arXiv subjects

Zachary Feinstein

Publications and source records attributed to Zachary Feinstein.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Dynamic Clearing and Contagion in Financial Networks

In this paper we introduce a generalized extension of the Eisenberg-Noe model of financial contagion to allow for time dynamics of the interbank liabilities, including a dynamic examination of default risk. This framework separates the cash account and long-term capital account to more accurately model the health of a financial institution. In doing so, such a system allows us to distinguish between delinquency and default as well as between defaults resulting from either insolvency or illiquidity.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2024

Deep Learning the Efficient Frontier of Convex Vector Optimization Problems

In this paper, we design a neural network architecture to approximate the weakly efficient frontier of convex vector optimization problems (CVOP) satisfying Slater's condition. The proposed machine learning methodology provides both an inner and outer approximation of the weakly efficient frontier, as well as an upper bound to the error at each approximated efficient point. In numerical case studies we demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is effectively able to approximate the true weakly efficient frontier of CVOPs. This remains true even for large problems (i.e., many objectives, variables, and constraints) and thus overcoming the curse of dimensionality.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Approximating the set of Nash equilibria for convex games

In Feinstein and Rudloff (2023), it was shown that the set of Nash equilibria for any non-cooperative $N$ player game coincides with the set of Pareto optimal points of a certain vector optimization problem with non-convex ordering cone. To avoid dealing with a non-convex ordering cone, an equivalent characterization of the set of Nash equilibria as the intersection of the Pareto optimal points of $N$ multi-objective problems (i.e.\ with the natural ordering cone) is proven. So far, algorithms to compute the exact set of Pareto optimal points of a multi-objective problem exist only for the class of linear problems, which reduces the possibility of finding the true set of Nash equilibria by those algorithms to linear games only. In this paper, we will consider the larger class of convex games. As, typically, only approximate solutions can be computed for convex vector optimization problems, we first show, in total analogy to the result above, that the set of $ε$-approximate Nash equilibria can be characterized by the intersection of $ε$-approximate Pareto optimal points for $N$ convex multi-objective problems. Then, we propose an algorithm based on results from vector optimization and convex projections that allows for the computation of a set that, on one hand, contains the set of all true Nash equilibria, and is, on the other hand, contained in the set of $ε$-approximate Nash equilibria. In addition to the joint convexity of the cost function for each player, this algorithm works provided the players are restricted by either shared polyhedral constraints or independent convex constraints.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

Modeling Inverse Demand Function with Explainable Dual Neural Networks

Financial contagion has been widely recognized as a fundamental risk to the financial system. Particularly potent is price-mediated contagion, wherein forced liquidations by firms depress asset prices and propagate financial stress, enabling crises to proliferate across a broad spectrum of seemingly unrelated entities. Price impacts are currently modeled via exogenous inverse demand functions. However, in real-world scenarios, only the initial shocks and the final equilibrium asset prices are typically observable, leaving actual asset liquidations largely obscured. This missing data presents significant limitations to calibrating the existing models. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel dual neural network structure that operates in two sequential stages: the first neural network maps initial shocks to predicted asset liquidations, and the second network utilizes these liquidations to derive resultant equilibrium prices. This data-driven approach can capture both linear and non-linear forms without pre-specifying an analytical structure; furthermore, it functions effectively even in the absence of observable liquidation data. Experiments with simulated datasets demonstrate that our model can accurately predict equilibrium asset prices based solely on initial shocks, while revealing a strong alignment between predicted and true liquidations. Our explainable framework contributes to the understanding and modeling of price-mediated contagion and provides valuable insights for financial authorities to construct effective stress tests and regulatory policies.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2023

Stochastic Cell Transmission Models of Traffic Networks

We introduce a rigorous framework for stochastic cell transmission models for general traffic networks. The performance of traffic systems is evaluated based on preference functionals and acceptable designs. The numerical implementation combines simulation, Gaussian process regression, and a stochastic exploration procedure. The approach is illustrated in two case studies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Characterizing and Computing the Set of Nash Equilibria via Vector Optimization

Nash equilibria and Pareto optimality are two distinct concepts when dealing with multiple criteria. It is well known that the two concepts do not coincide. However, in this work we show that it is possible to characterize the set of all Nash equilibria for any non-cooperative game as the Pareto optimal solutions of a certain vector optimization problem. To accomplish this task, we increase the dimensionality of the objective function and formulate a non-convex ordering cone under which Nash equilibria are Pareto efficient. We demonstrate these results, first, for shared constraint games in which a joint constraint is applied to all players in a non-cooperative game. In doing so, we directly relate our proposed Pareto optimal solutions to the best response functions of each player. These results are then extended to generalized Nash games, where, in addition to providing an extension of the above characterization, we deduce two vector optimization problems providing necessary and sufficient conditions, respectively, for generalized Nash equilibria. Finally, we show that all prior results hold for vector-valued games as well. Multiple numerical examples are given and demonstrate that our proposed vector optimization formulation readily finds the set of all Nash equilibria.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Contingent Convertible Obligations and Financial Stability

