arXiv subjects

Xuejian Shen

Publications and source records attributed to Xuejian Shen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Halo assembly bias in the early Universe: a clustering probe of the origin of the Little Red Dots

The clustering of galaxies encodes key information about the structure and assembly history of their host dark matter (DM) haloes, providing a powerful probe of the origin of extreme high-redshift systems. While halo assembly bias has been extensively studied at low redshift, its behavior in the early Universe remains poorly explored. Using the large-volume, high-resolution Shin-Uchuu cosmological $N$-body simulation, we characterize halo assembly bias associated with formation time, concentration, and angular momentum across a wide range of halo masses and redshifts. We find that the sign and amplitude of assembly bias depend on halo mass for both concentration and spin. High-concentration and low-spin haloes are more strongly clustered below characteristic peak heights of $ν\sim 1.5$ and $\sim 0.75$, respectively, while the trends weaken or reverse at higher masses. Halo age bias persists at all redshifts but decreases toward higher masses and earlier cosmic times. We apply these results to assess whether clustering can distinguish competing formation scenarios for the Little Red Dots (LRDs). We find that the direct-collapse-black-hole (DCBH) scenario predicts the strongest large-scale bias and enhanced pair fractions, the self-interacting-dark-matter (SIDM) core-collapse scenario and low-spin compact-galaxy scenarios yield weaker clustering due to lower characteristic halo masses and spin-related secondary bias, and a primordial-black-hole (PBH) scenario predicts unbiased clustering. Our results demonstrate that halo assembly bias and characteristic host masses provide powerful diagnostics for constraining the physical origin of LRDs, offering testable predictions for upcoming clustering measurements with JWST and future deep surveys.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Weighing Little Red Dots with Transient Events

Recent JWST observations have revealed a large population of compact red sources at $z \gtrsim 4$, known as Little Red Dots (LRDs), many of which show signatures of accreting massive black holes (BHs). The physical nature of these sources and their connection to host galaxies are under debate. We propose an independent avenue for constraining their nature through transient phenomena, such as tidal disruption events (TDEs) and quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs), arising from interactions between a star and the gas envelope surrounding the BH. These event rates depend sensitively on BH mass and provide a way to "weigh" LRDs. We calculate the expected TDE and QPE rates in LRDs under three distinct scenarios: (1) LRDs are truly overmassive BHs, (2) LRDs have BH masses following the classical local scaling relations (and the reported BH masses in observations are overestimated), and (3) the currently observed LRDs are only the tip of the iceberg of a larger population of low-mass BHs. We find that the predicted TDE and QPE rates differ dramatically across scenarios, especially in the presence of steep stellar cusps. The expected TDE rates per degree-square, assuming a Hernquist stellar distribution with a Bahcall-Wolf cusp embedded, are $2.78 \times 10^{-3}$, $1.96 \times 10^{-3}$, and $3.37 \times 10^{-2} \, {\rm yr}^{-1} \, {\rm deg}^{-2}$ for the three scenarios, respectively, while the QPE rates are $1.64 \times 10^{-2}$, $4.72 \times 10^{-2}$, and $4.96 \times 10^{-1} \, {\rm yr}^{-1} \, {\rm deg}^{-2}$. Upcoming wide-field surveys with Euclid, Roman, and LSST may be capable of detecting these high-redshift transient events and obtaining light curves, which encode additional information about the BH mass and the gas structure of LRDs. Stellar transient events will provide valuable insight into the early assembly of massive BHs.

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arXiv2026

The THESAN-ZOOM project: clumpiness of high-redshift galaxies and its connection to bursty star formation

