arXiv subjects

Veit Hagenmeyer

Publications and source records attributed to Veit Hagenmeyer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Graph Machine Learning: An Opportunity for Power Systems

Modern power systems face growing operational complexity driven by the integration of renewable energy sources, decentralization, and the need for real-time decision-making across a wide range of timescales. Addressing these challenges traditionally relies on model-based methods that, while accurate, can be too slow for operational demands. Machine learning (ML) has therefore emerged as a faster, data-driven alternative. As grid topology plays a central role in power system operation, graph machine learning (GML) methods offer a natural framework for incorporating topological dependencies as an inductive bias. We survey nearly 800 papers at the intersection of GML and power systems, covering forecasting, state estimation, optimization, control, fault diagnosis, and cybersecurity. Power systems constitute an unusually rich benchmark setting for GML, as they combine hard physical constraints, multi-scale dynamics, safety-critical requirements, and scarce labeled data within a single, well-defined domain. Conversely, power systems can benefit from utilizing GML to complement classical solvers, as GML provide scalable, topology-aware approximations with promising generalization and computational efficiency. We identify open challenges, including limited real-world deployment and the need for interpretable models in safety-critical settings. Despite the rapidly growing number of publications, standardized benchmarks and open datasets remain scarce, leaving many results difficult to reproduce and undermining the long-term scientific credibility of the field. We further derive a structured requirements catalog for ML-ready power grid benchmarks, intended to guide future dataset development and improve reproducibility across studies. We call on the community to prioritize dedicated benchmark studies and the release of open datasets and models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Deep Learning for Cross-Border Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparative Study

While publicly available electricity market data presents a valuable resource for forecasting research, the field lacks established benchmark datasets for standardized comparison. As a result, many studies have relied on different datasets and metrics to evaluate methods in isolated settings, making it difficult to assess progress and compare state-of-the-art approaches consistently. In this work, we use public data to evaluate deep learning models for electricity price forecasting (EPF) across multiple market settings. Our goal is to establish a reproducible framework that enables a consistent evaluation of forecasting models. Although deep learning has been explored for day-ahead EPF, many prior studies are limited to single-market settings, narrow feature sets, or fixed training regimes. This work presents a comparative evaluation of six deep learning models--covering state-space, MLP, RNN, and Transformer-based architectures--emphasizing generalization across markets. We simulate low-data target-market conditions using zero-shot, one-shot, and few-shot learning. Our test set focuses on the Germany-Luxembourg (DE-LU) bidding zone in 2024 using a standardized dataset with calendar, historical price, and market-derived features. Our findings suggest that N-HiTS and NBEATSx perform competitively in limited-data scenarios, while transformer-based models can reach comparable accuracy but tend to require more adaptation and tuning. Model performance also benefits from careful feature selection and hyperparameter tuning, and we note that the differences between the strongest models are often small.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Distributed coordination for transmission-distribution systems with nonlinear flexibility aggregation

High shares of distributed energy resources (DERs) transform distribution systems into active participants in integrated transmission and distribution (ITD) operations. Linear models enable scalable distribution-level flexibility aggregation but can misclassify AC feasible operating points, whereas direct nonlinear aggregation becomes costly, especially in multiperiod ITD coordination. This paper reformulates transmission-distribution coordination within a hierarchical optimization framework and introduces a non-iterative predictor-corrector aggregation method. By leveraging path-following techniques from real-time optimal control, the approach achieves tractable computation with guaranteed error bounds. Across 24 radial distribution-network cases and seven meshed variants, including the real KIT Campus North grid, the proposed method yields substantially lower sampled false- and lost-flexibility rates than linear surrogates and a convex relaxation. On two 24-period ITD testcases, the formulation reduces end-to-end wall-clock time by factors of 6 relative to the corresponding centralized formulation, primarily through dimensionality reduction.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

A Benchmark for Electrical Load Forecasting Across Grid Levels: Time-Series Transformers Outperform Established Methods

