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Uroš Seljak

Publications and source records attributed to Uroš Seljak.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

stat.ML↗

Validating Sequential Monte Carlo for Gravitational-Wave Inference

Nested sampling (NS) is the preferred stochastic sampling algorithm for gravitational-wave inference for compact binary coalenscences (CBCs). It can handle the complex nature of the gravitational-wave likelihood surface and provides an estimate of the Bayesian model evidence. However, there is another class of algorithms that meets the same requirements but has not been used for gravitational-wave analyses: Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an extension of importance sampling that maps samples from an initial density to a target density via a series of intermediate densities. In this work, we validate a type of SMC algorithm, called persistent sampling (PS), for gravitational-wave inference. We consider a range of different scenarios including binary black holes (BBHs) and binary neutron stars (BNSs) and real and simulated data and show that PS produces results that are consistent with NS whilst being, on average, 2 times more efficient and 2.74 times faster. This demonstrates that PS is a viable alternative to NS that should be considered for future gravitational-wave analyses.

astro-ph.IM↗

Metropolis Adjusted Microcanonical Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Sampling from high dimensional distributions is a computational bottleneck in many scientific applications. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), and in particular the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), are widely used, yet they struggle on problems with a very large number of parameters or a complicated geometry. Microcanonical Langevin Monte Carlo (MCLMC) has been recently proposed as an alternative which shows striking gains in efficiency over NUTS, especially for high-dimensional problems. However, it produces biased samples, with a bias that is hard to control in general. We introduce the Metropolis-Adjusted Microcanonical sampler (MAMS), which relies on the same dynamics as MCLMC, but introduces a Metropolis-Hastings step and thus produces asymptotically unbiased samples. We develop an automated tuning scheme for the hyperparameters of the algorithm, making it applicable out of the box. We demonstrate that MAMS outperforms NUTS across the board on benchmark problems of varying complexity and dimensionality, achieving up to a factor of seven speedup.

stat.CO↗

Fluctuation without dissipation: Microcanonical Langevin Monte Carlo

Stochastic sampling algorithms such as Langevin Monte Carlo are inspired by physical systems in a heat bath. Their equilibrium distribution is the canonical ensemble given by a prescribed target distribution, so they must balance fluctuation and dissipation as dictated by the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. In contrast to the common belief, we show that the fluctuation-dissipation theorem is not required because only the configuration space distribution, and not the full phase space distribution, needs to be canonical. We propose a continuous-time Microcanonical Langevin Monte Carlo (MCLMC) as a dissipation-free system of stochastic differential equations (SDE). We derive the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation and show that the stationary distribution is the microcanonical ensemble with the desired canonical distribution on configuration space. We prove that MCLMC is ergodic for any nonzero amount of stochasticity, and for smooth, convex potentials, the expectation values converge exponentially fast. Furthermore, the deterministic drift and the stochastic diffusion separately preserve the stationary distribution. This uncommon property is attractive for practical implementations as it implies that the drift-diffusion discretization schemes are bias-free, so the only source of bias is the discretization of the deterministic dynamics. We applied MCLMC on a lattice $ϕ^4$ model, where Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is currently the state-of-the-art integrator. For the same accuracy, MCLMC converges 12 times faster than HMC on an $8\times8$ lattice. On a $64\times64$ lattice, it is already 32 times faster. The trend is expected to persist to larger lattices, which are of particular interest, for example, in lattice quantum chromodynamics.

hep-lat↗

The Age of the Universe with Globular Clusters III: Gaia distances and hierarchical modeling

