arXiv subjects

Tom Rainforth

Publications and source records attributed to Tom Rainforth.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Beyond Bayesian Model Averaging over Paths in Probabilistic Programs with Stochastic Support

The posterior in probabilistic programs with stochastic support decomposes as a weighted sum of the local posterior distributions associated with each possible program path. We show that making predictions with this full posterior implicitly performs a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) over paths. This is potentially problematic, as BMA weights can be unstable due to model misspecification or inference approximations, leading to sub-optimal predictions in turn. To remedy this issue, we propose alternative mechanisms for path weighting: one based on stacking and one based on ideas from PAC-Bayes. We show how both can be implemented as a cheap post-processing step on top of existing inference engines. In our experiments, we find them to be more robust and lead to better predictions compared to the default BMA weights.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

In-Context Learning Learns Label Relationships but Is Not Conventional Learning

The predictions of Large Language Models (LLMs) on downstream tasks often improve significantly when including examples of the input--label relationship in the context. However, there is currently no consensus about how this in-context learning (ICL) ability of LLMs works. For example, while Xie et al. (2021) liken ICL to a general-purpose learning algorithm, Min et al. (2022) argue ICL does not even learn label relationships from in-context examples. In this paper, we provide novel insights into how ICL leverages label information, revealing both capabilities and limitations. To ensure we obtain a comprehensive picture of ICL behavior, we study probabilistic aspects of ICL predictions and thoroughly examine the dynamics of ICL as more examples are provided. Our experiments show that ICL predictions almost always depend on in-context labels and that ICL can learn truly novel tasks in-context. However, we also find that ICL struggles to fully overcome prediction preferences acquired from pre-training data and, further, that ICL does not consider all in-context information equally.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

On the Expected Size of Conformal Prediction Sets

While conformal predictors reap the benefits of rigorous statistical guarantees on their error frequency, the size of their corresponding prediction sets is critical to their practical utility. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of finite-sample analysis and guarantees for their prediction set sizes. To address this shortfall, we theoretically quantify the expected size of the prediction sets under the split conformal prediction framework. As this precise formulation cannot usually be calculated directly, we further derive point estimates and high-probability interval bounds that can be empirically computed, providing a practical method for characterizing the expected set size. We corroborate the efficacy of our results with experiments on real-world datasets for both regression and classification problems.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Modern Bayesian Experimental Design

Bayesian experimental design (BED) provides a powerful and general framework for optimizing the design of experiments. However, its deployment often poses substantial computational challenges that can undermine its practical use. In this review, we outline how recent advances have transformed our ability to overcome these challenges and thus utilize BED effectively, before discussing some key areas for future development in the field.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Rethinking Variational Inference for Probabilistic Programs with Stochastic Support

We introduce Support Decomposition Variational Inference (SDVI), a new variational inference (VI) approach for probabilistic programs with stochastic support. Existing approaches to this problem rely on designing a single global variational guide on a variable-by-variable basis, while maintaining the stochastic control flow of the original program. SDVI instead breaks the program down into sub-programs with static support, before automatically building separate sub-guides for each. This decomposition significantly aids in the construction of suitable variational families, enabling, in turn, substantial improvements in inference performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Trans-Dimensional Generative Modeling via Jump Diffusion Models

We propose a new class of generative models that naturally handle data of varying dimensionality by jointly modeling the state and dimension of each datapoint. The generative process is formulated as a jump diffusion process that makes jumps between different dimensional spaces. We first define a dimension destroying forward noising process, before deriving the dimension creating time-reversed generative process along with a novel evidence lower bound training objective for learning to approximate it. Simulating our learned approximation to the time-reversed generative process then provides an effective way of sampling data of varying dimensionality by jointly generating state values and dimensions. We demonstrate our approach on molecular and video datasets of varying dimensionality, reporting better compatibility with test-time diffusion guidance imputation tasks and improved interpolation capabilities versus fixed dimensional models that generate state values and dimensions separately.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

