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W. J. Handley

Publications and source records attributed to W. J. Handley.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation: A Robust Loss that Doubles as an Unsupervised Contamination Classifier

Engineered robust losses such as Huber, Student-$t$, and generalised cross-entropy make supervised models tolerant of contamination but cannot answer which observations are corrupted. We introduce Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation (NBAM), a general-purpose drop-in loss derived from a Bayesian latent-switch mixture model: the marginal likelihood defines a robust supervised loss, and the associated posterior defines an unsupervised contamination classifier. Like Huber or Student-$t$, NBAM can replace the standard training loss in any supervised pipeline; unlike them, it additionally learns a structured contamination model and returns a calibrated per-sample contamination posterior. A learned input-dependent prior $\pi_\phi(x)$ captures the spatial locality of contamination, so that samples near known corruptions are more likely to be flagged, while an Occam penalty emerges automatically and regularises against over-flagging. On CIFAR-10 with asymmetric label contamination, NBAM recovers the structure of the corruption process without supervision: the contamination posterior separates clean from corrupted samples, and the learned anomaly head identifies the direction of every label-flip pair. Alongside these capabilities, NBAM outperforms the four robust-loss baselines considered here at contamination rates 0.2-0.6.

cs.LG

Scalable Bayesian data curation for next-generation radio experiments

Next-generation radio telescopes produce data volumes that preclude manual quality assessment, yet data curation remains essential for science. We present a general, fully automatic Bayesian anomaly-detection method for radio science experiments in which data curation is performed inside the inference: a latent anomaly indicator is marginalised in the likelihood rather than converted into an external pre-flag. Implemented in JAX with GPU-accelerated inference, the pipeline assigns probabilistic data-curation scores without prior knowledge and requires no thresholds, manual inspection, or subjective decisions. We demonstrate the method on the Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH), applying it to 4655 observations (one year of REACH data). The pipeline assigns scores across time and frequency, enabling identification of the optimal observations to carry forward into scientific inference while reducing the risk that contaminated data bias the result. In doing so, it simultaneously recovers weather-driven systematics, instrument-component drifts, and narrow-band radio-frequency interference, while revealing complex dependencies between data quality and environmental or instrumental state that would be difficult to uncover by manual curation alone. This turns data curation from an external manual bottleneck into autonomous, inference-level infrastructure for the Square Kilometre Array era.

astro-ph.IM

Conditional Neural Bayes Ratio Estimation for Experimental Design Optimisation

For frontier experiments operating at the edge of detectability, instrument design directly determines the probability of discovery. We introduce Conditional Neural Bayes Ratio Estimation (cNBRE), which extends neural Bayes ratio estimation by conditioning on design parameters, enabling a single trained network to estimate Bayes factors across a continuous design space. Applied to 21-cm radio cosmology with simulations representative of the REACH experiment, the amortised nature of cNBRE enables systematic design space exploration that would be intractable with traditional point-wise methods, while recovering established physical relationships. The analysis demonstrates a ~20 percentage point variation in detection probability with antenna orientation for a single night of observation, a design decision that would be trivial to implement if determined prior to antenna construction. This framework enables efficient, globally-informed experimental design optimisation for a wide range of scientific applications.

astro-ph.IM

Tilting the scales: weighing prior dependency and global tensions of CMB lensing

We provide a nested sampling analysis of the combination of CMB lensing experiments with other cosmological measurements. Nested samples can be used to compute global consistency statistics between datasets. This is demonstrated for CMB lensing and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations which are uncorrelated, and the correlated case between ACT DR6 and NPIPE lensing. We investigate the effect of the prior widths of the spectral tilt $n_\mathrm s$ used in CMB lensing analyses, which quantitatively, but not qualitatively, affect headline constraints. In the absence of informative priors, SPT-3G performs more similarly to ACT and NPIPE. Bayes factors and the suspiciousness statistic are used to quantify the possibility of tension, and we find the Gaussian assumptions inherent in calculating the suspiciousness tension probability to be unsuitable in the case of strong agreement between CMB lensing experiments.

astro-ph.CO

On the accuracy of posterior recovery with neural network emulators

Neural network emulators are widely used in astrophysics and cosmology to approximate complex simulations inside Bayesian inference loops. Ad hoc rules of thumb are often used to justify the emulator accuracy required for reliable posterior recovery. We provide a theoretically motivated limit on the maximum amount of incorrect information inferred by using an emulator with a given accuracy. Under assumptions of linearity in the model, uncorrelated noise in the data and a Gaussian likelihood function, we demonstrate that the difference between the true underlying posterior and the recovered posterior can be quantified via a Kullback-Leibler divergence. We demonstrate how this limit can be used in the field of 21-cm cosmology by comparing the posteriors recovered when fitting mock data sets generated with the 1D radiative transfer code ARES directly with the simulation code and separately with an emulator. This paper is partly in response to and builds upon recent discussions in the literature which call into question the use of emulators in Bayesian inference pipelines. Upon repeating some aspects of these analyses, we find these concerns quantitatively unjustified, with accurate posterior recovery possible even when the mean RMSE error for the emulator is approximately 20% of the magnitude of the noise in the data. For the purposes of community reproducibility, we make our analysis code public at this link https://github.com/htjb/validating_posteriors.

