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Vincent Rivoirard

Publications and source records attributed to Vincent Rivoirard.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Minimax estimation of Functional Principal Components from noisy discretized functional data: the case of smooth processes

We study the minimax estimation of covariance eigenfunctions and eigenvalues in functional principal component analysis when $n$ trajectories are observed at $p$ common grid points with additive noise. We consider covariance kernels with arbitrary Hölder smoothness and no prescribed parametric decay of the eigenvalues. In this setting, kernel smoothness and local spectral separation play distinct roles: a minimax inconsistency result over the smoothness-only class shows that kernel regularity alone is not sufficient for minimax-consistent eigenfunction estimation. To capture this interplay, we introduce a class of processes that jointly controls the Hölder smoothness of the covariance kernel and a local relative inverse eigengap quantity at the target index $\ell$. Over this class, we derive non-asymptotic minimax lower bounds for eigenfunction estimation that disentangle sampling variability, discretization and spectral effects, revealing rates of order $δ_\ell n^{-1}+p^{-2α}$, where $δ_\ell$ quantifies the spectral difficulty. We also obtain non-asymptotic lower bounds for eigenvalue estimation under a relative squared-error loss. We then construct a computable wavelet projection estimator based on Coiflet scaling functions and a quadrature scheme designed to accommodate arbitrary Hölder smoothness. For eigenfunction estimation, this estimator matches the minimax dependence on the sample size and grid resolution, up to the natural spectral factor, for any Hölder index $α>0$. Finally, we show that the proposed framework covers several classical Gaussian processes and Karhunen--Loève constructions. In particular, a Karhunen--Loève based criterion links spectral decay, eigenfunction regularity and covariance-kernel smoothness, and yields controlled simulation settings illustrating the predicted phase transitions and least-favourable discretization effects.

math.ST

Non-asymptotic two-sample kernel testing with the spectrally truncated normalized MMD

Kernel methods provide a flexible and powerful framework for nonparametric statistical testing by embedding probability distributions into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). In this work, we study the kernel two-sample testing problem and focus on a normalized version of the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) as a test statistic, which scales the discrepancy by the within-group covariance operator to account for data variability. This normalization has been shown to improve test power in both theoretical and empirical settings. Because this normalization requires regularization, we study the non-asymptotic properties of the spectrally truncated normalized MMD (st-nMMD) and derive an exponential upper bound under the null hypothesis. Thanks to this result we propose a sharp and explicit upper bound for the corresponding non-asymptotic quantile, along with a data-adaptive estimator. We further propose an algorithm to tune the hyperparameters involved in the quantile estimation, including the truncation level, without requiring data splitting. We demonstrate the performance of the st-nMMD through numerical experiments under both the null and alternative hypotheses.

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Goodness-of-fit testing for the stationary density of a size-structured PDE

We consider two division models for structured cell populations, where cells can grow, age and divide. These models have been introduced in the literature under the denomination of `mitosis' and `adder' models. In the recent years, there has been an increasing interest in biology to understand whether the cells divide equally or not, as this can be related to important mechanisms in cellular aging or recovery. We are therefore interested in testing the null hypothesis $H_0$ where the division of a mother cell results into two daughters of equal size, against the alternative hypothesis $H_1$ where the division is asymmetric and ruled by a kernel that is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure. The sample consists of i.i.d. observations of cell sizes and ages drawn from the population, and the division is not directly observed. The hypotheses of the test are reformulated as hypotheses on the stationary size and age distributions of the models, which we assume are also the distributions of the observations. We propose a goodness-of-fit test that we study numerically on simulated data before applying it on real data.

stat.ME

PCA for Point Processes

We introduce a novel statistical framework for the analysis of replicated point processes that allows for the study of point pattern variability at a population level. By treating point process realizations as random measures, we adopt a functional analysis perspective and propose a form of functional Principal Component Analysis (fPCA) for point processes. The originality of our method is to base our analysis on the cumulative mass functions of the random measures which gives us a direct and interpretable analysis. Key theoretical contributions include establishing a Karhunen-Loève expansion for the random measures and a Mercer Theorem for covariance measures. We establish convergence in a strong sense, and introduce the concept of principal measures, which can be seen as latent processes governing the dynamics of the observed point patterns. We propose an easy-to-implement estimation strategy of eigenelements for which parametric rates are achieved. We fully characterize the solutions of our approach to Poisson and Hawkes processes and validate our methodology via simulations and diverse applications in seismology, single-cell biology and neurosiences, demonstrating its versatility and effectiveness. Our method is implemented in the pppca R-package.

