arXiv subjects

Tim Weninger

Publications and source records attributed to Tim Weninger.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Attributed Graph Modeling with Vertex Replacement Grammars

Recent work at the intersection of formal language theory and graph theory has explored graph grammars for graph modeling. However, existing models and formalisms can only operate on homogeneous (i.e., untyped or unattributed) graphs. We relax this restriction and introduce the Attributed Vertex Replacement Grammar (AVRG), which can be efficiently extracted from heterogeneous (i.e., typed, colored, or attributed) graphs. Unlike current state-of-the-art methods, which train enormous models over complicated deep neural architectures, the AVRG model is unsupervised and interpretable. It is based on context-free string grammars and works by encoding graph rewriting rules into a graph grammar containing graphlets and instructions on how they fit together. We show that the AVRG can encode succinct models of input graphs yet faithfully preserve their structure and assortativity properties. Experiments on large real-world datasets show that graphs generated from the AVRG model exhibit substructures and attribute configurations that match those found in the input networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Higher Order Imprecise Probabilities and Statistical Testing

We generalize standard credal set models for imprecise probabilities to include higher order credal sets -- confidences about confidences. In doing so, we specify how an agent's higher order confidences (credal sets) update upon observing an event. Our model begins to address standard issues with imprecise probability models, like Dilation and Belief Inertia. We conjecture that when higher order credal sets contain all possible probability functions, then in the limiting case the highest order confidences converge to form a uniform distribution over the first order credal set, where we define uniformity in terms of the statistical distance metric (total variation distance). Finite simulation supports the conjecture. We further suggest that this convergence presents the total-variation-uniform distribution as a natural, privileged prior for statistical hypothesis testing.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Pilot Study Suggests Online Media Literacy Programming Reduces Belief in False News in Indonesia

Amidst the threat of digital misinformation, we offer a pilot study regarding the efficacy of an online social media literacy campaign aimed at empowering individuals in Indonesia with skills to help them identify misinformation. We found that users who engaged with our online training materials and educational videos were more likely to identify misinformation than those in our control group (total $N$=1000). Given the promising results of our preliminary study, we plan to expand efforts in this area, and build upon lessons learned from this pilot study.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Posthoc Verification and the Fallibility of the Ground Truth

Classifiers commonly make use of pre-annotated datasets, wherein a model is evaluated by pre-defined metrics on a held-out test set typically made of human-annotated labels. Metrics used in these evaluations are tied to the availability of well-defined ground truth labels, and these metrics typically do not allow for inexact matches. These noisy ground truth labels and strict evaluation metrics may compromise the validity and realism of evaluation results. In the present work, we discuss these concerns and conduct a systematic posthoc verification experiment on the entity linking (EL) task. Unlike traditional methodologies, which asks annotators to provide free-form annotations, we ask annotators to verify the correctness of annotations after the fact (i.e., posthoc). Compared to pre-annotation evaluation, state-of-the-art EL models performed extremely well according to the posthoc evaluation methodology. Posthoc validation also permits the validation of the ground truth dataset. Surprisingly, we find predictions from EL models had a similar or higher verification rate than the ground truth. We conclude with a discussion on these findings and recommendations for future evaluations.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Reddit Entity Linking Dataset

We introduce and make publicly available an entity linking dataset from Reddit that contains 17,316 linked entities, each annotated by three human annotators and then grouped into Gold, Silver, and Bronze to indicate inter-annotator agreement. We analyze the different errors and disagreements made by annotators and suggest three types of corrections to the raw data. Finally, we tested existing entity linking models that are trained and tuned on text from non-social media datasets. We find that, although these existing entity linking models perform very well on their original datasets, they perform poorly on this social media dataset. We also show that the majority of these errors can be attributed to poor performance on the mention detection subtask. These results indicate the need for better entity linking models that can be applied to the enormous amount of social media text.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Competition Dynamics in the Meme Ecosystem

The creation and sharing of memes is a common modality of online social interactions. The goal of the present work is to better understand the collective dynamics of memes in this accelerating and competitive environment. By taking an ecological perspective and tracking the meme-text from 352 popular memes over the entirety of Reddit, we are able to show that the frequency of memes has scaled almost exactly with the total amount of content created over the past decade. This means that as more data is posted, an equal proportion of memes are posted. One consequence of limited human attention in the face of a growing number of memes is that the diversity of these memes has decreased at the community level, albeit slightly, in the same period. Another consequence is that the average lifespan of a meme has decreased dramatically, which is further evidence of an increase in competition and a decreasing collective attention span.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Analysis of Moral Judgement on Reddit

Moral outrage has become synonymous with social media in recent years. However, the preponderance of academic analysis on social media websites has focused on hate speech and misinformation. This paper focuses on analyzing moral judgements rendered on social media by capturing the moral judgements that are passed in the subreddit /r/AmITheAsshole on Reddit. Using the labels associated with each judgement we train a classifier that can take a comment and determine whether it judges the user who made the original post to have positive or negative moral valence. Then, we use this classifier to investigate an assortment of website traits surrounding moral judgements in ten other subreddits, including where negative moral users like to post and their posting patterns. Our findings also indicate that posts that are judged in a positive manner will score higher.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Behavior Change in Response to Subreddit Bans and External Events

