arXiv subjects

Tobias M. Wolff

Publications and source records attributed to Tobias M. Wolff.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Estimating Hormone Concentrations in the Pituitary-Thyroid Feedback Loop from Irregularly Sampled Measurements

Model-based control techniques have recently been investigated for the recommendation of medication dosages to address thyroid diseases. These techniques often rely on knowledge of internal hormone concentrations that cannot be measured from blood samples. Moreover, the measurable concentrations are typically only obtainable at irregular sampling times. In this work, we empirically verify a notion of sample-based detectability that accounts for irregular sampling of the measurable concentrations on two pituitary-thyroid loop models representing patients with hypo- and hyperthyroidism, respectively, and include the internal concentrations as states. We then implement sample-based moving horizon estimation for the models, and test its performance on virtual patients across a range of sampling schemes. Our study shows robust stability of the estimator across all scenarios, and that more frequent sampling leads to less estimation error in the presence of model uncertainty and misreported dosages.

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arXiv2026

Data-based Moving Horizon Estimation under Irregularly Measured Data

In this work, we introduce a sample- and data-based moving horizon estimation framework for linear systems. We perform state estimation in a sample-based fashion in the sense that we assume to have only few, irregular output measurements available. This setting is encountered in applications where measuring is expensive or time-consuming. Furthermore, the state estimation framework does not rely on a standard mathematical model, but on an implicit system representation based on measured data. We prove sample-based practical robust exponential stability of the proposed estimator under mild assumptions. Furthermore, we apply the proposed scheme to estimate the states of a gastrointestinal tract absorption system.

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arXiv2025

Inference in Latent Force Models Using Optimal State Estimation

Latent force models, a class of hybrid modeling approaches, integrate physical knowledge of system dynamics with a latent force - an unknown, unmeasurable input modeled as a Gaussian process. In this work, we introduce two optimal state estimation frameworks to reconstruct the latent forces and to estimate the states. In contrast to state-of-the-art approaches, the designed estimators enable the consideration of system-inherent constraints. Finally, the performance of the novel frameworks is investigated in several numerical examples. In particular, we demonstrate the performance of the new framework in a real-world biomedical example - the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis - using hormone measurements.

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arXiv2025

Gaussian Process-Based Nonlinear Moving Horizon Estimation

In this paper, we propose a novel Gaussian process-based moving horizon estimation (MHE) framework for unknown nonlinear systems. On the one hand, we approximate the system dynamics by the posterior means of the learned Gaussian processes (GPs). On the other hand, we exploit the posterior variances of the Gaussian processes to design the weighting matrices in the MHE cost function and account for the uncertainty in the learned system dynamics. The data collection and the tuning of the hyperparameters are done offline. We prove robust stability of the GP-based MHE scheme using a Lyapunov-based proof technique. Furthermore, as additional contribution, we derive a sufficient condition under which incremental input/output-to-state stability (a nonlinear detectability notion) is preserved when approximating the system dynamics using, e.g., machine learning techniques. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the GP-based MHE scheme in two simulation case studies and show how the chosen weighting matrices can lead to an improved performance compared to standard cost functions.

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arXiv2025

Gaussian Processes with Noisy Regression Inputs for Dynamical Systems

This paper is centered around the approximation of dynamical systems by means of Gaussian processes. To this end, trajectories of such systems must be collected to be used as training data. The measurements of these trajectories are typically noisy, which implies that both the regression inputs and outputs are corrupted by noise. However, most of the literature considers only noise in the regression outputs. In this paper, we show how to account for the noise in the regression inputs in an extended Gaussian process framework to approximate scalar and multidimensional systems. We demonstrate the potential of our framework by comparing it to different state-of-the-art methods in several simulation examples.

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arXiv2025

Modeling and Predictive Control for the Treatment of Hyperthyroidism

In this work, we propose an approach to determine the dosages of antithyroid agents to treat hyperthyroid patients. Instead of relying on a trial-and-error approach as it is commonly done in clinical practice, we suggest to determine the dosages by means of a model predictive control (MPC) scheme. To this end, we first extend a mathematical model of the pituitary-thyroid feedback loop such that the intake of methimazole, a common antithyroid agent, can be considered. Second, based on the extended model, we develop an MPC scheme to determine suitable dosages. In numerical simulations, we consider scenarios in which (i) patients are affected by Graves' disease and take the medication orally and (ii) patients suffering from a life-threatening thyrotoxicosis, in which the medication is usually given intravenously. Our conceptual study suggests that determining the medication dosages by means of an MPC scheme could be a promising alternative to the currently applied trial-and-error approach.

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arXiv2024

Robust Data-Driven Moving Horizon Estimation for Linear Discrete-Time Systems

In this paper, a robust data-driven moving horizon estimation (MHE) scheme for linear time-invariant discrete-time systems is introduced. The scheme solely relies on offline collected data without employing any system identification step. We prove practical robust exponential stability for the setting where both the online measurements and the offline collected data are corrupted by non-vanishing and bounded noise. The behavior of the novel robust data-driven MHE scheme is illustrated by means of simulation examples and compared to a standard model-based MHE scheme, where the model is identified using the same offline data as for the data-driven MHE scheme.

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arXiv2023

Model predictive control for the prescription of antithyroid agents

Although hyperthyroidism is a common disease, the pharmaceutical therapy is based on a trial-and-error approach. We extend a mathematical model of the pituitary-thyroid feedback loop such that the intake of one antithyroid agent, namely methimazole (MMI), can be considered and use a model predictive control (MPC) scheme to determine suitable dosages.

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arXiv2023

Robust Stability of Gaussian Process Based Moving Horizon Estimation

In this paper, we introduce a Gaussian process based moving horizon estimation (MHE) framework. The scheme is based on offline collected data and offline hyperparameter optimization. In particular, compared to standard MHE schemes, we replace the mathematical model of the system by the posterior mean of the Gaussian process. To account for the uncertainty of the learned model, we exploit the posterior variance of the learned Gaussian process in the weighting matrices of the cost function of the proposed MHE scheme. We prove practical robust exponential stability of the resulting estimator using a recently proposed Lyapunov-based proof technique. Finally, the performance of the Gaussian process based MHE scheme is illustrated via a nonlinear system.

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arXiv2022

Data-Based Moving Horizon Estimation for Linear Discrete-Time Systems

This paper introduces a data-based moving horizon estimation (MHE) scheme for linear time-invariant discrete-time systems. The scheme solely relies on collected data without employing any system identification step. Robust global exponential stability of the data-based MHE is proven under standard assumptions for the case where the online output measurements are corrupted by some non-vanishing measurement noise. A simulation example illustrates the behavior of the data-based MHE scheme.

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