astro-ph.CO

Bayesian Anomaly Detection for Ia Cosmology: Automating SALT3 Data Curation

Precision cosmology with Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) requires robust quality control of large, heterogeneous datasets. Current data processing often relies on manual, subjective rejection of photometric data, a practice that is not scalable for forthcoming surveys like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We present a Bayesian framework that automates this step by integrating anomaly detection directly into the light curve fitting process. While the framework is model-agnostic and compatible with any spectral energy distribution (SED) model, here we demonstrate its application with the SALT3 model, implemented fully on GPU using \texttt{JAX-bandflux} for computational efficiency. Our method models the probability of each photometric measurement being anomalous with respect to the model, simultaneously inferring the physical supernova parameters and each data point's posterior probability of being a contaminant. Applying this framework to the Hawaii Supernova Flows dataset, we demonstrate its three principal capabilities: (i) robust mitigation of isolated outliers; (ii) automated identification and rejection of entirely corrupted bandpasses; and (iii) preservation of valid data by flagging only specific anomalous points within otherwise usable filters. We also find that contaminants are systematically brighter and bluer, which if uncorrected could bias subsequent cosmological inference.

astro-ph.IM

Dynamic or Systematic? Bayesian model selection between dark energy and supernova biases

The Dark Energy Survey 5-year (DES-5Y) supernovae, combined with Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) baryon acoustic oscillations, appear to favour Chevallier-Polarski-Linder $(w_0, w_a)$ dynamical dark energy over $\Lambda$CDM. It has been suggested in other work that this is driven by a systematic in the DES pipeline, which particularly affects the low-redshift supernovae brought in from legacy surveys. It is difficult to investigate these data in isolation, however, as the complicated supernovae pipelines must properly account for selection effects. In this work, we discover that a magnitude offset between the low- and high-redshift supernovae is favoured by the Bayesian evidence over the flexknot dark energy found in our previous work. In addition, we find that the possible tension between DES-5Y and DESI is significantly reduced by such an offset. The recent DES-Dovekie recalibration partially alleviates this tension, but does not eliminate it. We also take the opportunity to trial Nested Bridge Sampling with Sequential Monte Carlo as an alternative method for calculating Bayes factors.

astro-ph.CO

Comparison of dynamical dark energy with ΛCDM in light of DESI DR2

We present an updated reconstruction of the dark energy equation of state, $w(a)$, using the newly released DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data in combination with Pantheon+ and DES5Y Type Ia supernovae measurements, respectively. Building on our previous analysis in arXiv:2503.08658, which employed a nonparametric flexknot reconstruction approach, we examine whether the evidence for dynamical dark energy persists with the improved precision of the DESI DR2 dataset. We find that while the overall qualitative structure of $w(a)$ remains consistent with our earlier findings, the statistical support for dynamical dark energy is reduced when considering DESI DR2 data alone, particularly for more complex flexknot models with higher numbers of knots. However, the evidence for simpler dynamical models, such as $w$CDM and CPL (which correspond to $n=1$ and $n=2$ knots respectively), increases relative to $Λ$CDM with DESI DR2 alone, with CPL being the preferred dynamical model, consistent with previous DESI analyses. When combined with Pantheon+ data, the conclusions remain broadly consistent with our earlier work, but when instead combined with DES5Y supernovae data, there is an increased preference for flexknot models for all values of $n$ considered. This results in all such models being preferred over $Λ$CDM, with the CPL model being the most favoured by a Bayes factor of $\sim 2.3$ relative to $Λ$CDM.

astro-ph.CO

Nonparametric reconstructions of dynamical dark energy via flexknots

Recent cosmological surveys have provided unprecedented datasets that can be used to reconstruct the history of the dark energy equation of state. In this work, a free-form "flexknot'' parameterisation is employed to represent $w(a)$ as a linear spline between free-moving nodes, the number of which may vary. By combining DESI Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurements with Pantheon+ or DES5Y supernovae, the functional posteriors of $w(a)$ reveal an unexpected W-shaped structure. While the Bayesian evidence may still favour $Λ$CDM, the robustness of these results suggests the structure is indeed present in the data. The tension $R$-statistic and suspiciousness have been marginalised over models, and demonstrate that while the reconstructions from DESI and Pantheon+ agree, DESI and DES5Y do not. We conclude that, while there is no smoking gun for dynamical dark energy, the structure unearthed in this work is generally too complex to be captured by the restrictive $w$CDM or CPL parameterisations.

