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Xinwei Deng

Publications and source records attributed to Xinwei Deng.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Collaborative Spatial Learning with Multi-LLM Agents in Networked Social Experiments

Collective problem solving often requires that group members consider the tradeoff between exploitation of known solutions and exploration for new ones, where information of known solutions can be disseminated among individual members through communication networks. The Mason--Watts experiment (PNAS 2012) showed that human groups in shorter-path networks outperform those in longer-path networks on a two-dimensional search task. In this work, we focus on the investigation of such network-efficiency effects in the setting of a group of large language model (LLM) agents. Specifically, we consider groups of sixteen LLM agents playing the Mason--Watts experiment on the eight Mason--Watts network topologies. Moreover, we develop mechanistic Bayesian optimization agents such that the performance of LLM agents can be compared with both the mechanistic agents and the human experimental data. Our computational experiments indicate that the LLM agents show a significant network-efficiency effect when instructed to randomize their first-round choices, but not under the default initialization. In this experiment, adding a one-sentence first-round randomization instruction improves collective payoff by more than three times the estimated payoff difference across the eight network topologies. Also, the Bayesian optimization agents obtain higher payoffs than the evaluated LLM agents on this spatial search task. We further compare the agents' exploration--exploitation behavior, copying, and spatial diversity.

cs.AI

An Experimental Design Approach to Evaluating Agentic AI's Autonomous Model Discovery

Large language model coding agents increasingly perform open-ended data modeling and analysis. These agents are stochastic and adaptive, and therefore their autonomous model discovery behavior cannot be adequately characterized by a single benchmark run. In this work, we propose an experimental design and analysis framework for systematically evaluating this discovery process, quantifying its variability, and identifying important factors. The proposed framework treats these agents as stochastic model-discovery operators, which map task-specific discovery data and an optimization target to a fitted model. Specifically, we investigate two such operators, Codex and Claude Code, under controlled experimental factors including agent's reasoning effort, task, optimization metric, and composition of training data. For each agent-task-metric combination, regression models and inference are conducted for multiple responses such as output quality, dollar cost, wall-clock time, and process complexity. Furthermore, we develop a utility-aligned canonical decomposition to characterize the dominant direction of the reasoning-effort effect and to assess whether that direction aligns with a performance-cost utility direction. The proposed framework is demonstrated on a testbed of networked word-forming games with insightful findings on reasoning effort with respect to cost and process complexity.

stat.ME

TCARD: Nearly Balanced Two-Level Designs with Treatment Cardinality Constraints with an Application to LLM Prompt Engineering

Modern experimental designs often face the so-called treatment cardinality constraint, which is the constraint on the number of included factors in each treatment. Experiments with such constraints are commonly encountered in engineering simulation, AI system tuning, and large-scale system verification. This calls for the development of adequate designs to enable statistical efficiency for modeling and analysis within feasible constraints. In this work, we study two-level designs under this $k$-treatment cardinality constraint (TCARD), where the design matrix $\mathbf{X} \in \{0,1\}^{n \times p}$ has constant row sums equal to $k$. Although TCARDs are closely related to balanced incomplete block designs (BIBDs), exact BIBD structure is unavailable for many practical $(n,p,k)$ combinations. This leads to the notion of nearly balanced TCARDs, which we prove minimize the first two components of the generalized word-length pattern. We also show that good projection behavior in this setting is governed by two count-based regularities: balanced factor replications and uniform pairwise concurrences. Motivated by this characterization, we then propose the Balanced Concurrence Deviation ($\Phi_{\mathrm{BCD}}$), a model-free objective that jointly penalizes replication imbalance and concurrence dispersion. We further show that this criterion is closely connected to classical optimality principles, including $(M,S)$-optimality, centered $\mathrm{UE}(s^2)$ criterion, and Bayesian $D$-optimality. To construct designs minimizing $\Phi_{\mathrm{BCD}}$, we develop a coordinate-exchange (CE) algorithm with efficient incremental updates, together with a simulation-based procedure for calibrating the criterion weights to the intended downstream task. Numerical experiments confirm that the proposed method compares favorably with existing alternatives across a range of problem sizes and constraint strengths.

stat.ME

Adaptive Bi-Level Variable Selection of Conditional Main Effects for Generalized Linear Models