This is the third article in a series aimed at computing accurate and precise ages of galactic globular clusters from their full color-magnitude diagram in order to estimate the age of the Universe and in turn constrain the cosmological model. We update previous constraints using additional data and an improved methodology which allows us to vary the helium abundance and the reddening law in addition to the usual parameters (age, metallicity, alpha enhancement, distance and absorption) in the analysis. Even with the additional degrees of freedom, using the full color-magnitude diagram, now described as a Gaussian mixture Bayesian hierarchical model, a tight constraint on the age(s) of the globular clusters and on the other parameters can be obtained, and the statistical errors are fully subdominant to the systematic errors. We find that the age of the oldest globular clusters is $t_{\rm GC} = 13.39 \pm 0.10 ({\rm stat.}) \pm 0.23 ({\rm sys.})$ Gyr, resulting in an age of the Universe $t_{\rm U}=13.57^{+ 0.16}_{-0.14} ({\rm stat})\pm 0.23 ({\rm sys.})$ and a robust 95\% confidence upper limit of $t_U^{\leq}=13.92_{-0.1}^{+0.13}({\rm stat}) \pm{0.23} ({\rm sys})$. This is fully compatible with our previous estimates and with the model-dependent, Cosmic Microwave Background-derived age for the Universe of $t_{\rm U} =13.8 \pm 0.02$ Gyr for a $Λ$CDM model.

astro-ph.CO↗

Sequential Kalman Tuning of the $t$-preconditioned Crank-Nicolson algorithm: efficient, adaptive and gradient-free inference for Bayesian inverse problems

Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) has been proposed as an efficient method for the approximate solution of Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward models. However, when applied to the Bayesian inverse problem EKI is only exact in the regime of Gaussian target measures and linear forward models. In this work we propose embedding EKI and Flow Annealed Kalman Inversion (FAKI), its normalizing flow (NF) preconditioned variant, within a Bayesian annealing scheme as part of an adaptive implementation of the $t$-preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (tpCN) sampler. The tpCN sampler differs from standard pCN in that its proposal is reversible with respect to the multivariate $t$-distribution. The more flexible tail behaviour allows for better adaptation to sampling from non-Gaussian targets. Within our Sequential Kalman Tuning (SKT) adaptation scheme, EKI is used to initialize and precondition the tpCN sampler for each annealed target. The subsequent tpCN iterations ensure particles are correctly distributed according to each annealed target, avoiding the accumulation of errors that would otherwise impact EKI. We demonstrate the performance of SKT for tpCN on three challenging numerical benchmarks, showing significant improvements in the rate of convergence compared to adaptation within standard SMC with importance weighted resampling at each temperature level, and compared to similar adaptive implementations of standard pCN. The SKT scheme applied to tpCN offers an efficient, practical solution for solving the Bayesian inverse problem when gradients of the forward model are not available. Code implementing the SKT schemes for tpCN is available at \url{https://github.com/RichardGrumitt/KalmanMC}.

stat.CO↗

Periodicity significance testing with null-signal templates: reassessment of PTF's SMBH binary candidates

Periodograms are widely employed for identifying periodicity in time series data, yet they often struggle to accurately quantify the statistical significance of detected periodic signals when the data complexity precludes reliable simulations. We develop a data-driven approach to address this challenge by introducing a null-signal template (NST). The NST is created by carefully randomizing the period of each cycle in the periodogram template, rendering it non-periodic. It has the same frequentist properties as a periodic signal template regardless of the noise probability distribution, and we show with simulations that the distribution of false positives is the same as with the original periodic template, regardless of the underlying data. Thus, performing a periodicity search with the NST acts as an effective simulation of the null (no-signal) hypothesis, without having to simulate the noise properties of the data. We apply the NST method to the supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHB) search in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), where Charisi et al. had previously proposed 33 high signal to (white) noise candidates utilizing simulations to quantify their significance. Our approach reveals that these simulations do not capture the complexity of the real data. There are no statistically significant periodic signal detections above the non-periodic background. To improve the search sensitivity we introduce a Gaussian quadrature based algorithm for the Bayes Factor with correlated noise as a test statistic, in contrast to the standard signal to white noise. We show with simulations that this improves sensitivity to true signals by more than an order of magnitude. However, using the Bayes Factor approach also results in no statistically significant detections in the PTF data.

astro-ph.GA↗

Flow Annealed Kalman Inversion for Gradient-Free Inference in Bayesian Inverse Problems

