arXiv subjects

Xuejian Shen

Publications and source records attributed to Xuejian Shen.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Resolving galaxy formation in the early Universe with BonFIRE and CampFIRE

The abundance and rapid growth of galaxies at cosmic dawn revealed by the James Webb Space Telescope challenges models of galaxy formation, motivating new simulations to uncover the processes driving early galaxy assembly. We present the first results from BonFIRE ($L\approx40$ cMpc, $m_{\rm baryon}\approx5\times10^4~\rm{M}_{\odot}$) and CampFIRE ($L\approx5$ cMpc, at both $m_{\rm baryon}\approx800~\rm{M}_{\odot}$ and $\approx6\times10^3~\rm{M}_{\odot}$), a suite of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations of early galaxy formation ($z\gtrsim6$) from the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project, using the FIRE-3 model. We use a resampling procedure to combine the large statistics of BonFIRE with the higher resolution of CampFIRE and robustly predict galaxy properties over a wide dynamic range ($M_{\star}\sim10^4-10^{10}~\rm{M}_{\odot}$). Galaxy formation in this suite emerges through clustered, bursty star formation, with halo-scale star formation efficiencies reaching $10-30\%$ in high-mass halos. A subset of low-mass halos also have surprisingly high efficiencies of $\gtrsim1\%$ and host ultra-compact galaxies with narrow age spreads. We predict galaxy UV luminosity functions at $9\lesssim~z\lesssim25$ in broad agreement with observations at $M_{\rm UV}\gtrsim-19$, with a faint-end turnover at $M_{\rm UV}\approx-14$, but we slightly overpredict the abundance of brighter galaxies. We find that UV luminosity variability in early galaxies is strongly mass-dependent, with halo-to-halo scatter dominating at low masses and contributing comparably to rapid temporal burstiness at $M_{\rm halo}\gtrsim10^{10}~\rm{M}_{\odot}$. We also present first results from a simple Pop~III model with a top-heavy IMF, demonstrating broad agreement with independent Pop~III predictions and observational constraints.

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arXiv2026

The Lumina Project: The Demographics of Active Galactic Nuclei from Quasars to Little Red Dots at $z\geq 3$

High-redshift active galactic nuclei (AGN) serve as powerful probes of early black-hole growth, galaxy formation, and the evolving intergalactic medium (IGM). In this work, we use Lumina, a cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulation spanning the epochs of hydrogen and helium reionization, which combines a large $(500\,{\rm cMpc})^3$ volume with $2\times 6000^3$ resolution elements, to explore high-redshift AGN. The simulation self-consistently follows hundreds of millions of galaxies and supermassive black holes (SMBHs), together with their impact on the ionization and thermal state of the IGM. We exploit this uniquely large dynamic range to predict multi-band AGN luminosity functions (LFs) at $z \geq 3$, from hard X-rays to the mid-infrared. These predictions encompass both moderately luminous quasars and the faint ``Little Red Dots'' (LRDs) uncovered by JWST. We develop an empirical model that maps simulated SMBHs onto observed AGN using bolometric and extinction/absorption corrections for canonical AGN and LRDs, and in which SMBHs with $M_{\rm BH}\leq 10\,M_{\rm seed} \sim 10^{7}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$ stay in the LRD phase with a duty cycle of $30\%$. This simple framework reproduces the observed LFs and clustering of LRDs. Meanwhile, the pre-JWST quasar LF constraints are recovered, although we find that a $\sim 0.3$ dex log-normal scatter in bolometric luminosity is required to reproduce the bright end. We place the simulated AGN population in the cosmological context by quantifying the redshift evolution of AGN and LRD number densities, and their contributions to the integrated BH mass densities. The same AGN population is the dominant driver for the HeII reionization modelled self-consistently in Lumina. This empirical AGN model paves the way for general population-synthesis models of high-redshift AGN, including LRDs, in a unified cosmological framework.

