arXiv subjects

Vikram Krishnamurthy

Publications and source records attributed to Vikram Krishnamurthy.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Lyapunov based Stochastic Stability of Human-Machine Interaction: A Quantum Decision System Approach

In mathematical psychology, decision makers are modeled using the Lindbladian equations from quantum mechanics to capture important human-centric features such as order effects and violation of the sure thing principle. We consider human-machine interaction involving a quantum decision maker (human) and a controller (machine). Given a sequence of human decisions over time, how can the controller dynamically provide input messages to adapt these decisions so as to converge to a specific decision? We show via novel stochastic Lyapunov arguments how the Lindbladian dynamics of the quantum decision maker can be controlled to converge to a specific decision asymptotically. Our methodology yields a useful mathematical framework for human-sensor decision making. The stochastic Lyapunov results are also of independent interest as they generalize recent results in the literature.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Hawkes Process Modeling of Block Arrivals in Bitcoin Blockchain

The paper constructs a multi-variate Hawkes process model of Bitcoin block arrivals and price jumps. Hawkes processes are selfexciting point processes that can capture the self- and cross-excitation effects of block mining and Bitcoin price volatility. We use publicly available blockchain datasets to estimate the model parameters via maximum likelihood estimation. The results show that Bitcoin price volatility boost block mining rate and Bitcoin investment return demonstrates mean reversion. Quantile-Quantile plots show that the proposed Hawkes process model is a better fit to the blockchain datasets than a Poisson process model.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2021

Principal Agent Problem as a Principled Approach to Electronic Counter-Countermeasures in Radar

Electronic countermeasures (ECM) against a radar are actions taken by an adversarial jammer to mitigate effective utilization of the electromagnetic spectrum by the radar. On the other hand, electronic counter-countermeasures (ECCM) are actions taken by the radar to mitigate the impact of electronic countermeasures (ECM) so that the radar can continue to operate effectively. The main idea of this paper is to show that ECCM involving a radar and a jammer can be formulated as a principal-agent problem (PAP) - a problem widely studied in microeconomics. With the radar as the principal and the jammer as the agent, we design a PAP to optimize the radar's ECCM strategy in the presence of a jammer. The radar seeks to optimally trade-off signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the target measurement with the measurement cost: cost for generating radiation power for the pulse to probe the target. We show that for a suitable choice of utility functions, PAP is a convex optimization problem. Further, we analyze the structure of the PAP and provide sufficient conditions under which the optimal solution is an increasing function of the jamming power observed by the radar; this enables computation of the radar's optimal ECCM within the class of increasing affine functions at a low computation cost. Finally, we illustrate the PAP formulation of the radar's ECCM problem via numerical simulations. We also use simulations to study a radar's ECCM problem wherein the radar and the jammer have mismatched information.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2021

How can a Cognitive Radar Mask its Cognition?

We study how a cognitive radar can mask (hide) its cognitive ability from an adversarial jamming device. Specifically, if the radar optimally adapts its waveform based on adversarial target maneuvers (probes), how should the radar choose its waveform parameters (response) so that its utility function cannot be recovered by the adversary. This paper abstracts the radar's cognition masking problem in terms of the spectra (eigenvalues) of the state and observation noise covariance matrices, and embeds the algebraic Riccati equation into an economics-based utility maximization setup. Given an observed sequence of radar responses, the adversary tests for utility maximization behavior of the radar and estimates its utility function that rationalizes the radar's responses. In turn, the radar deliberately chooses sub-optimal responses so that its utility function almost fails the utility maximization test, and hence, its cognitive ability is masked from the adversary. We illustrate the performance of our cognition masking scheme via simple numerical examples. Our approach in this paper is based on revealed preference theory in microeconomics for identifying rationality.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2021

Controlling Segregation in Social Network Dynamics as an Edge Formation Game

This paper studies controlling segregation in social networks via exogenous incentives. We construct an edge formation game on a directed graph. A user (node) chooses the probability with which it forms an inter- or intra- community edge based on a utility function that reflects the tradeoff between homophily (preference to connect with individuals that belong to the same group) and the preference to obtain an exogenous incentive. Decisions made by the users to connect with each other determine the evolution of the social network. We explore an algorithmic recommendation mechanism where the exogenous incentive in the utility function is based on weak ties which incentivizes users to connect across communities and mitigates the segregation. This setting leads to a submodular game with a unique Nash equilibrium. In numerical simulations, we explore how the proposed model can be useful in controlling segregation and echo chambers in social networks under various settings.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Rationally Inattentive Utility Maximization for Interpretable Deep Image Classification