Accurate load forecasting at multiple grid levels is essential for future smart grids, ranging from aggregated control area forecasts for balancing supply and demand to forecasts of individual end-consumer loads for demand-side management and energy management systems. We present a comprehensive benchmark for load forecasting across grid levels, comprising three datasets that represent a transmission system operator control area, low-voltage grid feeders, and individual end consumers. We evaluate ten methods for short-term load forecasting and find that Transformer-based approaches consistently outperform established methods, reducing forecast error by 6.6-10.7 %. To analyze the impact of architectural design, we introduce YAformer, a flexible Transformer architecture that integrates modifications from prior work and is optimized via hyperparameter optimization. However, the standard Transformer achieves superior performance, suggesting that these architectural modifications are not required for accurate load forecasting. We further evaluate the Transformer-based time-series foundation model Chronos-2, which demonstrates competitive zero-shot performance on two datasets but fails to accurately capture special events in the TSO data. Detailed analyses reveal model-specific strengths and weaknesses, and ablation studies highlight the importance of long input contexts, covariates and continuous retraining - aspects that are often overlooked in the time-series forecasting literature.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics

Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation. However, current forecasting methods require significant manual effort, often lack uncertainty estimation and proper peak prediction, and they are often not adequately evaluated in terms of grid requirements. In the present study, we provide an extensive evaluation of short-term net load forecasts of 200 real-world low-voltage feeders with a focus on the rapidly evolving time series foundation models. Our study compares Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS to six baseline models and demonstrates superior performance, in particular for Chronos-2. An ablation study, in which weather covariates are omitted, shows that time series foundation models adapt to increased uncertainty, despite the importance of weather information. A novel application-oriented metric links the model's forecasting capabilities in peak prediction to the trade-off in grid asset planning and operation between cost reduction and minimizing the risk of failure.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

AI Model Extraction Attacks: Bypassing Single-Client Assumptions in Defenses

Ensuring the protection of Artificial Intelligence (AI) models deployed in military Command and Control (C2) systems and critical infrastructure is essential for maintaining information superiority. Model Extraction Attacks (MEAs) pose a significant threat, as they enable adversaries to replicate proprietary models, compromise protected information, and prepare offline adversarial attacks. However, current defense strategies predominantly rely on the Single Client Assumption (SCA), which is the implicit assumption that attacks originate from isolated identities. This work systematically demonstrates that the SCA is fundamentally invalid in the presence of coordinated threat actors, such as Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs). We introduce a modular, open-source framework called CerberusAI for reproducible model-stealing research, and use it to simulate distributed attack scenarios. Our empirical evaluation shows that well-established defense mechanisms, such as Protecting Against Deep Neural Network Model Stealing Attacks (PRADA), can be bypassed by basic round-robin query distribution strategies, resulting in a significant reduction in detection performance. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even global aggregation approaches can be rendered operationally useless through adaptive traffic mixing. These results highlight the need for a paradigm shift towards stateful, identity-independent defense architectures in the field of model extraction attacks. This paper was originally presented at the International Conference on Military Communication and Information Systems (ICMCIS), organized by the Information Systems Technology (IST) Scientific and Technical Committee, IST-224-RSY - the ICMCIS, held in Bath, United Kingdom, 12-13 May 2026 and won the best paper award.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

FlowGuard: Flow Matching for Identity-Independent Detection of Data-Free Model Stealing Attacks on Energy System Intrusion Detection Systems

Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) deployed in energy infrastructure are vulnerable to model theft attacks, which allow adversaries to create evasive traffic offline. Current defences against model extraction rely either on identity-bound query monitoring, which is ineffective against distributed attackers (Sybil), or on prediction poisoning through soft-label perturbation, which is inapplicable to hard-label IDS deployments. Therefore, we propose FlowGuard, an identity-independent defence based on flow matching that classifies incoming queries as out-of-distribution (OOD) prior to IDS processing. This approach exploits the fact that queries generated synthetically for data-free model stealing attacks occupy a lower-dimensional manifold than real network traffic. This results in measurably lower log-likelihoods when using a Continuous Normalizing Flow that has been trained on legitimate data. We evaluate our method against PRADA and FDINet using MAZE and DisGUIDE attacks in single-client and distributed (100-client Sybil) settings. While PRADA's detection rate dropped to 0% when the distribution changed, our defence maintained a stable detection rate across both settings without relying on identity information. We discuss the scope and limitations of the approach, and outline potential applications to data-dependent attacks.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Explainable Data-driven Deep Reinforcement Learning Methods for Optimal Energy Management in Buildings