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arXiv2026

The Lumina Project: CMB Optical Depth Fluctuations from Patchy Reionization

Patchy reionization couples the ionized-bubble morphology to the underlying density field, making the CMB Thomson optical depth sensitive to both the global ionization history and anisotropic fluctuations on the sky. Using the large-volume radiation-hydrodynamical Lumina simulation, we compute $τ_{\rm CMB}$ in two ways: (i) from global volume- and mass-weighted ionization histories, and (ii) from explicit line-of-sight integrations through on-the-fly light cones. We find that the sightline-averaged optical depth in the light cone, $\langle τ_{\rm LOS} \rangle = 0.0550$, exceeds the value inferred from a global volume-weighted history, $τ_{{\rm CMB},V} = 0.0515$, by $\approx 7\%$. This enhancement is largely captured by the global mass-weighted prediction, $τ_{{\rm CMB},m} = 0.0544$, indicating that precision comparisons to CMB optical-depth constraints should use mass-weighted electron fractions or explicit light-cone integration rather than volume-weighted ionized fractions alone. The excess optical depth accumulates primarily near $z_{\rm LOS} = 8.0^{+1.9}_{-1.3}$, where the combination of high physical density and strong ionization-field patchiness is greatest. The resulting $τ_{\rm LOS}$ field is non-Gaussian and exhibits $\gtrsim 5\%$ sightline-to-sightline scatter, with fluctuations tracing rare early-ionized overdensities and large-scale structure. Coarse-graining experiments show that smoothing the ionization field on $\gtrsim 3 {\rm cMpc}$ scales suppresses the density-ionization correlation and biases $τ_{\rm CMB}$ low relative to the resolved calculation. Finally, angular power spectra and real-space correlation functions decomposed into HII, HeII, and HeIII auto- and cross-contributions reveal scale-dependent departures from simple hydrogen-helium co-tracing and evolving characteristic scales with redshift.

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arXiv2026

Formation and Redshift Evolution of Dark Matter Spikes

Dark matter density spikes forming around adiabatically growing black holes can dramatically enhance indirect and direct detection signals. Canonical predictions, however, assume a zero-mass seed in a purely dark matter environment and do not track the long-term dynamical impact of surrounding stars. We present a semi-analytic framework that first generalizes adiabatic spike formation to include finite seed masses, stellar cusps, and non-circular orbits, and then studies the subsequent cosmic evolution by solving coupled Fokker-Planck equations for the dark matter and stellar phase-space distributions, with a heating rate modulated by the cosmic star formation rate. Starting conservatively from canonical Gondolo-Silk spikes and marginalizing over astrophysical uncertainties, we find that stellar gravitational heating drives the inner slope towards $γ_χ\simeq 1.5$ within a few Gyrs (e.g by $z \lesssim 2$ for spikes formed at $z\simeq 10$), yielding overdensities two to four orders of magnitude below canonical expectations but still well above an NFW-like cusp. We provide redshift-dependent benchmarks for the column density and $J$-factor relevant to scattering, decay and annihilation signatures. Any robust interpretation of indirect dark matter signals from galactic nuclei must account for this evolution.

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arXiv2026

Role of prompt cusps in driving the core collapse of SIDM halos

Prompt cusps (PCs) form from the direct collapse of overdensities in the early Universe, reside at the center of every dark matter halo, and have density profiles steeper than $r^{-1}$ NFW cusps. Using a suite of high-resolution N-body simulations, we study the evolution of isolated halos in self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) with massive PCs embedded at their centers, a scenario that could be realized in certain SIDM models with light mediators that predict a small-scale suppression of the linear matter power spectrum. We track the evolution of three equally concentrated $10^7\,{\rm{M}}_\odot$ halos, hosting PCs of various total masses, and quantify how the presence of a PC affects the processes of core formation and collapse. Early in the core-formation phase, halos with more prominent PCs exhibit a delayed evolution by a factor of $\sim 2$ due to smaller velocity dispersion gradients in the inner region. During most of the core-collapse phase, the halo evolution becomes closely aligned in physical time, with appropriate rescaling of densities, radii, and velocity dispersions. The scale densities and radii preserve the virial mass of the original halos, but with increased concentration. Deviations occur at the late phase of core-collapse at the level of $\sim 5\%$ relative to the reference collapse track of an NFW halo. These deviations depend non-trivially on both the increased concentration incurred by the PCs, as well as the velocity dispersion (temperature) of the outer halo regions, which can inhibit or enhance the heat transfer process. Our simulations illustrate the complex interplay between the inner and outer halo profiles in determining the onset of core collapse and motivate future studies in the full cosmological context.