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Estimation in linear high dimensional Hawkes processes: a Bayesian approach

In this paper we study the frequentist properties of Bayesian approaches in linear high dimensional Hawkes processes in a sparse regime where the number of interaction functions acting on each component of the Hawkes process is much smaller than the dimension. We consider two types of loss function: the empirical $L_1$ distance between the intensity functions of the process and the $L_1$ norm on the parameters (background rates and interaction functions). Our results are the first results to control the $L_1$ norm on the parameters under such a framework. They are also the first results to study Bayesian procedures in high dimensional Hawkes processes.

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Minimax estimation of Functional Principal Components from noisy discretized functional data

Functional Principal Component Analysis is a reference method for dimension reduction of curve data. Its theoretical properties are now well understood in the simplified case where the sample curves are fully observed without noise. However, functional data are noisy and necessarily observed on a finite discretization grid. Common practice consists in smoothing the data and then to compute the functional estimates, but the impact of this denoising step on the procedure's statistical performance are rarely considered. Here we prove new convergence rates for functional principal component estimators. We introduce a double asymptotic framework: one corresponding to the sampling size and a second to the size of the grid. We prove that estimates based on projection onto histograms show optimal rates in a minimax sense. Theoretical results are illustrated on simulated data and the method is applied to the visualization of genomic data.

stat.ME

Concentration inequalities and cut-off phenomena for penalized model selection within a basic Rademacher framework

This article exists first and foremost to contribute to a tribute to Patrick Cattiaux. One of the two authors has known Patrick Cattiaux for a very long time, and owes him a great deal. If we are to illustrate the adage that life is made up of chance, then what could be better than the meeting of two young people in the 80s, both of whom fell in love with the mathematics of randomness, and one of whom changed the other's life by letting him in on a secret: if you really believe in it, you can turn this passion into a profession. By another happy coincidence, this tribute comes at just the right time, as Michel Talagrand has been awarded the Abel prize. The temptation was therefore great to do a double. Following one of the many galleries opened up by mathematics, we shall first draw a link between the mathematics of Patrick Cattiaux and that of Michel Talagrand. Then we shall show how the abstract probabilistic material on the concentration of product measures thus revisited can be used to shed light on cut-off phenomena in our field of expertise, mathematical statistics. Nothing revolutionary here, as everyone knows the impact that Talagrand's work has had on the development of mathematical statistics since the late 90s, but we've chosen a very simple framework in which everything can be explained with minimal technicality, leaving the main ideas to the fore.

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Is model selection possible for the $\ell_p$-loss? PCO estimation for regression models

This paper addresses the problem of model selection in the sequence model $Y=θ+\varepsilonξ$, when $ξ$ is sub-Gaussian, for non-euclidian loss-functions. In this model, the Penalized Comparison to Overfitting procedure is studied for the weighted $\ell_p$-loss, $p\geq 1.$ Several oracle inequalities are derived from concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull variables. Using judicious collections of models and penalty terms, minimax rates of convergence are stated for Besov bodies $\mathcal{B}_{r,\infty}^s$. These results are applied to the functional model of nonparametric regression.

