arXiv subjects

Vito Latora

Publications and source records attributed to Vito Latora.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Individual- and pair-based models of epidemic spreading: master equations and analysis of their forecasting capabilities

Mathematical modeling of disease spreading plays a crucial role in understanding, controlling and preventing epidemic outbreaks. In a microscopic description of the propagation of a disease over the complex network of human contacts, the probability that an individual is in a given state (susceptible, infectious, recovered etc) depends on the state of its neighbors in the network. Thus it depends on the state of pairs of nodes, which in turns depends on triples, in a hierarchy of dynamical dependencies. In order to produce models that are at the same time reliable and manageable, one has to understand how to truncate such a hierarchy, and how the chosen order of approximation affects the ability of the model to forecast the real temporal evolution of an epidemics. In this paper we provide a systematic analysis of the reliability (under different hypotheses on the quantity and quality of available data) of the predictions obtained by truncating the hierarchy either at the level of individuals or at the level of pairs. We find that pair-based models are reliable tools both for estimating the epidemiological parameters and for forecasting the temporal evolution of the epidemics, under all conditions taken into account in our work. However, a pair-based approach provides a much better prediction of an individual-based one, only if better data, namely information on the state of node pairs, are available. Overall, our results suggest that more refined mathematical models need to be informed by improved contact tracing techniques to better support decision on policies and containment measures to adopt.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Influential groups for seeding and sustaining nonlinear contagion in heterogeneous hypergraphs

Several biological and social contagion phenomena, such as superspreading events or social reinforcement, are the results of multi-body interactions, for which hypergraphs offer a natural mathematical description. In this paper, we develop a novel mathematical framework based on approximate master equations to study contagions on random hypergraphs with a heterogeneous structure, both in terms of group size (hyperedge cardinality) and of membership of nodes to groups (hyperdegree). The characterization of the inner dynamics of groups provides an accurate description of the contagion process, without losing the analytical tractability. Using a contagion model where multi-body interactions are mapped onto a nonlinear infection rate, our two main results show how large groups are influential, in the sense that they drive both the early spread of a contagion and its endemic state (i.e., its stationary state). First, we provide a detailed characterization of the phase transition, which can be continuous or discontinuous with a bistable regime, and derive analytical expressions for the critical and tricritical points. We find that large values of the third moment of the membership distribution suppress the emergence of a discontinuous phase transition. Furthermore, the combination of heterogeneous group sizes and nonlinear contagion facilitates the onset of a mesoscopic localization phase, where contagion is sustained only by the largest groups, thereby inhibiting bistability as well. Second, we formulate the problem of optimal seeding for hypergraph contagion, and we compare two strategies: tuning the allocation of seeds according to either individual node or group properties. We find that, when the contagion is sufficiently nonlinear, groups are more effective seeds of contagion than individual nodes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Unified treatment of synchronization patterns in generalized networks with higher-order, multilayer, and temporal interactions

When describing complex interconnected systems, one often has to go beyond the standard network description to account for generalized interactions. Here, we establish a unified framework to simplify the stability analysis of cluster synchronization patterns for a wide range of generalized networks, including hypergraphs, multilayer networks, and temporal networks. The framework is based on finding a simultaneous block diagonalization of the matrices encoding the synchronization pattern and the network topology. As an application, we use simultaneous block diagonalization to unveil an intriguing type of chimera states that appear only in the presence of higher-order interactions. The unified framework established here can be extended to other dynamical processes and can facilitate the discovery of emergent phenomena in complex systems with generalized interactions.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2021

Memory Order Decomposition of Symbolic Sequences

We introduce a general method for the study of memory in symbolic sequences based on higher-order Markov analysis. The Markov process that best represents a sequence is expressed as a mixture of matrices of minimal orders, enabling the definition of the so-called memory profile, which unambiguously reflects the true order of correlations. The method is validated by recovering the memory profiles of tunable synthetic sequences. Finally, we scan real data and showcase with practical examples how our protocol can be used to extract relevant stochastic properties of symbolic sequences.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Non-Markovian temporal networks with auto- and cross-correlated link dynamics