Recent JWST observations have revealed diverse high-redshift galaxy morphologies, including a population with irregular and clumpy structures. The physical origin of these structures, and the extent to which observational biases shape their appearance, remain uncertain. We present a power-spectrum-based method for quantifying galaxy clumpiness across spatial scales, using the radiation-hydrodynamic simulation suite THESAN-ZOOM, which employs a state-of-the-art galaxy formation model that resolves the multiphase interstellar medium (ISM). Although the total stellar mass distributions in THESAN-ZOOM galaxies are usually smooth, clumpy structures appear in the H$α$, far-ultraviolet (FUV), and optical light distributions. Tracers sensitive to shorter-timescale star formation exhibit more pronounced small-scale structure ($\sim10^{2}$--$10^{3}{\rm pc}$). The corresponding projected light spectra follow $P(k)\propto k^{-1}$ to $k^{-2}$, with progressively shallower slopes for tracers sensitive to more recent star formation, reflecting enhanced small-scale power and greater spatial intermittency in young stellar populations. This behaviour is consistent with a highly compressible, shock-dominated ISM in which stellar feedback and outflows reorganise dense gas into filamentary and clumpy structures. We also find that galaxy clumpiness depends on the treatment of stellar feedback. Weaker early stellar feedback enhances small-scale power in both the mass and light distributions. Clumpiness also varies strongly over the bursty star formation cycle, implying that observed samples may be biased towards galaxies caught in phases of elevated star formation. Galaxy clumpiness, therefore, could provide a complementary probe of the bursty star formation in the early Universe.

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arXiv2026

Introducing the Lumina project: large-volume radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of the epochs of hydrogen and helium reionization

Understanding how galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGN) jointly drive the reionization of the intergalactic medium (IGM) across cosmic time remains a major challenge in cosmology. We present Lumina, a large-volume radiation-hydrodynamic simulation that self-consistently follows the coupled evolution of the intergalactic medium, galaxies, and AGN through HI, HeI, and HeII reionization down to redshift $z=3$. Lumina evolves a cosmological volume of comoving side length $L_{\mathrm{box}}=500\,\mathrm{cMpc}$ with $2\times 6000^{3}$ resolution elements, corresponding to baryonic and dark-matter mass resolutions of $3.6\times 10^{6}\,\text{M}_{\odot}$ and $1.9\times 10^{7}\,\text{M}_{\odot}$, respectively. The simulation uses the moving-mesh code AREPO, combining the IllustrisTNG galaxy-formation model with a GPU-accelerated M1 radiation-transport solver in six frequency bins. The initial conditions employ separate transfer functions for baryons and dark matter and include their relative streaming velocity. Lumina predicts a late, predominantly stellar-driven hydrogen reionization, with the median sub-volume fully ionized by $z\approx 5.2$ and residual neutral HI patches persisting until $z\approx 4.75$. HeII reionization is driven self-consistently by AGN and is nearly complete by $z=3$. The simulation yields a Thomson-scattering optical depth in excellent agreement with Planck, an IGM thermal history and photoionization background broadly consistent with observational constraints, and a clear late-time thermal boost associated with HeII reionization. Its galaxy population remains consistent with the original IllustrisTNG project, while the larger volume improves statistics for rare objects, large-scale environments, and cosmic variance, enabling forward modelling of observables linking HI and HeII topologies to the evolving galaxy and AGN populations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Massive Black Holes Seeded by Dark Matter -- Implications for Little Red Dots and Gravitational Wave Signatures

Observations of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at high redshifts challenge standard seeding scenarios. We examine a dissipative self-interacting dark matter (dSIDM) model in which gravothermal collapse leads to the formation of massive BH seeds ab initio. We utilize a semi-analytical framework to predict properties of the dSIDM-seeded SMBH population. Billion solar mass quasars are reproduced along with low-mass faint active galactic nuclei (known as little red dots) with SMBH-to-galaxy stellar mass ratios consistent with recent James Webb Space Telescope observations. To match the abundance of the observed bright quasars, a percent-level duty-cycle is suggested, implying a large population of dormant SMBHs. The gravitational wave (GW) signals from mergers of these massive SMBHs can be detected by LISA while remaining within the NANOGrav constraints on the GW background. These results provide testable signatures of DM-driven SMBH formation, offering a pathway to probe hidden-sector physics through SMBH and GW observables.

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arXiv2026

What becomes of JWST/NIRCam-selected high-redshift massive galaxies?

