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Xiaoyu Tao

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaoyu Tao.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

A Human-in-the-Loop Autonomous Agent for Industry Time Series Forecasting

Real-world time-series forecasting is rarely a one-shot model invocation: practitioners must formulate tasks, connect data and models, incorporate domain expertise, assess prediction plausibility, and communicate uncertainty. Specialized forecasting models provide strong numerical predictions but usually operate in fixed pipelines, while general-purpose large language model (LLM) agents often lack forecasting-specific checks, constraints, and stopping rules. We present CastClaw, a human-in-the-loop autonomous forecasting system built through forecasting-oriented harness engineering. CastClaw connects data, specialized models, analytical tools, user input, and a versioned execution record in one runtime. Users specify the target, horizon, constraints, and hypotheses in natural language. Starting from a supplied or model-generated forecast, CastClaw checks temporal patterns and user constraints; when evidence is missing, it retrieves context, runs an analysis or another model, or asks the user. It then keeps, revises, or escalates the result under explicit stopping conditions. The output contains the final forecast and an execution report recording inputs, evidence, actions, and revisions. In this five-dataset electricity-price setting, CastClaw reports the lowest point-estimate MSE and MAE among 16 baselines. A Nord Pool case demonstrates the inspectable workflow. CastClaw was also validated offline on provincial electricity-load data from North China covering January--June 2026.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Mind2Report: Expert-Level Commercial Report Synthesis via Cognitive Deep Research Agent

Synthesizing informative commercial reports from massive and noisy web sources is critical for high-stakes business decisions. Although recent deep research agents (DRAs) achieve notable progress, their reports remain limited in quality, reliability, and coverage. These mainly stem from ambiguous intents that cause search drift, retrieved web content that rapidly saturates the context window, and single-pass synthesis that limits report comprehensiveness. In this work, we propose Mind2Report, a cognitive deep research agent that emulates commercial analysts to synthesize expert-level reports. Mind2Report first probes fine-grained commercial intent to establish a structured outline, then recursively explores web sources and distills validated evidence into research memory to preserve context efficiency. Meanwhile, the research memory and outline continuously co-evolve, refining the report structure to avoid rigid initial planning. Finally, Mind2Report iteratively synthesizes the report based on the evolving outline and accumulated evidence. Together, these designs enable reliable and context-efficient long-horizon commercial deep research. To rigorously evaluate commercial DRAs, we further construct QRC-Eval, comprising 200 real-world commercial tasks and a holistic evaluation framework covering report quality, reliability, and coverage. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Mind2Report consistently outperforms leading proprietary and open-source DRAs, while ablations verify the effectiveness of each module and further analyze the challenges they address. We expect this work to advance the development of commercial deep research agents.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

CastFSR: A Fast--Slow--Reflect Agentic Reasoning Framework for Context-Aware Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is fundamental to decision-making in complex systems, where future dynamics are influenced not only by historical observations but also by evolving contextual features. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have extended forecasting beyond numerical extrapolation toward context-aware reasoning. However, existing approaches often lack explicit mechanisms to identify relevant contexts, reason about their impacts, and validate forecasts against temporal and domain constraints. In this work, we propose CastFSR, an agentic framework that formulates context-aware forecasting as a Fast--Slow--Reflect workflow. In fast thinking, CastFSR profiles observations and selects lightweight forecasters to construct a data-driven forecast prior. In slow deliberation, it retrieves contextual evidence, adaptively determines informative look-back windows, and reasons about how contexts reshape future dynamics. In reflection, it iteratively refines forecasts to ensure temporal, contextual, and domain consistency. CastFSR supports both training-free inference with off-the-shelf LLMs and efficient deployment through a two-stage SFT and reinforcement learning strategy that transfers its orchestration capability to compact LLMs. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate that CastFSR consistently outperforms representative baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/CastFSR.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

GeoDecider: An Evidence-Grounded Agent for Geological Interpretation via Deliberative Reasoning