Many of the biological, social and man-made networks around us are inherently dynamic, with their links switching on and off over time. The evolution of these networks is often non-Markovian, and the dynamics of their links correlated. Hence, to accurately model these networks, predict their evolution, and understand how information and other quantities propagate over them, the inclusion of both memory and dynamical dependencies between links is key. We here introduce a general class of models of temporal networks based on discrete autoregressive processes. As a case study we concentrate on a specific model within this class, generating temporal networks with a specified underlying backbone, and with precise control over the dynamical dependencies between links and the strength and length of their memories. In this network model the presence of each link is influenced by its own past activity and the past activities of other links, as specified by a coupling matrix, which directly controls the causal relations and correlations among links. We propose a method for estimating the models parameters and how to deal with heterogeneity and time-varying patterns, showing how the model allows for a more realistic description of real world temporal networks and also to predict their evolution. We then investigate the role that memory and correlations in link dynamics have on processes occurring over a temporal network by studying the speed of a spreading process, as measured by the time it takes for diffusion to reach equilibrium. Through both numerical simulations and analytical results, we are able to separate the roles of autocorrelations and neighbourhood correlations in link dynamics, showing that the speed of diffusion is non-monotonically dependent on the memory length, and that correlations among neighbouring links can speed up the spreading process, while autocorrelations slow it down.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2021

Evolutionary dynamics of higher-order interactions in social networks

We live and cooperate in networks. However, links in networks only allow for pairwise interactions, thus making the framework suitable for dyadic games, but not for games that are played in groups of more than two players. Here, we study the evolutionary dynamics of a public goods game in social systems with higher-order interactions. First, we show that the game on uniform hypergraphs corresponds to the replicator dynamics in the well-mixed limit, providing a formal theoretical foundation to study cooperation in networked groups. Secondly, we unveil how the presence of hubs and the coexistence of interactions in groups of different sizes affects the evolution of cooperation. Finally, we apply the proposed framework to extract the actual dependence of the synergy factor on the size of a group from real-world collaboration data in science and technology. Our work provides a way to implement informed actions to boost cooperation in social groups.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Interdisciplinary researchers attain better performance in funding

Interdisciplinary research is fundamental when it comes to tackling complex problems in our highly interlinked world, and is on the rise globally. Yet, it is unclear why--in an increasingly competitive academic environment--one should pursue an interdisciplinary career given its recent negative press. Several studies have indeed shown that interdisciplinary research often achieves lower impact compared to more specialized work, and is less likely to attract funding. We seek to reconcile such evidence by analyzing a dataset of 44,419 research grants awarded between 2006 and 2018 from the seven national research councils in the UK. We compared the research performance of researchers with an interdisciplinary funding track record with those who have a specialized profile. We found that the former dominates the network of academic collaborations, both in terms of centrality and knowledge brokerage; but such a competitive advantage does not immediately translate into impact. Indeed, by means of a matched pair experimental design, we found that researchers who transcend between disciplines on average achieve lower impacts in their publications than the subject specialists in the short run, but eventually outperform them in funding performance, both in terms of volume and value. Our results suggest that launching an interdisciplinary career may require more time and persistence to overcome extra challenges, but can pave the way for a more successful endeavour.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2021

On the dual nature of adoption processes in complex networks

Adoption processes in socio-technological systems have been widely studied both empirically and theoretically. The way in which social norms, behaviors, and even items such as books, music, or other commercial or technological product spread in a population is usually modeled as a process of social contagion, in which the agents of a social system can infect their neighbors on the underlying network of social contacts. More recently, various models have also been proposed to reproduce the typical dynamics of a process of discovery, in which an agent explores a space of relations between ideas or items in search for novelties. In both types of processes, the structure of the underlying networks, respectively, the network of social contacts in the first case, and the network of relations among items in the second one, plays a fundamental role. However, the two processes have been traditionally seen and studied independently. Here, we provide a brief overview of the existing models of social spreading and exploration and of the latest advancements in both directions. We propose to look at them as two complementary aspects of the same adoption process: on the one hand, there are items spreading over a social network of individuals influencing each other, and on the other hand, individuals explore a network of similarities among items to adopt. The two-fold nature of the approach proposed opens up new stimulating challenges for the scientific community of network and data scientists. We conclude by outlining some possible directions that we believe may be relevant to be explored in the coming years.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Artificial intelligence applied to bailout decisions in financial systemic risk management

