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Xiaowei Jia

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaowei Jia.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Earth System World Model for What-If Simulations: A Case Study for Terrestrial Ecosystems

Machine learning emulators have become essential for accelerating expensive Earth-system simulations, but most existing approaches remain passive forecasters: they reproduce simulator trajectories under prescribed forcings without an explicit interaction mechanism for user-specified interventions. This limits their use in interactive scientific workflows and Earth-system digital twins, where users often need to explore how a system would respond if selected state components were changed. We propose an action-conditioned world-modeling framework for Earth-system emulation that reformulates simulator trajectories as supervision for controllable state-transition learning. The key idea is transition-action pretraining: naturally observed state changes are treated as label-free action supervision, allowing the model to learn both prescribed dynamics and action-conditioned responses without manually annotated interventions. We further introduce masked response learning to infer unobserved variables under partial state edits and learn coupled system dependencies. We test this framework on ecosystem dynamics across six global regions and multiple stand ages. Experiments show that the model preserves competitive long-horizon emulation accuracy while enabling controllable structural interventions and coherent responses in coupled ecosystem-cycle variables. These results suggest a practical route from passive Earth-system emulators toward interactive, intervention-aware scientific surrogates.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

A Two-Stage Framework for Ego-Centric Key Object Identification via Object State Prediction

This paper presents a novel framework designed to enhance key object identification in autonomous driving. Existing methods primarily focus on either detecting objects independently or leveraging visual relationships, but they do not explicitly consider the ego vehicle's perspective in determining object importance. To address this gap, we propose a structured approach that integrates a virtual ego-vehicle representation and a modular object state predictor, enabling a more accurate estimation of object behaviors relative to the ego-vehicle. Subsequently, our framework employs spatial-temporal reasoning to refine key object identification, prioritizing objects based on their states and relative spatial information rather than relying solely on visual relationships. Experimental results on real-world driving datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in accurately detecting critical objects in complex traffic environments.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

Quantifying Event Impacts on Time Series via Multiscale Contrastive Learning

Shocks that spread through the web, such as cybersecurity breach disclosures, can abruptly disrupt financial time series and cause substantial abnormal losses. While these events are disclosed as discrete records through news reports, regulatory filings, or public databases, their consequences unfold through continuous market dynamics. This creates an event-conditioned impact prediction problem: given pre-event market history and limited event metadata, the goal is to estimate short-term post-disclosure abnormal loss rather than reconstruct the full post-event trajectory. However, most time-series forecasting models focus on endogenous regularities such as trend, seasonality, and autocorrelation, and thus struggle with rare and heterogeneous external events. The challenge is further amplified by sparse high-impact events and background market noise. We introduce EventTime, a multi-resolution framework that combines long-horizon market context, short-horizon pre-event dynamics, and event metadata. It incorporates an event fusion module that couples temporal representations with event attributes to identify relevant recent market patterns. To mitigate sparse supervision, EventTime further introduces a dynamic contrastive objective that constructs event- and time-series-aware positive and negative pairs during training. We also construct SECURE, a real-world dataset aligning cybersecurity incidents with stock-market time series and structured and LLM-derived semantic features. Experiments show that EventTime consistently outperforms state-of-the-art time-series and event-aware baselines in estimating post-event financial losses. Further analyses demonstrate more event-sensitive representations, greater robustness to incomplete metadata, and more interpretable estimates of short-term market impact following cybersecurity disclosures.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

TIDE: A Physically Diverse 3D Turbulence Benchmark Dataset for Advancing Scientific Machine Learning

Turbulence is a central testbed for machine learning on physical dynamics because its governing laws are known exactly. However, most existing studies remain in 2D, while 3D turbulence has fundamentally different physics and is far more costly to simulate. Existing 3D resources also typically provide only one realization per configuration, making it difficult to distinguish learning the dynamics from fitting the statistics of a single flow. In this paper, we introduce TIDE (Turbulent Incompressible DNS Ensembles), a 256^3 DNS corpus and benchmark for 3D incompressible turbulence, with 15 configurations on eight controlled axes, independent ensembles, pressure fields, and equation-level verification. The benchmark includes five tasks, standardized learned baselines, controlled generalization splits, and physical-fidelity metrics alongside pointwise error. Across the main forecasting configurations, current learned models barely outperform persistence and still make about twice the error of a spectral solver given the true equations. Moreover, lower pointwise error can coincide with severely distorted small-scale dynamics, showing that accuracy alone does not ensure physical fidelity. Generalization results further show that most regime shifts reflect limited training coverage, whereas forced-to-decay transfer exposes a missing conditioning variable: operators trained under forcing continue to predict driven evolution when the external drive is removed. Closing these accuracy, fidelity, and conditioning gaps is the central open problem made measurable by TIDE.