Geological interpretation infers subsurface properties and structures from indirect geophysical observations. Well-log classification provides a measurable setting by assigning geological classes to depth-indexed petrophysical records. The task is difficult because different subsurface units may exhibit similar logging responses, whereas accurate interpretation often depends on local measurements, depth-wise context, domain knowledge, and reasonable transitions between neighboring layers. Existing automated methods mainly follow fixed prediction pipelines, leaving little room to gather additional evidence for difficult samples. In this work, we propose GeoDecider, an evidence-grounded agent for deliberative geological interpretation. GeoDecider retains efficient numerical prediction as the first stage, then selectively invokes tool-assisted reasoning for difficult intervals. A lightweight classifier produces point-wise predictions and estimates sample difficulty from its prediction scores. High-difficulty points act as routing anchors, triggering interval-level analysis so that nearby observations can be examined together. For each activated interval, specialized tools build an Evidence Profile that summarizes geological knowledge, depth-wise trends, previous predictions from the same well, and similar cases retrieved from training wells. Three complementary scientific views generate candidate interpretations. GeoDecider compares their supporting evidence, resolves disagreements, then applies geology-informed checks on continuity, boundary cues, and petrophysical consistency. Experiments on four public well-log benchmarks show that GeoDecider consistently outperforms representative baselines, demonstrating the value of selective evidence gathering and deliberative reasoning for geological interpretation.~\footnote{Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/GeoDecider}

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

TableMind: An Autonomous Programmatic Agent for Tool-Augmented Table Reasoning

Table reasoning requires models to jointly perform comprehensive semantic understanding and precise numerical operations. Although recent large language model (LLM)-based methods have achieved promising results, most of them still rely on a single-turn reasoning paradigm that processes flattened tables in a single forward pass. This paradigm suffers from inherent limitations, including context overflow on large tables, weak sensitivity to continuous numerical values, and the absence of explicit tool-use and reflection. In this paper, we propose TableMind, a tuning-based autonomous programmatic table agent that simulates the human-like cognitive schema of the multi-turn interaction within a lightweight LLM. Instead of adopting a training-free workflow design, TableMind learns to internalize planning, action, and reflection through a principled two-stage training strategy. To bootstrap structured table reasoning capabilities, we construct and filter high-quality reasoning data for the supervised fine-tuning (SFT) stage. To enable precise code generation, we introduce a designed multi-perspective reward scheme and a novel optimization objective in the reinforcement learning (RL) stage. Extensive experiments on diverse benchmarks demonstrate that TableMind consistently outperforms previous baselines, validating the effectiveness of training autonomous agents to improve overall performance.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

CoGenCast: A Coupled Autoregressive-Flow Generative Framework for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting can be viewed as a generative problem that requires both semantic understanding over contextual conditions and stochastic modeling of continuous temporal dynamics. Existing approaches typically rely on either autoregressive large language models (LLMs) for semantic context modeling or diffusion-like models for continuous probabilistic generation. However, neither method alone can adequately model both aspects simultaneously. In this work, we propose CoGenCast, a hybrid generative framework that couples pre-trained LLMs with flow-matching mechanism for effective time series forecasting. Specifically, we reconfigure pre-trained decoder-only LLMs into a native forecasting encoder-decoder backbone by modifying only the attention topology, enabling bidirectional context encoding and causal representation generation. Building on this, a flow-matching mechanism is further integrated to model temporal evolution, capturing continuous stochastic dynamics conditioned on the autoregressively generated representation. Notably, CoGenCast naturally supports multimodal forecasting and cross-domain unified training. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks show that CoGenCast achieves competitive performance compared to previous baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/liuyaguo/_CoGenCast.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

From Values to Tokens: An LLM-Driven Framework for Context-aware Time Series Forecasting via Symbolic Discretization

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in supporting decision-making across a wide range of critical applications, including energy, healthcare, and finance. Despite recent advances, forecasting accuracy remains limited due to the challenge of integrating historical numerical sequences with contextual features, which often comprise unstructured textual data. To address this challenge, we propose TokenCast, a large language model (LLM) driven framework that leverages language-based symbolic representations as a unified intermediary for context-aware time series forecasting. Specifically, TokenCast employs a discrete tokenizer to transform continuous numerical sequences into temporal tokens, enabling structural alignment with language-based inputs. To effectively bridge the semantic gap between modalities, both temporal and contextual tokens are embedded into a shared representation space via a pre-trained LLM, further optimized with generative objectives. Building upon this unified semantic space, the aligned LLM is subsequently fine-tuned in a supervised manner to predict future temporal tokens, which are then decoded back into the original numerical space. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework and highlight its potential as a generative framework for context-aware time series forecasting. The code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/TokenCast.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

InstructTime++: Time Series Classification with Multimodal Language Modeling via Implicit Feature Enhancement