The increasing integration of renewable energy sources into power systems, particularly in buildings equipped with photovoltaic (PV) panels and energy storage systems, introduces significant complexity in energy systems. Volatile power generation, varying electricity tariffs, and increased entities, e.g., PV systems, and heat pumps, have increased the complexity and made the system harder to operate. This leads to the demand for additional control and optimization routes including data-based controls, such as reinforcement learning. While deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has emerged as a promising solution to optimize building operations in dynamic and ever more complex environments, its black-box nature impedes user trust and practical adoption. This paper presents a framework for explainable deep reinforcement learning (XRL) applied to energy management in residential buildings. We demonstrate its usage on both synthetic data but also on real-world data from the Living Lab Energy Campus (LLEC) at KIT. We train and compare both on-policy and off-policy DRL agents on an expanded state space that incorporates real-time measurements (demand, PV generation, battery power, state of charge), external signals (dynamic electricity price, local weather data), calendrical and holiday indicators, and forecasts for demand and price. Our experimental results indicate that on-policy algorithms, particularly Advantage Actor Critic (A2C) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), outperform off-policy methods in terms of cumulative rewards and policy stability. To explain these models, we employ post-hoc interpretation techniques to elaborate the learned control policies. Our findings demonstrate that the XRL framework not only reduces electricity costs through optimal battery management, but also provides transparent, actionable insights into the agent's decision-making process.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Mechanism-Dependent Antagonism of Auxiliary Information in Substation-Level Load Disaggregation for Distribution Network Planning

Open-source energy system models disaggregate zonal electricity demand to substations through Voronoi-based preprocessing pipelines that combine socioeconomic weighting with auxiliary spatial corrections. Whether the same auxiliary data helps or harms when the weighting component shifts from rule-based to learned has not been investigated. We fix Voronoi partitioning and cross two design axes on metered demand from 1,891 British primary substations: the demand-weighting method and the mechanism through which Nighttime Light (NTL) intensity and substation-proximity signals enter the allocation, giving 15 configurations. Mechanism-isolation experiments further test additive post-correction and random-noise controls to pinpoint the structural cause of any performance reversal. The same auxiliary data reduces RMSE by 41 % on the static base but increases it by 21 % on the GNN base under multiplicative post-correction (p < 0.001 for both); the best static pipeline outperforms the best GNN variant by 19 %. Post-correction on the GNN improves rank-order correlation (p < 0.001) yet worsens absolute error, so correlation-only evaluation masks the calibration penalty. The isolation experiments trace this reversal to the multiplicative correction form under demand conservation constraints, not to signal redundancy; switching to additive post-correction eliminates the antagonism entirely. A transfer check on 13 German primary substations confirms directional replication and shows amplified antagonism where the GNN baseline already explains over 95 % of demand variance. The NTL and proximity signals behind the 41 % static improvement are publicly available at no cost and should be adopted as default corrections in static pipelines; method evaluation should report RMSE and correlation jointly, as the two metrics diverge under post-correction on learned representations.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

PowerSINDy: Identifying Nonlinear Time-Dependent Dynamics in Power Grid Frequency

System identification plays a crucial role in physics and machine learning for discovering governing equations directly from data. A powerful approach is the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) method, which assumes that only a few dominant terms drive the essential behavior of a nonlinear dynamical system. While SINDy methods have shown excellent results, they are most often illustrated on synthetic or simulated systems, leaving open the question of how well they perform on complex, noisy, real-world data. Power grid frequency dynamics provide a highly relevant and challenging environment for advancing system identification methods. In this work, we propose PowerSINDy as a framework for empirical power system data. We apply this framework to empirical frequency data from the Continental Europe (CE) and South Korea (SK) synchronous grids, two major power systems with distinct dynamical characteristics. PowerSINDy, which also includes time-dependent terms, can identify the dynamics of these complex real-world systems. Furthermore, we benchmark three sparsity-promoting regression strategies: Sequentially Thresholded Least Squares (STLSQ), Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), and Sparse Relaxed Regularized Regression (SR3) to evaluate trade-offs between accuracy, sparsity, and robustness. Results show that LASSO consistently achieves the lowest stable RMSEs, reaching 0.0101 for the CE, while STLSQ provides the best balance between accuracy and stability. SR3 exhibits higher variability and sensitivity to regularization, with L0 and L1 producing nearly indistinguishable outcomes.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Explainable Load Forecasting with Covariate-Informed Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as general-purpose forecasting models and show considerable potential for applications in energy systems. However, applications in critical infrastructure like power grids require transparency to ensure trust and reliability and cannot rely on pure black-box models. To enhance the transparency of TSFMs, we propose an efficient algorithm for computing Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) tailored to these models. The proposed approach leverages the flexibility of TSFMs with respect to input context length and provided covariates. This property enables efficient temporal and covariate masking (selectively withholding inputs), allowing for a scalable explanation of model predictions using SHAP. We evaluate two TSFMs - Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS - on a day-ahead load forecasting task for a transmission system operator (TSO). In a zero-shot setting, both models achieve predictive performance competitive with a Transformer model trained specifically on multiple years of TSO data. The explanations obtained through our proposed approach align with established domain knowledge, particularly as the TSFMs appropriately use weather and calendar information for load prediction. Overall, we demonstrate that TSFMs can serve as transparent and reliable tools for operational energy forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Energy-Arena: A Dynamic Benchmark for Operational Energy Forecasting