As more people flock to social media to connect with others and form virtual communities, it is important to research how members of these groups interact to understand human behavior on the Web. In response to an increase in hate speech, harassment and other antisocial behaviors, many social media companies have implemented different content and user moderation policies. On Reddit, for example, communities, i.e, subreddits, are occasionally banned for violating these policies. We study the effect of these regulatory actions as well as when a community experiences a significant external event like a political election or a market crash. Overall, we find that most subreddit bans prompt a small, but statistically significant, number of active users to leave the platform; the effect of external events varies with the type of event. We conclude with a discussion on the effectiveness of the bans and wider implications for the online content moderation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

HetSeq: Distributed GPU Training on Heterogeneous Infrastructure

Modern deep learning systems like PyTorch and Tensorflow are able to train enormous models with billions (or trillions) of parameters on a distributed infrastructure. These systems require that the internal nodes have the same memory capacity and compute performance. Unfortunately, most organizations, especially universities, have a piecemeal approach to purchasing computer systems resulting in a heterogeneous infrastructure, which cannot be used to compute large models. The present work describes HetSeq, a software package adapted from the popular PyTorch package that provides the capability to train large neural network models on heterogeneous infrastructure. Experiments with transformer translation and BERT language model shows that HetSeq scales over heterogeneous systems. HetSeq can be easily extended to other models like image classification. Package with supported document is publicly available at https://github.com/yifding/hetseq.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2020

Automatic Discovery of Political Meme Genres with Diverse Appearances

Forms of human communication are not static -- we expect some evolution in the way information is conveyed over time because of advances in technology. One example of this phenomenon is the image-based meme, which has emerged as a dominant form of political messaging in the past decade. While originally used to spread jokes on social media, memes are now having an outsized impact on public perception of world events. A significant challenge in automatic meme analysis has been the development of a strategy to match memes from within a single genre when the appearances of the images vary. Such variation is especially common in memes exhibiting mimicry. For example, when voters perform a common hand gesture to signal their support for a candidate. In this paper we introduce a scalable automated visual recognition pipeline for discovering political meme genres of diverse appearance. This pipeline can ingest meme images from a social network, apply computer vision-based techniques to extract local features and index new images into a database, and then organize the memes into related genres. To validate this approach, we perform a large case study on the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election using a new dataset of over two million images collected from Twitter and Instagram. Results show that this approach can discover new meme genres with visually diverse images that share common stylistic elements, paving the way forward for further work in semantic analysis and content attribution.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Library Adoption Dynamics in Software Teams

When a group of people strives to understand new information, struggle ensues as various ideas compete for attention. Steep learning curves are surmounted as teams learn together. To understand how these team dynamics play out in software development, we explore Git logs, which provide a complete change history of software repositories. In these repositories, we observe code additions, which represent successfully implemented ideas, and code deletions, which represent ideas that have failed or been superseded. By examining the patterns between these commit types, we can begin to understand how teams adopt new information. We specifically study what happens after a software library is adopted by a project, i.e. when a library is used for the first time in the project. We find that a variety of factors, including team size, library popularity, and prevalence on Stack Overflow are associated with how quickly teams learn and successfully adopt new software libraries.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Representation Learning in Heterogeneous Professional Social Networks with Ambiguous Social Connections

Network representations have been shown to improve performance within a variety of tasks, including classification, clustering, and link prediction. However, most models either focus on moderate-sized, homogeneous networks or require a significant amount of auxiliary input to be provided by the user. Moreover, few works have studied network representations in real-world heterogeneous social networks with ambiguous social connections and are often incomplete. In the present work, we investigate the problem of learning low-dimensional node representations in heterogeneous professional social networks (HPSNs), which are incomplete and have ambiguous social connections. We present a general heterogeneous network representation learning model called Star2Vec that learns entity and person embeddings jointly using a social connection strength-aware biased random walk combined with a node-structure expansion function. Experiments on LinkedIn's Economic Graph and publicly available snapshots of Facebook's network show that Star2Vec outperforms existing methods on members' industry and social circle classification, skill and title clustering, and member-entity link predictions. We also conducted large-scale case studies to demonstrate practical applications of the Star2Vec embeddings trained on LinkedIn's Economic Graph such as next career move, alternative career suggestions, and general entity similarity searches.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Modelling Online Comment Threads from their Start