We describe the bailout of banks by governments as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the actions are equity investments. The underlying dynamics is derived from the network of financial institutions linked by mutual exposures, and the negative rewards are associated to the banks' default. Each node represents a bank and is associated to a probability of default per unit time (PD) that depends on its capital and is increased by the default of neighbouring nodes. Governments can control the systemic risk of the network by providing additional capital to the banks, lowering their PD at the expense of an increased exposure in case of their failure. Considering the network of European global systemically important institutions, we find the optimal investment policy that solves the MDP, providing direct indications to governments and regulators on the best way of action to limit the effects of financial crises.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2021

Control technique for synchronization of selected nodes in directed networks

In this Letter we propose a method to control a set of arbitrary nodes in a directed network such that they follow a synchronous trajectory which is, in general, not shared by the other units of the network. The problem is inspired to those natural or artificial networks whose proper operating conditions are associated to the presence of clusters of synchronous nodes. Our proposed method is based on the introduction of distributed controllers that modify the topology of the connections in order to generate outer symmetries in the nodes to be controlled. An optimization problem for the selection of the controllers, which includes as a special case the minimization of the number of the links added or removed, is also formulated and an algorithm for its solution is introduced.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2021

Lack of practical identifiability may hamper reliable predictions in COVID-19 epidemic models

Compartmental models are widely adopted to describe and predict the spreading of infectious diseases. The unknown parameters of such models need to be estimated from the data. Furthermore, when some of the model variables are not empirically accessible, as in the case of asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19, they have to be obtained as an outcome of the model. Here, we introduce a framework to quantify how the uncertainty in the data impacts the determination of the parameters and the evolution of the unmeasured variables of a given model. We illustrate how the method is able to characterize different regimes of identifiability, even in models with few compartments. Finally, we discuss how the lack of identifiability in a realistic model for COVID-19 may prevent reliable forecasting of the epidemic dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Interacting discovery processes on complex networks

Innovation is the driving force of human progress. Recent urn models reproduce well the dynamics through which the discovery of a novelty may trigger further ones, in an expanding space of opportunities, but neglect the effects of social interactions. Here we focus on the mechanisms of collective exploration and we propose a model in which many urns, representing different explorers, are coupled through the links of a social network and exploit opportunities coming from their contacts. We study different network structures showing, both analytically and numerically, that the pace of discovery of an explorer depends on its centrality in the social network. Our model sheds light on the role that social structures play in discovery processes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Inhibiting failure spreading in complex networks

In our daily lives, we rely on the proper functioning of supply networks, from power grids to water transmission systems. A single failure in these critical infrastructures can lead to a complete collapse through a cascading failure mechanism. Counteracting strategies are thus heavily sought after. In this article, we introduce a general framework to analyse the spreading of failures in complex networks and demonstrate that both weak and strong connections can be used to contain damages. We rigorously prove the existence of certain subgraphs, called network isolators, that can completely inhibit any failure spreading, and we show how to create such isolators in synthetic and real-world networks. The addition of selected links can thus prevent large scale outages as demonstrated for power transmission grids.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Dynamically induced cascading failures in power grids

Reliable functioning of infrastructure networks is essential for our modern society. Cascading failures are the cause of most large-scale network outages. Although cascading failures often exhibit dynamical transients, the modeling of cascades has so far mainly focused on the analysis of sequences of steady states. In this article, we focus on electrical transmission networks and introduce a framework that takes into account both the event-based nature of cascades and the essentials of the network dynamics. We find that transients of the order of seconds in the flows of a power grid play a crucial role in the emergence of collective behaviors. We finally propose a forecasting method to identify critical lines and components in advance or during operation. Overall, our work highlights the relevance of dynamically induced failures on the synchronization dynamics of national power grids of different European countries and provides methods to predict and model cascading failures.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2020

