arXiv subjects

Vijay Raghavan

Publications and source records attributed to Vijay Raghavan.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Certifying What Helps Customer-Return Timing: A Screen-and-Confirm Test for Conditioning Signals, and Why Decay Is Nearly Enough

Practitioners enrich customer-return models with ever more signals (lifetime value, category, recency/frequency, calendar, geography), and the temporal-point-process (TPP) literature follows suit with covariate- and external-covariate-conditioned intensities. But does any of it improve the timing, and how would you know? A null ("feature X doesn't help") is only meaningful if the model could have found a signal. We make two contributions--a method and a measurement--to answer this credibly. (i) A screen-and-confirm protocol that certifies whether a candidate signal improves a TPP's event-timing likelihood: a positive control plants a coupling of known strength and confirms the model recovers it, so a real-data null can be read as "no signal" rather than "weak method." The control is validated for categorical and continuous encodings, and on a real clock-driven dataset (NYC taxi hour-of-day). (ii) A model-free ceiling quantifying how little of customer-return timing is point-predictable at all (a single-digit percentage of gap variance from any covariate; returns are near-memoryless). With these we certify a clean result on three public benchmarks (Amazon, Taobao, RetailRocket) and a real marketplace (Thumbtack): the inter-event clock--continuous-time decay, long known to beat frozen-intensity models--is nearly sufficient, and the conditioning the field keeps adding is redundant or harmful on top of it (statistically null on the public benchmarks, at most 0.06 NLL; null to mildly harmful on the marketplace). We do not claim to discover that decay helps; our contribution is the tools that turn "conditioning doesn't help" into a checkable, certified statement--plus an honest-evaluation account of the read-out/leakage pitfalls we hit and retracted.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

When Offline Evaluation Misleads: A Diagnostic Protocol for Reward and Policy Selection in Delayed-Feedback Contextual Bandits

Personalizing marketing messages with contextual multi-armed bandits (CMABs) drives real business value, yet the objective that ultimately matters - a downstream conversion - is observed only weeks later, too late to drive online learning. Teams therefore train the bandit on a fast proxy reward, and separately must judge whether a contextual bandit is worth its complexity over sending one best message. Settling both decisions with the usual offline checks - a batch off-policy estimate, a marginal arm-discrimination test, a confidence interval - can mislead systematically under delayed feedback. We give an ordered diagnostic protocol that screens a reward-and-policy candidate on two axes, alignment (does optimizing the reward move the north-star?) and learnability (can the bandit identify the reward-optimal policy?), before trusting any reported lift. We validate it where the truth is known - a public off-policy-evaluation benchmark and a controllable synthetic generator - and illustrate it on a deployed large-marketplace push system (where, with five arms and one split, the evidence is directional rather than powered). Two lessons recur. (N1) A single offline number can mis-rank rewards: a denser reward signal gives the bandit more to learn from, so rewards that look tied in a static estimate pull apart once learning happens online. (N2) If you cannot tell in advance which single message is best, a per-user policy partly just avoids betting on the wrong one - that looks like personalization but is really robustness, so a "personalization premium" is easily overstated. Our contribution is methodological rather than algorithmic: the ordered protocol, the two lessons it surfaces, and the end-to-end experience of applying it to a delayed-feedback CMAB.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Dynamic Synthetic Controls vs. Panel-Aware Double Machine Learning for Geo-Level Marketing Impact Estimation

