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Tze Leung Lai

Publications and source records attributed to Tze Leung Lai.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Adaptive Data Depth via Multi-Armed Bandits

Data depth, introduced by Tukey (1975), is an important tool in data science, robust statistics, and computational geometry. One chief barrier to its broader practical utility is that many common measures of depth are computationally intensive, requiring on the order of $n^d$ operations to exactly compute the depth of a single point within a data set of $n$ points in $d$-dimensional space. Often however, we are not directly interested in the absolute depths of the points, but rather in their relative ordering. For example, we may want to find the most central point in a data set (a generalized median), or to identify and remove all outliers (points on the fringe of the data set with low depth). With this observation, we develop a novel and instance-adaptive algorithm for adaptive data depth computation by reducing the problem of exactly computing $n$ depths to an $n$-armed stochastic multi-armed bandit problem which we can efficiently solve. We focus our exposition on simplicial depth, developed by Liu (1990), which has emerged as a promising notion of depth due to its interpretability and asymptotic properties. We provide general instance-dependent theoretical guarantees for our proposed algorithms, which readily extend to many other common measures of data depth including majority depth, Oja depth, and likelihood depth. When specialized to the case where the gaps in the data follow a power law distribution with parameter $α<2$, we show that we can reduce the complexity of identifying the deepest point in the data set (the simplicial median) from $O(n^d)$ to $\tilde{O}(n^{d-(d-1)α/2})$, where $\tilde{O}$ suppresses logarithmic factors. We corroborate our theoretical results with numerical experiments on synthetic data, showing the practical utility of our proposed methods.

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Exploration Enhancement of Nature-Inspired Swarm-based Optimization Algorithms

Nature-inspired swarm-based algorithms have been widely applied to tackle high-dimensional and complex optimization problems across many disciplines. They are general purpose optimization algorithms, easy to use and implement, flexible and assumption-free. A common drawback of these algorithms is premature convergence and the solution found is not a global optimum. We provide sufficient conditions for an algorithm to converge almost surely (a.s.) to a global optimum. We then propose a general, simple and effective strategy, called Perturbation-Projection (PP), to enhance an algorithm's exploration capability so that our convergence conditions are guaranteed to hold. We illustrate this approach using three widely used nature-inspired swarm-based optimization algorithms: particle swarm optimization (PSO), bat algorithm (BAT) and competitive swarm optimizer (CSO). Extensive numerical experiments show that each of the three algorithms with the enhanced PP strategy outperforms the original version in a number of notable ways.

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A New Approach to Designing Phase I-II Cancer Trials for Cytotoxic Chemotherapies

Recently there has been much work on early phase cancer designs that incorporate both toxicity and efficacy data, called Phase I-II designs because they combine elements of both phases. However, they do not explicitly address the Phase II hypothesis test of $H_0: p\le p_0$, where $p$ is the probability of efficacy at the estimated maximum tolerated dose (MTD) $\widehatη$ from Phase I and $p_0$ is the baseline efficacy rate. Standard practice for Phase II remains to treat $p$ as a fixed, unknown parameter and to use Simon's 2-stage design with all patients dosed at $\widehatη$. We propose a Phase I-II design that addresses the uncertainty in the estimate $p=p(\widehatη)$ in $H_0$ by using sequential generalized likelihood theory. Combining this with a Phase I design that incorporates efficacy data, the Phase I-II design provides a common framework that can be used all the way from the first dose of Phase I through the final accept/reject decision about $H_0$ at the end of Phase II, utilizing both toxicity and efficacy data throughout. Efficient group sequential testing is used in Phase II that allows for early stopping to show treatment effect or futility. The proposed Phase I-II design thus removes the artificial barrier between Phase I and Phase II, and fulfills the objectives of searching for the MTD and testing if the treatment has an acceptable response rate to enter into a Phase III trial.