Most existing time series classification methods adopt a discriminative paradigm that maps input sequences directly to one-hot encoded class labels. While effective, this paradigm struggles to incorporate contextual features and fails to capture semantic relationships among classes. To address these limitations, we propose InstructTime, a novel framework that reformulates time series classification as a multimodal generative task. Specifically, continuous numerical sequences, contextual textual features, and task instructions are treated as multimodal inputs, while class labels are generated as textual outputs by tuned language models. To bridge the modality gap, InstructTime introduces a time series discretization module that converts continuous sequences into discrete temporal tokens, together with an alignment projection layer and a generative self-supervised pre-training strategy to enhance cross-modal representation alignment. Building upon this framework, we further propose InstructTime++, which extends InstructTime by incorporating implicit feature modeling to compensate for the limited inductive bias of language models. InstructTime++ leverages specialized toolkits to mine informative implicit patterns from raw time series and contextual inputs, including statistical feature extraction and vision-language-based image captioning, and translates them into textual descriptions for seamless integration. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of InstructTime++.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ScholarSum: Student-Teacher Abstractive Summarization via Knowledge Graph Reasoning and Reflective Refinement

Abstractive summarization plays a crucial role in enabling efficient understanding of scientific literature, yet it inherently demands both linguistic fluency and factual faithfulness. Existing approaches often fail to reconcile these two requirements. Extractive methods rely on rigid sentence splicing that disrupts macro-level logical coherence, while large language model (LLM)-based generative approaches, despite mastering linguistic fluency, exhibit limited factual consistency. In this work, we propose ScholarSum, a hierarchical reflective graph-based framework that emulates a student-teacher writing process for fluent and faithful scientific summarization. ScholarSum first organizes the document into a hierarchical knowledge graph by segmenting it into semantically coherent units, whose multi-layered community structure captures global logic and macro-level themes. Guided by this global structure, the student generates an initial draft, which is subsequently refined through fine-grained evidence retrieval. To ensure factual consistency, a teacher-like reviewer then iteratively examines the draft, identifies unsupported content, and prompts targeted re-retrieval and rewriting until the summary meets rigorous quality standards. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ScholarSum significantly outperforms previous baselines in terms of both completeness and faithfulness. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/ScholarSum.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

MemCast: Memory-Driven Time Series Forecasting with Experience-Conditioned Reasoning

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, large language model (LLM)- based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit experience accumulation and continual evolution. In this work, we propose MemCast, a learning-to-memory framework that reformulates TSF as an experience-conditioned reasoning task. Specifically, we learn experience from the training set and organize it into a hierarchical memory. This is achieved by summarizing prediction results into historical patterns, distilling inference trajectories into reasoning wisdom, and inducing extracted temporal features into general laws. Furthermore, during inference, we leverage historical patterns to guide the reasoning process and utilize reasoning wisdom to select better trajectories, while general laws serve as criteria for reflective iteration. Additionally, to enable continual evolution, we design a dynamic confidence adaptation strategy that updates the confidence of individual entries without leaking the test set distribution. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that MemCast consistently outperforms previous methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/MemCast-TS.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

AnomaMind: Agentic Time Series Anomaly Detection with Tool-Augmented Reasoning

Time series anomaly detection is critical in many real-world applications, where effective solutions must localize anomalous regions and support reliable decision-making under complex settings. However, most existing methods frame anomaly detection as a purely discriminative prediction task with fixed feature representations, rather than an evidence-driven diagnostic process. As a result, they often struggle when anomalies exhibit strong context dependence, diverse patterns, or domain shifts across datasets. To address these challenges, we propose AnomaMind, an agentic time series anomaly detection framework that reformulates anomaly detection as a sequential decision-making process. AnomaMind operates through a coarse-to-fine workflow that first localizes suspicious intervals, then constructs diagnostic evidence through tool interaction, and finally refines anomaly decisions through self-reflection. The workflow is supported by a toolkit box that combines knowledge memory and numerical diagnostics: visual anomaly patterns mined from training data and domain knowledge provide contextual guidance, while statistical, value-based, change-based, and region-level operators provide measurable evidence for verification. AnomaMind further adopts a hybrid inference mechanism in which general-purpose models handle flexible reasoning, tool invocation, and refinement, while a detection-specific policy is optimized with rule-based rewards for parsable outputs, F1-score alignment, and false-positive control. Extensive experiments under both in-domain and cross-domain settings demonstrate that AnomaMind consistently improves anomaly detection performance and enhances generalization across heterogeneous anomaly patterns, validating the effectiveness of tool-augmented reasoning for anomaly detection. The code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/AnomaMind-TS.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