Understanding interaction effects among variables is important for regression modeling in various applications. The conventional approach of quantifying interactions as the product of variables often lacks clear interpretability, especially in complex systems. The concept of conditional main effects (CME) provides a more intuitive and interpretable framework for capturing interaction effects by quantifying the effect of one variable conditional on the level of another. A recent method called cmenet further considered the bi-level selection of CMEs by leveraging their natural grouping structure (e.g., sibling and cousin groups) through penalization. However, there are several limitations in the cmenet method, including the coupling ability of penalties for within-group CMEs, lack of adaptiveness for between-group penalties, and restriction to linear models with continuous responses. To overcome these limitations, we propose an adaptive cmenet method for CME selection under the generalized linear model (GLM) framework. The proposed method considers a penalized likelihood approach with adaptive weights to enable effective bi-level variable selection, improving both between-group and within-group selection. An efficient algorithm for parameter estimation is also developed by employing an iteratively reweighted least squares procedure. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by both simulation studies and real-data studies in gene association analysis.

stat.ME

Prediction of Hospital Associated Infections During Continuous Hospital Stays

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in 2019, designated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) as a serious antimicrobial resistance threat. The risk of acquiring MRSA and suffering life-threatening consequences due to it remains especially high for hospitalized patients due to a unique combination of factors, including: co-morbid conditions, immuno suppression, antibiotic use, and risk of contact with contaminated hospital workers and equipment. In this paper, we present a novel generative probabilistic model, GenHAI, for modeling sequences of MRSA test results outcomes for patients during a single hospitalization. This model can be used to answer many important questions from the perspectives of hospital administrators for mitigating the risk of MRSA infections. Our model is based on the probabilistic programming paradigm, and can be used to approximately answer a variety of predictive, causal, and counterfactual questions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model by comparing it against discriminative and generative machine learning models using two real-world datasets.

cs.LG

The Use of Variational Inference for Lifetime Data with Spatial Correlations

Lifetime data with spatial correlations are often collected for analysis in modern engineering, clinical, and medical applications. For such spatial lifetime data, statistical models usually account for the spatial dependence through spatial random effects, such as the cumulative exposure model and the proportional hazards model. For these models, the Bayesian estimation is commonly used for model inference, but often encounters computational challenges when the number of spatial locations is large. The conventional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling the posterior can be time-consuming. In this case-study paper, we investigate the capability of variational inference (VI) for the model inference on spatial lifetime data, aiming for a good balance between the estimation accuracy and computational efficiency. Specifically, the VI methods with different divergence metrics are investigated for the spatial lifetime models. In the case study, the Titan GPU lifetime data and the pine tree lifetime data are used to examine the VI methods in terms of their computational advantage and estimation accuracy.

stat.ME

Design of Experiments for Emulations: A Selective Review from a Modeling Perspective

Space-filling designs are crucial for efficient computer experiments, enabling accurate surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification in many scientific and engineering applications, such as digital twin systems and cyber-physical systems. In this work, we will provide a comprehensive review on key design methodologies, including Maximin/miniMax designs, Latin hypercubes, and projection-based designs. Moreover, we will connect the space-filling design criteria like the fill distance to Gaussian process performance. Numerical studies are conducted to investigate the practical trade-offs among various design types, with the discussion on emerging challenges in high-dimensional and constrained settings. The paper concludes with future directions in adaptive sampling and machine learning integration, providing guidance for improving computational experiments.

stat.ME

Active Learning of Computer Experiment with both Quantitative and Qualitative Inputs

Computer experiments refer to the study of real systems using complex simulation models. They have been widely used as alternatives to physical experiments. Design and analysis of computer experiments have attracted great attention in past three decades. The bulk of the work, however, often focus on experiments with only quantitative inputs. In recent years, research on design and analysis for computer experiments have gain momentum. Statistical methodology for design, modeling and inference of such experiments have been developed. In this chapter, we review some of those key developments, and propose active learning approaches for modeling, optimization, contour estimation of computer experiments with both types of inputs. Numerical studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods in comparison with other existing methods.

stat.ME

Weighted Average Ensemble for Cholesky-based Covariance Matrix Estimation

The modified Cholesky decomposition (MCD) is an efficient technique for estimating a covariance matrix. However, it is known that the MCD technique often requires a pre-specified variable ordering in the estimation procedure. In this work, we propose a weighted average ensemble covariance estimation for high-dimensional data based on the MCD technique. It can flexibly accommodate the high-dimensional case and ensure the positive definiteness property of the resultant estimate. Our key idea is to obtain different weights for different candidate estimates by minimizing an appropriate risk function with respect to the Frobenius norm. Different from the existing ensemble estimation based on the MCD, the proposed method provides a sparse weighting scheme such that one can distinguish which variable orderings employed in the MCD are useful for the ensemble matrix estimate. The asymptotically theoretical convergence rate of the proposed ensemble estimate is established under regularity conditions. The merits of the proposed method are examined by the simulation studies and a portfolio allocation example of real stock data.