This paper investigates whether a financial system can be made more stable if financial institutions share risk by exchanging contingent convertible (CoCo) debt obligations. The question is framed in a financial network model of debt and equity interlinkages with the addition of a variant of the CoCo that converts continuously when a bank's equity-debt ratio drops to a trigger level. The main theoretical result is a complete characterization of the clearing problem for the interbank debt and equity at the maturity of the obligations. We then introduce stylized networks to study when introducing contingent convertible bonds improves financial stability, as well as specific networks for which contingent convertible bonds do not provide uniformly improved system performance. To return to the main question, we examine the EU financial network at the time of the 2011 EBA stress test to do comparative statics to study the implications of CoCo debt on financial stability. It is found that by replacing all unsecured interbank debt by standardized CoCo interbank debt securities, systemic risk in the EU will decrease and bank shareholder value will increase.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2022

Contagious McKean-Vlasov systems with heterogeneous impact and exposure

We introduce a heterogeneous formulation of a contagious McKean-Vlasov system, whose inherent heterogeneity comes from asymmetric interactions with a natural and highly tractable structure. It is shown that this formulation characterises the limit points of a finite particle system, deriving from a balance sheet based model of solvency contagion in interbank markets, where banks have heterogeneous exposure to and impact on the distress within the system. We also provide a simple result on global uniqueness for the full problem with common noise under a smallness condition on the strength of interactions, and we show that, in the problem without common noise, there is a unique differentiable solution up to an explosion time. Finally, we discuss an intuitive and consistent way of specifying how the system should jump to resolve an instability when the contagious pressures become too large. This is known to happen even in the homogeneous version of the problem, where jumps are specified by a 'physical' notion of solution, but no such notion currently exists for a heterogeneous formulation of the system.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Optimal Network Compression

This paper introduces a formulation of the optimal network compression problem for financial systems. This general formulation is presented for different levels of network compression or rerouting allowed from the initial interbank network. We prove that this problem is, generically, NP-hard. We focus on objective functions generated by systemic risk measures under shocks to the financial network. We use this framework to study the (sub)optimality of the maximally compressed network. We conclude by studying the optimal compression problem for specific networks; this permits us to study, e.g., the so-called robust fragility of certain network topologies more generally as well as the potential benefits and costs of network compression. In particular, under systematic shocks and heterogeneous financial networks the robust fragility results of Acemoglu et al. (2015) no longer hold generally.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2022

Endogenous inverse demand functions

In this work we present an equilibrium formulation for price impacts. This is motivated by the Buhlmann equilibrium in which assets are sold into a system of market participants, e.g. a fire sale in systemic risk, and can be viewed as a generalization of the Esscher premium. Existence and uniqueness of clearing prices for the liquidation of a portfolio are studied. We also investigate other desired portfolio properties including monotonicity and concavity. Price per portfolio unit sold is also calculated. In special cases, we study price impacts generated by market participants who follow the exponential utility and power utility.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2022

Clearing prices under margin calls and the short squeeze

In this paper, we propose a clearing model for prices in a financial markets due to margin calls on short sold assets. In doing so, we construct an explicit formulation for the prices that would result immediately following asset purchases and a margin call. The key result of this work is the determination of a threshold short interest ratio which, if exceeded, results in the discontinuity of the clearing prices due to a feedback loop.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2022

Decentralized Payment Clearing using Blockchain and Optimal Bidding

In this paper, we construct a decentralized clearing mechanism which endogenously and automatically provides a claims resolution procedure. This mechanism can be used to clear a network of obligations through blockchain. In particular, we investigate default contagion in a network of smart contracts cleared through blockchain. In so doing, we provide an algorithm which constructs the blockchain so as to guarantee the payments can be verified and the miners earn a fee. We, additionally, consider the special case in which the blocks have unbounded capacity to provide a simple equilibrium clearing condition for the terminal net worths; existence and uniqueness are proven for this system. Finally, we consider the optimal bidding strategies for each firm in the network so that all firms are utility maximizers with respect to their terminal wealths. We first look for a mixed Nash equilibrium bidding strategies, and then also consider Pareto optimal bidding strategies. The implications of these strategies, and more broadly blockchain, on systemic risk are considered.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2021

