arXiv subjects

V. M. S. Carrasco

Publications and source records attributed to V. M. S. Carrasco.

31 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Analysing the spotless days as predictors of the solar activity from the new sunspot number

The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the temporal coverage of the records is 100 %. The interrelationships of the timing characteristics of spotless days and their comparison with sunspot cycle parameters are explored, in some cases finding very strong correlations. Such is the case for the relationship between the minimum time between spotless days either side of a given solar maximum and the maximum time between spotless days either side in the previous solar minimum, with r = -0.91 and a p-value < 0.001. However, the predictions for SC 24 or 23 made by other authors in previous works using the spotless days as a predictor of solar activity are not good since it has not been fulfilled. Although there seems to be a pattern of strong correlation for some relationships between the parameters studied, prediction of future solar cycles from these parameters defined as functions of the spotless days should be made with caution because sometimes the estimated values are far from the observed ones. Finally, SC 23 seems to show a mode change, a break respect to the behavior of their previous solar cycles and more similar to SC 10-15.

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arXiv2017

Unusual rainbows as auroral candidates: another point of view

Several auroral events that occurred in the past have not been catalogued as such due to fact that they were described in the historical sources with different terminology. Hayakawa et al. (2016) have reviewed historical oriental chronicles and have proposed the terms "unusual rainbow" and "white rainbow" as candidates to auroras. In this work, we present three events that took place in the 18th century in two different settings (the Iberian Peninsula and Brazil) that were originally described with similar definition/wording used by the oriental chronicles, despite the inherent differences in terms associated to oriental and Latin languages. We show that these terms are indeed applicable to the three case studies from Europe and South America. Thus, the auroral catalogues available can be extended for occidental sources with this new terminology.

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arXiv2016

A Revised Collection of Sunspot Group Numbers

We describe a revised collection of the number of sunspot groups from 1610 to the present. This new collection is based on the work of Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998). The main changes are the elimination of a considerable number of observations during the Maunder Minimum (hereafter, MM) and the inclusion of several long series of observations. Numerous minor changes are also described. Moreover, we have calculated the active-day percentage during the MM from this new collection as a reliable index of the solar activity. Thus, the level of solar activity obtained in this work is greater than the level obtained using the original Hoyt and Schatten data, although it remains compatible with a grand minimum of solar activity. The new collection is available in digital format.

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arXiv2016

Revisiting the prediction of solar activity based on the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length

It is very important to forecast the future solar activity due to its effect on our planet and near space. Here, we employ the new version of the sunspot number index (version 2) to analyse the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length proposed by Du (2006). We show that the correlation between the parameters used by Du (2006) for the prediction of the sunspot number (amplitude of the cycle, Rm, and max-max cycle length for two solar cycles before, Pmax-2) disappears when we use solar cycles prior to solar cycle 9. We conclude that the correlation between these parameters depends on the time interval selected. Thus, the proposal of Du (2006) should definitively not be considered for prediction purposes.

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arXiv2016

A Normalized Sunspot-Area Series Starting in 1832: an Update

A new normalized sunspot-area series has been reconstructed from the series obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory and other contemporary institutions for the period 1874 - 2008 and the area series compiled by De la Rue, Stewart, and Loewy from 1832 to 1868. Since the two sets of series do not overlap in time, we used as a link between them the new version of sunspot index number (Version 2) published by SILSO (Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations). We also present a spectral analysis of the normalized area series in search of periodicities beyond the well-known solar cycle of 11 years and a study of the Waldmeier effect in the new version of sunspot-number and the sunspot-area series presented in this study. We conclude that while this effect is significant in the new series of sunspot number, it has a weak relationship with the sunspot-area series.

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arXiv2016

Monitoring the Solar Radius from the Royal Observatory of the Spanish Navy during the Last Quarter-Millennium

The solar diameter has been monitored at the Royal Observatory of the Spanish Navy (today the Real Instituto y Observatorio de la Armada: ROA) almost continuously since its creation in 1753 (i.e. during the last quarter of a millennium). After a painstaking effort to collect data in the historical archive of this institution, we present here the data of the solar semidiameter from 1773 to 2006, making up an extensive new database for solar-radius measurements can be considered. We have calculated the solar semidiameter from the transit times registered by the observers (except values of the solar radius from the modern Danjon astrolabe, which were published by ROA). These data were analysed to reveal any significant long-term trends, but no such trends were found. Therefore, the data sample confirms the constancy of the solar diameter during the last quarter of a millennium (approximately) within instrumental and methodological limits. Moreover, no relationship between solar radius and the new sunspot-number index has been found from measurements of the ROA. Finally, the mean value for solar semidiameter (with one standard deviation) calculated from the observations made in the ROA (1773-2006), after applying corrections by refraction and diffraction, is equal to 958.87" \pm 1.77"

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arXiv2016

Sunspot Observations during the Maunder Minimum from the Correspondence of John Flamsteed

We compile and analyze the sunspot observations made by John Flamsteed for the period 1672-1703, corresponding to the second part of the Maunder Minimum, which appear in the correspondence of this famous astronomer. We include in an appendix the original texts of the sunspot records kept by Flamsteed. We compute an estimate of the level of solar activity using these records, and compare the results with the latest reconstructions of solar activity during the Maunder Minimum, obtaining values characteristic of a grand solar minimum. Finally, we discuss a phenomenon observed and described by Stephen Gray in 1705 that has been interpreted as a white-light flare.