stat.ME

FAIR: Facilitating Artificial Intelligence Resilience in Manufacturing Industrial Internet

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems have been increasingly adopted in the Manufacturing Industrial Internet (MII). Investigating and enabling the AI resilience is very important to alleviate profound impact of AI system failures in manufacturing and Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) operations, leading to critical decision making. However, there is a wide knowledge gap in defining the resilience of AI systems and analyzing potential root causes and corresponding mitigation strategies. In this work, we propose a novel framework for investigating the resilience of AI performance over time under hazard factors in data quality, AI pipelines, and the cyber-physical layer. The proposed method can facilitate effective diagnosis and mitigation strategies to recover AI performance based on a multimodal multi-head self latent attention model. The merits of the proposed method are elaborated using an MII testbed of connected Aerosol Jet Printing (AJP) machines, fog nodes, and Cloud with inference tasks via AI pipelines.

cs.AI

A Multifacet Hierarchical Sentiment-Topic Model with Application to Multi-Brand Online Review Analysis

Multi-brand analysis based on review comments and ratings is a commonly used strategy to compare different brands in marketing. It can help consumers make more informed decisions and help marketers understand their brand's position in the market. In this work, we propose a multifacet hierarchical sentiment-topic model (MH-STM) to detect brand-associated sentiment polarities towards multiple comparative aspects from online customer reviews. The proposed method is built on a unified generative framework that explains review words with a hierarchical brand-associated topic model and the overall polarity score with a regression model on the empirical topic distribution. Moreover, a novel hierarchical Polya urn (HPU) scheme is proposed to enhance the topic-word association among topic hierarchy, such that the general topics shared by all brands are separated effectively from the unique topics specific to individual brands. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic data and two real-world review corpora. Experimental studies demonstrate that the proposed method can be effective in detecting reasonable topic hierarchy and deriving accurate brand-associated rankings on multi-aspects.

cs.IR

StatLLM: A Dataset for Evaluating the Performance of Large Language Models in Statistical Analysis

The coding capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have opened up new opportunities for automatic statistical analysis in machine learning and data science. However, before their widespread adoption, it is crucial to assess the accuracy of code generated by LLMs. A major challenge in this evaluation lies in the absence of a benchmark dataset for statistical code (e.g., SAS and R). To fill in this gap, this paper introduces StatLLM, an open-source dataset for evaluating the performance of LLMs in statistical analysis. The StatLLM dataset comprises three key components: statistical analysis tasks, LLM-generated SAS code, and human evaluation scores. The first component includes statistical analysis tasks spanning a variety of analyses and datasets, providing problem descriptions, dataset details, and human-verified SAS code. The second component features SAS code generated by ChatGPT 3.5, ChatGPT 4.0, and Llama 3.1 for those tasks. The third component contains evaluation scores from human experts in assessing the correctness, effectiveness, readability, executability, and output accuracy of the LLM-generated code. We also illustrate the unique potential of the established benchmark dataset for (1) evaluating and enhancing natural language processing metrics, (2) assessing and improving LLM performance in statistical coding, and (3) developing and testing of next-generation statistical software - advancements that are crucial for data science and machine learning research.

stat.AP

Performance Evaluation of Large Language Models in Statistical Programming

The programming capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized automatic code generation and opened new avenues for automatic statistical analysis. However, the validity and quality of these generated codes need to be systematically evaluated before they can be widely adopted. Despite their growing prominence, a comprehensive evaluation of statistical code generated by LLMs remains scarce in the literature. In this paper, we assess the performance of LLMs, including two versions of ChatGPT and one version of Llama, in the domain of SAS programming for statistical analysis. Our study utilizes a set of statistical analysis tasks encompassing diverse statistical topics and datasets. Each task includes a problem description, dataset information, and human-verified SAS code. We conduct a comprehensive assessment of the quality of SAS code generated by LLMs through human expert evaluation based on correctness, effectiveness, readability, executability, and the accuracy of output results. The analysis of rating scores reveals that while LLMs demonstrate usefulness in generating syntactically correct code, they struggle with tasks requiring deep domain understanding and may produce redundant or incorrect results. This study offers valuable insights into the capabilities and limitations of LLMs in statistical programming, providing guidance for future advancements in AI-assisted coding systems for statistical analysis.

stat.AP

Bridging the Data Gap in AI Reliability Research and Establishing DR-AIR, a Comprehensive Data Repository for AI Reliability