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arXiv2026

How I Wonder What You Are -- JWST's Little Red Dots do not TWINKLE

Little Red Dots (LRDs) are a population of compact, red sources that have emerged as one of the most puzzling findings of JWST. Variability provides a direct probe of their central engines. Here we present the first joint spectroscopic and photometric time-domain study of LRDs undertaken with the JWST TWINKLE slitless spectroscopy program. Surveying the FRESCO GOODS-North legacy field, TWINKLE monitors a complete, H$α$-flux-limited sample of 18 LRDs at z = 3.9-6.8, achieving a rest-frame baseline of $\sim$140-220 days. We detect no variability in photometry, H$α$ line flux, or line shape across the sample. If LRDs resembled AGN in reverberation mapping samples -- the foundation for black hole mass calibrations and luminosity scaling relations -- we would expect >10 sources to show measurable fluctuations. Observing none implies a 5.9$σ$ deficit. The non-detections hold across all broad H$α$ emitters within TWINKLE's field of view -- the 18 V-shaped LRDs as well as 9 non-LRDs. Comparison with simulated light curves disfavors sub-Eddington accretion and is instead consistent with super-Eddington accretion, other mechanisms that suppress variability, or perhaps no AGN whatsoever. If LRDs do harbor black holes, calibrations derived from sub-Eddington systems may not apply, thereby explaining JWST's apparently "overmassive" black holes. These observations provide unique constraints on the physics of one of the most enigmatic populations discovered by JWST.

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arXiv2026

Metallicity Gradients in Modern Cosmological Simulations II: The Role of Bursty Versus Smooth Feedback at High-Redshift

The distribution of gas-phase metals within galaxies encodes the impact of stellar feedback on galactic evolution. At high-redshift, when galaxies are rapidly assembling, feedback-driven outflows and turbulence can strongly reshape radial metallicity gradients. In this work, we use the FIRE-2, SPICE, Thesan and Thesan Zoom cosmological simulations -- spanning a range of stellar feedback from bursty (time-variable) to smooth (steady) -- to investigate how these feedback modes shape gas-phase metallicity gradients at $3 10^{9}~{\rm M_\odot}$. These results demonstrate that bursty stellar feedback provides sufficient turbulence to prevent strong negative gradients from forming, while smooth stellar feedback does not generically allow for efficient radial redistribution of metals thereby keeping gradients steep. Finally, we compare with recent observations, finding that the majority -- but, notably, not all -- of the observed gradients may favor a bursty stellar feedback scenario. In all, these results highlight the utility of high-resolution observations of gas-phase metallicity at high-redshift as a key discriminator of these qualitatively different feedback types.

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arXiv2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Density Profiles

In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way-mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with Cold Dark Matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way-mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge.

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arXiv2026

Probing Atomic Dark Matter with Stellar Streams in Milky Way-Mass Galaxies

We present the first detailed analysis of the effects of dissipative dark matter on stellar streams. As a concrete example, we generate a cosmological hydrodynamic zoom-in simulation of a Milky Way-mass galaxy, assuming that the dark matter consists of Cold Dark Matter (CDM) with a sub-component ($\sim6\%$) of Atomic Dark Matter (ADM). The ADM subcomponent behaves as collisional, efficiently dissipative gas and allows for the formation of dense compact objects that enhance the central density of satellite galaxies, making them more resistant to tidal disruption. We show that stellar streams with stellar mass $M_{\rm{tot}, \star} \gtrsim 10^{5.5} \ \text{M}_\odot$ form later and exhibit prolonged star formation throughout their evolution, as compared to their CDM counterparts. Changes to star formation history are reflected on the chemical tracks of the stellar stream stars, where the youngest have enhanced [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe] in the presence of ADM. Furthermore, a population of low-mass satellites with high ADM mass fractions is identified at low pericenter distances, which may affect the population of streams at $M_{\rm{tot}, \star} \lesssim 10^{5.5} \ \text{M}_\odot$. The results of this study should generalize to other dark matter models that lead to inner-density enhancements in satellites, such as elastic self-interacting dark matter in the gravothermal collapse regime.