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arXiv2015

Equivalence relations between the Cortie and Zurich sunspot group morphological classifications

Catalogues of sunspots have been available with useful information about sunspots or sunspot groups for approximately the last 150 years. However, the task of merging these catalogues is not simple. In this paper, a method is suggested of converting the types of sunspot groups that were proposed by Cortie (1901) into the well-known Zurich types of sunspot groups. To achieve this, the sunspot catalogue of the Valencia University Observatory (from 1920 to 1928) was used in addition to the descriptions proposed by Cortie. To assess the quality of this conversion scheme, the Zurich type was computed from the Valencia catalogue, and the resulting contribution of each group type was compared to what can be found in other catalogues. The results show that the proposed scheme works well within the errors that are found in the different catalogues.

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arXiv2015

Level and length of cyclic solar activity during the Maunder minimum as deduced from the active day statistics

The Maunder minimum (MM) of greatly reduced solar activity took place in 1645-1715, but the exact level of sunspot activity is uncertain as based, to a large extent, on historical generic statements of the absence of spots on the Sun. Here we aim, using a conservative approach, to assess the level and length of solar cycle during the Maunder minimum, on the basis of direct historical records by astronomers of that time. A database of the active and inactive days (days with and without recorded sunspots on the solar disc respectively) is constructed for three models of different levels of conservatism (loose ML, optimum MO and strict MS models) regarding generic no-spot records. We have used the active day fraction to estimate the group sunspot number during the MM. A clear cyclic variability is found throughout the MM with peaks at around 1655--1657, 1675, 1684 and 1705, and possibly 1666, with the active day fraction not exceeding 0.2, 0.3 or 0.4 during the core MM, for the three models. Estimated sunspot numbers are found very low in accordance with a grand minimum of solar activity. We have found, for the core MM (1650-1700), that: (1) A large fraction of no-spot records, corresponding to the solar meridian observations, may be unreliable in the conventional database. (2) The active day fraction remained low (below 0.3-0.4) throughout the MM, indicating the low level of sunspot activity. (3) The solar cycle appears clearly during the core MM. (4) The length of the solar cycle during the core MM appears $9\pm 1$ years, but there is an uncertainty in that. (5) The magnitude of the sunspot cycle during MM is assessed to be below 5-10 in sunspot numbers; A hypothesis of the high solar cycles during the MM is not confirmed.

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arXiv2015

Sunspots during the Maunder Minimum from Machina Coelestis by Hevelius

We revisited the sunspot observations published by Johannes Hevelius in his book Machina Coelestis (1679) corresponding to the period 1653-1675 (just in the middle of the Maunder Minimum). We show detailed translations of the original Latin texts describing the sunspot records and provide the general context of these sunspot observations. From this source only, we present an estimate of the annual values of the Group Sunspot Number based only on the records that explicitly inform about the presence or absence of sunspots. Although we obtain very low values of the Group Sunspot Number, in accordance with a grand minimum of solar activity, these values are significantly higher in general than the values provided by Hoyt and Schatten (1998) for the same period.

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arXiv2014

Sunspot Catalogue of the Valencia Observatory (1920-1928)

A sunspot catalogue was maintained by the Astronomical Observatory of Valencia University (Spain) from 1920 to 1928. Here we present a machine-readable version of this catalogue (OV catalog or OVc), including a quality control analysis. Sunspot number (total and hemispheric) and sunspot area series are constructed using this catalogue. The OV catalog's data are compared with other available solar data, demonstrating that the present contribution provides the scientific community with a reliable catalogue of sunspot data.

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arXiv2014

Sunspot Numbers and Areas from the Madrid Astronomical Observatory (1876-1986)

The solar program of the Astronomical Observatory of Madrid started in 1876. For ten solar cycles, observations were made in this institution to determine sunspot numbers and areas. The program was completed in 1986. The resulting data have been published in various Spanish scientific publications. The metadata allowed four periods of this program (with different observers and instruments) to be identified. In the present work, the published data were retrieved and digitized. Their subsequent analysis showed that most of these data can be considered reliable given their very high correlation with international reference indices (International Sunspot Number, Group Sunspot Number, and Sunspot Area). An abrupt change emerged in the spots/groups ratio in 1946 which lasted until 1972.

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arXiv2013

Forty two years counting spots: solar observations by D. E. Hadden during 1890-1931 revisited

We have recovered the sunspot observations made by David E. Hadden during 1890-1931 from Alta, Iowa. We have digitized the available data published by Hadden in different astronomical journals. This data series have been analyzed and compared with the standard sunspot number series. Moreover, we provide additional information on two great sunspot groups, previously not described, that originated two important extreme episodes of space weather on February 1892 and September 1898.

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