The social Web is a widely used platform for online discussion. Across social media, users can start discussions by posting a topical image, url, or message. Upon seeing this initial post, other users may add their own comments to the post, or to another user's comment. The resulting online discourse produces a comment thread, which constitutes an enormous portion of modern online communication. Comment threads are often viewed as trees: nodes represent the post and its comments, while directed edges represent reply-to relationships. The goal of the present work is to predict the size and shape of these comment threads. Existing models do this by observing the first several comments and then fitting a predictive model. However, most comment threads are relatively small, and waiting for data to materialize runs counter to the goal of the prediction task. We therefore introduce the Comment Thread Prediction Model (CTPM) that accurately predicts the size and shape of a comment thread using only the text of the initial post, allowing for the prediction of new posts without observable comments. We find that the CTPM significantly outperforms existing models and competitive baselines on thousands of Reddit discussions from nine varied subreddits, particularly for new posts.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Towards Interpretable Graph Modeling with Vertex Replacement Grammars

An enormous amount of real-world data exists in the form of graphs. Oftentimes, interesting patterns that describe the complex dynamics of these graphs are captured in the form of frequently reoccurring substructures. Recent work at the intersection of formal language theory and graph theory has explored the use of graph grammars for graph modeling and pattern mining. However, existing formulations do not extract meaningful and easily interpretable patterns from the data. The present work addresses this limitation by extracting a special type of vertex replacement grammar, which we call a KT grammar, according to the Minimum Description Length (MDL) heuristic. In experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that KT-grammars can be efficiently extracted from a graph and that these grammars encode meaningful patterns that represent the dynamics of the real-world system.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Modeling Graphs with Vertex Replacement Grammars

One of the principal goals of graph modeling is to capture the building blocks of network data in order to study various physical and natural phenomena. Recent work at the intersection of formal language theory and graph theory has explored the use of graph grammars for graph modeling. However, existing graph grammar formalisms, like Hyperedge Replacement Grammars, can only operate on small tree-like graphs. The present work relaxes this restriction by revising a different graph grammar formalism called Vertex Replacement Grammars (VRGs). We show that a variant of the VRG called Clustering-based Node Replacement Grammar (CNRG) can be efficiently extracted from many hierarchical clusterings of a graph. We show that CNRGs encode a succinct model of the graph, yet faithfully preserves the structure of the original graph. In experiments on large real-world datasets, we show that graphs generated from the CNRG model exhibit a diverse range of properties that are similar to those found in the original networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Massive Multi-Agent Data-Driven Simulations of the GitHub Ecosystem

Simulating and predicting planetary-scale techno-social systems poses heavy computational and modeling challenges. The DARPA SocialSim program set the challenge to model the evolution of GitHub, a large collaborative software-development ecosystem, using massive multi-agent simulations. We describe our best performing models and our agent-based simulation framework, which we are currently extending to allow simulating other planetary-scale techno-social systems. The challenge problem measured participant's ability, given 30 months of meta-data on user activity on GitHub, to predict the next months' activity as measured by a broad range of metrics applied to ground truth, using agent-based simulation. The challenge required scaling to a simulation of roughly 3 million agents producing a combined 30 million actions, acting on 6 million repositories with commodity hardware. It was also important to use the data optimally to predict the agent's next moves. We describe the agent framework and the data analysis employed by one of the winning teams in the challenge. Six different agent models were tested based on a variety of machine learning and statistical methods. While no single method proved the most accurate on every metric, the broadly most successful sampled from a stationary probability distribution of actions and repositories for each agent. Two reasons for the success of these agents were their use of a distinct characterization of each agent, and that GitHub users change their behavior relatively slowly.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2019

Dynamics of Team Library Adoptions: An Exploration of GitHub Commit Logs

When a group of people strives to understand new information, struggle ensues as various ideas compete for attention. Steep learning curves are surmounted as teams learn together. To understand how these team dynamics play out in software development, we explore Git logs, which provide a complete change history of software repositories. In these repositories, we observe code additions, which represent successfully implemented ideas, and code deletions, which represent ideas that have failed or been superseded. By examining the patterns between these commit types, we can begin to understand how teams adopt new information. We specifically study what happens after a software library is adopted by a project, i.e., when a library is used for the first time in the project. We find that a variety of factors, including team size, library popularity, and prevalence on Stack Overflow are associated with how quickly teams learn and successfully adopt new software libraries.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Improved Forecasting of Cryptocurrency Price using Social Signals

Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, which are a novel disruptive technology with significant political and economic implications. In this paper we leverage and contrast the predictive power of social signals, specifically user behavior and communication patterns, from multiple social platforms GitHub and Reddit to forecast prices for three cyptocurrencies with high developer and community interest - Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. We evaluate the performance of neural network models that rely on long short-term memory units (LSTMs) trained on historical price data and social data against price only LSTMs and baseline autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, commonly used to predict stock prices. Our results not only demonstrate that social signals reduce error when forecasting daily coin price, but also show that the language used in comments within the official communities on Reddit (r/Bitcoin, r/Ethereum, and r/Monero) are the best predictors overall. We observe that models are more accurate in forecasting price one day ahead for Bitcoin (4% root mean squared percent error) compared to Ethereum (7%) and Monero (8%).

q-fin.ST↗