Accurately quantifying geo-level marketing lift in two-sided marketplaces is challenging: the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) often exhibits high power yet systematically under-estimates effect size, while panel-style Double Machine Learning (DML) is seldom benchmarked against SCM. We build an open, fully documented simulator that mimics a typical large-scale geo roll-out: N_unit regional markets are tracked for T_pre weeks before launch and for a further T_post-week campaign window, allowing all key parameters to be varied by the user and probe both families under five stylized stress tests: 1) curved baseline trends, 2) heterogeneous response lags, 3) treated-biased shocks, 4) a non-linear outcome link, and 5) a drifting control group trend. Seven estimators are evaluated: three standard Augmented SCM (ASC) variants and four panel-DML flavors (TWFE, CRE/Mundlak, first-difference, and within-group). Across 100 replications per scenario, ASC models consistently demonstrate severe bias and near-zero coverage in challenging scenarios involving nonlinearities or external shocks. By contrast, panel-DML variants dramatically reduce this bias and restore nominal 95%-CI coverage, proving far more robust. The results indicate that while ASC provides a simple baseline, it is unreliable in common, complex situations. We therefore propose a 'diagnose-first' framework where practitioners first identify the primary business challenge (e.g., nonlinear trends, response lags) and then select the specific DML model best suited for that scenario, providing a more robust and reliable blueprint for analyzing geo-experiments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Beyond the Hype: Embeddings vs. Prompting for Multiclass Classification Tasks

Are traditional classification approaches irrelevant in this era of AI hype? We show that there are multiclass classification problems where predictive models holistically outperform LLM prompt-based frameworks. Given text and images from home-service project descriptions provided by Thumbtack customers, we build embeddings-based softmax models that predict the professional category (e.g., handyman, bathroom remodeling) associated with each problem description. We then compare against prompts that ask state-of-the-art LLM models to solve the same problem. We find that the embeddings approach outperforms the best LLM prompts in terms of accuracy, calibration, latency, and financial cost. In particular, the embeddings approach has 49.5\% higher accuracy than the prompting approach, and its superiority is consistent across text-only, image-only, and text-image problem descriptions. Furthermore, it yields well-calibrated probabilities, which we later use as confidence signals to provide contextualized user experience during deployment. On the contrary, prompting scores are overly uninformative. Finally, the embeddings approach is 14 and 81 times faster than prompting in processing images and text respectively, while under realistic deployment assumptions, it can be up to 10 times cheaper. Based on these results, we deployed a variation of the embeddings approach, and through A/B testing we observed performance consistent with our offline analysis. Our study shows that for multiclass classification problems that can leverage proprietary datasets, an embeddings-based approach may yield unequivocally better results. Hence, scientists, practitioners, engineers, and business leaders can use our study to go beyond the hype and consider appropriate predictive models for their classification use cases.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Integrating Secondary Structures Information into Triangular Spatial Relationships (TSR) for Advanced Protein Classification

Protein structures represent the key to deciphering biological functions. The more detailed form of similarity among these proteins is sometimes overlooked by the conventional structural comparison methods. In contrast, further advanced methods, such as Triangular Spatial Relationship (TSR), have been demonstrated to make finer differentiations. Still, the classical implementation of TSR does not provide for the integration of secondary structure information, which is important for a more detailed understanding of the folding pattern of a protein. To overcome these limitations, we developed the SSE-TSR approach. The proposed method integrates secondary structure elements (SSEs) into TSR-based protein representations. This allows an enriched representation of protein structures by considering 18 different combinations of helix, strand, and coil arrangements. Our results show that using SSEs improves the accuracy and reliability of protein classification to varying degrees. We worked with two large protein datasets of 9.2K and 7.8K samples, respectively. We applied the SSE-TSR approach and used a neural network model for classification. Interestingly, introducing SSEs improved performance statistics for Dataset 1, with accuracy moving from 96.0% to 98.3%. For Dataset 2, where the performance statistics were already good, further small improvements were found with the introduction of SSE, giving an accuracy of 99.5% compared to 99.4%. These results show that SSE integration can dramatically improve TSR key discrimination, with significant benefits in datasets with low initial accuracies and only incremental gains in those with high baseline performance. Thus, SSE-TSR is a powerful bioinformatics tool that improves protein classification and understanding of protein function and interaction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Bias Neutralization Framework: Measuring Fairness in Large Language Models with Bias Intelligence Quotient (BiQ)

