arXiv subjects

Walter Del Pozzo

Publications and source records attributed to Walter Del Pozzo.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Reducing cosmological degeneracies by combining multiple classes of LISA gravitational-wave standard sirens

We present the first joint gravitational-wave cosmological inference with LISA extreme mass-ratio inspirals at $z\lesssim1$ (galaxy redshifts) and massive black hole binaries at $z\gtrsim1$ (electromagnetic counterparts). Combining these standard sirens reduces cosmological degeneracies and yields competitive constraints on the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter $w_0$. This highlights LISA's potential for late-time cosmology across a broad redshift range with systematics distinct from electromagnetic distance indicators.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The Sequential Monte Carlo goes NUTS: Boosting Gravitational-Wave Inference

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have recently been applied to gravitational-wave inference as a powerful alternative to standard sampling techniques, such as Nested Sampling. At the same time, gradient-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, most notably the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), provide an efficient way to explore high-dimensional parameter spaces. In this work we present SHARPy, a Bayesian inference framework that combines the parallelism and evidence-estimation capabilities of SMC with the state-of-the-art sampling performance of NUTS. Moreover, SHARPy exploits the local geometric structure of the posterior to further improve efficiency. Built on JAX, a high-performance computing framework that enables automatic differentiation and hardware acceleration, SHARPy performs gravitational-wave inference on binary black-hole events in around ten minutes, yielding posterior samples and Bayesian evidence estimates that are consistent with those obtained through Nested Sampling. This work sets a new milestone in Gravitational-Wave inference with likelihood-based methods and paves the way for model comparison tasks to be accomplished in minutes.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

samsara: A Continuous-Time Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampler for Trans-Dimensional Bayesian Analysis

Bayesian inference requires determining the posterior distribution, a task that becomes particularly challenging when the dimension of the parameter space is large and unknown. This limitation arises in many physics problems, such as Mixture Models (MM) with an unknown number of components or the inference of overlapping signals in noisy data, as in the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) Global Fit problem. Traditional approaches, such as product-space methods or Reversible-Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), often face efficiency and convergence limitations. This paper presents samsara, a Continuous-Time Markov Chain Monte Carlo (CTMCMC) framework that models parameter evolution through Poisson-driven birth, death, and mutation processes. samsara is designed to sample models of unknown dimensionality. By requiring detailed balance through adaptive rate definitions, CTMCMC achieves automatic acceptance of trans-dimensional moves and high sampling efficiency. The code features waiting time weighted estimators, optimized memory storage, and a modular design for easy customization. We validate samsara on three benchmark problems: an analytic trans-dimensional distribution, joint inference of sine waves and Lorentzians in time series, and a Gaussian MM with an unknown number of components. In all cases, the code shows excellent agreement with analytical and Nested Sampling results. All these features push samsara as a powerful alternative to RJMCMC for large- and variable-dimensional Bayesian inference problems.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2025

Tests of General Relativity with Einstein Telescope

Gravitational wave signals from compact binary coalescences offer a powerful and reliable probe of General Relativity. To date, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration has provided stringent consistency tests of General Relativity predictions. In this work, we present forecasts for the accuracy with which General Relativity can be tested using third-generation ground-based interferometers, focusing on Einstein Telescope (ET) and binary black hole mergers. Given the expected high detection rate, performing full Bayesian analyses for each event becomes computationally challenging. To overcome this, we adopt a Fisher matrix approach, simulating parameter estimation in an idealized observation scenario, which allows us to study large populations of compact binary coalescences with feasible computational efforts. Within this framework, we investigate the constraints that ET, in its different configurations, can impose on inspiral post-Newtonian coefficients, by jointly analyzing events using a Bayesian hierarchical methodology. Our results indicate that ET could in principle achieve an accuracy of $\mathcal{O}(10^{-7})$ on the dipole radiation term and $\mathcal{O}(10^{-3})$ on higher-order post-Newtonian coefficients, for both the triangular and the two L-shaped designs, with $10^4$ catalog events. We also assess the number of detections required to confidently identify deviations from General Relativity at various post-Newtonian orders and for different detector configurations.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Likelihood for a Network of Gravitational-Wave Detectors with Correlated Noise

The Einstein Telescope faces a critical data analysis challenge with correlated noise, often overlooked in current parameter estimation analyses. We address this issue by presenting the statistical formulation of the likelihood that includes correlated noise for the Einstein Telescope or any detector network. By considering varying degrees of correlation, we probe the impact of noise correlations on the parameter estimation analysis of a GW150914-like event. We show that neglecting these correlations may significantly reduce the accuracy of the chirp mass reconstruction. This emphasizes how critical a proper treatment of correlated noise is, as presented in this work, to unlocking the wealth of results promised by the Einstein Telescope.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

