arXiv subjects

Vikram Krishnamurthy

Publications and source records attributed to Vikram Krishnamurthy.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Controlling Transaction Rate in Tangle Ledger: A Principal Agent Problem Approach

Tangle is a distributed ledger technology that stores data as a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Unlike blockchain, Tangle does not require dedicated miners for its operation; this makes Tangle suitable for Internet of Things (IoT) applications. Distributed ledgers have a built-in transaction rate control mechanism to prevent congestion and spamming; this is typically achieved by increasing or decreasing the proof of work (PoW) difficulty level based on the number of users. Unfortunately, this simplistic mechanism gives an unfair advantage to users with high computing power. This paper proposes a principal-agent problem (PAP) framework from microeconomics to control the transaction rate in Tangle. With users as agents and the transaction rate controller as the principal, we design a truth-telling mechanism to assign PoW difficulty levels to agents as a function of their computing power. The solution of the PAP is achieved by compensating a higher PoW difficulty level with a larger weight/reputation for the transaction. The mechanism has two benefits, (1) the security of Tangle is increased as agents are incentivized to perform difficult PoW, and (2) the rate of new transactions is moderated in Tangle. The solution of PAP is obtained by solving a mixed-integer optimization problem. We show that the optimal solution of the PAP increases with the computing power of agents. The structural results reduce the search space of the mixed-integer program and enable efficient computation of the optimal mechanism. Finally, via numerical examples, we illustrate the transaction rate control mechanism and study its impact on the dynamics of Tangle.

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arXiv2023

Statistical Detection of Coordination in a Cognitive Radar Network through Inverse Multi-objective Optimization

Consider a target being tracked by a cognitive radar network. If the target can intercept noisy radar emissions, how can it detect coordination in the radar network? By 'coordination' we mean that the radar emissions satisfy Pareto optimality with respect to multi-objective optimization over the objective functions of each radar and a constraint on total network power output. This paper provides a novel inverse multi-objective optimization approach for statistically detecting Pareto optimal ('coordinating') behavior, from a finite dataset of noisy radar emissions. Specifically, we develop necessary and sufficient conditions for radar network emissions to be consistent with multi-objective optimization (coordination), and we provide a statistical detector with theoretical guarantees for determining this consistency when radar emissions are observed in noise. We also provide numerical simulations which validate our approach. Note that while we make use of the specific framework of a radar network coordination problem, our results apply more generally to the field of inverse multi-objective optimization.

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arXiv2023

Who You Play Affects How You Play: Predicting Sports Performance Using Graph Attention Networks With Temporal Convolution

This study presents a novel deep learning method, called GATv2-GCN, for predicting player performance in sports. To construct a dynamic player interaction graph, we leverage player statistics and their interactions during gameplay. We use a graph attention network to capture the attention that each player pays to each other, allowing for more accurate modeling of the dynamic player interactions. To handle the multivariate player statistics time series, we incorporate a temporal convolution layer, which provides the model with temporal predictive power. We evaluate the performance of our model using real-world sports data, demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting player performance. Furthermore, we explore the potential use of our model in a sports betting context, providing insights into profitable strategies that leverage our predictive power. The proposed method has the potential to advance the state-of-the-art in player performance prediction and to provide valuable insights for sports analytics and betting industries.

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arXiv2023

Fréchet Statistics Based Change Point Detection in Dynamic Social Networks

This paper proposes a method to detect change points in dynamic social networks using Fréchet statistics. We address two main questions: (1) what metric can quantify the distances between graph Laplacians in a dynamic network and enable efficient computation, and (2) how can the Fréchet statistics be extended to detect multiple change points while maintaining the significance level of the hypothesis test? Our solution defines a metric space for graph Laplacians using the Log-Euclidean metric, enabling a closed-form formula for Fréchet mean and variance. We present a framework for change point detection using Fréchet statistics and extend it to multiple change points with binary segmentation. The proposed algorithm uses incremental computation for Fréchet mean and variance to improve efficiency and is validated on simulated and two real-world datasets, namely the UCI message dataset and the Enron email dataset.

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arXiv2023

Mutual Information Measure for Glass Ceiling Effect in Preferential Attachment Models

We propose a new way to measure inequalities such as the glass ceiling effect in attributed networks. Existing measures typically rely solely on node degree distribution or degree assortativity, but our approach goes beyond these measures by using mutual information (based on Shannon and more generally, Renyi entropy) between the conditional probability distributions of node attributes given node degrees of adjacent nodes. We show that this mutual information measure aligns with both the analytical structural inequality model and historical publication data, making it a reliable approach to capture the complexities of attributed networks. Specifically, we demonstrate this through an analysis of citation networks. Moreover, we propose a stochastic optimization algorithm using a parameterized conditional logit model for edge addition, which outperforms a baseline uniform distribution. By recommending links at random using this algorithm, we can mitigate the glass ceiling effect, which is a crucial tool in addressing structural inequalities in networks.