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arXiv2026

Novel density profile for isothermal cores of dark matter halos

We present a novel analytic density profile for halos in self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) models, which accurately captures the isothermal-core configuration, i.e. where both the density and velocity dispersion profiles exhibit central plateaus in the halo innermost region. Importantly, the profile retains a simple and tractable functional form. We demonstrate analytically how our density profile satisfies the aforementioned conditions, with comparisons to other contemporary functional choices. We further validate the profile using idealized N-body simulations, showing that it provides excellent representations of both the density and velocity dispersion profiles across a broad range of evolutionary stages, from the early thermalization phase to the late core-collapse regime. As a result of its accuracy and simplicity, the proposed profile offers a robust framework for analyzing halo evolution in a variety of SIDM scenarios. It also holds practical utility in reducing simulation needs and in generating initial conditions for simulations targeting the deep core-collapse regime.

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arXiv2026

The THESAN-ZOOM project: Mystery N/O more -- uncovering the origin of peculiar chemical abundances and a not-so-fundamental metallicity relation at $3<z<12$

We present an analysis of metallicities and chemical abundances at $3 -0.6$) without the need for exotic yields in our chemical network. Instead, bursty star formation naturally generates order-of-magnitude excursions in N/O on $\lesssim$100 Myr timescales due to temporally differential galactic winds; after a starburst, stellar feedback expels gas, leaving a large population of asymptotic-giant-branch stars to dominate the enrichment of the relatively low-mass interstellar medium. NRGs lie below the main sequence and typically exhibit $\mathrm{EW}[H$β$]\lesssim40$ Å, in apparent tension with observed high-EW NRGs. This tension is reconciled if observed NRGs are in the initial stages of a subsequent starburst, illuminating previously enriched gas, which is supported by the finding of high SFR surface density nitrogen-rich giant molecular clouds.

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arXiv2026

The THESAN-ZOOM project: Burst, quench, repeat -- unveiling the evolution of high-redshift galaxies along the star-forming main sequence

Characterizing the evolution of the star-forming main sequence (SFMS) at high redshift is crucial to contextualize the observed extreme properties of galaxies in the early Universe. We present an analysis of the SFMS and its scatter in the THESAN-ZOOM simulations, where we find a redshift evolution of the SFMS normalization scaling as $\propto (1+z)^{2.64\pm0.03}$, significantly stronger than is typically inferred from observations. We can reproduce the flatter observed evolution by filtering out weakly star-forming galaxies, implying that current observational fits are biased due to a missing population of lulling galaxies or overestimated star-formation rates. We also explore star-formation variability using the scatter of galaxies around the SFMS ($σ_{\mathrm{MS}}$). At the population level, the scatter around the SFMS increases with cosmic time, driven by the increased importance of long-term environmental effects in regulating star formation at later times. To study short-term star-formation variability, or ''burstiness'', we isolate the scatter on timescales shorter than 50 Myr. The short-term scatter is larger at higher redshift, indicating that star formation is indeed more bursty in the early Universe. We identify two starburst modes: (i) externally driven, where rapid large-scale inflows trigger and fuel prolonged, extreme star formation episodes, and (ii) internally driven, where cyclical ejection and re-accretion of the interstellar medium in low-mass galaxies drive bursts, even under relatively steady large-scale inflow. Both modes occur at all redshifts, but the increased burstiness of galaxies at higher redshift is due to the increasing prevalence of the more extreme external mode of star formation.