Early JWST/NIRCam surveys revealed a puzzling population of high-redshift massive galaxy candidates largely absent from previous rest-frame UV surveys. Spectroscopic follow-up has both confirmed and contested these candidates, whose potential overabundance may challenge traditional models of galaxy formation. In this study we evaluate the reliability of the photometric selections used to identify these candidates in observational data by applying them to galaxies in the TNG300 simulation with synthetic dust-attenuated photometry. Among the five observational selection criteria considered, we find that the selection presented by Pérez-González et al. is the most reliable and inclusive. Nevertheless, only 1 of the 18 galaxies at $z\sim5$ with $M_{\star} \geq 10^{11}~\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ in the simulation satisfies this selection; the remaining 17 galaxies are on average $\sim0.5$ mag bluer than the color selection under the adopted dust model. We construct an improved JWST/NIRCam color-magnitude selection that provides a more complete census of massive galaxies at $z\sim5$ in TNG300 while excluding dusty, low-mass galaxies identified by criteria from the observational literature. We investigate the descendants of the most massive NIRCam-selected galaxies at $z=7,~4,$ and $2$ in TNG300, finding that they rarely evolve into the most massive galaxies by $z=0$. In general only the high-redshift massive galaxies that undergo substantial late-time ($z\lesssim0.2$) merger-driven growth become the most massive galaxies in the Universe today. Together these results suggest that current observational JWST/NIRCam selections are not identifying the most massive high-redshift galaxies, and caution against interpreting high-redshift massive galaxies as direct progenitors of the most massive galaxies at $z=0$.

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arXiv2026

The Thesan-Zoom project: bursty star formation is incompatible with prolonged dust survival

Cosmic dust is a key regulator of galaxy evolution, but its build-up and survival in the first billion years remain poorly constrained. We present a systematic analysis of dust in the thesan-zoom suite of radiation-hydrodynamical zoom-in simulations, which self-consistently model dust formation, growth, destruction, and its coupling to radiative transfer in galaxies at $z \geq 3$, a multi-phase ISM and bursty star formation histories. The simulated galaxies reproduce the observed trends of dust-to-gas and dust-to-metal ratios with gas metallicity, while showing a dust deficit at high specific star-formation rates. They also broadly match observed dust temperatures and UV-IR spatial offsets. We find that dust and its properties are strongly time-variable and tightly linked to bursty star formation, with short-lived IR-bright phases (median duration of $20.3^{+2.3}_{-2.4}$ Myr) and longer dust-poor phases, naturally producing a correlation between dust temperature and distance from the star-forming main sequence. The predicted attenuation at $1500$ Å is low compared to observations, even when including unresolved dust through post processing, indicating that a mechanism able to shield dust from strong feedback events is necessary to reconcile our galaxy formation model with observations. In our model, bursty star formation prevents the survival of large dust reservoirs ($M_{dust} / M_{star} \geq 10^{-3}$) over a significant fraction of cosmic time. This implies that bursty star formation can produce the observed overabundance of UV-bright galaxies at $z \geq 10$ only if it rapidly settles down by $z \sim 8$ (where large dust reservoirs are detected). It is also possible that our models lack physical ingredients or emergent phenomena that aid the survival of dust. Future observations of high-redshift dust will be key to diagnose the physical mechanism at play in the first galaxies.

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arXiv2026

A Novel Implementation of Self-Interacting Dark Matter in AREPO

Self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) influences halo structure through collisional heat transport and may solve several small-scale puzzles in structure formation. SIDM creates thermalized cores in low-mass haloes, which may account for the observed cored dwarf galaxies. During late-time gravothermal core collapse, SIDM can produce dense low-mass DM haloes and substructures detected through perturbations to cold stellar streams and strong gravitational lenses. In this work, we present a new Monte-Carlo SIDM implementation in the moving-mesh code AREPO-2, designed for efficiency, scalability, and extensibility. The central feature of the implementation is a dedicated DM-only neighbour-search tree that decouples the scattering solver from gravity. This preserves compatibility with the hierarchical time integration used by AREPO-2 while leaving the optimized gravity solver unconstrained. A pairwise communication scheme between MPI tasks allows tracking multiple scattering events in a single timestep while conserving momentum and energy and maintaining parallel consistency by construction. This is complemented by a per-pair timestep criterion that significantly reduces unnecessary timestep restrictions. The implementation natively supports velocity-dependent cross-sections and inelastic interactions, while a compact interface is designed for additional SIDM physics to be implemented without knowledge of the parallelization layer. We validate the implementation for isotropic, elastic scattering using a suite of idealized and cosmological tests. We assess performance and scalability in isolated core-collapse simulations and in cosmological boxes, both DM-only and with baryons. Except during the late stages of gravothermal collapse, SIDM simulations incur only modest overhead relative to the corresponding CDM runs and are substantially faster than the previous SIDM implementation in AREPO-1.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Globular cluster abundance patterns inherited from giant molecular clouds