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arXiv2023

Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Inverse Reinforcement Learning of Bayesian Stopping Time Problems

This paper presents an inverse reinforcement learning~(IRL) framework for Bayesian stopping time problems. By observing the actions of a Bayesian decision maker, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition to identify if these actions are consistent with optimizing a cost function. In a Bayesian (partially observed) setting, the inverse learner can at best identify optimality wrt the observed strategies. Our IRL algorithm identifies optimality and then constructs set-valued estimates of the cost function.To achieve this IRL objective, we use novel ideas from Bayesian revealed preferences stemming from microeconomics. We illustrate the proposed IRL scheme using two important examples of stopping time problems, namely, sequential hypothesis testing and Bayesian search. As a real-world example, we illustrate using a YouTube dataset comprising metadata from 190000 videos how the proposed IRL method predicts user engagement in online multimedia platforms with high accuracy. Finally, for finite datasets, we propose an IRL detection algorithm and give finite sample bounds on its error probabilities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Interval Dominance based Structural Results for Markov Decision Process

Structural results impose sufficient conditions on the model parameters of a Markov decision process (MDP) so that the optimal policy is an increasing function of the underlying state. The classical assumptions for MDP structural results require supermodularity of the rewards and transition probabilities. However, supermodularity does not hold in many applications. This paper uses a sufficient condition for interval dominance (called I) proposed in the microeconomics literature, to obtain structural results for MDPs under more general conditions. We present several MDP examples where supermodularity does not hold, yet I holds, and so the optimal policy is monotone; these include sigmoidal rewards (arising in prospect theory for human decision making), bi-diagonal and perturbed bi-diagonal transition matrices (in optimal allocation problems). We also consider MDPs with TP3 transition matrices and concave value functions. Finally, reinforcement learning algorithms that exploit the differential sparse structure of the optimal monotone policy are discussed.

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arXiv2023

Radar Clutter Covariance Estimation: A Nonlinear Spectral Shrinkage Approach

In this paper, we exploit the spiked covariance structure of the clutter plus noise covariance matrix for radar signal processing. Using state-of-the-art techniques high dimensional statistics, we propose a nonlinear shrinkage-based rotation invariant spiked covariance matrix estimator. We state the convergence of the estimated spiked eigenvalues. We use a dataset generated from the high-fidelity, site-specific physics-based radar simulation software RFView to compare the proposed algorithm against the existing Rank Constrained Maximum Likelihood (RCML)-Expected Likelihood (EL) covariance estimation algorithm. We demonstrate that the computation time for the estimation by the proposed algorithm is less than the RCML-EL algorithm with identical Signal to Clutter plus Noise (SCNR) performance. We show that the proposed algorithm and the RCML-EL-based algorithm share the same optimization problem in high dimensions. We use Low-Rank Adaptive Normalized Matched Filter (LR-ANMF) detector to compute the detection probabilities for different false alarm probabilities over a range of target SNR. We present preliminary results which demonstrate the robustness of the detector against contaminating clutter discretes using the Challenge Dataset from RFView. Finally, we empirically show that the minimum variance distortionless beamformer (MVDR) error variance for the proposed algorithm is identical to the error variance resulting from the true covariance matrix.

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arXiv2022

Dynamics of Social Networks: Multi-agent Information Fusion, Anticipatory Decision Making and Polling

This paper surveys mathematical models, structural results and algorithms in controlled sensing with social learning in social networks. Part 1, namely Bayesian Social Learning with Controlled Sensing addresses the following questions: How does risk averse behavior in social learning affect quickest change detection? How can information fusion be priced? How is the convergence rate of state estimation affected by social learning? The aim is to develop and extend structural results in stochastic control and Bayesian estimation to answer these questions. Such structural results yield fundamental bounds on the optimal performance, give insight into what parameters affect the optimal policies, and yield computationally efficient algorithms. Part 2, namely, Multi-agent Information Fusion with Behavioral Economics Constraints generalizes Part 1. The agents exhibit sophisticated decision making in a behavioral economics sense; namely the agents make anticipatory decisions (thus the decision strategies are time inconsistent and interpreted as subgame Bayesian Nash equilibria). Part 3, namely {\em Interactive Sensing in Large Networks}, addresses the following questions: How to track the degree distribution of an infinite random graph with dynamics (via a stochastic approximation on a Hilbert space)? How can the infected degree distribution of a Markov modulated power law network and its mean field dynamics be tracked via Bayesian filtering given incomplete information obtained by sampling the network? We also briefly discuss how the glass ceiling effect emerges in social networks. Part 4, namely \emph{Efficient Network Polling} deals with polling in large scale social networks. In such networks, only a fraction of nodes can be polled to determine their decisions. Which nodes should be polled to achieve a statistically accurate estimates?