The Science of the Einstein Telescope

Einstein Telescope (ET) is the European project for a gravitational-wave (GW) observatory of third-generation. In this paper we present a comprehensive discussion of its science objectives, providing state-of-the-art predictions for the capabilities of ET in both geometries currently under consideration, a single-site triangular configuration or two L-shaped detectors. We discuss the impact that ET will have on domains as broad and diverse as fundamental physics, cosmology, early Universe, astrophysics of compact objects, physics of matter in extreme conditions, and dynamics of stellar collapse. We discuss how the study of extreme astrophysical events will be enhanced by multi-messenger observations. We highlight the ET synergies with ground-based and space-borne GW observatories, including multi-band investigations of the same sources, improved parameter estimation, and complementary information on astrophysical or cosmological mechanisms obtained combining observations from different frequency bands. We present advancements in waveform modeling dedicated to third-generation observatories, along with open tools developed within the ET Collaboration for assessing the scientific potentials of different detector configurations. We finally discuss the data analysis challenges posed by third-generation observatories, which will enable access to large populations of sources and provide unprecedented precision.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Exploration of features in the black hole mass spectrum inspired by non-parametric analyses of gravitational wave observations

Current gravitational-wave data reveal structures in the mass function of binary compact objects. Properly modelling and deciphering such structures is the ultimate goal of gravitational-wave population analysis: in this context, non-parametric models are a powerful tool to infer the distribution of black holes from gravitational waves without committing to any specific functional form. Here, we aim to quantitatively corroborate the findings of non-parametric methods with parametrised models incorporating the features found in such analyses. We propose two modifications of the currently favoured PowerLaw+Peak model, inspired by non-parametric studies, and use them to analyse the third Gravitational Wave Transient Catalogue. Our analysis marginally supports the existence of two distinct, differently redshift-evolving subpopulations in the black hole primary mass function, and suggests that, to date, we are still unable to robustly assess the shape of the mass ratio distribution for symmetric ($q>0.7$) binaries.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Black hole spectroscopy: from theory to experiment

The "ringdown" radiation emitted by oscillating black holes has great scientific potential. By carefully predicting the frequencies and amplitudes of black hole quasinormal modes and comparing them with gravitational-wave data from compact binary mergers we can advance our understanding of the two-body problem in general relativity, verify the predictions of the theory in the regime of strong and dynamical gravitational fields, and search for physics beyond the Standard Model or new gravitational degrees of freedom. We summarize the state of the art in our understanding of black hole quasinormal modes in general relativity and modified gravity, their excitation, and the modeling of ringdown waveforms. We also review the status of LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA ringdown observations, data analysis techniques, and the bright prospects of the field in the era of LISA and next-generation ground-based gravitational-wave detectors.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Survey of Orion Disks with ALMA (SODA) III: Disks in wide binary systems in L1641 and L1647

Aims. The goal of this work is to comprehensively characterize the impact of stellar multiplicity on Class II disks in the L1641 and L1647 regions of Orion A (~1-3 Myr), part of the Survey of Orion Disks with ALMA (SODA). We characterize the protostellar multiplicity using the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), the ESO-VISTA, and Hubble Space telescopes. The resulting sample of 65 multiple systems represents the largest catalogue of wide binary systems to date (projected separation >1000 AU), allowing a more robust statistical characterization of the evolution and properties of protoplanetary disks. Methods. The disk population was observed in continuum with ALMA at 225 GHz, with a median rms of 1.5 Mearth. Combining these data (resolution ~1.1arcsec ) with the ESO-VISTA near-infrared survey of the Orion A cloud (resolution ~0.7arcsec ), multiple systems are assembled and selected by an iterative inside-out search in projected separation (>1000 AU). Results. We identify 61 binary systems, 3 triple systems, and one quadruple system. The separation range is between 1000 and 10^4 AU. The dust mass distributions inferred with the Kaplan-Meier estimator yield a median mass of 3.23+0.6-0.4 Mearth for primary disks and 3.88+0.3-0.3 Mearth for secondary disks.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Potential impact of noise correlation in next-generation gravitational wave detectors

