representation map that enables effective discrimination of anomalies. Reconstruction-based methods still dominate, but the representation learning with anomalies might hurt the performance with its large abnormal loss. On the other hand, contrastive learning aims to find a representation that can clearly distinguish any instance from the others, which can bring a more natural and promising representation for time series anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose DCdetector, a multi-scale dual attention contrastive representation learning model. DCdetector utilizes a novel dual attention asymmetric design to create the permutated environment and pure contrastive loss to guide the learning process, thus learning a permutation invariant representation with superior discrimination abilities. Extensive experiments show that DCdetector achieves state-of-the-art results on multiple time series anomaly detection benchmark datasets. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/KDD2023-DCdetector.

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arXiv2023

GCformer: An Efficient Framework for Accurate and Scalable Long-Term Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Transformer-based models have emerged as promising tools for time series forecasting. However, these model cannot make accurate prediction for long input time series. On the one hand, they failed to capture global dependencies within time series data. On the other hand, the long input sequence usually leads to large model size and high time complexity. To address these limitations, we present GCformer, which combines a structured global convolutional branch for processing long input sequences with a local Transformer-based branch for capturing short, recent signals. A cohesive framework for a global convolution kernel has been introduced, utilizing three distinct parameterization methods. The selected structured convolutional kernel in the global branch has been specifically crafted with sublinear complexity, thereby allowing for the efficient and effective processing of lengthy and noisy input signals. Empirical studies on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that GCformer outperforms state-of-the-art methods, reducing MSE error in multivariate time series benchmarks by 4.38% and model parameters by 61.92%. In particular, the global convolutional branch can serve as a plug-in block to enhance the performance of other models, with an average improvement of 31.93\%, including various recently published Transformer-based models. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/zyj-111/GCformer.

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arXiv2023

SaDI: A Self-adaptive Decomposed Interpretable Framework for Electric Load Forecasting under Extreme Events

Accurate prediction of electric load is crucial in power grid planning and management. In this paper, we solve the electric load forecasting problem under extreme events such as scorching heats. One challenge for accurate forecasting is the lack of training samples under extreme conditions. Also load usually changes dramatically in these extreme conditions, which calls for interpretable model to make better decisions. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting framework, named Self-adaptive Decomposed Interpretable framework~(SaDI), which ensembles long-term trend, short-term trend, and period modelings to capture temporal characteristics in different components. The external variable triggered loss is proposed for the imbalanced learning under extreme events. Furthermore, Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is employed in the framework for desirable interpretability. The experiments on both Central China electric load and public energy meters from buildings show that the proposed SaDI framework achieves average 22.14% improvement compared with the current state-of-the-art algorithms in forecasting under extreme events in terms of daily mean of normalized RMSE. Code, Public datasets, and Appendix are available at: https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.9696980.v1 .

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arXiv2023

Transformers in Time Series: A Survey

Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also triggered great interest in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of Transformers, the ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions is especially attractive for time series modeling, leading to exciting progress in various time series applications. In this paper, we systematically review Transformer schemes for time series modeling by highlighting their strengths as well as limitations. In particular, we examine the development of time series Transformers in two perspectives. From the perspective of network structure, we summarize the adaptations and modifications that have been made to Transformers in order to accommodate the challenges in time series analysis. From the perspective of applications, we categorize time series Transformers based on common tasks including forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification. Empirically, we perform robust analysis, model size analysis, and seasonal-trend decomposition analysis to study how Transformers perform in time series. Finally, we discuss and suggest future directions to provide useful research guidance. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first work to comprehensively and systematically summarize the recent advances of Transformers for modeling time series data. We hope this survey will ignite further research interests in time series Transformers.

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arXiv2023

On the analytic extension of regular rotating black holes

We hereby focus on the analytic geodesic extension of several regular rotating black holes (RRBHs) obtained throughout the Newman-Janis algorithm starting from some popular spherically symmetric regular black holes. It turns out that if the metric is not an even function of Boyer-Lindquist radial coordinate r, similarly to the Kerr spacetime, the metric has to be extended to negative values of r to ensure the analyticity of the geodesic equations (and in turn of the geodesics). Therefore, some of the extended RRBHs considered in this paper, such as the rotating Hayward black hole, are geodetically incomplete because they are singular somewhere for r < 0, and non-analytic at the ring located in $(r = 0, {θ= π/2})$. Conversely, other spacetimes, like nonlocal black holes, can be analytically extended to negative r. However, the real issue shows up at the ring, where, unfortunately, all the RRBHs studied in this paper fail to be regular. Indeed, at the ring, the Kretschmann invariant is finite but nonanalytic, while the higher derivative curvature invariants are divergent. In order to avoid such catastrophe, we propose a modification of the RRBHs in which the angular momentum is promoted to a function of the radial coordinate. According to our proposal, the angular momentum vanishes for $r\rightarrow 0$ and the ring shrinks to a point. Therefore, the regularity properties of the regular spherically symmetric black holes are recovered for $r\rightarrow 0$.