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arXiv2022

Adaptive ECCM for Mitigating Smart Jammers

This paper considers adaptive radar electronic counter-counter measures (ECCM) to mitigate ECM by an adversarial jammer. Our ECCM approach models the jammer-radar interaction as a Principal Agent Problem (PAP), a popular economics framework for interaction between two entities with an information imbalance. In our setup, the radar does not know the jammer's utility. Instead, the radar learns the jammer's utility adaptively over time using inverse reinforcement learning. The radar's adaptive ECCM objective is two-fold (1) maximize its utility by solving the PAP, and (2) estimate the jammer's utility by observing its response. Our adaptive ECCM scheme uses deep ideas from revealed preference in micro-economics and principal agent problem in contract theory. Our numerical results show that, over time, our adaptive ECCM both identifies and mitigates the jammer's utility.

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arXiv2022

Identifying Coordination in a Cognitive Radar Network -- A Multi-Objective Inverse Reinforcement Learning Approach

Consider a target being tracked by a cognitive radar network. If the target can intercept some radar network emissions, how can it detect coordination among the radars? By 'coordination' we mean that the radar emissions satisfy Pareto optimality with respect to multi-objective optimization over each radar's utility. This paper provides a novel multi-objective inverse reinforcement learning approach which allows for both detection of such Pareto optimal ('coordinating') behavior and subsequent reconstruction of each radar's utility function, given a finite dataset of radar network emissions. The method for accomplishing this is derived from the micro-economic setting of Revealed Preferences, and also applies to more general problems of inverse detection and learning of multi-objective optimizing systems.

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arXiv2022

How can a Radar Mask its Cognition?

A cognitive radar is a constrained utility maximizer that adapts its sensing mode in response to a changing environment. If an adversary can estimate the utility function of a cognitive radar, it can determine the radar's sensing strategy and mitigate the radar performance via electronic countermeasures (ECM). This paper discusses how a cognitive radar can {\em hide} its strategy from an adversary that detects cognition. The radar does so by transmitting purposefully designed sub-optimal responses to spoof the adversary's Neyman-Pearson detector. We provide theoretical guarantees by ensuring the Type-I error probability of the adversary's detector exceeds a pre-defined level for a specified tolerance on the radar's performance loss. We illustrate our cognition masking scheme via numerical examples involving waveform adaptation and beam allocation. We show that small purposeful deviations from the optimal strategy of the radar confuse the adversary by significant amounts, thereby masking the radar's cognition. Our approach uses novel ideas from revealed preference in microeconomics and adversarial inverse reinforcement learning. Our proposed algorithms provide a principled approach for system-level electronic counter-countermeasures (ECCM) to mask the radar's cognition, i.e., hide the radar's strategy from an adversary. We also provide performance bounds for our cognition masking scheme when the adversary has misspecified measurements of the radar's response.

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arXiv2022

Adaptive Filtering Algorithms for Set-Valued Observations -- Symmetric Measurement Approach to Unlabeled and Anonymized Data

Suppose $L$ simultaneous independent stochastic systems generate observations, where the observations from each system depend on the underlying parameter of that system. The observations are unlabeled (anonymized), in the sense that an analyst does not know which observation came from which stochastic system. How can the analyst estimate the underlying parameters of the $L$ systems? Since the anonymized observations at each time are an unordered set of L measurements (rather than a vector), classical stochastic gradient algorithms cannot be directly used. By using symmetric polynomials, we formulate a symmetric measurement equation that maps the observation set to a unique vector. By exploiting that fact that the algebraic ring of multi-variable polynomials is a unique factorization domain over the ring of one-variable polynomials, we construct an adaptive filtering algorithm that yields a statistically consistent estimate of the underlying parameters. We analyze the asymptotic covariance of these estimates to quantify the effect of anonymization. Finally, we characterize the anonymity of the observations in terms of the error probability of the maximum aposteriori Bayesian estimator. Using Blackwell dominance of mean preserving spreads, we construct a partial ordering of the noise densities which relates the anonymity of the observations to the asymptotic covariance of the adaptive filtering algorithm.

