arXiv subjects

Zhixin Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Zhixin Zhou.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Sharp spectral norm concentration of sparse random tensors

We prove a sharp concentration inequality for the spectral norm of sparse random tensors with independent Bernoulli entries. Let $T$ be an order-$k$ tensor of dimension $n\times\cdots\times n$ with independent Bernoulli$(p)$ entries, where $k$ is fixed. For any $c,r>0$, we show that $\|T-\mathbb E T\|\le C_{k,r,c}\sqrt{np}$ with probability at least $1-n^{-r}$ whenever $np\ge c\log n$. We extend this bound to inhomogeneous Bernoulli sampling with deterministic entrywise weights. This removes the logarithmic factor in the work of Zhou and Zhu (2021). The proof follows the Kahn--Szemerédi light--heavy decomposition with a refined estimate on the heavy tuple part. We also obtain a log-free second eigenvalue bound for the random hypergraph model of Friedman and Wigderson (1995).

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Co-optimization for Adaptive Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as conformalized quantile regression (CQR) often inherit a fixed notion of center and enforce equal-tailed errors, which can displace the interval away from high-density regions and produce unnecessarily wide sets. We propose Co-optimization for Adaptive Conformal Prediction (CoCP), a framework that learns prediction intervals by jointly optimizing a center $m(x)$ and a radius $h(x)$.CoCP alternates between (i) learning $h(x)$ via quantile regression on the folded absolute residual around the current center, and (ii) refining $m(x)$ with a differentiable soft-coverage objective whose gradients concentrate near the current boundaries, effectively correcting mis-centering without estimating the full conditional density. Finite-sample marginal validity is guaranteed by split-conformal calibration with a normalized nonconformity score. Theory characterizes the population fixed point of the soft objective and shows that, under standard regularity conditions, CoCP asymptotically approaches the length-minimizing conditional interval at the target coverage level as the estimation error and smoothing vanish. Experiments on synthetic and real benchmarks demonstrate that CoCP yields consistently shorter intervals and achieves state-of-the-art conditional-coverage diagnostics.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Fast Conformal Prediction using Conditional Interquantile Intervals

We introduce Conformal Interquantile Regression (CIR), a conformal regression method that efficiently constructs near-minimal prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. CIR leverages black-box machine learning models to estimate outcome distributions through interquantile ranges, transforming these estimates into compact prediction intervals while achieving approximate conditional coverage. We further propose CIR+ (Conditional Interquantile Regression with More Comparison), which enhances CIR by incorporating a width-based selection rule for interquantile intervals. This refinement yields narrower prediction intervals while maintaining comparable coverage, though at the cost of slightly increased computational time. Both methods address key limitations of existing distributional conformal prediction approaches: they handle skewed distributions more effectively than Conformalized Quantile Regression, and they achieve substantially higher computational efficiency than Conformal Histogram Regression by eliminating the need for histogram construction. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our methods optimally balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing approaches.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Enhancing Adversarial Robustness with Conformal Prediction: A Framework for Guaranteed Model Reliability

As deep learning models are increasingly deployed in high-risk applications, robust defenses against adversarial attacks and reliable performance guarantees become paramount. Moreover, accuracy alone does not provide sufficient assurance or reliable uncertainty estimates for these models. This study advances adversarial training by leveraging principles from Conformal Prediction. Specifically, we develop an adversarial attack method, termed OPSA (OPtimal Size Attack), designed to reduce the efficiency of conformal prediction at any significance level by maximizing model uncertainty without requiring coverage guarantees. Correspondingly, we introduce OPSA-AT (Adversarial Training), a defense strategy that integrates OPSA within a novel conformal training paradigm. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that our OPSA attack method induces greater uncertainty compared to baseline approaches for various defenses. Conversely, our OPSA-AT defensive model significantly enhances robustness not only against OPSA but also other adversarial attacks, and maintains reliable prediction. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of this integrated approach for developing trustworthy and resilient deep learning models for safety-critical domains. Our code is available at https://github.com/bjbbbb/Enhancing-Adversarial-Robustness-with-Conformal-Prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Residual Reweighted Conformal Prediction for Graph Neural Networks