Set-Valued Dynamic Risk Measures for Processes and Vectors

The relationship between set-valued risk measures for processes and vectors on the optional filtration is investigated. The equivalence of risk measures for processes and vectors and the equivalence of their penalty function formulations are provided. In contrast with scalar risk measures, this equivalence requires an augmentation of the set-valued risk measures for processes. We utilize this result to deduce a new dual representation for risk measures for processes in the set-valued framework. Finally, the equivalence of multiportfolio time consistency between set-valued risk measures for processes and vectors is provided; to accomplish this, an augmented definition for multiportfolio time consistency of set-valued risk measures for processes is proposed.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2021

Time consistency for scalar multivariate risk measures

In this paper we present results on dynamic multivariate scalar risk measures, which arise in markets with transaction costs and systemic risk. Dual representations of such risk measures are presented. These are then used to obtain the main results of this paper on time consistency; namely, an equivalent recursive formulation of multivariate scalar risk measures to multiportfolio time consistency. We are motivated to study time consistency of multivariate scalar risk measures as the superhedging risk measure in markets with transaction costs (with a single eligible asset) (Jouini and Kallal (1995), Roux and Zastawniak (2016), Loehne and Rudloff (2014)) does not satisfy the usual scalar concept of time consistency. In fact, as demonstrated in (Feinstein and Rudloff (2021)), scalar risk measures with the same scalarization weight at all times would not be time consistent in general. The deduced recursive relation for the scalarizations of multiportfolio time consistent set-valued risk measures provided in this paper requires consideration of the entire family of scalarizations. In this way we develop a direct notion of a "moving scalarization" for scalar time consistency that corroborates recent research on scalarizations of dynamic multi-objective problems (Karnam, Ma, and Zhang (2017), Kovacova and Rudloff (2021)).

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2021

Pricing of debt and equity in a financial network with comonotonic endowments

In this paper we present formulas for the valuation of debt and equity of firms in a financial network under comonotonic endowments. We demonstrate that the comonotonic setting provides a lower bound and Jensen's inequality provides an upper bound to the price of debt under Eisenberg-Noe financial networks with bankruptcy costs. Such financial networks encode the interconnection of firms through debt claims. The proposed pricing formulas consider the realized, endogenous, recovery rate on debt claims. Special consideration is given to the CAPM setting in which firms invest in correlated portfolios so as to provide analytical stress testing formulas. We endogenously construct the comonotonic endowment setting from a equity maximizing standpoint with capital transfers. We conclude by, numerically, comparing the network valuation problem with two single firm baseline heuristics which can, respectively, approximate the price of debt and equity.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2021

Dynamic Default Contagion in Heterogeneous Interbank Systems

In this work we provide a simple setting that connects the structural modelling approach of Gai-Kapadia interbank networks with the mean-field approach to default contagion. To accomplish this we make two key contributions. First, we propose a dynamic default contagion model with endogenous early defaults for a finite set of banks, generalising the Gai-Kapadia framework. Second, we reformulate this system as a stochastic particle system leading to a limiting mean-field problem. We study the existence of these clearing systems and, for the mean-field problem, the continuity of the system response.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2021

A Repo Model of Fire Sales with VWAP and LOB Pricing Mechanisms

We consider a network of banks that optimally choose a strategy of asset liquidations and borrowing in order to cover short term obligations. The borrowing is done in the form of collateralized repurchase agreements, the haircut level of which depends on the total liquidations of all the banks. Similarly the fire-sale price of the asset obtained by each of the banks depends on the amount of assets liquidated by the bank itself and by other banks. By nature of this setup, banks' behavior is considered as a Nash equilibrium. This paper provides two forms for market clearing to occur: through a common closing price and through an application of the limit order book. The main results of this work are providing the existence of maximal and minimal clearing solutions (i.e., liquidations, borrowing, fire sale prices, and haircut levels) as well as sufficient conditions for uniqueness of the clearing solutions.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2021

Price mediated contagion through capital ratio requirements with VWAP liquidation prices

We develop a framework for price-mediated contagion in financial systems where banks are forced to liquidate assets to satisfy a risk-weight based capital adequacy requirement. In constructing this modeling framework, we introduce a two-tier pricing structure: the volume weighted average price that is obtained by any bank liquidating assets and the terminal mark-to-market price used to account for all assets held at the end of the clearing process. We consider the case of multiple illiquid assets and develop conditions for the existence and uniqueness of clearing prices. We provide a closed-form representation for the sensitivity of these clearing prices to the system parameters, and use this result to quantify: (1) the cost of regulation, in stress scenarios, faced by the system as a whole and the individual banks, and (2) the value of providing bailouts to consider when such notions are financially advisable. Numerical case studies are provided to study the application of this model to data.

q-fin.MF↗