arXiv subjects

Xiaoyu Tao

Publications and source records attributed to Xiaoyu Tao.

28 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Cast-R1: Learning Tool-Augmented Sequential Decision Policies for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting has long been dominated by model-centric approaches that formulate prediction as a single-pass mapping from historical observations to future values. Despite recent progress, such formulations often struggle in complex and evolving settings, largely because most forecasting models lack the ability to autonomously acquire informative evidence, reason about potential future changes, or revise predictions through iterative decision processes. In this work, we propose Cast-R1, a learned time series forecasting framework that reformulates forecasting as a sequential decision-making problem. Cast-R1 introduces a memory-based state management mechanism that maintains decision-relevant information across interaction steps, enabling the accumulation of contextual evidence to support long-horizon reasoning. Building on this formulation, forecasting is carried out through a tool-augmented agentic workflow, in which the agent autonomously interacts with a modular toolkit to extract statistical features, invoke lightweight forecasting models for decision support, perform reasoning-based prediction, and iteratively refine forecasts through self-reflection. To train Cast-R1, we adopt a two-stage learning strategy that combines supervised fine-tuning with multi-turn reinforcement learning, together with a curriculum learning scheme that progressively increases task difficulty to improve policy learning. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world time series datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of Cast-R1. We hope this work provides a practical step towards further exploration of agentic paradigms for time series modeling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/Cast-R1-TS.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MemWeaver: A Hierarchical Memory from Textual Interactive Behaviors for Personalized Generation

The primary form of user-internet engagement is shifting from leveraging implicit feedback signals, such as browsing and clicks, to harnessing the rich explicit feedback provided by textual interactive behaviors. This shift unlocks a rich source of user textual history, presenting a profound opportunity for a deeper form of personalization. However, prevailing approaches offer only a shallow form of personalization, as they treat user history as a flat list of texts for retrieval and fail to model the rich temporal and semantic structures reflecting dynamic nature of user interests. In this work, we propose \textbf{MemWeaver}, a framework that weaves the user's entire textual history into a hierarchical memory to power deeply personalized generation. The core innovation of our memory lies in its ability to capture both the temporal evolution of interests and the semantic relationships between different activities. To achieve this, MemWeaver builds two complementary memory components that both integrate temporal and semantic information, but at different levels of abstraction: behavioral memory, which captures specific user actions, and cognitive memory, which represents long-term preferences. This dual-component memory serves as a comprehensive representation of the user, allowing large language models (LLMs) to reason over both concrete behaviors and abstracted cognitive traits. This leads to content generation that is deeply aligned with their latent preferences. Experiments on the six datasets of the Language Model Personalization (LaMP) benchmark validate the efficacy of MemWeaver. Our code is available.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

STaR: Towards Effective and Stable Table Reasoning via Slow-Thinking Large Language Models

Table reasoning with large language models (LLMs) plays a critical role in building intelligent systems capable of understanding and analyzing tabular data. Despite recent progress, existing methods still face key limitations: their reasoning processes lacks depth and explicit multi-step reasoning, often relying solely on implicit language model understanding. In addition, their reasoning processes suffer from instability, primarily caused by model uncertainty. In this work, we propose STaR, a novel slow-thinking model that can achieve effective and stable table reasoning. To enable effective multi-step reasoning, we design a two-stage training framework consisting of supervised fine-tuning (SFT) warm-up followed by reinforced fine-tuning (RFT). Specifically, in the SFT stage, we construct a high-quality dataset through automatic self-verification. In the RFT stage, we introduce a difficulty-aware reinforcement learning mechanism to further enhance reasoning capabilities. Furthermore, to improve reasoning stability, we introduce trajectory-level uncertainty quantification, which fuses token-level confidence with answer-level consistency, enabling the selection of better reasoning trajectories. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STaR-8B achieves state-of-the-art performance on in-domain benchmarks and exhibits strong generalization to out-of-domain datasets, highlighting its potential for enhancing both effectiveness and stability in table reasoning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Can Slow-thinking LLMs Reason Over Time? Empirical Studies in Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting (TSF) is a fundamental and widely studied task, spanning methods from classical statistical approaches to modern deep learning and multimodal language modeling. Despite their effectiveness, these methods often follow a fast thinking paradigm emphasizing pattern extraction and direct value mapping, while overlooking explicit reasoning over temporal dynamics and contextual dependencies. Meanwhile, emerging slow-thinking LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT-o1, DeepSeek-R1) have demonstrated impressive multi-step reasoning capabilities across diverse domains, suggesting a new opportunity for reframing TSF as a structured reasoning task. This motivates a key question: can slow-thinking LLMs effectively reason over temporal patterns to support time series forecasting, even in zero-shot manner? To investigate this, in this paper, we propose TimeReasoner, an extensive empirical study that formulates TSF as a conditional reasoning task. We design a series of prompting strategies to elicit inference-time reasoning from pretrained slow-thinking LLMs and evaluate their performance across diverse TSF benchmarks. Our findings reveal that slow-thinking LLMs exhibit non-trivial zero-shot forecasting capabilities, especially in capturing high-level trends and contextual shifts. While preliminary, our study surfaces important insights into the reasoning behaviors of LLMs in temporal domains highlighting both their potential and limitations. We hope this work catalyzes further research into reasoning-based forecasting paradigms and paves the way toward more interpretable and generalizable TSF frameworks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Hierarchical Multimodal LLMs with Semantic Space Alignment for Enhanced Time Series Classification