For many scientific inverse problems we are required to evaluate an expensive forward model. Moreover, the model is often given in such a form that it is unrealistic to access its gradients. In such a scenario, standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms quickly become impractical, requiring a large number of serial model evaluations to converge on the target distribution. In this paper we introduce Flow Annealed Kalman Inversion (FAKI). This is a generalization of Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI), where we embed the Kalman filter updates in a temperature annealing scheme, and use normalizing flows (NF) to map the intermediate measures corresponding to each temperature level to the standard Gaussian. In doing so, we relax the Gaussian ansatz for the intermediate measures used in standard EKI, allowing us to achieve higher fidelity approximations to non-Gaussian targets. We demonstrate the performance of FAKI on two numerical benchmarks, showing dramatic improvements over standard EKI in terms of accuracy whilst accelerating its already rapid convergence properties (typically in $\mathcal{O}(10)$ steps).

stat.CO↗

Probabilistic Autoencoder

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) minimizes the reconstruction error given a class of linear models of fixed component dimensionality. Probabilistic PCA adds a probabilistic structure by learning the probability distribution of the PCA latent space weights, thus creating a generative model. Autoencoders (AE) minimize the reconstruction error in a class of nonlinear models of fixed latent space dimensionality and outperform PCA at fixed dimensionality. Here, we introduce the Probabilistic Autoencoder (PAE) that learns the probability distribution of the AE latent space weights using a normalizing flow (NF). The PAE is fast and easy to train and achieves small reconstruction errors, high sample quality, and good performance in downstream tasks. We compare the PAE to Variational AE (VAE), showing that the PAE trains faster, reaches a lower reconstruction error, and produces good sample quality without requiring special tuning parameters or training procedures. We further demonstrate that the PAE is a powerful model for performing the downstream tasks of probabilistic image reconstruction in the context of Bayesian inference of inverse problems for inpainting and denoising applications. Finally, we identify latent space density from NF as a promising outlier detection metric.

cs.LG↗

Statistical significance testing for mixed priors: a combined Bayesian and frequentist analysis

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it incorporates Occam's razor via multiplicity or trials factor in the Look Elsewhere Effect. However, if the prior is not known completely, the frequentist hypothesis test via the false positive rate is a better approach, as it is less sensitive to the prior choice. We argue that when only partial prior information is available, it is best to combine the two methodologies by using the Bayes factor as a test statistic in the frequentist analysis. We show that the standard frequentist likelihood-ratio test statistic corresponds to the Bayes factor with a non-informative Jeffrey's prior. We also show that mixed priors increase the statistical power in frequentist analyses over the likelihood ratio test statistic. We develop an analytic formalism that does not require expensive simulations using a statistical mechanics approach to hypothesis testing in Bayesian and frequentist statistics. We introduce the counting of states in a continuous parameter space using the uncertainty volume as the quantum of the state. We show that both the p-value and Bayes factor can be expressed as energy versus entropy competition. We present analytic expressions that generalize Wilks' theorem beyond its usual regime of validity and work in a non-asymptotic regime. In specific limits, the formalism reproduces existing expressions, such as the p-value of linear models and periodograms. We apply the formalism to an example of exoplanet transits, where multiplicity can be more than $10^7$. We show that our analytic expressions reproduce the p-values derived from numerical simulations.

physics.data-an↗

Photo-z outlier self-calibration in weak lensing surveys

Calibrating photometric redshift errors in weak lensing surveys with external data is extremely challenging. We show that both Gaussian and outlier photo-z parameters can be self-calibrated from the data alone. This comes at no cost for the neutrino masses, curvature and dark energy equation of state $w_0$, but with a 65% degradation when both $w_0$ and $w_a$ are varied. We perform a realistic forecast for the Vera Rubin Observatory (VRO) Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) 3x2 analysis, combining cosmic shear, projected galaxy clustering and galaxy - galaxy lensing. We confirm the importance of marginalizing over photo-z outliers. We examine a subset of internal cross-correlations, dubbed "null correlations", which are usually ignored in 3x2 analyses. Despite contributing only $\sim$ 10% of the total signal-to-noise, these null correlations improve the constraints on photo-z parameters by up to an order of magnitude. Using the same galaxy sample as sources and lenses dramatically improves the photo-z uncertainties too. Together, these methods add robustness to any claim of detected new Physics, and reduce the statistical errors on cosmology by 15% and 10% respectively. Finally, including CMB lensing from an experiment like Simons Observatory or CMB-S4 improves the cosmological and photo-z posterior constraints by about 10%, and further improves the robustness to systematics. To give intuition on the Fisher forecasts, we examine in detail several toy models that explain the origin of the photo-z self-calibration. Our Fisher code LaSSI (Large-Scale Structure Information), which includes the effect of Gaussian and outlier photo-z, shear multiplicative bias, linear galaxy bias, and extensions to $Λ$CDM, is publicly available at https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/LaSSI .