Are deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for image classification explainable by utility maximization with information acquisition costs? We demonstrate that deep CNNs behave equivalently (in terms of necessary and sufficient conditions) to rationally inattentive utility maximizers, a generative model used extensively in economics for human decision making. Our claim is based by extensive experiments on 200 deep CNNs from 5 popular architectures. The parameters of our interpretable model are computed efficiently via convex feasibility algorithms. As an application, we show that our economics-based interpretable model can predict the classification performance of deep CNNs trained with arbitrary parameters with accuracy exceeding 94% . This eliminates the need to re-train the deep CNNs for image classification. The theoretical foundation of our approach lies in Bayesian revealed preference studied in micro-economics. All our results are on GitHub and completely reproducible.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Adversarial Radar Inference: Inverse Tracking, Identifying Cognition and Designing Smart Interference

This paper considers three inter-related adversarial inference problems involving cognitive radars. We first discuss inverse tracking of the radar to estimate the adversary's estimate of us based on the radar's actions and calibrate the radar's sensing accuracy. Second, using revealed preference from microeconomics, we formulate a non-parametric test to identify if the cognitive radar is a constrained utility maximizer with signal processing constraints. We consider two radar functionalities, namely, beam allocation and waveform design, with respect to which the cognitive radar is assumed to maximize its utility and construct a set-valued estimator for the radar's utility function. Finally, we discuss how to engineer interference at the physical layer level to confuse the radar which forces it to change its transmit waveform. The levels of abstraction range from smart interference design based on Wiener filters (at the pulse/waveform level), inverse Kalman filters at the tracking level and revealed preferences for identifying utility maximization at the systems level.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2021

Distributed learning in congested environments with partial information

How can non-communicating agents learn to share congested resources efficiently? This is a challenging task when the agents can access the same resource simultaneously (in contrast to multi-agent multi-armed bandit problems) and the resource valuations differ among agents. We present a fully distributed algorithm for learning to share in congested environments and prove that the agents' regret with respect to the optimal allocation is poly-logarithmic in the time horizon. Performance in the non-asymptotic regime is illustrated in numerical simulations. The distributed algorithm has applications in cloud computing and spectrum sharing. Keywords: Distributed learning, congestion games, poly-logarithmic regret.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2021

Emergence of Structural Inequalities in Scientific Citation Networks

Structural inequalities persist in society, conferring systematic advantages to some people at the expense of others, for example, by giving them substantially more influence and opportunities. Using bibliometric data about authors of scientific publications, we identify two types of structural inequalities in scientific citations. First, female authors, who represent a minority of researchers, receive less recognition for their work (through citations) relative to male authors; second, authors affiliated with top-ranked institutions, who are also a minority, receive substantially more recognition compared to other authors. We present a model for the growth of directed citation networks and show that citations disparities arise from individual preferences to cite authors from the same group (homophily), highly cited or active authors (preferential attachment), as well as the size of the group and how frequently new authors join. We analyze the model and show that its predictions align well with real-world observations. Our theoretical and empirical analysis also suggests potential strategies to mitigate structural inequalities in science. In particular, we find that merely increasing the minority group size does little to narrow the disparities. Instead, reducing the homophily of each group, frequently adding new authors to a research field while providing them an accessible platform among existing, established authors, together with balanced group sizes can have the largest impact on reducing inequality. Our work highlights additional complexities of mitigating structural disparities stemming from asymmetric relations (e.g., directed citations) compared to symmetric relations (e.g., collaborations).