SelfCheck: Using LLMs to Zero-Shot Check Their Own Step-by-Step Reasoning

The recent progress in large language models (LLMs), especially the invention of chain-of-thought prompting, has made it possible to automatically answer questions by stepwise reasoning. However, when faced with more complicated problems that require non-linear thinking, even the strongest LLMs make mistakes. To address this, we explore whether LLMs are able to recognize errors in their own step-by-step reasoning, without resorting to external resources. To this end, we propose SelfCheck, a general-purpose zero-shot verification schema for recognizing such errors. We then use the results of these checks to improve question-answering performance by conducting weighted voting on multiple solutions to the question. We test SelfCheck on three datasets (GSM8K, MathQA, and MATH) and find that it successfully recognizes errors and, in turn, increases final answer accuracies.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

CO-BED: Information-Theoretic Contextual Optimization via Bayesian Experimental Design

We formalize the problem of contextual optimization through the lens of Bayesian experimental design and propose CO-BED -- a general, model-agnostic framework for designing contextual experiments using information-theoretic principles. After formulating a suitable information-based objective, we employ black-box variational methods to simultaneously estimate it and optimize the designs in a single stochastic gradient scheme. In addition, to accommodate discrete actions within our framework, we propose leveraging continuous relaxation schemes, which can naturally be integrated into our variational objective. As a result, CO-BED provides a general and automated solution to a wide range of contextual optimization problems. We illustrate its effectiveness in a number of experiments, where CO-BED demonstrates competitive performance even when compared to bespoke, model-specific alternatives.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Learning Instance-Specific Augmentations by Capturing Local Invariances

We introduce InstaAug, a method for automatically learning input-specific augmentations from data. Previous methods for learning augmentations have typically assumed independence between the original input and the transformation applied to that input. This can be highly restrictive, as the invariances we hope our augmentation will capture are themselves often highly input dependent. InstaAug instead introduces a learnable invariance module that maps from inputs to tailored transformation parameters, allowing local invariances to be captured. This can be simultaneously trained alongside the downstream model in a fully end-to-end manner, or separately learned for a pre-trained model. We empirically demonstrate that InstaAug learns meaningful input-dependent augmentations for a wide range of transformation classes, which in turn provides better performance on both supervised and self-supervised tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Deep Stochastic Processes via Functional Markov Transition Operators

We introduce Markov Neural Processes (MNPs), a new class of Stochastic Processes (SPs) which are constructed by stacking sequences of neural parameterised Markov transition operators in function space. We prove that these Markov transition operators can preserve the exchangeability and consistency of SPs. Therefore, the proposed iterative construction adds substantial flexibility and expressivity to the original framework of Neural Processes (NPs) without compromising consistency or adding restrictions. Our experiments demonstrate clear advantages of MNPs over baseline models on a variety of tasks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Prediction-Oriented Bayesian Active Learning

Information-theoretic approaches to active learning have traditionally focused on maximising the information gathered about the model parameters, most commonly by optimising the BALD score. We highlight that this can be suboptimal from the perspective of predictive performance. For example, BALD lacks a notion of an input distribution and so is prone to prioritise data of limited relevance. To address this we propose the expected predictive information gain (EPIG), an acquisition function that measures information gain in the space of predictions rather than parameters. We find that using EPIG leads to stronger predictive performance compared with BALD across a range of datasets and models, and thus provides an appealing drop-in replacement.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Do Bayesian Neural Networks Need To Be Fully Stochastic?

We investigate the benefit of treating all the parameters in a Bayesian neural network stochastically and find compelling theoretical and empirical evidence that this standard construction may be unnecessary. To this end, we prove that expressive predictive distributions require only small amounts of stochasticity. In particular, partially stochastic networks with only $n$ stochastic biases are universal probabilistic predictors for $n$-dimensional predictive problems. In empirical investigations, we find no systematic benefit of full stochasticity across four different inference modalities and eight datasets; partially stochastic networks can match and sometimes even outperform fully stochastic networks, despite their reduced memory costs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Capturing Label Characteristics in VAEs