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel at modeling relational data but face significant challenges in high-stakes domains due to unquantified uncertainty. Conformal prediction (CP) offers statistical coverage guarantees, but existing methods often produce overly conservative prediction intervals that fail to account for graph heteroscedasticity and structural biases. While residual reweighting CP variants address some of these limitations, they neglect graph topology, cluster-specific uncertainties, and risk data leakage by reusing training sets. To address these issues, we propose Residual Reweighted GNN (RR-GNN), a framework designed to generate minimal prediction sets with provable marginal coverage guarantees. RR-GNN introduces three major innovations to enhance prediction performance. First, it employs Graph-Structured Mondrian CP to partition nodes or edges into communities based on topological features, ensuring cluster-conditional coverage that reflects heterogeneity. Second, it uses Residual-Adaptive Nonconformity Scores by training a secondary GNN on a held-out calibration set to estimate task-specific residuals, dynamically adjusting prediction intervals according to node or edge uncertainty. Third, it adopts a Cross-Training Protocol, which alternates the optimization of the primary GNN and the residual predictor to prevent information leakage while maintaining graph dependencies. We validate RR-GNN on 15 real-world graphs across diverse tasks, including node classification, regression, and edge weight prediction. Compared to CP baselines, RR-GNN achieves improved efficiency over state-of-the-art methods, with no loss of coverage.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Conditional Conformal Risk Adaptation

Uncertainty quantification is becoming increasingly important in image segmentation, especially for high-stakes applications like medical imaging. While conformal risk control generalizes conformal prediction beyond standard miscoverage to handle various loss functions such as false negative rate, its application to segmentation often yields inadequate conditional risk control: some images experience very high false negative rates while others have negligibly small ones. We develop Conformal Risk Adaptation (CRA), which introduces a new score function for creating adaptive prediction sets that significantly improve conditional risk control for segmentation tasks. We establish a novel theoretical framework that demonstrates a fundamental connection between conformal risk control and conformal prediction through a weighted quantile approach, applicable to any score function. To address the challenge of poorly calibrated probabilities in segmentation models, we introduce a specialized probability calibration framework that enhances the reliability of pixel-wise inclusion estimates. Using these calibrated probabilities, we propose Calibrated Conformal Risk Adaptation (CCRA) and a stratified variant (CCRA-S) that partitions images based on their characteristics and applies group-specific thresholds to further enhance conditional risk control. Our experiments on polyp segmentation demonstrate that all three methods (CRA, CCRA, and CCRA-S) provide valid marginal risk control and deliver more consistent conditional risk control across diverse images compared to standard approaches, offering a principled approach to uncertainty quantification that is particularly valuable for high-stakes and personalized segmentation applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Enhanced Route Planning with Calibrated Uncertainty Set

This paper investigates the application of probabilistic prediction methodologies in route planning within a road network context. Specifically, we introduce the Conformalized Quantile Regression for Graph Autoencoders (CQR-GAE), which leverages the conformal prediction technique to offer a coverage guarantee, thus improving the reliability and robustness of our predictions. By incorporating uncertainty sets derived from CQR-GAE, we substantially improve the decision-making process in route planning under a robust optimization framework. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying the CQR-GAE model to a real-world traffic scenario. The results indicate that our model significantly outperforms baseline methods, offering a promising avenue for advancing intelligent transportation systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Weighted Aggregation of Conformity Scores for Classification

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees in multi-class classification. However, existing methods often rely on a single score function, which can limit their efficiency and informativeness. We propose a novel approach that combines multiple score functions to improve the performance of conformal predictors by identifying optimal weights that minimize prediction set size. Our theoretical analysis establishes a connection between the weighted score functions and subgraph classes of functions studied in Vapnik-Chervonenkis theory, providing a rigorous mathematical basis for understanding the effectiveness of the proposed method. Experiments demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms single-score conformal predictors while maintaining valid coverage, offering a principled and data-driven way to enhance the efficiency and practicality of conformal prediction in classification tasks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Game-Theoretic Defenses for Robust Conformal Prediction Against Adversarial Attacks in Medical Imaging