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Scalable and adaptive variational Bayes methods for Hawkes processes

Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the temporal dependence structure of Hawkes processes is generally a computationally expensive task, all the more with Bayesian estimation methods. In particular, for generalised nonlinear Hawkes processes, Monte-Carlo Markov Chain methods applied to compute the doubly intractable posterior distribution are not scalable to high-dimensional processes in practice. Recently, efficient algorithms targeting a mean-field variational approximation of the posterior distribution have been proposed. In this work, we first unify existing variational Bayes approaches under a general nonparametric inference framework, and analyse the asymptotic properties of these methods under easily verifiable conditions on the prior, the variational class, and the nonlinear model. Secondly, we propose a novel sparsity-inducing procedure, and derive an adaptive mean-field variational algorithm for the popular sigmoid Hawkes processes. Our algorithm is parallelisable and therefore computationally efficient in high-dimensional setting. Through an extensive set of numerical simulations, we also demonstrate that our procedure is able to adapt to the dimensionality of the parameter of the Hawkes process, and is partially robust to some type of model mis-specification.

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Adaptive warped kernel estimation for nonparametric regression with circular responses

In this paper, we deal with nonparametric regression for circular data, meaning that observations are represented by points lying on the unit circle. We propose a kernel estimation procedure with data-driven selection of the bandwidth parameter. For this purpose, we use a warping strategy combined with a Goldenshluger-Lepski type estimator. To study optimality of our methodology, we consider the minimax setting and prove, by establishing upper and lower bounds, that our procedure is nearly optimal on anisotropic Holder classes of functions for pointwise estimation. The obtained rates also reveal the specific nature of regression for circular responses. Finally, a numerical study is conducted, illustrating the good performances of our approach.

math.ST

Eve, Adam and the Preferential Attachment Tree

We consider the problem of finding the initial vertex (Adam) in a Barabási--Albert tree process $(\mathcal{T}(n) : n \geq 1)$ at large times. More precisely, given $ \varepsilon>0$, one wants to output a subset $ \mathcal{P}_{ \varepsilon}(n)$ of vertices of $ \mathcal{T}(n)$ so that the initial vertex belongs to $ \mathcal{P}_ \varepsilon(n)$ with probability at least $1- \varepsilon$ when $n$ is large. It has been shown by Bubeck, Devroye & Lugosi, refined later by Banerjee & Huang, that one needs to output at least $ \varepsilon^{-1 + o(1)}$ and at most $\varepsilon^{-2 + o(1)}$ vertices to succeed. We prove that the exponent in the lower bound is sharp and the key idea is that Adam is either a ``large degree" vertex or is a neighbor of a ``large degree" vertex (Eve).

math.PR

Bayesian estimation of nonlinear Hawkes process

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of occurrences of new events depend on the past of the process is the Hawkes process. In this work we consider the nonlinear Hawkes process, which notably models excitation and inhibition phenomena between dimensions of the process. In a nonparametric Bayesian estimation framework, we obtain concentration rates of the posterior distribution on the parameters, under mild assumptions on the prior distribution and the model. These results also lead to convergence rates of Bayesian estimators. Another object of interest in event-data modelling is to recover the graph of interaction - or Granger connectivity graph - of the phenomenon. We provide consistency guarantees on Bayesian methods for estimating this quantity; in particular, we prove that the posterior distribution is consistent on the graph adjacency matrix of the process, as well as a Bayesian estimator based on an adequate loss function.

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Uniform Deconvolution for Poisson Point Processes

We focus on the estimation of the intensity of a Poisson process in the presence of a uniform noise. We propose a kernel-based procedure fully calibrated in theory and practice. We show that our adaptive estimator is optimal from the oracle and minimax points of view, and provide new lower bounds when the intensity belongs to a Sobolev ball. By developing the Goldenshluger-Lepski methodology in the case of deconvolution for Poisson processes, we propose an optimal data-driven selection of the kernel bandwidth. Our method is illustrated on the spatial distribution of replication origins and sequence motifs along the human genome.

stat.ME

Adaptive greedy algorithm for moderately large dimensions in kernel conditional density estimation

This paper studies the estimation of the conditional density f (x, $\times$) of Y i given X i = x, from the observation of an i.i.d. sample (X i , Y i) $\in$ R d , i = 1,. .. , n. We assume that f depends only on r unknown components with typically r d. We provide an adaptive fully-nonparametric strategy based on kernel rules to estimate f. To select the bandwidth of our kernel rule, we propose a new fast iterative algorithm inspired by the Rodeo algorithm (Wasserman and Lafferty (2006)) to detect the sparsity structure of f. More precisely, in the minimax setting, our pointwise estimator, which is adaptive to both the regularity and the sparsity, achieves the quasi-optimal rate of convergence. Its computational complexity is only O(dn log n).