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arXiv2023

TFAD: A Decomposition Time Series Anomaly Detection Architecture with Time-Frequency Analysis

Time series anomaly detection is a challenging problem due to the complex temporal dependencies and the limited label data. Although some algorithms including both traditional and deep models have been proposed, most of them mainly focus on time-domain modeling, and do not fully utilize the information in the frequency domain of the time series data. In this paper, we propose a Time-Frequency analysis based time series Anomaly Detection model, or TFAD for short, to exploit both time and frequency domains for performance improvement. Besides, we incorporate time series decomposition and data augmentation mechanisms in the designed time-frequency architecture to further boost the abilities of performance and interpretability. Empirical studies on widely used benchmark datasets show that our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance in univariate and multivariate time series anomaly detection tasks. Code is provided at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/CIKM22-TFAD.

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arXiv2023

Geodesic incompleteness of some popular regular black holes

Throughout the study of the geodesics of some popular spherically symmetric regular black holes, we hereby prove that the analytically extended Hayward black hole is geodetically incomplete. The simplest extension of the Culetu-Simpson-Visser's non-analytic smooth black hole is also geodetically incomplete, with the exception of the antipodal continuation of the radial geodesics. However, the huge ambiguity in the extension of non analytic spacetimes is tantamount of geodesic incompleteness and such spacetimes do not solve the singularity issue unless at least all the extensions turn out to be complete. Hence, we provide several mere modifications of such spacetimes in order to make them geodetically complete in all possible extensions beyond r=0.

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arXiv2022

FiLM: Frequency improved Legendre Memory Model for Long-term Time Series Forecasting

Recent studies have shown that deep learning models such as RNNs and Transformers have brought significant performance gains for long-term forecasting of time series because they effectively utilize historical information. We found, however, that there is still great room for improvement in how to preserve historical information in neural networks while avoiding overfitting to noise presented in the history. Addressing this allows better utilization of the capabilities of deep learning models. To this end, we design a \textbf{F}requency \textbf{i}mproved \textbf{L}egendre \textbf{M}emory model, or {\bf FiLM}: it applies Legendre Polynomials projections to approximate historical information, uses Fourier projection to remove noise, and adds a low-rank approximation to speed up computation. Our empirical studies show that the proposed FiLM significantly improves the accuracy of state-of-the-art models in multivariate and univariate long-term forecasting by (\textbf{20.3\%}, \textbf{22.6\%}), respectively. We also demonstrate that the representation module developed in this work can be used as a general plug-in to improve the long-term prediction performance of other deep learning modules. Code is available at https://github.com/tianzhou2011/FiLM/

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arXiv2022

TreeDRNet:A Robust Deep Model for Long Term Time Series Forecasting

Various deep learning models, especially some latest Transformer-based approaches, have greatly improved the state-of-art performance for long-term time series forecasting.However, those transformer-based models suffer a severe deterioration performance with prolonged input length, which prohibits them from using extended historical info.Moreover, these methods tend to handle complex examples in long-term forecasting with increased model complexity, which often leads to a significant increase in computation and less robustness in performance(e.g., overfitting). We propose a novel neural network architecture, called TreeDRNet, for more effective long-term forecasting. Inspired by robust regression, we introduce doubly residual link structure to make prediction more robust.Built upon Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, we explicitly introduce feature selection, model ensemble, and a tree structure to further utilize the extended input sequence, which improves the robustness and representation power of TreeDRNet. Unlike previous deep models for sequential forecasting work, TreeDRNet is built entirely on multilayer perceptron and thus enjoys high computational efficiency. Our extensive empirical studies show that TreeDRNet is significantly more effective than state-of-the-art methods, reducing prediction errors by 20% to 40% for multivariate time series. In particular, TreeDRNet is over 10 times more efficient than transformer-based methods. The code will be released soon.

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arXiv2022

FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting

Although Transformer-based methods have significantly improved state-of-the-art results for long-term series forecasting, they are not only computationally expensive but more importantly, are unable to capture the global view of time series (e.g. overall trend). To address these problems, we propose to combine Transformer with the seasonal-trend decomposition method, in which the decomposition method captures the global profile of time series while Transformers capture more detailed structures. To further enhance the performance of Transformer for long-term prediction, we exploit the fact that most time series tend to have a sparse representation in well-known basis such as Fourier transform, and develop a frequency enhanced Transformer. Besides being more effective, the proposed method, termed as Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer ({\bf FEDformer}), is more efficient than standard Transformer with a linear complexity to the sequence length. Our empirical studies with six benchmark datasets show that compared with state-of-the-art methods, FEDformer can reduce prediction error by $14.8\%$ and $22.6\%$ for multivariate and univariate time series, respectively. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/MAZiqing/FEDformer.

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