Adversarial attacks pose significant threats to the reliability and safety of deep learning models, especially in critical domains such as medical imaging. This paper introduces a novel framework that integrates conformal prediction with game-theoretic defensive strategies to enhance model robustness against both known and unknown adversarial perturbations. We address three primary research questions: constructing valid and efficient conformal prediction sets under known attacks (RQ1), ensuring coverage under unknown attacks through conservative thresholding (RQ2), and determining optimal defensive strategies within a zero-sum game framework (RQ3). Our methodology involves training specialized defensive models against specific attack types and employing maximum and minimum classifiers to aggregate defenses effectively. Extensive experiments conducted on the MedMNIST datasets, including PathMNIST, OrganAMNIST, and TissueMNIST, demonstrate that our approach maintains high coverage guarantees while minimizing prediction set sizes. The game-theoretic analysis reveals that the optimal defensive strategy often converges to a singular robust model, outperforming uniform and simple strategies across all evaluated datasets. This work advances the state-of-the-art in uncertainty quantification and adversarial robustness, providing a reliable mechanism for deploying deep learning models in adversarial environments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Volume-Sorted Prediction Set: Efficient Conformal Prediction for Multi-Target Regression

We introduce Volume-Sorted Prediction Set (VSPS), a novel method for uncertainty quantification in multi-target regression that uses conditional normalizing flows with conformal calibration. This approach constructs flexible, non-convex predictive regions with guaranteed coverage probabilities, overcoming limitations of traditional methods. By learning a transformation where the conditional distribution of responses follows a known form, VSPS identifies dense regions in the original space using the Jacobian determinant. This enables the creation of prediction regions that adapt to the true underlying distribution, focusing on areas of high probability density. Experimental results demonstrate that VSPS produces smaller, more informative prediction regions while maintaining robust coverage guarantees, enhancing uncertainty modeling in complex, high-dimensional settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Enhancing Trustworthiness of Graph Neural Networks with Rank-Based Conformal Training

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) has been widely used in a variety of fields because of their great potential in representing graph-structured data. However, lacking of rigorous uncertainty estimations limits their application in high-stakes. Conformal Prediction (CP) can produce statistically guaranteed uncertainty estimates by using the classifier's probability estimates to obtain prediction sets, which contains the true class with a user-specified probability. In this paper, we propose a Rank-based CP during training framework to GNNs (RCP-GNN) for reliable uncertainty estimates to enhance the trustworthiness of GNNs in the node classification scenario. By exploiting rank information of the classifier's outcome, prediction sets with desired coverage rate can be efficiently constructed. The strategy of CP during training with differentiable rank-based conformity loss function is further explored to adapt prediction sets according to network topology information. In this way, the composition of prediction sets can be guided by the goal of jointly reducing inefficiency and probability estimation errors. Extensive experiments on several real-world datasets show that our model achieves any pre-defined target marginal coverage while significantly reducing the inefficiency compared with state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Conformal Thresholded Intervals for Efficient Regression

This paper introduces Conformal Thresholded Intervals (CTI), a novel conformal regression method that aims to produce the smallest possible prediction set with guaranteed coverage. Unlike existing methods that rely on nested conformal frameworks and full conditional distribution estimation, CTI estimates the conditional probability density for a new response to fall into each interquantile interval using off-the-shelf multi-output quantile regression. By leveraging the inverse relationship between interval length and probability density, CTI constructs prediction sets by thresholding the estimated conditional interquantile intervals based on their length. The optimal threshold is determined using a calibration set to ensure marginal coverage, effectively balancing the trade-off between prediction set size and coverage. CTI's approach is computationally efficient and avoids the complexity of estimating the full conditional distribution. The method is theoretically grounded, with provable guarantees for marginal coverage and achieving the smallest prediction size given by Neyman-Pearson . Extensive experimental results demonstrate that CTI achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art conformal regression methods across various datasets, consistently producing smaller prediction sets while maintaining the desired coverage level. The proposed method offers a simple yet effective solution for reliable uncertainty quantification in regression tasks, making it an attractive choice for practitioners seeking accurate and efficient conformal prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Conformalized Interval Arithmetic with Symmetric Calibration

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it traditionally focuses on single predictions. This paper introduces novel conformal prediction methods for estimating the sum or average of unknown labels over specific index sets. We develop conformal prediction intervals for single target to the prediction interval for sum of multiple targets. Under permutation invariant assumptions, we prove the validity of our proposed method. We also apply our algorithms on class average estimation and path cost prediction tasks, and we show that our method outperforms existing conformalized approaches as well as non-conformal approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Structure-Aware Stylized Image Synthesis for Robust Medical Image Segmentation