astro-ph.CO↗

CosmicRIM : Reconstructing Early Universe by Combining Differentiable Simulations with Recurrent Inference Machines

Reconstructing the Gaussian initial conditions at the beginning of the Universe from the survey data in a forward modeling framework is a major challenge in cosmology. This requires solving a high dimensional inverse problem with an expensive, non-linear forward model: a cosmological N-body simulation. While intractable until recently, we propose to solve this inference problem using an automatically differentiable N-body solver, combined with a recurrent networks to learn the inference scheme and obtain the maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) estimate of the initial conditions of the Universe. We demonstrate using realistic cosmological observables that learnt inference is 40 times faster than traditional algorithms such as ADAM and LBFGS, which require specialized annealing schemes, and obtains solution of higher quality.

astro-ph.CO↗

Matched filtering with non-Gaussian noise for planet transit detections

We develop a method for planet detection in transit data, which is based on the Matched Filter technique, combined with the Gaussianization of the noise outliers. The method is based on Fourier transforms and is as fast as the existing methods for planet searches. The Gaussinized Matched Filter (GMF) method significantly outperforms the standard baseline methods in terms of the false positive rate, enabling planet detections at up to 30 % lower transit amplitudes. Moreover, the method extracts all the main planet transit parameters, amplitude, period, phase, and duration. By comparison to the state of the art Gaussian Process methods on both simulations and real data we show that all the transit parameters are determined with an optimal accuracy (no bias and minimum variance), meaning that the GMF method can be used both for the initial planet detection and the follow-up planet parameter analysis.

astro-ph.EP↗

Quantifying the Line-of-Sight Halo Contribution to the Dark Matter Convergence Power Spectrum from Strong Gravitational Lenses

Galaxy-galaxy strong gravitational lenses have become a popular probe of dark matter (DM) by providing a window into structure formation on the smallest scales. In particular, the convergence power spectrum of subhalos within lensing galaxies has been suggested as a promising observable to study DM. However, the distances involved in strong-lensing systems are vast, and we expect the relevant volume to contain line-of-sight (LOS) halos that are not associated with the main lens. We develop a formalism to calculate the effect of LOS halos as an effective convergence power spectrum. The multi-lens plane equation couples the angular deflections of consecutive lens planes, but by assuming that the perturbations due to the LOS halos are small, we show that they can be projected onto the main-lens plane as effective subhalos. We test our formalism by simulating lensing systems using the full multi-plane lens equation and find excellent agreement. We show how the relative contribution of LOS halos and subhalos depends on the source and lens redshift, as well as the assumed halo and subhalo mass functions. For a fiducial system with fraction of DM halo mass in substructure $f_{\rm sub}=0.4\%$ for subhalo masses $[10^5-10^8]\rm{M}_{\odot}$, the interloper contribution to the power spectrum is at least several times greater than that of subhalos for source redshifts $z_s\gtrsim0.5$. Furthermore, it is likely that for the SLACS and BELLS lenses the interloper contribution dominates: $f_{\rm sub}\gtrsim2\%$ ($4\%$) is needed for subhalos to dominate in SLACS (BELLS), which is higher than current upper bounds on $f_{\rm sub}$ for our mass range. Since the halo mass function is better understood from first principles, the dominance of interlopers in galaxy-galaxy lenses with high-quality imaging can be seen as a significant advantage when translating this observable into a constraint on DM.

astro-ph.CO↗

Fundamental Plane of BOSS galaxies: Correlations with galaxy properties, density field and impact on RSD measurements

