arXiv subjects

Wayne Gao

Publications and source records attributed to Wayne Gao.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

When "Normalization Without Loss of Generality" Loses Generality

Normalization is ubiquitous in economics, and a growing literature shows that ``normalizations'' can matter for interpretation, counterfactual analysis, misspecification, and inference. This paper provides a general framework for these issues, based on the formalized notion of modeling equivalence that partitions the space of unknowns into equivalence classes, and defines normalization as a WLOG selection of one representative from each class. A counterfactual parameter is normalization-free if and only if it is constant on equivalence classes; otherwise any point identification is created by the normalization rather than by the model. Applications to discrete choice, demand estimation, and network formation illustrate the insights made explicit through this criterion. We then study two further sources of fragility: an extension trilemma establishes that fidelity, invariance, and regularity cannot simultaneously hold at a boundary singularity, while a normalization can itself introduce a coordinate singularity that distorts the topological and metric structures of the parameter space, with consequences for estimation and inference.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

How Well Do LLMs Predict Human Behavior? A Measure of their Pretrained Knowledge

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to predict human behavior. We propose a measure for evaluating how much knowledge a pretrained LLM brings to such a prediction: its equivalent sample size, defined as the amount of task-specific data needed to match the predictive accuracy of the LLM. We estimate this measure by comparing the prediction error of a fixed LLM in a given domain to that of flexible machine learning models trained on increasing samples of domain-specific data. We further provide a statistical inference procedure by developing a new asymptotic theory for cross-validated prediction error. Finally, we apply this method to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find that LLMs encode considerable predictive information for some economic variables but much less for others, suggesting that their value as substitutes for domain-specific data differs markedly across settings.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2020

How Flexible is that Functional Form? Quantifying the Restrictiveness of Theories

We propose a restrictiveness measure for economic models based on how well they fit synthetic data from a pre-defined class. This measure, together with a measure for how well the model fits real data, outlines a Pareto frontier, where models that rule out more regularities, yet capture the regularities that are present in real data, are preferred. To illustrate our approach, we evaluate the restrictiveness of popular models in two laboratory settings -- certainty equivalents and initial play -- and in one field setting -- takeup of microfinance in Indian villages. The restrictiveness measure reveals new insights about each of the models, including that some economic models with only a few parameters are very flexible.

econ.TH↗