Globular clusters exhibit large star-to-star variations and anticorrelations in their light element abundances that are commonly interpreted in terms of in-cluster self-enrichment, in which ejecta from early-forming cluster stars pollute the gas from which later stars form over millions of years. Yet proposed self-enrichment scenarios suffer from a severe mass-budget problem or invoke exotic stellar populations. Using cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulations with a standard chemical enrichment model, we identify a population of giant molecular clouds whose internal abundance patterns reproduce several key globular cluster signatures: large light-element abundance spreads and nitrogen-oxygen anticorrelations at nearly constant iron abundance. These clouds form at the restart of star-formation activity after an earlier starburst, where previously ejected oxygen-rich gas collides with nitrogen-rich galactic gas, and are sites of dense star-cluster formation. In this picture, the chemical abundance patterns of globular clusters need not require extended in-cluster star formation, but can be inherited at birth from chemically structured interstellar gas shaped by the baryon cycle. Globular clusters therefore provide a fossil record of chemical enrichment and gas flows in high-redshift galaxies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

A Universal Dance of Galactic Disks: Ubiquitous Precession and Its Implications

Precession is a very common phenomenon for small-scale astronomical objects. However, the precession of galactic disks, occurring on a scale larger than kilo-parsec, has barely been studied in the literature. Quantifying this precession in observations remains challenging due to the lack of high-resolution dynamical data. Cosmological simulations, where gravitational interactions are self-consistently modeled, offer a unique avenue for investigating disk precession. Leveraging the IllustrisTNG simulations, we trace the evolution of spin orientation in Milky Way-like galaxies over cosmic time. We find that disk precession is ubiquitous in galaxies and significantly affects galaxy evolution. The precession is driven by the external tidal torque originating from the anisotropic matter distribution within $30\ \mathrm{kpc}$, and is violent at $\mathrm{z} > 1$ and becomes gentler but significant at $\mathrm{z} \sim 0$, when the disks are considered dynamically settled. Disk precession can induce significant cold gas warp, which is often observed in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies. We predict that the Milky Way is precessing at a rate of $\simeq3-10$ degrees per billion years at current epoch based on its observed warp. Violent precession can heat the orbits of stars, which may eventually produce prolate elliptical galaxies. The tidal torque from central galaxies can cause the precession of nearby satellite galaxies and causes their disks to point towards the centrals, which explains the observational radial alignment. We also find that the precession of accreted cold gas stream, regulated by the galaxies' torque, is crucial for the evolution of disk galaxies.

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arXiv2026

The Lumina Project: Intergalactic Clumping and Recombination Sinks

Recombinations during the Epoch of Reionization are intrinsically inhomogeneous, with different regions of the intergalactic medium contributing unevenly depending on their density, temperature, ionization state, and spatial patchiness. We combine the high- and medium-resolution 95.5 cMpc Thesan-1 andh Thesan-2 runs with the significantly larger 500 cMpc Lumina simulation to measure clumping factors and recombination rates consistently across different resolutions and box sizes. We consider the standard ionized hydrogen clumping factor, $C_{\rm HII} \equiv \langle n_{\rm HII}^2\rangle/\langle n_{\rm HII}\rangle^2$, and a recombination-weighted clumping factor, $C_{\rm rec}$. Despite differences in resolution, volume, and reionization history, the simulations show an approximately universal clumping evolution at the 10-20% level when parametrized by the global ionized fraction $x_{\rm HII}$ rather than by redshift. Across all simulations, $C_{\rm rec}$ remains systematically below $C_{\rm HII}$, with the discrepancy increasing toward lower redshift as photoheating suppresses recombinations. In \lumina, the density-only prescription overpredicts the instantaneous recombination rate by factors of 1.29 at $z\approx8$ and 1.84 at $z\approx5$, and the cumulative recombination count by a factor of 1.45 by $z\approx5$. Mapping the recombination budget in the joint overdensity-temperature plane reveals that the dominant recombination ridges closely follow simple analytic thermal equilibrium bands. Finally, we introduce a phase-space recombination integral and define a phase-space clumping factor, $C_{\rm ps}(Δ,T)$, which isolates the intrinsic recombination enhancement associated with ionization structure and thermal state at fixed overdensity and temperature.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