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arXiv2026

The THESAN-ZOOM project: central starbursts and inside-out quenching govern galaxy sizes in the early Universe

We explore the evolution of galaxy sizes at high redshift ($3 < z < 13$) using the high-resolution THESAN-ZOOM radiation-hydrodynamics simulations, focusing on the mass range of $10^6\,\mathrm{M}_{\odot} < \mathrm{M}_{\ast} < 10^{10}\,\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$. Our analysis reveals that galaxy size growth is tightly coupled to bursty star formation. Galaxies above the star-forming main sequence tend to form stars in a central starburst, which decreases their radial size. These galaxies quench inside-out, causing spatially extended star formation and increasing their radial size, leading to oscillatory behavior around the size-mass relation. Notably, we find a positive intrinsic size-mass relation at high redshift, consistent with observations but in tension with large-volume simulations. We attribute this discrepancy to the bursty star formation captured by our multi-phase interstellar medium framework, but missing from simulations using the effective equation-of-state approach with hydrodynamically decoupled feedback. We also find that the normalization of the size-mass relation follows a double power law as a function of redshift, with a break at $z\approx6$, because the majority of galaxies at $z > 6$ show rising star-formation histories, and therefore are in a compaction phase. We demonstrate that H$α$ emission is systematically extended relative to the UV continuum by a median factor of 1.7, consistent with recent JWST studies. However, in contrast to previous interpretations that link extended H$α$ sizes to inside-out growth, we find that Lyman-continuum (LyC) emission is spatially disconnected from H$α$. Instead, a simple Strömgren sphere argument reproduces observed trends, suggesting that extreme LyC production during central starbursts is the primary driver of extended nebular emission.

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arXiv2026

Overmassive black holes in the early Universe can be explained by gas-rich, dark matter-dominated galaxies

JWST has revealed the apparent evolution of the black hole (BH)-stellar mass ($M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\rm{\ast}$) relation in the early Universe, while remaining consistent with the BH-dynamical mass ($M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{dyn}$) relation. We predict BH masses for $z>3$ galaxies in the high-resolution THESAN-ZOOM simulations by assuming the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{dyn}$ relation is fundamental. Even without live BH modelling, our approach reproduces the JWST-observed $M_\mathrm{BH}$ distribution, including overmassive BHs relative to the local $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{\ast}$ relation. We find that $M_\mathrm{BH}/M_\mathrm{\ast}$ declines with $M_\mathrm{\ast}$, evolving from $\sim$0.1 at $M_\mathrm{\ast}=10^6\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$ to $\sim$0.01 at $M_\mathrm{\ast}=10^{10.5}\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$. This trend reflects the dark matter ($f_\mathrm{DM}$) and gas fractions ($f_\mathrm{gas}$), which decrease with $M_\mathrm{\ast}$ but show little redshift evolution down to $z=3$, resulting in small $M_\mathrm{\ast}/M_\mathrm{dyn}$ ratios and thus overmassive BHs in low-mass galaxies. We use $\texttt{Prospector}$-derived stellar masses and star-formation rates to infer $f_\mathrm{gas}$ across 48,022 galaxies in JADES at $3<z<9$, finding excellent agreement with our simulation. Our results demonstrate that overmassive BHs would naturally result from a fundamental $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{dyn}$ relation and be typical of the gas-rich, dark matter-dominated nature of low-mass, high-redshift galaxies. Such overmassive BHs may strongly influence early galaxy formation, and we caution that our approach does not include the self-consistent BH-galaxy co-evolution required for a complete understanding.

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arXiv2026

A Cosmic Miracle: A Remarkably Luminous Galaxy at $z_{\rm{spec}}=14.44$ Confirmed with JWST