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology and systems have been advancing rapidly. However, ensuring the reliability of these systems is crucial for fostering public confidence in their use. This necessitates the modeling and analysis of reliability data specific to AI systems. A major challenge in AI reliability research, particularly for those in academia, is the lack of readily available AI reliability data. To address this gap, this paper focuses on conducting a comprehensive review of available AI reliability data and establishing DR-AIR: a data repository for AI reliability. Specifically, we introduce key measurements and data types for assessing AI reliability, along with the methodologies used to collect these data. We also provide a detailed description of the currently available datasets with illustrative examples. Furthermore, we outline the setup of the DR-AIR repository and demonstrate its practical applications. This repository provides easy access to datasets specifically curated for AI reliability research. We believe these efforts will significantly benefit the AI research community by facilitating access to valuable reliability data and promoting collaboration across various academic domains within AI. We conclude our paper with a call to action, encouraging the research community to contribute and share AI reliability data to further advance this critical field of study.

stat.AP

Collaborative Design of Controlled Experiments in the Presence of Subject Covariates

We consider the optimal experimental design problem of allocating subjects to treatment or control when subjects participate in multiple, separate controlled experiments within a short time-frame and subject covariate information is available. Here, in addition to subject covariates, we consider the dependence among the responses coming from the subject's random effect across experiments. In this setting, the goal of the allocation is to provide precise estimates of treatment effects for each experiment. Deriving the precision matrix of the treatment effects and using D-optimality as our allocation criterion, we demonstrate the advantage of collaboratively designing and analyzing multiple experiments over traditional independent design and analysis, and propose two randomized algorithms to provide solutions to the D-optimality problem for collaborative design. The first algorithm decomposes the D-optimality problem into a sequence of subproblems, where each subproblem is a quadratic binary program that can be solved through a semi-definite relaxation based randomized algorithm with performance guarantees. The second algorithm involves solving a single semi-definite program, and randomly generating allocations for each experiment from the solution of this program. We showcase the performance of these algorithms through a simulation study, finding that our algorithms outperform covariate-agnostic methods when there are a large number of covariates.

stat.ME

Applied Statistics in the Era of Artificial Intelligence: A Review and Vision

The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies has significantly changed many domains, including applied statistics. This review and vision paper explores the evolving role of applied statistics in the AI era, drawing from our experiences in engineering statistics. We begin by outlining the fundamental concepts and historical developments in applied statistics and tracing the rise of AI technologies. Subsequently, we review traditional areas of applied statistics, using examples from engineering statistics to illustrate key points. We then explore emerging areas in applied statistics, driven by recent technological advancements, highlighting examples from our recent projects. The paper discusses the symbiotic relationship between AI and applied statistics, focusing on how statistical principles can be employed to study the properties of AI models and enhance AI systems. We also examine how AI can advance applied statistics in terms of modeling and analysis. In conclusion, we reflect on the future role of statisticians. Our paper aims to shed light on the transformative impact of AI on applied statistics and inspire further exploration in this dynamic field.

stat.AP

Collaborative Analysis for Paired A/B Testing Experiments

With the extensive use of digital devices, online experimental platforms are commonly used to conduct experiments to collect data for evaluating different variations of products, algorithms, and interface designs, a.k.a., A/B tests. In practice, multiple A/B testing experiments are often carried out based on a common user population on the same platform. The same user's responses to different experiments can be correlated to some extent due to the individual effect of the user. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that collaboratively analyzes the data from paired A/B tests, namely, a pair of A/B testing experiments conducted on the same set of experimental subjects. The proposed analysis approach for paired A/B tests can lead to more accurate estimates than the traditional separate analysis of each experiment. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimators and demonstrate that the proposed estimators are asymptotically the best linear unbiased estimators under certain assumptions. Moreover, the proposed analysis approach is computationally efficient, easy to implement, and robust to different types of responses. Both numerical simulations and numerical studies based on a real case are used to examine the performance of the proposed method.

stat.ME

Distribution-in-distribution-out Regression

Regression analysis with probability measures as input predictors and output response has recently drawn great attention. However, it is challenging to handle multiple input probability measures due to the non-flat Riemannian geometry of the Wasserstein space, hindering the definition of arithmetic operations, hence additive linear structure is not well-defined. In this work, a distribution-in-distribution-out regression model is proposed by introducing parallel transport to achieve provable commutativity and additivity of newly defined arithmetic operations in Wasserstein space. The appealing properties of the DIDO regression model can serve a foundation for model estimation, prediction, and inference. Specifically, the Fréchet least squares estimator is employed to obtain the best linear unbiased estimate, supported by the newly established Fréchet Gauss-Markov Theorem. Furthermore, we investigate a special case when predictors and response are all univariate Gaussian measures, leading to a simple close-form solution of linear model coefficients and $R^2$ metric. A simulation study and real case study in intraoperative cardiac output prediction are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.

stat.ME