physics.flu-dyn↗
arXiv2026

UAV3DCrop: Benchmarking 3D Reconstruction in Repeated Multi-Angle UAV Crop Surveys

Accurate 3D crop monitoring underpins data-driven precision agriculture by enabling field-scale analysis of plant structure, growth dynamics, and management response. Modern 3D reconstruction methods perform strongly on generic benchmarks, but rendered appearance may not translate into metrically and agronomically useful geometry in crop fields. We introduce UAV3DCrop, a public benchmark of repeated multi-angle unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) crop surveys. It contains 88,830 RGB images at $5280 \times 3956$ pixels, with a ground sampling distance of 3.6-5.8 mm, from 91 scenes spanning corn, soybean, wheat, and oat. Track A evaluates seven scene-optimized methods -- Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) and 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) variants -- on held-out views, photogrammetry-referenced depth, and canopy-height recovery. Track B tests four pretrained feed-forward models on zero-shot camera-pose and geometry estimation. The scene-optimized methods rank differently across the three targets: Splatfacto-big leads appearance, whereas Scaffold-GS leads depth and is statistically tied with Splatfacto for canopy height. Among feed-forward models, MapAnything leads on seven of the eight metrics, while the remaining models vary more across crops and fail severely on absolute scale in a way that alignment conceals. Repeated acquisitions reveal further sensitivities that differ by output type and by model, associated with position within the acquisition sequence and with tie-point multiplicity. Current 3D reconstruction methods are therefore not yet interchangeable for agronomic use: no single method wins on appearance, geometry, and canopy height at once, and only one of four feed-forward models recovers usable metric scale. The dataset is publicly available at https://link-dev.github.io/UAV3DCrop/

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

PIER: Physics-Informed Environmental Retrieval for Time-Series Modeling

Accurate modeling of environmental systems is fundamental to scientific understanding and decision-making, yet remains challenging because observations are limited and physical dynamics vary across systems. Retrieval-augmented approaches offer a natural path to transfer knowledge across systems, but standard embedding-based retrieval does not guarantee consistency of underlying physical processes, since scenarios with similar embeddings may arise from different underlying mechanisms. We propose Physics-Informed Environmental Retrieval (PIER), a model-agnostic framework that augments embedding-based retrieval with a physics-aware stream that scores candidates by flux-response consistency with the target, using local verifiers trained on physics-derived flux features. A weight adjustment mechanism then learns per-scenario weights that adaptively balance the two retrieval streams based on diagnostic features summarizing physics-stream reliability. Experiments on 356 lakes across the Midwestern United States spanning 41 years show that PIER consistently outperforms baselines for water temperature and dissolved oxygen prediction, and serves as a general augmentation strategy across diverse backbones.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Physics-Preserving Latent Compression for Zero-Shot Resolution Transfer in 3D Turbulence

High-resolution turbulence modeling is essential for scientific computing, but remains constrained by the cost of direct numerical simulation and the scarcity of full-resolution data. Existing scientific compressors reduce storage but typically operate on per-frame representations, whereas learned compressors yield compact latents that are often resolution-dependent and weakly aligned with the physics of turbulence. This raises the need for a compression framework that reduces data size, preserves physical diagnostics, and transfers from low-resolution training fields to high-resolution test fields without retraining. In this paper, we propose Physics-Preserving Latent Compression (PPLC), a patch-local latent compressor for three-dimensional turbulence. Motivated by inertial-range scale similarity, PPLC treats fixed-size patches as transferable units and applies a shared variational autoencoder independently of the global grid size. It combines exact mean preservation, zero-mean fluctuation encoding, an invertible Haar wavelet front-end, shift-consistency regularization, and overlap-aware reconstruction. Instantiated on forced isotropic turbulence, PPLC is trained only on stride-downsampled 256^3 fields and transfers zero-shot to 1024^3 fields. Experiments show that PPLC improves the balance between reconstruction accuracy and physical fidelity over classical and learned baselines, keeping diagnostics such as dissipation, enstrophy, energy spectra, and incompressibility closer to the ground truth. Beyond turbulence compression, PPLC offers a general strategy for physics-preserving latent representations that support data-efficient scientific surrogate modeling.

physics.flu-dyn↗
arXiv2026

Estimating Mutual Information between Time Series and Temporal Event Sequences Across Diverse Analysis Tasks