From THESAN-ZOOM to JWST: Predicting ionizing photon escape and the rise of UV-bright reionization sources

Understanding the sources and evolution of cosmic reionization remains a central challenge in astrophysics, with the escape of ionizing Lyman-continuum (LyC) photons from early galaxies representing a major uncertainty. In this work, we use more than 35,000 galaxy realisations from the THESAN-ZOOM cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulations to identify indirect diagnostics of the LyC photon escape fraction ($f_\mathrm{esc}$) and the LyC photon escape rate ($\dot{N}_\mathrm{ion,esc}$) across the redshift range $z=3-16$. We train random forest regression models using these diagnostics to predict both quantities. We present four models: two trained with the full set of simulation-derived indicators to predict $f_\mathrm{esc}$ and $\dot{N}_\mathrm{ion,esc}$, and two restricted to observables accessible to JWST photometric surveys. We find the 10-to-100$\,$Myr star-formation rate ratio ($\mathrm{SFR}_{10} / \mathrm{SFR}_{100}$) and the gas-to-stellar mass ratio ($M_\mathrm{gas} / M_*$) to be the strongest diagnostics of $f_\mathrm{esc}$, suggesting a strong relationship between ionizing photon escape and gas clearing through bursty star formation. In contrast, rest-frame UV ($1500 \, Å$) absolute magnitude ($M_\mathrm{UV}$) dominates $\dot{N}_\mathrm{ion,esc}$ prediction. Motivated by the strong predictive power of $M_\mathrm{UV}$, we combine observed UV luminosity functions with derived $\dot{N}_\mathrm{ion,esc} - M_\mathrm{UV}$ relations to construct histories of reionization. These are consistent with observational constraints, avoiding the recently reported crisis in the ionizing photon budget. Our analysis suggests that the bulk of reionization occurred rapidly after $z \approx 8$, driven by UV-bright galaxies, with the $M_\mathrm{UV} < -17$ populations providing the dominant contribution.

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arXiv2026

Beyond the Brightest: A Deep Learning Approach to Identifying Major and Minor Galaxy Mergers in CANDELS at $z \sim 1$

Galaxy mergers play an important role in galaxy evolution. Therefore, accurate merger identifications are paramount for achieving a complete understanding of how galaxies evolve. As we enter the era of large, deep, high-resolution imaging surveys, we can observe mergers extending to even lower masses and higher redshifts. Despite low-mass galaxies being more common, many previous merger identification methods were calibrated for high-mass galaxies, which are easier to identify. To prepare for upcoming surveys, we train a convolutional neural network (CNN) using mock $\textit{HST}$ CANDELS images at $z\sim1$ created from the IllustrisTNG50 cosmological simulation. We successfully identify galaxy mergers between a wide range of galaxies ($10^8M_\odot < M_\star < 10^{12.5}M_\odot$, and $q\geq1:10$), achieving overall accuracy, purity, and completeness of $\sim65\%$. We show, for the first time, that a CNN trained on this diverse set of galaxies is capable of identifying major mergers, especially at early stages (74% accuracy), similar to that of networks trained at lower redshifts and/or higher masses (with accuracies between $66-80$%). We discuss the inherent limits of galaxy merger identification due to orientation angle, finding 98% of mergers are correctly identified from at least one angle, and 61% from the majority of angles. We additionally explore the confounding variables, such as star formation, to consider when applying to real data.This network enables the exploration of the impact of previously overlooked mergers of high mass ratio and low stellar masses on galaxy evolution in CANDELS, and can be expanded to surveys from $\textit{JWST}$, Rubin, $\textit{Roman}$, and $\textit{Euclid}$.