TabClaw: An Interactive and Self-Evolving Agent for Spreadsheet Manipulation and Table Reasoning

Spreadsheets and tables are widely used representations for structured data analysis, but effective analysis still requires substantial manual effort and domain expertise. Recent large language model (LLM) agents can automate parts of this process, but they often provide limited transparency into intermediate decisions, rely on implicit assumptions, struggle with multi-table comparison, and repeat similar workflows without adapting to a user's preferences. This paper presents TabClaw, an open-source interactive AI agent for spreadsheet manipulation and table reasoning. Users upload CSV or Excel files and issue natural-language requests; TabClaw clarifies ambiguous intent, exposes an editable execution plan, streams a ReAct-style tool-using analysis loop, dispatches specialist agents for parallel multi-table reasoning, and synthesizes findings with explicit consensus and uncertainty markers. Beyond one-off analysis, TabClaw records completed workflows, extracts persistent user memory, distills reusable skills from repeated tool-use patterns, supports package-style skill import, and upgrades skills from negative feedback. Experiments on spreadsheet manipulation and table reasoning benchmarks show that TabClaw improves executable task completion and reasoning performance while preserving an inspectable user workflow. This paper shows how TabClaw turns spreadsheets and tables into inspectable analytical workflows while gradually personalizing itself to recurring data-analysis tasks. Our code is available.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Agent-R1: A Unified and Modular Framework for Agentic Reinforcement Learning

Large language models (LLMs) have rapidly evolved from single-turn text generators into the foundation of increasingly capable agents. As these agents take on more complex reasoning, decision making, tool use, and long-horizon tasks, reinforcement learning (RL) is becoming increasingly important for shaping their behavior. This shift is especially visible in agentic RL, where models must interact with tools and environments across multiple rounds rather than produce a single standalone response. In this regime, the usual view of a trajectory as one ever-growing token sequence becomes increasingly inadequate: it makes context evolution rigid and creates representation mismatches between rollout and training. This paper presents Agent-R1, a unified and modular framework for agentic RL built around step-level trajectory representation, flexible context management, and layered interfaces for workflows, environments and optimization. The key idea is to treat each interaction step as the basic reinforcement-learning transition, while keeping the optimization layer flexible: once the interaction is modeled at the step level, the framework can support token-level credit assignment, step-level credit assignment, or other compatible designs. These design choices make the framework compatible with a range of optimization strategies rather than tying it to a single algorithm. Together, these components provide a principled, extensible, and reusable substrate for agentic RL.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

CastFlow: Learning Role-Specialized Agentic Workflows for Time Series Forecasting

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown great promise in time series forecasting. However, most existing LLM-based forecasting methods still follow a static generative paradigm that directly maps historical observations to future values in a single pass. Under this paradigm, forecasting is constrained by limited temporal pattern extraction, single-round acquisition of contextual features, one-shot forecast generation, and lack of support from ensemble forecasts. To address these limitations, in this work, we propose CastFlow, a dynamic agentic forecasting framework that enables multi-view temporal pattern extraction, multi-round contextual features acquisition, iterative forecast refinement, and forecasting with ensemble forecasts. First, CastFlow organizes the forecasting process into planning, action, forecasting, and reflection, establishing an agentic workflow. Second, this workflow is supported by a memory module that retrieves prior experience and a multi-view toolkit that constructs diagnostic evidence and provides a reliable ensemble forecast baseline. Third, CastFlow adopts a role-specialized design that combines general-purpose reasoning with specialized numerical forecasting. Under this design, a frozen LLM preserves general-purpose reasoning, while a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM performs evidence-guided numerical forecasting based on the ensemble forecast baseline, rather than from scratch. To optimize a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM, we further develop a two-stage workflow-oriented training that combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). To evaluate the effectiveness of CastFlow, we conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets and show that it achieves superior overall results against strong baselines. We hope that this work can serve as a step toward more adaptive and accurate time series forecasting.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