Energy forecasting research faces a persistent comparability gap that makes it difficult to measure consistent progress over time. Reported accuracy gains are often not directly comparable because models are evaluated under study-specific datasets, time periods, information sets, and scoring setups, while widely used benchmarks and competition datasets are typically tied to fixed historical windows. This paper introduces the Energy-Arena, a dynamic benchmarking platform for operational energy time series forecasting that provides a continuously updated reference point as energy systems evolve. The platform operates as an open, API-based submission system and standardizes challenge definitions and submission deadlines aligned with operational constraints. Performance is reported on rolling evaluation windows via persistent leaderboards. By moving from retrospective backtesting to forward-looking benchmarking, the Energy-Arena enforces standardized ex-ante submission and ex-post evaluation, thereby improving transparency by preventing information leakage and retroactive tuning. The platform is publicly available at Energy-Arena.org.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

CyberCertBench: Evaluating LLMs in Cybersecurity Certification Knowledge

The rapid evolution and use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in professional workflows require an evaluation of their domain-specific knowledge against industry standards. We introduceCyberCertBench, a new suite of Multiple Choice Question Answering (MCQA) benchmarks derived from industry recognized certifications. CyberCertBench evaluates LLM domain knowledgeagainst the professional standards of Information Technology cybersecurity and more specializedareas such as Operational Technology and related cybersecurity standards. Concurrently, we propose and validate a novel Proposer-Verifier framework, a methodology to generate interpretable,natural language explanations for model performance. Our evaluation shows that frontier modelsachieve human expert level in general networking and IT security knowledge. However, theiraccuracy declines in questions that require vendor-specific nuances or knowledge in formalstandards, like, e.g., IEC 62443. Analysis of model scaling trend and release date demonstratesremarkable gains in parameter efficiency, while recent larger models show diminishing returns.Code and evaluation scripts are available at: https://github.com/GKeppler/CyberCertBench.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Assessing the Performance-Efficiency Trade-off of Foundation Models in Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

Large-scale renewable energy deployment introduces pronounced volatility into the electricity system, turning grid operation into a complex stochastic optimization problem. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential not only to support operational decisions, such as optimal bidding strategies and balancing power preparation, but also to reduce economic risk and improve market efficiency. Probabilistic forecasts are particularly valuable because they quantify uncertainty stemming from renewable intermittency, market coupling, and regulatory changes, enabling market participants to make informed decisions that minimize losses and optimize expected revenues. However, it remains an open question which models to employ to produce accurate forecasts. Should these be task-specific machine learning (ML) models or Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs)? In this work, we compare four models for day-ahead probabilistic EPF (PEPF) in European bidding zones: a deterministic NHITS backbone with Quantile-Regression Averaging (NHITS+QRA) and a conditional Normalizing-Flow forecaster (NF) are compared with two TSFMs, namely Moirai and ChronosX. On the one hand, we find that TSFMs outperform task-specific deep learning models trained from scratch in terms of CRPS, Energy Score, and predictive interval calibration across market conditions. On the other hand, we find that well-configured task-specific models, particularly NHITS combined with QRA, achieve performance very close to TSFMs, and in some scenarios, such as when supplied with additional informative feature groups or adapted via few-shot learning from other European markets, they can even surpass TSFMs. Overall, our findings show that while TSFMs offer expressive modeling capabilities, conventional models remain highly competitive, emphasizing the need to weigh computational expense against marginal performance improvements in PEPF.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CritBench: A Framework for Evaluating Cybersecurity Capabilities of Large Language Models in IEC 61850 Digital Substation Environments

The advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has raised concerns regarding their dual-use potential in cybersecurity. Existing evaluation frameworks overwhelmingly focus on Information Technology (IT) environments, failing to capture the constraints, and specialized protocols of Operational Technology (OT). To address this gap, we introduce CritBench, a novel framework designed to evaluate the cybersecurity capabilities of LLM agents within IEC 61850 Digital Substation environments. We assess five state-of-the-art models, including OpenAI's GPT-5 suite and open-weight models, across a corpus of 81 domain-specific tasks spanning static configuration analysis, network traffic reconnaissance, and live virtual machine interaction. To facilitate industrial protocol interaction, we develop a domain-specific tool scaffold. Our empirical results show that agents reliably execute static structured-file analysis and single-tool network enumeration, but their performance degrades on dynamic tasks. Despite demonstrating explicit, internalized knowledge of the IEC 61850 standards terminology, current models struggle with the persistent sequential reasoning and state tracking required to manipulate live systems without specialized tools. Equipping agents with our domain-specific tool scaffold significantly mitigates this operational bottleneck. Code and evaluation scripts are available at: https://github.com/GKeppler/CritBench

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Stochastic Model Predictive Control based on Mixed Random Variables for Economic Energy Management

Optimal scheduling of batteries has significant potential to reduce electricity costs and to enhance grid resilience. However, effective battery scheduling must account for both physical constraints as well as uncertainties in consumption and generation of renewable energy sources. Instead of optimizing fixed battery power setpoints, we propose an approach that optimizes battery power intervals, allowing the optimization to explicitly account for uncertain consumption and generation as well as how the battery system should respond to them within its physical limits. Our method is based on mixed random variables, represented as mixtures of discrete and continuous probability distributions. Building on this representation, we develop an analytical stochastic formulation for minimizing electricity costs in a residential setting with load, photovoltaics, and battery storage. We demonstrate its effectiveness across real-world data from 15 residential buildings over five consecutive months. Compared with deterministic and probabilistic benchmark controllers, the proposed interval-based optimization achieves the lowest costs. These results show that mixed random variables are a practical and promising tool for decision-making under uncertainty.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Knowledge Distillation for Efficient Transformer-Based Reinforcement Learning in Hardware-Constrained Energy Management Systems

Transformer-based reinforcement learning has emerged as a strong candidate for sequential control in residential energy management. In particular, the Decision Transformer can learn effective battery dispatch policies from historical data, thereby increasing photovoltaic self-consumption and reducing electricity costs. However, transformer models are typically too computationally demanding for deployment on resource-constrained residential controllers, where memory and latency constraints are critical. This paper investigates knowledge distillation to transfer the decision-making behaviour of high-capacity Decision Transformer policies to compact models that are more suitable for embedded deployment. Using the Ausgrid dataset, we train teacher models in an offline sequence-based Decision Transformer framework on heterogeneous multi-building data. We then distil smaller student models by matching the teachers' actions, thereby preserving control quality while reducing model size. Across a broad set of teacher-student configurations, distillation largely preserves control performance and even yields small improvements of up to 1%, while reducing the parameter count by up to 96%, the inference memory by up to 90%, and the inference time by up to 63%. Beyond these compression effects, comparable cost improvements are also observed when distilling into a student model of identical architectural capacity. Overall, our results show that knowledge distillation makes Decision Transformer control more applicable for residential energy management on resource-limited hardware.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

RTS-ABAC: Real-Time Server-Aided Attribute-Based Authorization & Access Control for Substation Automation Systems

Critical energy infrastructures increasingly rely on information and communication technology for monitoring and control, which leads to new challenges with regard to cybersecurity. Recent advancements in this domain, including attribute-based access control (ABAC), have not been sufficiently addressed by established standards such as IEC 61850 and IEC 62351. To address this issue, we propose a novel real-time server-aided attribute-based authorization and access control for time-critical applications called RTS-ABAC. We tailor RTS-ABAC to the strict timing constraints inherent to the protocols employed in substation automation systems (SAS). We extend the concept of conventional ABAC by introducing real-time attributes and time-dependent policy evaluation and enforcement. To safeguard the authenticity, integrity, and non-repudiation of SAS communication and protect an SAS against domain-typical adversarial attacks, RTS-ABAC employs mandatory authentication, authorization, and access control for any type of SAS communication using a bump-in-the-wire (BITW) approach. To evaluate RTS-ABAC, we conduct a testbed-based performance analysis and a laboratory-based demonstration of applicability. We demonstrate the applicability using intelligent electronic devices, merging units, and I/O boxes communicating via the GOOSE and SV protocol. The results show that RTS-ABAC is able to secure low-latency communication between SAS devices, as up to 99.82 % of exchanged packets achieve a round-trip time below 6 ms. Moreover, the results of the evaluation indicate that RTS-ABAC is a viable solution to enhance the cybersecurity not only in a newly constructed SAS but also via retrofitting of existing substations.

cs.CR↗