astro-ph.CO

Radiometer Calibration using Machine Learning

Radiometers are crucial instruments in radio astronomy, forming the primary component of nearly all radio telescopes. They measure the intensity of electromagnetic radiation, converting this radiation into electrical signals. A radiometer's primary components are an antenna and a Low Noise Amplifier (LNA), which is the core of the ``receiver'' chain. Instrumental effects introduced by the receiver are typically corrected or removed during calibration. However, impedance mismatches between the antenna and receiver can introduce unwanted signal reflections and distortions. Traditional calibration methods, such as Dicke switching, alternate the receiver input between the antenna and a well-characterised reference source to mitigate errors by comparison. Recent advances in Machine Learning (ML) offer promising alternatives. Neural networks, which are trained using known signal sources, provide a powerful means to model and calibrate complex systems where traditional analytical approaches struggle. These methods are especially relevant for detecting the faint sky-averaged 21-cm signal from atomic hydrogen at high redshifts. This is one of the main challenges in observational Cosmology today. Here, for the first time, we introduce and test a machine learning-based calibration framework capable of achieving the precision required for radiometric experiments aiming to detect the 21-cm line.

astro-ph.IM

The mass distribution of the first stars can be determined via the 21-cm signal

The formation of the first stars and the subsequent population of X-ray binaries represents a fundamental transition in the state of the Universe as it evolves from near homogeneity to being abundant in collapsed structures such as galaxies. Due to a lack of direct observations, the properties of these stars remain highly uncertain. By considering the impact of the first stars and their remnant X-ray binaries on the cosmological 21-cm signal, we demonstrate that upcoming observations have the potential to significantly improve our understanding of these objects. We find a 25 mK sensitivity measurement of the 21-cm global signal by a wide-beam radiometer, such as REACH, or 3,000 hours of foreground avoidance observations of the 21-cm power spectrum by SKA-Low, could provide three-sigma constraints on the mass distribution of the first stars. Such measurements will fill a critical gap in our understanding of the early Universe and aid in interpreting high-redshift galaxy observations.

astro-ph.CO

Fully Bayesian Forecasts with Evidence Networks

Sensitivity forecasts inform the design of experiments and the direction of theoretical efforts. To arrive at representative results, Bayesian forecasts should marginalize their conclusions over uncertain parameters and noise realizations rather than picking fiducial values. However, this is typically computationally infeasible with current methods for forecasts of an experiment's ability to distinguish between competing models. We thus propose a novel simulation-based methodology capable of providing expedient and rigorous Bayesian model comparison forecasts without relying on restrictive assumptions.

astro-ph.IM

Analytic Approximations for the Primordial Power Spectrum with Israel Junction Conditions

This work compares cosmological matching conditions used in approximating generic pre-inflationary phases of the universe. We show that the joining conditions for primordial scalar perturbations assumed by Contaldi et al. are inconsistent with the physically motivated Israel junction conditions, however; performing general relativistic matching with the aforementioned constraints results in unrealistic primordial power spectra. Eliminating the need for ambiguous matching, we look at an alternative semi-analytic model for producing the primordial power spectrum allowing for finite duration cosmological phase transitions.

astro-ph.CO

Bayesian approach to radio frequency interference mitigation

Interfering signals such as Radio Frequency Interference from ubiquitous satellite constellations are becoming an endemic problem in fields involving physical observations of the electromagnetic spectrum. To address this we propose a novel data cleaning methodology. Contamination is simultaneously flagged and managed at the likelihood level. It is modeled in a Bayesian fashion through a piecewise likelihood that is constrained by a Bernoulli prior distribution. The techniques described in this paper can be implemented with just a few lines of code.

astro-ph.IM

On the Constraints on Superconducting Cosmic Strings from 21-cm Cosmology

Constraints on the potential properties of superconducting cosmic strings provide an indirect probe of physics beyond the standard model at energies inaccessible to terrestrial particle colliders. In this study, we perform the first joint Bayesian analysis to extract constraints on superconducting cosmic strings from current 21-cm signal measurements while accounting rigorously for the uncertainties in foregrounds and high redshift astrophysics. We include the latest publicly available 21-cm power spectrum upper limits from HERA, 21-cm global signal data from SARAS 3, and the synergistic probe of the unresolved X-ray background in our final analysis. This paper thus constitutes the first attempt to use 21-cm power spectrum data to probe cosmic strings. In contrast to previous works, we find no strong constraints can be placed on superconducting cosmic strings from current 21-cm measurements. This is because of uncertainties in the X-ray emission efficiency of the first galaxies, with X-ray emissivities greater than $3 \times 10^{40}$erg s$^{-1}$ M$_{\odot}^{-1}$ yr able to mask the presence of cosmic strings in the 21-cm signal. We conclude by discussing the prospects for future constraints from definitive 21-cm signal measurements and argue that the recently proposed soft photon heating should be cause for optimism due to its potential to break degeneracies that would have otherwise made the signatures of cosmic strings difficult to distinguish from those of astrophysical origin.