Fundamental plane of elliptical galaxies can be used to predict the intrinsic size of galaxies and has a number of plausible application to study cosmology and galaxy physics. We present a detailed analysis of the fundamental plane of the SDSS-III BOSS LOWZ and CMASS galaxies. For the standard fundamental plane, we find a strong redshift evolution for the mean residual and show that it is primarily driven by the redshift evolution of the surface brightness of the galaxies. After correcting for the redshift evolution, the FP residuals are strongly correlated with the galaxy properties and some observational systematics. We show that the variations in the FP between the central and satellite galaxies, that have been observed in the literature, can primarily be explained by the correlation of the FP with the galaxy luminosity. We also measure the cross correlations of the FP residuals with the galaxy density field. The amplitude of the cross correlations depends on the galaxy properties and environment with brighter and redder galaxies showing stronger correlation. In general, galaxies in denser environments (higher galaxy bias ) show stronger correlations. We also compare FP amplitude with the amplitudes of intrinsic alignments of galaxy shapes (IA), finding the two to be correlated. Finally, using the FP residuals we also study the impact of intrinsic alignments on the constraint of growth rate using redshift space distortions. We do not observe any significant trends in measurements of the growth rate $f$ as function of the amplitude of FP-density correlations, resulting in null detection of the effects of IA on the RSD measurements.

astro-ph.CO↗

Cosmological constraints from galaxy-lensing cross correlations using BOSS galaxies with SDSS and CMB lensing

We present cosmological parameter constraints based on a joint modeling of galaxy-lensing cross correlations and galaxy clustering measurements in the SDSS, marginalizing over small-scale modeling uncertainties using mock galaxy catalogs, without explicit modeling of galaxy bias. We show that our modeling method is robust to the impact of different choices for how galaxies occupy dark matter halos and to the impact of baryonic physics (at the $\sim2\%$ level in cosmological parameters) and test for the impact of covariance on the likelihood analysis and of the survey window function on the theory computations. Applying our results to the measurements using galaxy samples from BOSS and lensing measurements using shear from SDSS galaxies and CMB lensing from Planck, with conservative scale cuts, we obtain $S_8\equiv\left(\frac{σ_8}{0.8228}\right)^{0.8}\left(\frac{Ω_m}{0.307}\right)^{0.6}=0.85\pm0.05$ (stat.) using LOWZ $\times$ SDSS galaxy lensing, and $S_8=0.91\pm0.1$ (stat.) using combination of LOWZ and CMASS $\times$ Planck CMB lensing. We estimate the systematic uncertainty in the galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements to be $\sim6\%$ (dominated by photometric redshift uncertainties) and in the galaxy-CMB lensing measurements to be $\sim3\%$, from small scale modeling uncertainties including baryonic physics.

astro-ph.CO↗

Normalizing Constant Estimation with Gaussianized Bridge Sampling

Normalizing constant (also called partition function, Bayesian evidence, or marginal likelihood) is one of the central goals of Bayesian inference, yet most of the existing methods are both expensive and inaccurate. Here we develop a new approach, starting from posterior samples obtained with a standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We apply a novel Normalizing Flow (NF) approach to obtain an analytic density estimator from these samples, followed by Optimal Bridge Sampling (OBS) to obtain the normalizing constant. We compare our method which we call Gaussianized Bridge Sampling (GBS) to existing methods such as Nested Sampling (NS) and Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) on several examples, showing our method is both significantly faster and substantially more accurate than these methods, and comes with a reliable error estimation.

stat.ML↗

Uncertainty Quantification with Generative Models

We develop a generative model-based approach to Bayesian inverse problems, such as image reconstruction from noisy and incomplete images. Our framework addresses two common challenges of Bayesian reconstructions: 1) It makes use of complex, data-driven priors that comprise all available information about the uncorrupted data distribution. 2) It enables computationally tractable uncertainty quantification in the form of posterior analysis in latent and data space. The method is very efficient in that the generative model only has to be trained once on an uncorrupted data set, after that, the procedure can be used for arbitrary corruption types.

stat.ML↗