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arXiv2022

Quickest Detection for Human-Sensor Systems using Quantum Decision Theory

In mathematical psychology, recent models for human decision-making use Quantum Decision Theory to capture important human-centric features such as order effects and violation of the sure-thing principle (total probability law). We construct and analyze a human-sensor system where a quickest detector aims to detect a change in an underlying state by observing human decisions that are influenced by the state. Apart from providing an analytical framework for such human-sensor systems, we also analyze the structure of the quickest detection policy. We show that the quickest detection policy has a single threshold and the optimal cost incurred is lower bounded by that of the classical quickest detector. This indicates that intermediate human decisions strictly hinder detection performance. We also analyze the sensitivity of the quickest detection cost with respect to the quantum decision parameters of the human decision maker, revealing that the performance is robust to inaccurate knowledge of the decision-making process. Numerical results are provided which suggest that observing the decisions of more rational decision makers will improve the quickest detection performance. Finally, we illustrate a numerical implementation of this quickest detector in the context of the Prisoner's Dilemma problem, in which it has been observed that Quantum Decision Theory can uniquely model empirically tested violations of the sure-thing principle.

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arXiv2022

Estimating Exposure to Information on Social Networks

This paper considers the problem of estimating exposure to information in a social network. Given a piece of information (e.g., a URL of a news article on Facebook, a hashtag on Twitter), our aim is to find the fraction of people on the network who have been exposed to it. The exact value of exposure to a piece of information is determined by two features: the structure of the underlying social network and the set of people who shared the piece of information. Often, both features are not publicly available (i.e., access to the two features is limited only to the internal administrators of the platform) and difficult to be estimated from data. As a solution, we propose two methods to estimate the exposure to a piece of information in an unbiased manner: a vanilla method which is based on sampling the network uniformly and a method which non-uniformly samples the network motivated by the Friendship Paradox. We provide theoretical results which characterize the conditions (in terms of properties of the network and the piece of information) under which one method outperforms the other. Further, we outline extensions of the proposed methods to dynamic information cascades (where the exposure needs to be tracked in real-time). We demonstrate the practical feasibility of the proposed methods via experiments on multiple synthetic and real-world datasets.

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arXiv2022

Lyapunov based Stochastic Stability of a Quantum Decision System for Human-Machine Interaction

In mathematical psychology, decision makers are modeled using the Lindbladian equations from quantum mechanics to capture important human-centric features such as order effects and violation of the sure thing principle. We consider human-machine interaction involving a quantum decision maker (human) and a controller (machine). Given a sequence of human decisions over time, how can the controller dynamically provide input messages to adapt these decisions so as to converge to a specific decision? We show via novel stochastic Lyapunov arguments how the Lindbladian dynamics of the quantum decision maker can be controlled to converge to a specific decision asymptotically. Our methodology yields a useful mathematical framework for human-sensor decision making. The stochastic Lyapunov results are also of independent interest as they generalize recent results in the literature.

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arXiv2022

Inverse-Inverse Reinforcement Learning. How to Hide Strategy from an Adversarial Inverse Reinforcement Learner

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) deals with estimating an agent's utility function from its actions. In this paper, we consider how an agent can hide its strategy and mitigate an adversarial IRL attack; we call this inverse IRL (I-IRL). How should the decision maker choose its response to ensure a poor reconstruction of its strategy by an adversary performing IRL to estimate the agent's strategy? This paper comprises four results: First, we present an adversarial IRL algorithm that estimates the agent's strategy while controlling the agent's utility function. Our second result for I-IRL result spoofs the IRL algorithm used by the adversary. Our I-IRL results are based on revealed preference theory in micro-economics. The key idea is for the agent to deliberately choose sub-optimal responses that sufficiently masks its true strategy. Third, we give a sample complexity result for our main I-IRL result when the agent has noisy estimates of the adversary specified utility function. Finally, we illustrate our I-IRL scheme in a radar problem where a meta-cognitive radar is trying to mitigate an adversarial target.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Meta-Cognition. An Inverse-Inverse Reinforcement Learning Approach for Cognitive Radars

This paper considers meta-cognitive radars in an adversarial setting. A cognitive radar optimally adapts its waveform (response) in response to maneuvers (probes) of a possibly adversarial moving target. A meta-cognitive radar is aware of the adversarial nature of the target and seeks to mitigate the adversarial target. How should the meta-cognitive radar choose its responses to sufficiently confuse the adversary trying to estimate the radar's utility function? This paper abstracts the radar's meta-cognition problem in terms of the spectra (eigenvalues) of the state and observation noise covariance matrices, and embeds the algebraic Riccati equation into an economics-based utility maximization setup. This adversarial target is an inverse reinforcement learner. By observing a noisy sequence of radar's responses (waveforms), the adversarial target uses a statistical hypothesis test to detect if the radar is a utility maximizer. In turn, the meta-cognitive radar deliberately chooses sub-optimal responses that increasing its Type-I error probability of the adversary's detector. We call this counter-adversarial step taken by the meta-cognitive radar as inverse inverse reinforcement learning (I-IRL). We illustrate the meta-cognition results of this paper via simple numerical examples. Our approach for meta-cognition in this paper is based on revealed preference theory in micro-economics and inspired by results in differential privacy and adversarial obfuscation in machine learning.

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