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Nonparametric estimation of the fragmentation kernel based on a PDE stationary distribution approximation

We consider a stochastic individual-based model in continuous time to describe a size-structured population for cell divisions. This model is motivated by the detection of cellular aging in biology. We address here the problem of nonparametric estimation of the kernel ruling the divisions based on the eigenvalue problem related to the asymptotic behavior in large population. This inverse problem involves a multiplicative deconvolution operator. Using Fourier technics we derive a nonparametric estimator whose consistency is studied. The main difficulty comes from the non-standard equations connecting the Fourier transforms of the kernel and the parameters of the model. A numerical study is carried out and we pay special attention to the derivation of bandwidths by using resampling.

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Statistical deconvolution of the free Fokker-Planck equation at fixed time

We are interested in reconstructing the initial condition of a non-linear partial differential equation (PDE), namely the Fokker-Planck equation, from the observation of a Dyson Brownian motion at a given time $t>0$. The Fokker-Planck equation describes the evolution of electrostatic repulsive particle systems, and can be seen as the large particle limit of correctly renormalized Dyson Brownian motions. The solution of the Fokker-Planck equation can be written as the free convolution of the initial condition and the semi-circular distribution. We propose a nonparametric estimator for the initial condition obtained by performing the free deconvolution via the subordination functions method. This statistical estimator is original as it involves the resolution of a fixed point equation, and a classical deconvolution by a Cauchy distribution. This is due to the fact that, in free probability, the analogue of the Fourier transform is the R-transform, related to the Cauchy transform. In past literature, there has been a focus on the estimation of the initial conditions of linear PDEs such as the heat equation, but to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the problem is tackled for a non-linear PDE. The convergence of the estimator is proved and the integrated mean square error is computed, providing rates of convergence similar to the ones known for non-parametric deconvolution methods. Finally, a simulation study illustrates the good performances of our estimator.

math.PR

Numerical performance of Penalized Comparison to Overfitting for multivariate kernel density estimation

Kernel density estimation is a well known method involving a smoothing parameter (the bandwidth) that needs to be tuned by the user. Although this method has been widely used the bandwidth selection remains a challenging issue in terms of balancing algorithmic performance and statistical relevance. The purpose of this paper is to compare a recently developped bandwidth selection method for kernel density estimation to those which are commonly used by now (at least those which are implemented in the R-package). This new method is called Penalized Comparison to Overfitting (PCO). It has been proposed by some of the authors of this paper in a previous work devoted to its statistical relevance from a purely theoretical perspective. It is compared here to other usual bandwidth selection methods for univariate and also multivariate kernel density estimation on the basis of intensive simulation studies. In particular, cross-validation and plug-in criteria are numerically investigated and compared to PCO. The take home message is that PCO can outperform the classical methods without algorithmic additionnal cost.

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Adaptive Supremum Norm Posterior Contraction: Wavelet Spike-and-Slab and Anisotropic Besov Spaces

Supremum norm loss is intuitively more meaningful to quantify function estimation error in statistics. In the context of multivariate nonparametric regression with unknown error, we propose a Bayesian procedure based on spike-and-slab prior and wavelet projections to estimate the regression function and all its mixed partial derivatives. We show that their posterior distributions contract to the truth optimally and adaptively under supremum-norm loss. The master theorem through tests with exponential errors used in Bayesian nonparametrics was not adequate to deal with this problem, and we developed a new idea such that posterior under the regression model is systematically reduced to a posterior arising from some quasi-white noise model, where the latter model greatly simplifies our rate calculations. Hence, this paper takes the first step in showing explicitly how one can translate results from white noise to regression model in a Bayesian setting.

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