JWST has revealed a stunning population of bright galaxies at surprisingly early epochs, $z>10$, where few such sources were expected. Here we present the most distant example of this class yet -- MoM-z14, a luminous ($M_{\rm{UV}}=-20.2$) source in the COSMOS field at $z_{\rm{spec}}=14.44^{+0.02}_{-0.02}$ that expands the observational frontier to a mere 280 million years after the Big Bang. The redshift is confirmed with NIRSpec/PRISM spectroscopy through a sharp Lyman-$α$ break and $\sim3σ$ detections of five rest-UV emission lines. The number density of bright $z_{\rm{spec}}\sim14-15$ sources implied by our "Mirage or Miracle" survey spanning $\sim350$ arcmin$^{2}$ is $>100\times$ larger ($182^{+329}_{-105}\times$) than pre-JWST consensus models. The high EWs of UV lines ($\sim15{-}35$ Å) signal a rising star-formation history, with a $\sim10\times$ increase in the last 5 Myr ($\rm{SFR_{\rm{5Myr}}}/\rm{SFR_{\rm{50Myr}}}=9.9^{+3.0}_{-5.8}$). The source is extremely compact (circularized $r_{\rm{e}} = 74^{+15}_{-12}$ pc), and yet elongated ($b/a=0.25^{+0.11}_{-0.06}$), suggesting an AGN is not the dominant source of UV light. The steep UV slope ($β=-2.5^{+0.2}_{-0.2}$) implies negligible dust attenuation and a young stellar population. The absence of a strong damping wing provides tentative evidence that the immediate surroundings of MoM-z14 may be partially ionized at a redshift where virtually every reionization model predicts a $\sim100\%$ neutral fraction. The nitrogen emission and highly super-solar [N/C]$>1$ hint at an abundance pattern similar to local globular clusters that may have once hosted luminous supermassive stars. Since this abundance pattern is also common among the most ancient stars born in the Milky Way, we may be directly witnessing the formation of such stars in dense clusters, connecting galaxy evolution across the entire sweep of cosmic time.

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arXiv2026

The THESAN-ZOOM project: The Hidden Neighbours of OI Absorbers during Reionization

Metal absorbers represent a powerful probe of galaxy feedback and reionization, as highlighted by both observational and theoretical results showing an increased abundance of low-ionised metal species at higher redshifts. The origin of such absorbers is currently largely unknown because of the low number of galaxy counterparts detected, suggesting that they might be surrounded by low-mass faint sources below the current detection threshold. We use the THESAN-ZOOM radiation hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the connection between properties of neutral oxygen (OI) absorbers and galaxies across redshift $z = 5 - 8$. We find that the virialised gas in haloes becomes progressively ionised with cosmic time, leading to a decrease of $\approx 0.2$ in the covering fraction of neutral oxygen, while the total oxygen covering fraction remains constant. Comparing the OI line density obtained from our covering fractions with the trend suggested by blind quasar observations, we determine that the observable absorbers ($N_{\rm OI} \gtrsim 10^{13}\,\text{cm}^{-2}$) are not confined to haloes: at $z \geq 5$ the majority ($\gtrsim 60\%$) arise beyond $R_{\rm{vir}}$, consistent with recent JWST results. Close to OI absorbers, low-mass galaxies ($M_\star \leq 10^8\,\rm{M}_\odot$) are more commonly found, while, depending on the simulated environment, we do not exclude the possibility of nearby more massive star-forming sources ($\geq 5\,\text{M}_\odot\,\text{yr}^{-1}$) similar to those suggested by the latest ALMA observations. These results establish OI absorbers as sensitive tracers of the evolving ionisation structure around faint galaxies to be probed by forthcoming deep spectroscopic surveys.

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arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS Cold Dark Matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way-mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local DM speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the DM speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the Standard Halo Model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way-mass halos.

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arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We analyze the properties of satellite galaxies around 1,024 Milky Way-mass hosts from the DREAMS Project, simulated within a $Λ$CDM cosmology. Utilizing the TNG galaxy-formation model, the DREAMS simulations incorporate both baryonic physics and cosmological uncertainties for a large sample of galaxies with diverse environments and formation histories. We investigate the relative impact of the physical uncertainty from the galaxy-formation model on predicted satellite properties using four metrics: the satellite stellar mass function, radial distribution, inner slope of dark matter density profile, and stellar half-light radius. We compare these predictions to observations from the SAGA Survey and the DREAMS N-body simulations and find that uncertainties from baryonic physics modeling are subdominant to the scatter arising from halo-to-halo variance. Where baryonic modeling does affect satellites, the supernova wind energy has the largest effect on the satellite properties that we investigate. Specifically, increased supernova wind energy suppresses the stellar mass of satellites and results in more extended stellar half-light radii. The adopted wind speed has only a minor impact, and other astrophysical and cosmological parameters show no measurable effect. Our findings highlight the robustness of satellite properties against uncertainties in baryonic physics modeling.

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