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

A Directed, Bi-Populated Preferential Attachment Model with Applications to Analyzing the Glass Ceiling Effect

Preferential attachment, homophily and, their consequences such as the glass ceiling effect have been well-studied in the context of undirected networks. However, the lack of an intuitive, theoretically tractable model of a directed, bi-populated~(i.e.,~containing two groups) network with variable levels of preferential attachment, homophily and growth dynamics~(e.g.,~the rate at which new nodes join, whether the new nodes mostly follow existing nodes or the existing nodes follow them, etc.) has largely prevented such consequences from being explored in the context of directed networks, where they more naturally occur due to the asymmetry of links. To this end, we present a rigorous theoretical analysis of the \emph{Directed Mixed Preferential Attachment} model and, use it to analyze the glass ceiling effect in directed networks. More specifically, we derive the closed-form expressions for the power-law exponents of the in- and out- degree distributions of each group~(minority and majority) and, compare them with each other to obtain insights. In particular, our results yield answers to questions such as: \emph{when does the minority group have a heavier out-degree (or in-degree) distribution compared to the majority group? what effect does frequent addition of edges between existing nodes have on the in- and out- degree distributions of the majority and minority groups?}. Such insights shed light on the interplay between the structure~(i.e., the in- and out- degree distributions of the two groups) and dynamics~(characterized collectively by the homophily, preferential attachment, group sizes and growth dynamics) of various real-world networks. Finally, we utilize the obtained analytical results to characterize the conditions under which the glass ceiling effect emerge in a directed network. Our analytical results are supported by detailed numerical results.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Power-law Degree Distributions via Friendship Paradox based Sampling

This paper considers the problem of estimating a power-law degree distribution of an undirected network using sampled data. Although power-law degree distributions are ubiquitous in nature, the widely used parametric methods for estimating them (e.g. linear regression on double-logarithmic axes, maximum likelihood estimation with uniformly sampled nodes) suffer from the large variance introduced by the lack of data-points from the tail portion of the power-law degree distribution. As a solution, we present a novel maximum likelihood estimation approach that exploits the friendship paradox to sample more efficiently from the tail of the degree distribution. We analytically show that the proposed method results in a smaller bias, variance and a Cramer-Rao lower bound compared to the vanilla maximum-likelihood estimate obtained with uniformly sampled nodes (which is the most commonly used method in literature). Detailed numerical and empirical results are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed method under different conditions and how it compares with alternative methods. We also show that the proposed method and its desirable properties (i.e. smaller bias, variance and Cramer-Rao lower bound compared to vanilla method based on uniform samples) extend to parametric degree distributions other than the power-law such as exponential degree distributions as well. All the numerical and empirical results are reproducible and the code is publicly available on Github.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Multi-kernel Passive Stochastic Gradient Algorithms and Transfer Learning

This paper develops a novel passive stochastic gradient algorithm. In passive stochastic approximation, the stochastic gradient algorithm does not have control over the location where noisy gradients of the cost function are evaluated. Classical passive stochastic gradient algorithms use a kernel that approximates a Dirac delta to weigh the gradients based on how far they are evaluated from the desired point. In this paper we construct a multi-kernel passive stochastic gradient algorithm. The algorithm performs substantially better in high dimensional problems and incorporates variance reduction. We analyze the weak convergence of the multi-kernel algorithm and its rate of convergence. In numerical examples, we study the multi-kernel version of the passive least mean squares (LMS) algorithm for transfer learning to compare the performance with the classical passive version.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Langevin Dynamics for Adaptive Inverse Reinforcement Learning of Stochastic Gradient Algorithms

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to estimate the reward function of optimizing agents by observing their response (estimates or actions). This paper considers IRL when noisy estimates of the gradient of a reward function generated by multiple stochastic gradient agents are observed. We present a generalized Langevin dynamics algorithm to estimate the reward function $R(θ)$; specifically, the resulting Langevin algorithm asymptotically generates samples from the distribution proportional to $\exp(R(θ))$. The proposed IRL algorithms use kernel-based passive learning schemes. We also construct multi-kernel passive Langevin algorithms for IRL which are suitable for high dimensional data. The performance of the proposed IRL algorithms are illustrated on examples in adaptive Bayesian learning, logistic regression (high dimensional problem) and constrained Markov decision processes. We prove weak convergence of the proposed IRL algorithms using martingale averaging methods. We also analyze the tracking performance of the IRL algorithms in non-stationary environments where the utility function $R(θ)$ jump changes over time as a slow Markov chain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Echo Chambers and Segregation in Social Networks: Markov Bridge Models and Estimation