astro-ph.CO

Signatures of Cosmic Ray Heating in 21-cm Observables

Cosmic rays generated by supernovae carry away a significant portion of the lifetime energy emission of their parent star, making them a plausible mechanism for heating the early universe intergalactic medium (IGM). Following a review of the existing literature on cosmic ray heating, we develop a flexible model of this heating mechanism for use in 3D semi-numerical 21-cm signal simulations and conduct the first investigations of the signatures it imprints on the 21-cm power spectrum and tomographic maps. We find that cosmic ray heating of the IGM is short-ranged, leading to heating clustered around star-forming sites, and a sharp contrast between heated regions of 21-cm emission and unheated regions of absorption. This contrast results in greater small-scale power for cosmic ray heated scenarios compared to what is found for X-ray heating, thus suggesting a way to test the nature of IGM heating with future 21-cm observations. Finally, we find an unexpectedly rich thermal history in models where cosmic rays can only escape efficiently from low-mass halos, such as in scenarios where these energetic particles originate from population III star supernovae remnants. The interplay of heating and the Lyman-Werner feedback in these models can produce a local peak in the IGM kinetic temperature and, for a limited parameter range, a flattened absorption trough in the global 21-cm signal.

astro-ph.CO

Astrophysical Constraints from the SARAS3 non-detection of the Cosmic Dawn Sky-Averaged 21-cm Signal

Observations of the redshifted 21-cm line of atomic hydrogen have resulted in several upper limits on the 21-cm power spectrum and a tentative detection of the sky-averaged signal at $z\sim17$. Made with the EDGES Low-Band antenna, this claim was recently disputed by the SARAS3 experiment, which reported a non-detection and is the only available upper limit strong enough to constrain cosmic dawn astrophysics. We use these data to constrain a population of radio-luminous galaxies $\sim 200$ million years after the Big Bang ($z\approx 20$). We find, using Bayesian data analysis, that the data disfavours (at 68% confidence) radio-luminous galaxies in dark matter halos with masses of $4.4\times10^{5}$ M$_\odot \lesssim M \lesssim 1.1\times10^{7}$M$_\odot$ (where $M_\odot$ is the mass of the Sun) at $z = 20$ and galaxies in which $>5$% of the gas is converted into stars. The data disfavour galaxies with radio luminosity per star formation rate of $L_\mathrm{r}/\mathrm{SFR} \gtrsim 1.549 \times 10^{25}$ W Hz$^{-1}$M$_\odot^{-1}$ yr at 150 MHz, a thousand times brighter than today, and, separately, a synchrotron radio background in excess of the CMB by $\gtrsim 6%$ at 1.42 GHz.

astro-ph.CO

Impact of the Primordial Stellar Initial Mass Function on the 21-cm Signal

Properties of the first generation of stars (Pop III), such as their initial mass function (IMF), are poorly constrained by observations and have yet to converge between simulations. The cosmological 21-cm signal of neutral hydrogen is predicted to be sensitive to Lyman-band photons produced by these stars, thus providing a unique way to probe the first stellar population. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of the Pop III IMF on the cosmic dawn 21-cm signal via the Wouthuysen-Field effect, Lyman-Werner feedback, Ly-alpha heating, and CMB heating. We calculate the emission spectra of star-forming halos for different IMFs by integrating over individual metal-free stellar spectra, computed from a set of stellar evolution histories and stellar atmospheres, and taking into account variability of the spectra with stellar age. Through this study, we therefore relax two common assumptions: that the zero-age main sequence emission rate of a Pop III star is representative of its lifetime mean emission rate, and that Pop III emission can be treated as instantaneous. Exploring a bottom-heavy, a top-heavy, and intermediate IMFs, we show that variations in the 21-cm signal are driven by stars lighter than 20 solar masses. For the explored models we find maximum relative differences of 59% in the cosmic dawn global 21-cm signal, and 131% between power spectra. Although this impact is modest, precise modelling of the first stars and their evolution is necessary for accurate prediction and interpretation of the 21-cm signal.

astro-ph.CO