Nonlinear walkers and efficient exploration of congested networks

Random walks are the simplest way to explore or search a graph, and have revealed a very useful tool to investigate and characterize the structural properties of complex networks from the real world, e.g. they have been used to identify the modules of a given network, its most central nodes and paths, or to determine the typical times to reach a target. Although various types of random walks whose motion is node biased have been proposed, which are still amenable to analytical solution, most if not all of them rely on the assumption of linearity and independence of the walkers. We introduce a novel class of nonlinear stochastic processes describing a system of interacting random walkers moving over networks with finite node capacities. The transition probabilities are modulated by nonlinear functions of the available space at the destination node, with a bias parameter that allows to tune the tendency of the walkers to avoid nodes occupied by other walkers. Firstly, we derive the master equation governing the dynamics of the system, and we determine an analytical expression for the occupation probability of the walkers at equilibrium in the most general case, and under different level of network congestions. Then, we study different type of synthetic and real-world networks, presenting numerical and analytical results for the entropy rate, a proxy for the network exploration capacities of the walkers.We find that, for each level of the nonlinear bias, there is an optimal crowding that maximises the entropy rate in a given network topology. The analysis suggests that a large fraction of real-world networks are organised in such a way as to favour exploration under congested conditions. Our work provides a general and versatile framework to model nonlinear stochastic processes whose transition probabilities vary in time depending on the current state of the system.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2020

Networks beyond pairwise interactions: structure and dynamics

The complexity of many biological, social and technological systems stems from the richness of the interactions among their units. Over the past decades, a great variety of complex systems has been successfully described as networks whose interacting pairs of nodes are connected by links. Yet, in face-to-face human communication, chemical reactions and ecological systems, interactions can occur in groups of three or more nodes and cannot be simply described just in terms of simple dyads. Until recently, little attention has been devoted to the higher-order architecture of real complex systems. However, a mounting body of evidence is showing that taking the higher-order structure of these systems into account can greatly enhance our modeling capacities and help us to understand and predict their emerging dynamical behaviors. Here, we present a complete overview of the emerging field of networks beyond pairwise interactions. We first discuss the methods to represent higher-order interactions and give a unified presentation of the different frameworks used to describe higher-order systems, highlighting the links between the existing concepts and representations. We review the measures designed to characterize the structure of these systems and the models proposed in the literature to generate synthetic structures, such as random and growing simplicial complexes, bipartite graphs and hypergraphs. We introduce and discuss the rapidly growing research on higher-order dynamical systems and on dynamical topology. We focus on novel emergent phenomena characterizing landmark dynamical processes, such as diffusion, spreading, synchronization and games, when extended beyond pairwise interactions. We elucidate the relations between higher-order topology and dynamical properties, and conclude with a summary of empirical applications, providing an outlook on current modeling and conceptual frontiers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

The shape of memory in temporal networks

Temporal networks are widely used models for describing the architecture of complex systems. Network memory -- that is the dependence of a temporal network's structure on its past -- has been shown to play a prominent role in diffusion, epidemics and other processes occurring over the network, and even to alter its community structure. Recent works have proposed to estimate the length of memory in a temporal network by using high-order Markov models. Here we show that network memory is inherently multidimensional and cannot be meaningfully reduced to a single scalar quantity. Accordingly, we introduce a mathematical framework for defining and efficiently estimating the microscopic shape of memory, which fully characterises how the activity of each link intertwines with the activities of all other links. We validate our methodology on a wide range of synthetic models of temporal networks with tuneable memory, and subsequently study the heterogeneous shapes of memory emerging in various real-world networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Multilayer modeling of adoption dynamics in energy demand management

Due to the emergence of new technologies, the whole electricity system is undergoing transformations on a scale and pace never observed before. The decentralization of energy resources and the smart grid have forced utility services to rethink their relationships with customers. Demand response (DR) seeks to adjust the demand for power instead of adjusting the supply. However, DR business models rely on customer participation and can only be effective when large numbers of customers in close geographic vicinity, e.g., connected to the same transformer, opt in. Here, we introduce a model for the dynamics of service adoption on a two-layer multiplex network: the layer of social interactions among customers and the power-grid layer connecting the households. While the adoption process - based on peer-to-peer communication - runs on the social layer, the time-dependent recovery rate of the nodes depends on the states of their neighbors on the power-grid layer, making an infected node surrounded by infectious ones less keen to recover. Numerical simulations of the model on synthetic and real-world networks show that a strong local influence of the customers' actions leads to a discontinuous transition where either none or all the nodes in the network are infected, depending on the infection rate and social pressure to adopt. We find that clusters of early adopters act as points of high local pressure, helping maintaining adopters, and facilitating the eventual adoption of all nodes. This suggests direct marketing strategies on how to efficiently establish and maintain new technologies such as DR schemes.

physics.soc-ph↗