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A general theory of particle filters in hidden Markov models and some applications

By making use of martingale representations, we derive the asymptotic normality of particle filters in hidden Markov models and a relatively simple formula for their asymptotic variances. Although repeated resamplings result in complicated dependence among the sample paths, the asymptotic variance formula and martingale representations lead to consistent estimates of the standard errors of the particle filter estimates of the hidden states.

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Evaluating probability forecasts

Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.

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A sequential Monte Carlo approach to computing tail probabilities in stochastic models

Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential Monte Carlo estimators, we show how resampling weights can be chosen to yield logarithmically efficient Monte Carlo estimates of large deviation probabilities for multidimensional Markov random walks.

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Incorporating Individual and Collective Ethics into Phase I Cancer Trial Designs

A general framework is proposed for Bayesian model-based designs of Phase I cancer trials, in which a general criterion for coherence (Cheung, 2005) of a design is also developed. This framework can incorporate both "individual" and "collective" ethics into the design of the trial. We propose a new design which minimizes a risk function composed of two terms, with one representing the individual risk of the current dose and the other representing the collective risk. The performance of this design, which is measured in terms of the accuracy of the estimated target dose at the end of the trial, the toxicity and overdose rates, and certain loss functions reflecting the individual and collective ethics, is studied and compared with existing Bayesian model-based designs and is shown to have better performance than existing designs.

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Mean--variance portfolio optimization when means and covariances are unknown

Markowitz's celebrated mean--variance portfolio optimization theory assumes that the means and covariances of the underlying asset returns are known. In practice, they are unknown and have to be estimated from historical data. Plugging the estimates into the efficient frontier that assumes known parameters has led to portfolios that may perform poorly and have counter-intuitive asset allocation weights; this has been referred to as the "Markowitz optimization enigma." After reviewing different approaches in the literature to address these difficulties, we explain the root cause of the enigma and propose a new approach to resolve it. Not only is the new approach shown to provide substantial improvements over previous methods, but it also allows flexible modeling to incorporate dynamic features and fundamental analysis of the training sample of historical data, as illustrated in simulation and empirical studies.

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Multistage tests of multiple hypotheses

Conventional multiple hypothesis tests use step-up, step-down, or closed testing methods to control the overall error rates. We will discuss marrying these methods with adaptive multistage sampling rules and stopping rules to perform efficient multiple hypothesis testing in sequential experimental designs. The result is a multistage step-down procedure that adaptively tests multiple hypotheses while preserving the family-wise error rate, and extends Holm's (1979) step-down procedure to the sequential setting, yielding substantial savings in sample size with small loss in power.

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Modern Sequential Analysis and its Applications to Computerized Adaptive Testing

After a brief review of recent advances in sequential analysis involving sequential generalized likelihood ratio tests, we discuss their use in psychometric testing and extend the asymptotic optimality theory of these sequential tests to the case of sequentially generated experiments, of particular interest in computerized adaptive testing. We then show how these methods can be used to design adaptive mastery tests, which are asymptotically optimal and are also shown to provide substantial improvements over currently used sequential and fixed length tests.

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Generalized Likelihood Ratio Statistics and Uncertainty Adjustments in Efficient Adaptive Design of Clinical Trials

A new approach to adaptive design of clinical trials is proposed in a general multiparameter exponential family setting, based on generalized likelihood ratio statistics and optimal sequential testing theory. These designs are easy to implement, maintain the prescribed Type I error probability, and are asymptotically efficient. Practical issues involved in clinical trials allowing mid-course adaptation and the large literature on this subject are discussed, and comparisons between the proposed and existing designs are presented in extensive simulation studies of their finite-sample performance, measured in terms of the expected sample size and power functions.