AlphaCast: A Human Wisdom-LLM Intelligence Co-Reasoning Framework for Interactive Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making across many real-world applications. Despite substantial progress, most existing methods still treat forecasting as a static, single-pass regression problem. In contrast, human experts form predictions through iterative reasoning that integrates temporal features, domain knowledge, case-based references, and supplementary context, with continuous refinement. In this work, we propose Alphacast, an interaction-driven agentic reasoning framework that enables accurate time series forecasting with training-free large language models. Alphacast reformulates forecasting as an expert-like process and organizes it into a multi-stage workflow involving context preparation, reasoning-based generation, and reflective evaluation, transforming forecasting from a single-pass output into a multi-turn, autonomous interaction process. To support diverse perspectives commonly considered by human experts, we develop a lightweight toolkit comprising a feature set, a knowledge base, a case library, and a contextual pool that provides external support for LLM-based reasoning. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks show that Alphacast generally outperforms representative baselines. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/echo01-ai/AlphaCast.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Position: Beyond Model-Centric Prediction -- Agentic Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting has traditionally been formulated as a model-centric, static, and single-pass prediction problem that maps historical observations to future values. While this paradigm has driven substantial progress, it proves insufficient in adaptive and multi-turn settings where forecasting requires informative feature extraction, reasoning-driven inference, iterative refinement, and continual adaptation over time. In this paper, we argue for agentic time series forecasting (ATSF), which reframes forecasting as an agentic process composed of perception, planning, action, reflection, and memory. Rather than focusing solely on predictive models, ATSF emphasizes organizing forecasting as an agentic workflow that can interact with tools, incorporate feedback from outcomes, and evolve through experience accumulation. We outline three representative implementation paradigms -- workflow-based design, agentic reinforcement learning, and a hybrid agentic workflow paradigm -- and discuss the opportunities and challenges that arise when shifting from model-centric prediction to agentic forecasting. Together, this position aims to establish agentic forecasting as a foundation for future research at the intersection of time series forecasting.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

TableMind++: An Uncertainty-Aware Programmatic Agent for Tool-Augmented Table Reasoning

Table reasoning requires models to jointly perform semantic understanding and precise numerical operations. Most existing methods rely on a single-turn reasoning paradigm over tables which suffers from context overflow and weak numerical sensitivity. To address these limitations, we previously proposed TableMind as a tuning-based autonomous programmatic agent that simulates human-like interaction within a lightweight large language model (LLM). TableMind internalizes planning, action, and reflection through a two-stage training strategy involving supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on filtered high-quality data and reinforcement learning (RL) via a multi-perspective reward and the Rank-Aware Policy Optimization (RAPO) algorithm. While TableMind establishes a solid foundation for programmatic agents, the inherent stochasticity of LLMs remains a critical challenge that leads to hallucinations. In this paper, we extend this foundation to TableMind++ by introducing a novel uncertainty-aware inference framework to mitigate hallucinations. Specifically, we propose memory-guided plan pruning to retrieve historical trajectories for validating and filtering out logically flawed plans to address epistemic uncertainty. To ensure execution precision, we introduce confidence-based action refinement which monitors token-level probabilities to detect and self-correct syntactic noise for aleatoric uncertainty mitigation. Finally, we employ dual-weighted trajectory aggregation to synthesize a robust consensus from multiple reasoning paths. Extensive experiments on diverse benchmarks demonstrate that TableMind++ consistently outperforms previous baselines and proprietary models to validate the effectiveness of integrating autonomous training with uncertainty quantification. Our code is available.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

TimeMAE: Self-Supervised Representations of Time Series with Decoupled Masked Autoencoders

Learning transferable representations from unlabeled time series is crucial for improving performance in data-scarce classification. Existing self-supervised methods often operate at the point level and rely on unidirectional encoding, leading to low semantic density and a mismatch between pre-training and downstream optimization. In this paper, we propose TimeMAE, a self-supervised framework that reformulates masked modeling for time series via semantic unit elevation and decoupled representation learning. Instead of modeling individual time steps, TimeMAE segments time series into non-overlapping sub-series to form semantically enriched units, enabling more informative masked reconstruction while reducing computational cost. To address the representation discrepancy introduced by masking, we design a decoupled masked autoencoder that separately encodes visible and masked regions, avoiding artificial masked tokens in the main encoder. To guide pre-training, we introduce two complementary objectives: masked codeword classification, which discretizes sub-series semantics via a learned tokenizer and masked representation regression, which aligns continuous representations through a momentum-updated target encoder. Extensive experiments on five datasets demonstrate that TimeMAE outperforms competitive baselines, particularly in label-scarce scenarios and transfer learning scenarios.

cs.LG↗