We present a principled approach to incorporating labels in VAEs that captures the rich characteristic information associated with those labels. While prior work has typically conflated these by learning latent variables that directly correspond to label values, we argue this is contrary to the intended effect of supervision in VAEs-capturing rich label characteristics with the latents. For example, we may want to capture the characteristics of a face that make it look young, rather than just the age of the person. To this end, we develop the CCVAE, a novel VAE model and concomitant variational objective which captures label characteristics explicitly in the latent space, eschewing direct correspondences between label values and latents. Through judicious structuring of mappings between such characteristic latents and labels, we show that the CCVAE can effectively learn meaningful representations of the characteristics of interest across a variety of supervision schemes. In particular, we show that the CCVAE allows for more effective and more general interventions to be performed, such as smooth traversals within the characteristics for a given label, diverse conditional generation, and transferring characteristics across datapoints.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning Multimodal VAEs through Mutual Supervision

Multimodal VAEs seek to model the joint distribution over heterogeneous data (e.g.\ vision, language), whilst also capturing a shared representation across such modalities. Prior work has typically combined information from the modalities by reconciling idiosyncratic representations directly in the recognition model through explicit products, mixtures, or other such factorisations. Here we introduce a novel alternative, the MEME, that avoids such explicit combinations by repurposing semi-supervised VAEs to combine information between modalities implicitly through mutual supervision. This formulation naturally allows learning from partially-observed data where some modalities can be entirely missing -- something that most existing approaches either cannot handle, or do so to a limited extent. We demonstrate that MEME outperforms baselines on standard metrics across both partial and complete observation schemes on the MNIST-SVHN (image-image) and CUB (image-text) datasets. We also contrast the quality of the representations learnt by mutual supervision against standard approaches and observe interesting trends in its ability to capture relatedness between data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Active Surrogate Estimators: An Active Learning Approach to Label-Efficient Model Evaluation

We propose Active Surrogate Estimators (ASEs), a new method for label-efficient model evaluation. Evaluating model performance is a challenging and important problem when labels are expensive. ASEs address this active testing problem using a surrogate-based estimation approach that interpolates the errors of points with unknown labels, rather than forming a Monte Carlo estimator. ASEs actively learn the underlying surrogate, and we propose a novel acquisition strategy, XWED, that tailors this learning to the final estimation task. We find that ASEs offer greater label-efficiency than the current state-of-the-art when applied to challenging model evaluation problems for deep neural networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

A Continuous Time Framework for Discrete Denoising Models

We provide the first complete continuous time framework for denoising diffusion models of discrete data. This is achieved by formulating the forward noising process and corresponding reverse time generative process as Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMCs). The model can be efficiently trained using a continuous time version of the ELBO. We simulate the high dimensional CTMC using techniques developed in chemical physics and exploit our continuous time framework to derive high performance samplers that we show can outperform discrete time methods for discrete data. The continuous time treatment also enables us to derive a novel theoretical result bounding the error between the generated sample distribution and the true data distribution.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Expectation Programming: Adapting Probabilistic Programming Systems to Estimate Expectations Efficiently

We show that the standard computational pipeline of probabilistic programming systems (PPSs) can be inefficient for estimating expectations and introduce the concept of expectation programming to address this. In expectation programming, the aim of the backend inference engine is to directly estimate expected return values of programs, as opposed to approximating their conditional distributions. This distinction, while subtle, allows us to achieve substantial performance improvements over the standard PPS computational pipeline by tailoring computation to the expectation we care about. We realize a particular instance of our expectation programming concept, Expectation Programming in Turing (EPT), by extending the PPS Turing to allow so-called target-aware inference to be run automatically. We then verify the statistical soundness of EPT theoretically, and show that it provides substantial empirical gains in practice.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Online Variational Filtering and Parameter Learning

We present a variational method for online state estimation and parameter learning in state-space models (SSMs), a ubiquitous class of latent variable models for sequential data. As per standard batch variational techniques, we use stochastic gradients to simultaneously optimize a lower bound on the log evidence with respect to both model parameters and a variational approximation of the states' posterior distribution. However, unlike existing approaches, our method is able to operate in an entirely online manner, such that historic observations do not require revisitation after being incorporated and the cost of updates at each time step remains constant, despite the growing dimensionality of the joint posterior distribution of the states. This is achieved by utilizing backward decompositions of this joint posterior distribution and of its variational approximation, combined with Bellman-type recursions for the evidence lower bound and its gradients. We demonstrate the performance of this methodology across several examples, including high-dimensional SSMs and sequential Variational Auto-Encoders.

stat.ML↗