Pairwise dependence measures such as correlation and causality are fundamental to temporal data mining, yet there is still no principled and robust way to quantify dependence between heterogeneous data types, especially between continuous time series and discrete temporal event sequences. Existing approaches rely on ad hoc transformations or mutual-information estimators that are highly sensitive to quantization, repeated values, and event redundancy, leading to biased or unstable results in practice. We propose a nonparametric mutual information estimator that directly measures the dependence between time series and event sequences without data transformation, learning, or ad hoc discretization. Our method models the continuous-discrete duality of real-world time series to handle quantization and repeated-value artifacts and introduces a latent event clustering strategy to mitigate bias from event co-occurrence and redundancy. Together, these yield a robust and unified framework that bridges discrete and continuous mutual information. We evaluate the proposed estimator on four representative tasks: discrete-continuous time-delayed mutual information for causality analysis, global and local temporal repetition discovery, discrete covariate selection for time series forecasting, and continuous feature selection for classification. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show consistent improvements over existing methods in accuracy, robustness, and interpretability, positioning our approach as a general-purpose dependence operator for heterogeneous temporal data, similar to Pearson correlation for homogeneous time series. Code available at: https://github.com/HaojiHu/Multimodal-Temporal-Data-Quantification

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

CHAM-net: A Contrastive Hierarchical Adaptive Meta-network for Robust Global Methane Flux Prediction

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that significantly contributes to global warming. However, accurately estimating global methane emissions and consumption remains challenging due to the complex interactions among environmental drivers that may vary across spatial and temporal scales. Prior data-driven methods often overlook the inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity of ecosystems, failing to explicitly capture site-specific characteristics and cross-year evolutionary dynamics. To address these issues, we propose the Contrastive Hierarchical Adaptive Meta-network (CHAM-net), a novel framework that explicitly learns from historical context to capture site-specific dynamics. CHAM-net employs a hierarchical encoder-decoder architecture, in which the encoder captures site-specific characteristics from historical data and then dynamically conditions the decoder to generate the final prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that CHAM-net consistently outperforms all baseline methods on both simulation and observational datasets for methane emission and consumption, achieving nRMSE values as low as 0.43 and 0.88 with corresponding R2 scores up to 0.97 and 0.68 for emission prediction.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Beyond Visual Fidelity: Benchmarking Super-Resolution Models for Large-Scale Remote Sensing Imagery via Downstream Task Integration

Super-resolution (SR) techniques have made major advances in reconstructing high-resolution images from low-resolution inputs. The increased resolution provides visual enhancement and utility for monitoring tasks. In particular, SR has been increasingly developed for satellite-based Earth observation, with applications in urban planning, agriculture, ecology, and disaster response. However, existing SR studies and benchmarks typically use fidelity metrics such as PSNR or SSIM, whereas the true utility of super-resolved images lies in supporting downstream tasks such as land cover classification, biomass estimation, and change detection. To bridge this gap, we introduce GeoSR-Bench, a downstream task-integrated SR benchmark dataset to evaluate SR models beyond fidelity metrics. GeoSR-Bench comprises spatially co-located, temporally aligned, and quality-controlled image pairs from about 36,000 locations across diverse land covers, spanning resolutions from 500m to 0.6m. To the best of our knowledge, GeoSR-Bench is the first SR benchmark that directly connects improved image resolution from SR models with downstream Earth monitoring tasks, including land cover segmentation, infrastructure mapping, and biophysical variable estimation. Using GeoSR-Bench, we benchmark GAN, transformer, neural operator, and diffusion-based SR models on perceptual quality and downstream task performance. We conduct experiments with 270 settings, covering 2 cross-platform SR tasks, 9 SR models, 3 downstream task models, and 5 downstream tasks for each SR task. The results show that improvements in traditional SR metrics often do not correlate with gains in task performance, and the correlations can be negative, indicating that these metrics provide limited guidance for selecting superior models for downstream tasks. This reveals the need to integrate downstream tasks into SR model development and evaluation.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

FlowRefiner: Flow Matching-Based Iterative Refinement for 3D Turbulent Flow Simulation

Accurate autoregressive prediction of 3D turbulent flows remains challenging for neural PDE solvers, as small errors in fine-scale structures can accumulate rapidly over rollout. In this paper, we propose FlowRefiner, a flow matching-based iterative refinement framework for 3D turbulent flow simulation. The method replaces stochastic denoising refinement with deterministic ODE-based correction, uses a unified velocity-field regression objective across all refinement stages, and introduces a decoupled sigma schedule that fixes the noise range independently of refinement depth. These design choices yield stable and effective refinement in the small-noise regime. Experiments on large-scale 3D turbulence with rich multi-scale structures show that FlowRefiner achieves state-of-the-art autoregressive prediction accuracy and strong physical consistency. Although developed for turbulent flow simulation, the proposed framework is broadly applicable to iterative refinement problems in scientific modeling.