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arXiv2026

Mergers Matter: Gravothermal Collapse in Dwarf Halos with Self-Interacting Dark Matter

Self-Interacting Dark Matter (SIDM) models with large cross sections at relative velocities below $\sim100\,{\rm km \, s}^{-1}$ can be tested with dwarf galaxy observations. We analyze six dark-matter-only zoom-in $\sim10^{10}\,{\rm M}_\odot$ halos with diverse assembly histories, adopting a cross section over mass of $σ/m = 70\,cm^2 \, g^{-1}$. We find that mergers inject orbital kinetic energy into the halo, altering the heat transport and the gravothermal evolution of the core. Three of the six halos -- those with the most quiescent merger histories -- show clear signs of core collapse in these simulations. Halos with sustained mergers do not collapse. Furthermore, merger-induced heat transport drives two non-collapsing halos to central densities well below the predictions of the gravothermal fluid model. These findings suggest a novel mechanism for producing dark-matter-deficient galaxies and expanding the diversity of rotation curves beyond what halo concentration alone predicts. Merger histories are thus essential for understanding central density distributions of dwarf galaxy halos in SIDM.

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arXiv2026

A Consistent Implementation of Cluster Strong Lensing in Cosmological Simulation Light Cones

Galaxy cluster strong gravitational lensing plays a central role in precision cosmology, yet robust theoretical predictions have lagged behind an abundance of high-quality strong lensing observations. This shortfall reflects both a mismatch between the geometry of the strong-lensing problem and standard cubic simulation boxes, and the fundamental tension between simulation volume and resolution. Consequently, many current forecasts adopt hybrid approaches that extract individual lenses from simulations and combine them with analytic or observed source populations positioned near caustics. These methods often omit correlated and/or uncorrelated line-of-sight (LoS) structure, or include it in ways that do not preserve correlations across redshift. Here we present a fully simulation-based procedure that generates strong-lensing images directly from particle data, drawing the lens, source, and all intervening resolved objects self-consistently from the simulated large-scale structure. Our approach combines a structure-preserving remapping of the simulation volume into a lensing-appropriate geometry with multi-plane ray tracing, enabling the use of uniform simulation boxes that resolve both cluster-scale primary lenses and high-redshift source galaxies. We demonstrate the method by generating example light cones and images using IllustrisTNG data, then use these results to conservatively quantify the impact of LoS structure on image configurations and critical-curve morphology. We find that uncorrelated LoS structure can shift the relative positions of lensed images by several arcseconds, introduces a $\sim 6\%$ scatter in the area of a cluster's primary critical curve, and changes the total critical area within 100$^{\prime\prime}$ of the cluster potential minimum by $16^{+20\%}_{-14\%}$ at a source plane redshift of $z_s=4$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Resolving galaxy formation in the early Universe with BonFIRE and CampFIRE

The abundance and rapid growth of galaxies at cosmic dawn revealed by the James Webb Space Telescope challenges models of galaxy formation, motivating new simulations to uncover the processes driving early galaxy assembly. We present the first results from BonFIRE ($L\approx40$ cMpc, $m_{\rm baryon}\approx5\times10^4~\rm{M}_{\odot}$) and CampFIRE ($L\approx5$ cMpc, at both $m_{\rm baryon}\approx800~\rm{M}_{\odot}$ and $\approx6\times10^3~\rm{M}_{\odot}$), a suite of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations of early galaxy formation ($z\gtrsim6$) from the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project, using the FIRE-3 model. We use a resampling procedure to combine the large statistics of BonFIRE with the higher resolution of CampFIRE and robustly predict galaxy properties over a wide dynamic range ($M_{\star}\sim10^4-10^{10}~\rm{M}_{\odot}$). Galaxy formation in this suite emerges through clustered, bursty star formation, with halo-scale star formation efficiencies reaching $10-30\%$ in high-mass halos. A subset of low-mass halos also have surprisingly high efficiencies of $\gtrsim1\%$ and host ultra-compact galaxies with narrow age spreads. We predict galaxy UV luminosity functions at $9\lesssim~z\lesssim25$ in broad agreement with observations at $M_{\rm UV}\gtrsim-19$, with a faint-end turnover at $M_{\rm UV}\approx-14$, but we slightly overpredict the abundance of brighter galaxies. We find that UV luminosity variability in early galaxies is strongly mass-dependent, with halo-to-halo scatter dominating at low masses and contributing comparably to rapid temporal burstiness at $M_{\rm halo}\gtrsim10^{10}~\rm{M}_{\odot}$. We also present first results from a simple Pop~III model with a top-heavy IMF, demonstrating broad agreement with independent Pop~III predictions and observational constraints.