Building upon the statistical formulation for parameter estimation (PE) in the presence of correlated noise proposed by Cireddu et al., we present the initial study to incorporate the effects of correlated noise into the analyses of various detector designs' performance. We consider a two-L-shaped-detector configuration in Europe and compare the expectation of PE of gravitational wave (GW) transients between noncollocated and hypothetical collocated configurations. In our study, we posit the existence of low-frequency correlated noise within the 5-10 Hz range for the collocated detector configuration, with a varying correlation. In this specific detector setup, our observations indicate an enhancement in the precision of intrinsic parameter measurements as the correlation increases. This trend suggests that noise correlation may beneficially influence the accuracy of PE. In particular, when the noise is highly correlated, the uncertainty on chirp mass decreases by up to $30\%$. The absence of an inter-European baseline does hinder the estimation of the extrinsic parameters. However, given a realistic global network with the additional detector in the US, the uncertainty of extrinsic parameters is significantly reduced. This reduction is further amplified as the noise correlation increases. When the noise correlation exceeds a certain level, the collocated configuration outperforms the noncollocated configuration. For instance, when the correlation is high, the collocated configuration decreases the $90\%$ credible area of sky location by up to $10\%$ compared to the noncollocated configuration. We conclude that the impact of noise correlation is not trivial and can potentially alter both the quantitative and qualitative outcomes in detector performance. We therefore recommend the inclusion of noise correlation for a comprehensive assessment of the design of third-generation GW detectors.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Impact of correlated noise on the reconstruction of the stochastic gravitational wave background with Einstein Telescope

Einstein Telescope (ET) is a proposed next-generation Gravitational Wave (GW) interferometer designed to detect a large number of astrophysical and cosmological sources with unprecedented sensitivity. A key target for ET is the detection of a stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB), a faint signal from unresolved GW sources. In its proposed triangular configuration, correlated Newtonian noise of seismic origin poses some challenges for the SGWB detection. We study the impact of correlated noise on the SGWB detection and relative parameter estimation for ET in the triangular configuration, comparing it to a 2L configuration with two separated L-shaped detectors. We perform a Bayesian analysis on simulated data, which shows that accurate reconstruction of the SGWB parameters and instrumental noise is achievable if the noise is properly modeled. We illustrate that neglecting correlated noise leads to significant biases in the parameter reconstruction. Our results show that while the 2L configuration provides slightly better parameter estimation precision, mainly due to its longer arm length, the triangular configuration remains competitive when accurate noise modeling is provided.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Partial alignment between jets and megamasers: Coherent versus selective accretion

Spins play a crucial role in the appearance, evolution, and occupation fraction of massive black holes (MBHs). To date, observational estimates of MBH spins are scarce, and the assumptions commonly made in such estimates have recently been questioned. Similarly, theoretical models for MBH spin evolution, while reproducing the few observational constraints, are based on possibly oversimplified assumptions. New independent constraints on MBH spins are therefore of primary importance. We present a rigorous statistical analysis of the relative orientation of radio jets and megamaser disks in ten low-redshift galaxies. We find a strong preference for (partial) alignment between jets and megamaser that can be attributed to two different causes: coherent accretion and selective accretion. In the first case the partial alignment is due to an anisotropy in the gas reservoir fueling the growth of MBHs. In the second case the spin-dependent anisotropic feedback allows long-lived accretion only if the orbits of the gas inflows are almost aligned to the MBH equatorial plane. A discussion of the implications of the two accretion scenarios regarding the evolution of MBHs is presented, together with an outlook on future observational tests aiming at discriminating between the two scenarios and checking whether either applies to different redshifts and black hole mass regimes.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

First constraints on compact binary environments from LIGO-Virgo data

The LIGO-Virgo analyses of signals from compact binary mergers observed so far have assumed isolated binary systems in a vacuum, neglecting the potential presence of astrophysical environments. We present here the first investigation of environmental effects on each of the events of GWTC-1 and two low-mass events from GWTC-2. We find no evidence for the presence of environmental effects. Most of the events decisively exclude the scenario of dynamical fragmentation of massive stars as their formation channel. GW170817 results in the most stringent upper bound on the medium density ($\lesssim 21\,\mathrm{g/cm^3}$). We find that environmental effects can substantially bias the recovered parameters in the vacuum model, even when these effects are not detectable. We forecast that the Einstein Telescope and B-DECIGO will be able to probe the environmental effects of accretion disks and superradiant boson clouds on compact binaries.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Enhancing gravitational-wave host localization with SKYFAST: rapid volume and inclination angle reconstruction

The scientific impact of GW170817 strongly supports the need for an efficient electromagnetic follow-up campaign to gravitational-wave event candidates. The success of such campaigns depends critically on a fast and accurate localization of the source. In this paper, we present SKYFAST, a new pipeline for rapid localization of gravitational-wave event hosts. SKYFAST runs alongside a full parameter estimation (PE) algorithm, from which posterior samples are taken. It uses these samples to reconstruct an analytical posterior for the sky position, luminosity distance, and inclination angle using a Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model, a Bayesian non-parametric method. This approach allows us to provide an accurate localization of the event using only a fraction of the total samples produced by the full PE analysis. Depending on the PE algorithm employed, this can lead to significant time savings, which is crucial for identifying the electromagnetic counterpart. Additionally, in a few minutes, SKYFAST generates a ranked list of the most probable galaxy hosts from a galaxy catalog of choice. This list includes information on the inclination angle posterior conditioned to the position of each candidate host, which is useful for assessing the detectability of gamma-ray burst structured jet emissions.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis: an application to gravitational waves data analysis

The Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA) method, developed by Burg, offers a powerful tool for spectral estimation of a time-series. It relies on Jaynes' maximum entropy principle, allowing the spectrum of a stochastic process to be inferred using the coefficients of an autoregressive process AR($p$) of order $p$. A closed-form recursive solution provides estimates for both the autoregressive coefficients and the order $p$ of the process. We provide a ready-to-use implementation of this algorithm in a Python package called \texttt{memspectrum}, characterized through power spectral density (PSD) analysis on synthetic data with known PSD and comparisons of different criteria for stopping the recursion. Additionally, we compare the performance of our implementation with the ubiquitous Welch algorithm, using synthetic data generated from the GW150914 strain spectrum released by the LIGO-Virgo-Kagra collaboration. Our findings indicate that Burg's method provides PSD estimates with systematically lower variance and bias. This is particularly manifest in the case of a small (O($5000$)) number of data points, making Burg's method most suitable to work in this regime. Since this is close to the typical length of analysed gravitational waves data, improving the estimate of the PSD in this regime leads to more reliable posterior profiles for the system under study. We conclude our investigation by utilising MESA, and its particularly easy parametrisation where the only free parameter is the order $p$ of the AR process, to marginalise over the interferometers noise PSD in conjunction with inferring the parameters of GW150914.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Hierarchical inference of evidence using posterior samples

The Bayesian evidence, crucial ingredient for model selection, is arguably the most important quantity in Bayesian data analysis: at the same time, however, it is also one of the most difficult to compute. In this paper we present a hierarchical method that leverages on a multivariate normalised approximant for the posterior probability density to infer the evidence for a model in a hierarchical fashion using a set of posterior samples drawn using an arbitrary sampling scheme.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Searching for ringdown higher modes with a numerical relativity-informed post-merger model

Robust measurements of multiple black hole vibrational modes provide a unique opportunity to characterise gravity in extreme curvature and dynamical regimes, to better investigate the nature of compact objects and search for signs of new physics. We use a numerically-tuned quasicircular non-precessing ringdown model, $\texttt{TEOBPM}$, and the $\texttt{pyRing}$ analysis infrastructure to perform a time-domain spectroscopic analysis of the third catalog of transient gravitational-wave signals, GWTC-3, searching for higher angular modes. The $\texttt{TEOBPM}$ model effectively includes non-linearities in the early post-merger signal portion, and carries information about the progenitors parameters through time-dependent excitation amplitudes of the black hole quasinormal modes. Such a strategy allows us to accurately model the full post-merger emission, recovering higher signal-to-noise ratios compared to templates based on more agnostic superpositions of damped-sinusoids. We find weak evidence for the presence of $(l,m)=(3,3)$ [$(l,m)=(2,1)$] mode in several events, with the largest Bayes factor in favour of this mode being $\mathcal{B}\simeq 2.6$ [$\mathcal{B}\simeq 1.2$] within the peak time distribution support. For GW190521, we observe $\mathcal{B}\simeq 5.1$, but only for times outside the peak time support reconstructed using the highly accurate $\texttt{NRSur7dq4}$ model, indicating significant systematics affecting such putative detection. Allowing for deviations from general relativity under the assumption of the presence of two modes, we find tentative support for the Kerr "final state conjecture". Our work showcases a systematic methodology to robustly identify and characterise higher angular modes in ringdown-only signals, highlighting the significant impact of modelling assumptions and peak time uncertainty on spectroscopic measurements, at current signal-to-noise ratios.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Evidence for the evolution of black hole mass function with redshift

We investigate the joint primary mass, mass ratio, and redshift observed distribution of astrophysical black holes using the gravitational wave events detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration and included in the third gravitational wave transient catalogue. We reconstruct this distribution using Bayesian non-parametric methods, which are data-driven models able to infer arbitrary probability densities under minimal mathematical assumptions. We find evidence for the evolution with redshift of both the primary mass and mass ratio distribution: our analysis shows the presence of two distinct sub-populations in the primary mass - redshift plane, with the lighter population, $\lesssim$ 20 $M_\odot$, disappearing at higher redshifts, $z > 0.4$. The mass ratio distribution shows no support for symmetric binaries. The observed population of coalescing binary black holes evolves with look-back time, suggesting a trend in metallicity with redshift and/or the presence of multiple, redshift-dependent formation channels.

astro-ph.HE↗