physics.flu-dyn↗
arXiv2026

Flow Learners for PDEs: Toward a Physics-to-Physics Paradigm for Scientific Computing

Partial differential equations (PDEs) govern nearly every physical process in science and engineering, but solving them at scale remains prohibitively expensive. Generative AI has transformed language, vision, and protein science, but learned PDE solvers have not undergone a comparable shift. Existing paradigms each capture part of the problem. Physics-informed neural networks embed residual structure, although they are often difficult to optimize in stiff, multiscale, or large-domain regimes. Neural operators amortize across instances, although they commonly inherit a snapshot-prediction view of solving and can degrade over long rollouts. Diffusion-based solvers model uncertainty, although they are often built on a solver template that still centers on state regression. We argue that the core issue is the abstraction used to train learned solvers. Many models are asked to predict states, while many scientific settings require modeling how uncertainty moves through constrained dynamics. The relevant object is transport over physically admissible futures. This motivates flow learners: models that parameterize transport vector fields and generate trajectories through integration, echoing the continuous dynamics that define PDE evolution. This physics-to-physics alignment supports continuous-time prediction, native uncertainty quantification, and new opportunities for physics-aware solver design. We explain why transport-based learning offers a stronger organizing principle for learned PDE solving and outline the research agenda that follows from this shift.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Retrieval-Augmented Multi-scale Framework for County-Level Crop Yield Prediction Across Large Regions

This paper proposes a new method for crop yield prediction, which is essential for developing management strategies, informing insurance assessments, and ensuring long-term food security. Although existing data-driven approaches have shown promise in this domain, their performance often degrades when applied across large geographic regions and long time periods. This limitation arises from two key challenges: (1) difficulty in jointly capturing short-term and long-term temporal patterns, and (2) inability to effectively accommodate spatial data variability in agricultural systems. Ignoring these issues often leads to unreliable predictions for specific regions or years, which ultimately affects policy decisions and resource allocation. In this paper, we propose a new predictive framework to address these challenges. First, we introduce a new backbone model architecture that captures both short-term daily-scale crop growth dynamics and long-term dependencies across years. To further improve generalization across diverse spatial regions, we augment this model with a retrieval-based adaptation strategy. Recognizing the substantial yield variation across years, we design a novel retrieval-and-refinement pipeline that adjusts retrieved samples by removing cross-year bias not explained by input features. Our experiments on real-world county-level corn yield data over 630 counties in the US demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms different types of baselines. The results also verify the effectiveness of the retrieval-based augmentation method in improving model robustness under spatial heterogeneity.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Role-Aware Conditional Inference for Spatiotemporal Ecosystem Carbon Flux Prediction

Accurate prediction of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes (e.g., CO$_2$, GPP, and CH$_4$) is essential for understanding the global carbon cycle and managing its impacts. However, prediction remains challenging due to strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity: ecosystem flux responses are constrained by slowly varying regime conditions, while short-term fluctuations are driven by high-frequency dynamic forcings. Most existing learning-based approaches treat environmental covariates as a homogeneous input space, implicitly assuming a global response function, which leads to brittle generalization across heterogeneous ecosystems. In this work, we propose Role-Aware Conditional Inference (RACI), a process-informed learning framework that formulates ecosystem flux prediction as a conditional inference problem. RACI employs hierarchical temporal encoding to disentangle slow regime conditioners from fast dynamic drivers, and incorporates role-aware spatial retrieval that supplies functionally similar and geographically local context for each role. By explicitly modeling these distinct functional roles, RACI enables a model to adapt its predictions across diverse environmental regimes without training separate local models or relying on fixed spatial structures. We evaluate RACI across multiple ecosystem types (wetlands and agricultural systems), carbon fluxes (CO$_2$, GPP, CH$_4$), and data sources, including both process-based simulations and observational measurements. Across all settings, RACI consistently outperforms competitive spatiotemporal baselines, demonstrating improved accuracy and spatial generalization under pronounced environmental heterogeneity.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