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arXiv2026

The Lumina Project: The Demographics of Active Galactic Nuclei from Quasars to Little Red Dots at $z\geq 3$

High-redshift active galactic nuclei (AGN) serve as powerful probes of early black-hole growth, galaxy formation, and the evolving intergalactic medium (IGM). In this work, we use Lumina, a cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulation spanning the epochs of hydrogen and helium reionization, which combines a large $(500\,{\rm cMpc})^3$ volume with $2\times 6000^3$ resolution elements, to explore high-redshift AGN. The simulation self-consistently follows hundreds of millions of galaxies and supermassive black holes (SMBHs), together with their impact on the ionization and thermal state of the IGM. We exploit this uniquely large dynamic range to predict multi-band AGN luminosity functions (LFs) at $z \geq 3$, from hard X-rays to the mid-infrared. These predictions encompass both moderately luminous quasars and the faint ``Little Red Dots'' (LRDs) uncovered by JWST. We develop an empirical model that maps simulated SMBHs onto observed AGN using bolometric and extinction/absorption corrections for canonical AGN and LRDs, and in which SMBHs with $M_{\rm BH}\leq 10\,M_{\rm seed} \sim 10^{7}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$ stay in the LRD phase with a duty cycle of $30\%$. This simple framework reproduces the observed LFs and clustering of LRDs. Meanwhile, the pre-JWST quasar LF constraints are recovered, although we find that a $\sim 0.3$ dex log-normal scatter in bolometric luminosity is required to reproduce the bright end. We place the simulated AGN population in the cosmological context by quantifying the redshift evolution of AGN and LRD number densities, and their contributions to the integrated BH mass densities. The same AGN population is the dominant driver for the HeII reionization modelled self-consistently in Lumina. This empirical AGN model paves the way for general population-synthesis models of high-redshift AGN, including LRDs, in a unified cosmological framework.

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arXiv2026

The Lumina Project: CMB Optical Depth Fluctuations from Patchy Reionization

Patchy reionization couples the ionized-bubble morphology to the underlying density field, making the CMB Thomson optical depth sensitive to both the global ionization history and anisotropic fluctuations on the sky. Using the large-volume radiation-hydrodynamical Lumina simulation, we compute $τ_{\rm CMB}$ in two ways: (i) from global volume- and mass-weighted ionization histories, and (ii) from explicit line-of-sight integrations through on-the-fly light cones. We find that the sightline-averaged optical depth in the light cone, $\langle τ_{\rm LOS} \rangle = 0.0550$, exceeds the value inferred from a global volume-weighted history, $τ_{{\rm CMB},V} = 0.0515$, by $\approx 7\%$. This enhancement is largely captured by the global mass-weighted prediction, $τ_{{\rm CMB},m} = 0.0544$, indicating that precision comparisons to CMB optical-depth constraints should use mass-weighted electron fractions or explicit light-cone integration rather than volume-weighted ionized fractions alone. The excess optical depth accumulates primarily near $z_{\rm LOS} = 8.0^{+1.9}_{-1.3}$, where the combination of high physical density and strong ionization-field patchiness is greatest. The resulting $τ_{\rm LOS}$ field is non-Gaussian and exhibits $\gtrsim 5\%$ sightline-to-sightline scatter, with fluctuations tracing rare early-ionized overdensities and large-scale structure. Coarse-graining experiments show that smoothing the ionization field on $\gtrsim 3 {\rm cMpc}$ scales suppresses the density-ionization correlation and biases $τ_{\rm CMB}$ low relative to the resolved calculation. Finally, angular power spectra and real-space correlation functions decomposed into HII, HeII, and HeIII auto- and cross-contributions reveal scale-dependent departures from simple hydrogen-helium co-tracing and evolving characteristic scales with redshift.

astro-ph.CO↗