This paper deals with the modeling and estimation of the sociological phenomena called echo chambers and segregation in social networks. Specifically, we present a novel community-based graph model that represents the emergence of segregated echo chambers as a Markov bridge process. A Markov bridge is a one-dimensional Markov random field that facilitates modeling the formation and disassociation of communities at deterministic times which is important in social networks with known timed events. We justify the proposed model with six real world examples and examine its performance on a recent Twitter dataset. We provide model parameter estimation algorithm based on maximum likelihood and, a Bayesian filtering algorithm for recursively estimating the level of segregation using noisy samples obtained from the network. Numerical results indicate that the proposed filtering algorithm outperforms the conventional hidden Markov modeling in terms of the mean-squared error. The proposed filtering method is useful in computational social science where data-driven estimation of the level of segregation from noisy data is required.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Controllability of Network Opinion in Erdos-Renyi Graphs using Sparse Control Inputs

This paper considers a social network modeled as an Erdos Renyi random graph. Each individual in the network updates her opinion using the weighted average of the opinions of her neighbors. We explore how an external manipulative agent can drive the opinions of these individuals to a desired state with a limited additive influence on their innate opinions. We show that the manipulative agent can steer the network opinion to any arbitrary value in finite time (i.e., the system is controllable) almost surely when there is no restriction on her influence. However, when the control input is sparsity constrained, the network opinion is controllable with some probability. We lower bound this probability using the concentration properties of random vectors based on the Levy concentration function and small ball probabilities. Further, through numerical simulations, we compare the probability of controllability in Erdos Renyi graphs with that of power-law graphs to illustrate the key differences between the two models in terms of controllability. Our theoretical and numerical results shed light on how controllability of the network opinion depends on the parameters such as the size and the connectivity of the network, and the sparsity constraints faced by the manipulative agent.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Quickest Change Detection of Time Inconsistent Anticipatory Agents. Human-Sensor and Cyber-Physical Systems

In behavioral economics, human decision makers are modeled as anticipatory agents that make decisions by taking into account the probability of future decisions (plans). We consider cyber-physical systems involving the interaction between anticipatory agents and statistical detection. A sensing device records the decisions of an anticipatory agent. Given these decisions, how can the sensing device achieve quickest detection of a change in the anticipatory system? From a decision theoretic point of view, anticipatory models are time inconsistent meaning that Bellman's principle of optimality does not hold. The appropriate formalism is the subgame Nash equilibrium. We show that the interaction between anticipatory agents and sequential quickest detection results in unusual (nonconvex) structure of the quickest change detection policy. Our methodology yields a useful framework for situation awareness systems and anticipatory human decision makers interacting with sequential detectors.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Adaptive Non-reversible Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics

It is well known that adding any skew symmetric matrix to the gradient of Langevin dynamics algorithm results in a non-reversible diffusion with improved convergence rate. This paper presents a gradient algorithm to adaptively optimize the choice of the skew symmetric matrix. The resulting algorithm involves a non-reversible diffusion algorithm cross coupled with a stochastic gradient algorithm that adapts the skew symmetric matrix. The algorithm uses the same data as the classical Langevin algorithm. A weak convergence proof is given for the optimality of the choice of the skew symmetric matrix. The improved convergence rate of the algorithm is illustrated numerically in Bayesian learning and tracking examples.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

A Markov Decision Process Approach to Active Meta Learning

In supervised learning, we fit a single statistical model to a given data set, assuming that the data is associated with a singular task, which yields well-tuned models for specific use, but does not adapt well to new contexts. By contrast, in meta-learning, the data is associated with numerous tasks, and we seek a model that may perform well on all tasks simultaneously, in pursuit of greater generalization. One challenge in meta-learning is how to exploit relationships between tasks and classes, which is overlooked by commonly used random or cyclic passes through data. In this work, we propose actively selecting samples on which to train by discerning covariates inside and between meta-training sets. Specifically, we cast the problem of selecting a sample from a number of meta-training sets as either a multi-armed bandit or a Markov Decision Process (MDP), depending on how one encapsulates correlation across tasks. We develop scheduling schemes based on Upper Confidence Bound (UCB), Gittins Index and tabular Markov Decision Problems (MDPs) solved with linear programming, where the reward is the scaled statistical accuracy to ensure it is a time-invariant function of state and action. Across a variety of experimental contexts, we observe significant reductions in sample complexity of active selection scheme relative to cyclic or i.i.d. sampling, demonstrating the merit of exploiting covariates in practice.

cs.LG↗