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Efficient adaptive designs with mid-course sample size adjustment in clinical trials

Adaptive designs have been proposed for clinical trials in which the nuisance parameters or alternative of interest are unknown or likely to be misspecified before the trial. Whereas most previous works on adaptive designs and mid-course sample size re-estimation have focused on two-stage or group sequential designs in the normal case, we consider here a new approach that involves at most three stages and is developed in the general framework of multiparameter exponential families. Not only does this approach maintain the prescribed type I error probability, but it also provides a simple but asymptotically efficient sequential test whose finite-sample performance, measured in terms of the expected sample size and power functions, is shown to be comparable to the optimal sequential design, determined by dynamic programming, in the simplified normal mean case with known variance and prespecified alternative, and superior to the existing two-stage designs and also to adaptive group sequential designs when the alternative or nuisance parameters are unknown or misspecified.

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Approximate Dynamic Programming and Its Applications to the Design of Phase I Cancer Trials

Optimal design of a Phase I cancer trial can be formulated as a stochastic optimization problem. By making use of recent advances in approximate dynamic programming to tackle the problem, we develop an approximation of the Bayesian optimal design. The resulting design is a convex combination of a "treatment" design, such as Babb et al.'s (1998) escalation with overdose control, and a "learning" design, such as Haines et al.'s (2003) $c$-optimal design, thus directly addressing the treatment versus experimentation dilemma inherent in Phase I trials and providing a simple and intuitive design for clinical use. Computational details are given and the proposed design is compared to existing designs in a simulation study. The design can also be readily modified to include a first stage that cautiously escalates doses similarly to traditional nonparametric step-up/down schemes, while validating the Bayesian parametric model for the efficient model-based design in the second stage.

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Sequential nonparametrics and semiparametrics: Theory, implementation and applications to clinical trials

One of Pranab K. Sen's major research areas is sequential nonparametrics and semiparametrics and their applications to clinical trials, to which he has made many important contributions. Herein we review a number of these contributions and related developments. We also describe some recent work on nonparametric and semiparametric inference and the associated computational methods in time-sequential clinical trials with survival endpoints.

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Pseudo-maximization and self-normalized processes

Self-normalized processes are basic to many probabilistic and statistical studies. They arise naturally in the the study of stochastic integrals, martingale inequalities and limit theorems, likelihood-based methods in hypothesis testing and parameter estimation, and Studentized pivots and bootstrap-$t$ methods for confidence intervals. In contrast to standard normalization, large values of the observations play a lesser role as they appear both in the numerator and its self-normalized denominator, thereby making the process scale invariant and contributing to its robustness. Herein we survey a number of results for self-normalized processes in the case of dependent variables and describe a key method called ``pseudo-maximization'' that has been used to derive these results. In the multivariate case, self-normalization consists of multiplying by the inverse of a positive definite matrix (instead of dividing by a positive random variable as in the scalar case) and is ubiquitous in statistical applications, examples of which are given.

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Efficient importance sampling for Monte Carlo evaluation of exceedance probabilities

Large deviation theory has provided important clues for the choice of importance sampling measures for Monte Carlo evaluation of exceedance probabilities. However, Glasserman and Wang [Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997) 731--746] have given examples in which importance sampling measures that are consistent with large deviations can perform much worse than direct Monte Carlo. We address this problem by using certain mixtures of exponentially twisted measures for importance sampling. Their asymptotic optimality is established by using a new class of likelihood ratio martingales and renewal theory.

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Time Series and Related Topics. In Memory of Ching-Zong Wei

A major research area of Ching-Zong Wei (1949--2004) was time series models and their applications in econometrics and engineering, to which he made many important contributions. A conference on time series and related topics in memory of him was held on December 12--14, 2005, at Academia Sinica in Taipei, where he was Director of the Institute of Statistical Science from 1993 to 1999. Of the forty-two speakers at the conference, twenty contributed to this volume. These papers are listed under the following three headings.

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Combining domain knowledge and statistical models in time series analysis

This paper describes a new approach to time series modeling that combines subject-matter knowledge of the system dynamics with statistical techniques in time series analysis and regression. Applications to American option pricing and the Canadian lynx data are given to illustrate this approach.

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