The burgeoning influence of Large Language Models (LLMs) in shaping public discourse and decision-making underscores the imperative to address inherent biases within these AI systems. In the wake of AI's expansive integration across sectors, addressing racial bias in LLMs has never been more critical. This paper introduces a novel framework called Comprehensive Bias Neutralization Framework (CBNF) which embodies an innovative approach to quantifying and mitigating biases within LLMs. Our framework combines the Large Language Model Bias Index (LLMBI) [Oketunji, A., Anas, M., Saina, D., (2023)] and Bias removaL with No Demographics (BLIND) [Orgad, H., Belinkov, Y. (2023)] methodologies to create a new metric called Bias Intelligence Quotient (BiQ)which detects, measures, and mitigates racial bias in LLMs without reliance on demographic annotations. By introducing a new metric called BiQ that enhances LLMBI with additional fairness metrics, CBNF offers a multi-dimensional metric for bias assessment, underscoring the necessity of a nuanced approach to fairness in AI [Mehrabi et al., 2021]. This paper presents a detailed analysis of Latimer AI (a language model incrementally trained on black history and culture) in comparison to ChatGPT 3.5, illustrating Latimer AI's efficacy in detecting racial, cultural, and gender biases through targeted training and refined bias mitigation strategies [Latimer & Bender, 2023].

cs.CL↗

arXiv2020

Device-aware inference operations in SONOS nonvolatile memory arrays

Non-volatile memory arrays can deploy pre-trained neural network models for edge inference. However, these systems are affected by device-level noise and retention issues. Here, we examine damage caused by these effects, introduce a mitigation strategy, and demonstrate its use in fabricated array of SONOS (Silicon-Oxide-Nitride-Oxide-Silicon) devices. On MNIST, fashion-MNIST, and CIFAR-10 tasks, our approach increases resilience to synaptic noise and drift. We also show strong performance can be realized with ADCs of 5-8 bits precision.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2019

Deep Multi-view Learning to Rank

We study the problem of learning to rank from multiple information sources. Though multi-view learning and learning to rank have been studied extensively leading to a wide range of applications, multi-view learning to rank as a synergy of both topics has received little attention. The aim of the paper is to propose a composite ranking method while keeping a close correlation with the individual rankings simultaneously. We present a generic framework for multi-view subspace learning to rank (MvSL2R), and two novel solutions are introduced under the framework. The first solution captures information of feature mappings from within each view as well as across views using autoencoder-like networks. Novel feature embedding methods are formulated in the optimization of multi-view unsupervised and discriminant autoencoders. Moreover, we introduce an end-to-end solution to learning towards both the joint ranking objective and the individual rankings. The proposed solution enhances the joint ranking with minimum view-specific ranking loss, so that it can achieve the maximum global view agreements in a single optimization process. The proposed method is evaluated on three different ranking problems, i.e. university ranking, multi-view lingual text ranking and image data ranking, providing superior results compared to related methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Multiple Kernel Learning and Automatic Subspace Relevance Determination for High-dimensional Neuroimaging Data

Alzheimer's disease is a major cause of dementia. Its diagnosis requires accurate biomarkers that are sensitive to disease stages. In this respect, we regard probabilistic classification as a method of designing a probabilistic biomarker for disease staging. Probabilistic biomarkers naturally support the interpretation of decisions and evaluation of uncertainty associated with them. In this paper, we obtain probabilistic biomarkers via Gaussian Processes. Gaussian Processes enable probabilistic kernel machines that offer flexible means to accomplish Multiple Kernel Learning. Exploiting this flexibility, we propose a new variation of Automatic Relevance Determination and tackle the challenges of high dimensionality through multiple kernels. Our research results demonstrate that the Gaussian Process models are competitive with or better than the well-known Support Vector Machine in terms of classification performance even in the cases of single kernel learning. Extending the basic scheme towards the Multiple Kernel Learning, we improve the efficacy of the Gaussian Process models and their interpretability in terms of the known anatomical correlates of the disease. For instance, the disease pathology starts in and around the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex. Through the use of Gaussian Processes and Multiple Kernel Learning, we have automatically and efficiently determined those portions of neuroimaging data. In addition to their interpretability, our Gaussian Process models are competitive with recent deep learning solutions under similar settings.

cs.LG↗