PEST: Physics-Enhanced Swin Transformer for 3D Turbulence Simulation

Accurate simulation of turbulent flows is fundamental to scientific and engineering applications. Direct numerical simulation (DNS) offers the highest fidelity but is computationally prohibitive, while existing data-driven alternatives struggle with stable long-horizon rollouts, physical consistency, and faithful simulation of small-scale structures. These challenges are particularly acute in three-dimensional (3D) settings, where the cubic growth of spatial degrees of freedom dramatically amplifies computational cost, memory demand, and the difficulty of capturing multi-scale interactions. To address these challenges, we propose a Physics-Enhanced Swin Transformer (PEST) for 3D turbulence simulation. PEST leverages a window-based self-attention mechanism to effectively model localized PDE interactions while maintaining computational efficiency. We introduce a frequency-domain adaptive loss that explicitly emphasizes small-scale structures, enabling more faithful simulation of high-frequency dynamics. To improve physical consistency, we incorporate Navier--Stokes residual constraints and divergence-free regularization directly into the learning objective. Extensive experiments on two representative turbulent flow configurations demonstrate that PEST achieves accurate, physically consistent, and stable autoregressive long-term simulations, outperforming existing data-driven baselines.

physics.flu-dyn↗
arXiv2026

AgroFlux: A Spatial-Temporal Benchmark for Carbon and Nitrogen Flux Prediction in Agricultural Ecosystems

Agroecosystem, which heavily influenced by human actions and accounts for a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), plays a crucial role in mitigating global climate change and securing environmental sustainability. However, we can't manage what we can't measure. Accurately quantifying the pools and fluxes in the carbon, nutrient, and water nexus of the agroecosystem is therefore essential for understanding the underlying drivers of GHG and developing effective mitigation strategies. Conventional approaches like soil sampling, process-based models, and black-box machine learning models are facing challenges such as data sparsity, high spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and complex subsurface biogeochemical and physical processes. Developing new trustworthy approaches such as AI-empowered models, will require the AI-ready benchmark dataset and outlined protocols, which unfortunately do not exist. In this work, we introduce a first-of-its-kind spatial-temporal agroecosystem GHG benchmark dataset that integrates physics-based model simulations from Ecosys and DayCent with real-world observations from eddy covariance flux towers and controlled-environment facilities. We evaluate the performance of various sequential deep learning models on carbon and nitrogen flux prediction, including LSTM-based models, temporal CNN-based model, and Transformer-based models. Furthermore, we explored transfer learning to leverage simulated data to improve the generalization of deep learning models on real-world observations. Our benchmark dataset and evaluation framework contribute to the development of more accurate and scalable AI-driven agroecosystem models, advancing our understanding of ecosystem-climate interactions.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Learning PDE Solvers with Physics and Data: A Unifying View of Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Neural Operators

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are central to scientific modeling. Modern workflows increasingly rely on learning-based components to support model reuse, inference, and integration across large computational processes. Despite the emergence of various physics-aware data-driven approaches, the field still lacks a unified perspective to uncover their relationships, limitations, and appropriate roles in scientific workflows. To this end, we propose a unifying perspective to place two dominant paradigms: Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) and Neural Operators (NOs), within a shared design space. We organize existing methods from three fundamental dimensions: what is learned, how physical structures are integrated into the learning process, and how the computational load is amortized across problem instances. In this way, many challenges can be best understood as consequences of these structural properties of learning PDEs. By analyzing advances through this unifying view, our survey aims to facilitate the development of reliable learning-based PDE solvers and catalyze a synthesis of physics and data.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Accelerating MHC-II Epitope Discovery via Multi-Scale Prediction in Antigen Presentation

Antigenic epitope presented by major histocompatibility complex II (MHC-II) proteins plays an essential role in immunotherapy. However, compared to the more widely studied MHC-I in computational immunotherapy, the study of MHC-II antigenic epitope poses significantly more challenges due to its complex binding specificity and ambiguous motif patterns. Consequently, existing datasets for MHC-II interactions are smaller and less standardized than those available for MHC-I. To address these challenges, we present a well-curated dataset derived from the Immune Epitope Database (IEDB) and other public sources. It not only extends and standardizes existing peptide-MHC-II datasets, but also introduces a novel antigen-MHC-II dataset with richer biological context. Leveraging this dataset, we formulate three major machine learning (ML) tasks of peptide binding, peptide presentation, and antigen presentation, which progressively capture the broader biological processes within the MHC-II antigen presentation pathway. We further employ a multi-scale evaluation framework to benchmark existing models, along with a comprehensive analysis over various modeling designs to this problem with a modular framework. Overall, this work serves as a valuable resource for advancing computational immunotherapy, providing a foundation for future research in ML guided epitope discovery and predictive modeling of immune responses.

cs.LG↗