Time series classification plays a fundamental role in a wide range of real-world applications. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong generalization and reasoning capacities, but directly applying them to time series classification remains non-trivial due to the representation gap between numerical sequences and linguistic semantics. In this paper, we propose HiTime, a hierarchical LLM-based framework for multimodal time series classification that bridges structured temporal representations with semantic reasoning in a generative paradigm. Specifically, we design a hierarchical sequence feature encoding module composed of a data-specific encoder and a task-specific encoder to extract complementary temporal features. To mitigate the embedding gap between time series representations and textual semantics, we further introduce a semantic space alignment module that jointly performs coarse-grained global modeling and fine-grained cross-modal correspondence. Building upon the above representations, we employ a parameter-efficient supervised fine-tuning strategy to activate the generative classification capability of the algined LLMs, thereby transforming conventional discriminative time series classification into a generative task. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/HiTime.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

OneCast: Structured Decomposition and Modular Generation for Cross-Domain Time Series Forecasting

Cross-domain time series forecasting is a valuable task in various web applications. Despite its rapid advancement, achieving effective generalization across heterogeneous time series data remains a significant challenge. Existing methods have made progress by extending single-domain models, yet often fall short when facing domain-specific trend shifts and inconsistent periodic patterns. We argue that a key limitation lies in treating temporal series as undifferentiated sequence, without explicitly decoupling their inherent structural components. To address this, we propose OneCast, a structured and modular forecasting framework that decomposes time series into seasonal and trend components, each modeled through tailored generative pathways. Specifically, the seasonal component is captured by a lightweight projection module that reconstructs periodic patterns via interpretable basis functions. In parallel, the trend component is encoded into discrete tokens at segment level via a semantic-aware tokenizer, and subsequently inferred through a masked discrete diffusion mechanism. The outputs from both branches are combined to produce a final forecast that captures seasonal patterns while tracking domain-specific trends. Extensive experiments across eight domains demonstrate that OneCast mostly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Conditional Denoising Meets Polynomial Modeling: A Flexible Decoupled Framework for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting models are becoming increasingly prevalent due to their critical role in decision-making across various domains. However, most existing approaches represent the coupled temporal patterns, often neglecting the distinction between their specific components. In particular, fluctuating patterns and smooth trends within time series exhibit distinct characteristics. In this work, to model complicated temporal patterns, we propose a Conditional Denoising Polynomial Modeling (CDPM) framework, where probabilistic diffusion models and deterministic linear models are trained end-to-end. Instead of modeling the coupled time series, CDPM decomposes it into trend and seasonal components for modeling them separately. To capture the fluctuating seasonal component, we employ a probabilistic diffusion model based on statistical properties from the historical window. For the smooth trend component, a module is proposed to enhance linear models by incorporating historical dependencies, thereby preserving underlying trends and mitigating noise distortion. Extensive experiments conducted on six benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework, highlighting the potential of combining probabilistic and deterministic models. Our code is available at https://github.com/zjt-gpu/CDPM.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

TextMatch: Enhancing Image-Text Consistency Through Multimodal Optimization

Text-to-image generative models excel in creating images from text but struggle with ensuring alignment and consistency between outputs and prompts. This paper introduces TextMatch, a novel framework that leverages multimodal optimization to address image-text discrepancies in text-to-image (T2I) generation and editing. TextMatch employs a scoring strategy powered by large language models (LLMs) and visual question-answering (VQA) models to evaluate semantic consistency between prompts and generated images. By integrating multimodal in-context learning and chain of thought reasoning, our method dynamically refines prompts through iterative optimization. This process ensures that the generated images better capture user intent of, resulting in higher fidelity and relevance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TextMatch significantly improves text-image consistency across multiple benchmarks, establishing a reliable framework for advancing the capabilities of text-to-image generative models. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TextMatch-F55C/.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Cross-Domain Pre-training with Language Models for Transferable Time Series Representations

Advancements in self-supervised pre-training (SSL) have significantly advanced the field of learning transferable time series representations, which can be very useful in enhancing the downstream task. Despite being effective, most existing works struggle to achieve cross-domain SSL pre-training, missing valuable opportunities to integrate patterns and features from different domains. The main challenge lies in the significant differences in the characteristics of time-series data across different domains, such as variations in the number of channels and temporal resolution scales. To address this challenge, we propose CrossTimeNet, a novel cross-domain SSL learning framework to learn transferable knowledge from various domains to largely benefit the target downstream task. One of the key characteristics of CrossTimeNet is the newly designed time series tokenization module, which could effectively convert the raw time series into a sequence of discrete tokens based on a reconstruction optimization process. Besides, we highlight that predicting a high proportion of corrupted tokens can be very helpful for extracting informative patterns across different domains during SSL pre-training, which has been largely overlooked in past years. Furthermore, unlike previous works, our work treats the pre-training language model (PLM) as the initialization of the encoder network, investigating the feasibility of transferring the knowledge learned by the PLM to the time series area. Through these efforts, the path to cross-domain pre-training of a generic time series model can be effectively paved. We conduct extensive experiments in a real-world scenario across various time series classification domains. The experimental results clearly confirm CrossTimeNet's superior performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning

The ability to incrementally learn new classes is crucial to the development of real-world artificial intelligence systems. In this paper, we focus on a challenging but practical few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL) problem. FSCIL requires CNN models to incrementally learn new classes from very few labelled samples, without forgetting the previously learned ones. To address this problem, we represent the knowledge using a neural gas (NG) network, which can learn and preserve the topology of the feature manifold formed by different classes. On this basis, we propose the TOpology-Preserving knowledge InCrementer (TOPIC) framework. TOPIC mitigates the forgetting of the old classes by stabilizing NG's topology and improves the representation learning for few-shot new classes by growing and adapting NG to new training samples. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art class-incremental learning methods on CIFAR100, miniImageNet, and CUB200 datasets.

cs.CV↗