Accurate medical image segmentation is essential for effective diagnosis and treatment planning but is often challenged by domain shifts caused by variations in imaging devices, acquisition conditions, and patient-specific attributes. Traditional domain generalization methods typically require inclusion of parts of the test domain within the training set, which is not always feasible in clinical settings with limited diverse data. Additionally, although diffusion models have demonstrated strong capabilities in image generation and style transfer, they often fail to preserve the critical structural information necessary for precise medical analysis. To address these issues, we propose a novel medical image segmentation method that combines diffusion models and Structure-Preserving Network for structure-aware one-shot image stylization. Our approach effectively mitigates domain shifts by transforming images from various sources into a consistent style while maintaining the location, size, and shape of lesions. This ensures robust and accurate segmentation even when the target domain is absent from the training data. Experimental evaluations on colonoscopy polyp segmentation and skin lesion segmentation datasets show that our method enhances the robustness and accuracy of segmentation models, achieving superior performance metrics compared to baseline models without style transfer. This structure-aware stylization framework offers a practical solution for improving medical image segmentation across diverse domains, facilitating more reliable clinical diagnoses.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2024

Adaptive Conformal Inference by Particle Filtering under Hidden Markov Models

Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the conformity or nonconformity between predictions and true labels. However, conducting conformal inference for hidden states under hidden Markov models (HMMs) presents a significant challenge, as the hidden state data is unavailable, resulting in the absence of a true label set to serve as a conformal calibration set. This paper proposes an adaptive conformal inference framework that leverages a particle filtering approach to address this issue. Rather than directly focusing on the unobservable hidden state, we innovatively use weighted particles as an approximation of the actual posterior distribution of the hidden state. Our goal is to produce prediction sets that encompass these particles to achieve a specific aggregate weight sum, referred to as the aggregated coverage level. The proposed framework can adapt online to the time-varying distribution of data and achieve the defined marginal aggregated coverage level in both one-step and multi-step inference over the long term. We verify the effectiveness of this approach through a real-time target localization simulation study.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Trustworthy Classification through Rank-Based Conformal Prediction Sets

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of well-calibrated probabilities from modern classification models. We propose a novel conformal prediction method that employs a rank-based score function suitable for classification models that predict the order of labels correctly, even if not well-calibrated. Our approach constructs prediction sets that achieve the desired coverage rate while managing their size. We provide a theoretical analysis of the expected size of the conformal prediction sets based on the rank distribution of the underlying classifier. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method outperforms existing techniques on various datasets, providing reliable uncertainty quantification. Our contributions include a novel conformal prediction method, theoretical analysis, and empirical evaluation. This work advances the practical deployment of machine learning systems by enabling reliable uncertainty quantification.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Proximity Graph Maintenance for Fast Online Nearest Neighbor Search

Approximate Nearest Neighbor (ANN) search is a fundamental technique for (e.g.,) the deployment of recommender systems. Recent studies bring proximity graph-based methods into practitioners' attention -- proximity graph-based methods outperform other solutions such as quantization, hashing, and tree-based ANN algorithm families. In current recommendation systems, data point insertions, deletions, and queries are streamed into the system in an online fashion as users and items change dynamically. As proximity graphs are constructed incrementally by inserting data points as new vertices into the graph, online insertions and queries are well-supported in proximity graph. However, a data point deletion incurs removing a vertex from the proximity graph index, while no proper graph index updating mechanisms are discussed in previous studies. To tackle the challenge, we propose an incremental proximity graph maintenance (IPGM) algorithm for online ANN. IPGM supports both vertex deletion and insertion on proximity graphs. Given a vertex deletion request, we thoroughly investigate solutions to update the connections of the vertex. The proposed updating scheme eliminates the performance drop in online ANN methods on proximity graphs, making the algorithm suitable for practical systems.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2021

Sparse random tensors: Concentration, regularization and applications

We prove a non-asymptotic concentration inequality for the spectral norm of sparse inhomogeneous random tensors with Bernoulli entries. For an order-$k$ inhomogeneous random tensor $T$ with sparsity $p_{\max}\geq \frac{c\log n}{n }$, we show that $\|T-\mathbb E T\|=O(\sqrt{n p_{\max}}\log^{k-2}(n))$ with high probability. The optimality of this bound up to polylog factors is provided by an information theoretic lower bound. By tensor unfolding, we extend the range of sparsity to $p_{\max}\geq \frac{c\log n}{n^{m}}$ with $1\leq m\leq k-1$ and obtain concentration inequalities for different sparsity regimes. We also provide a simple way to regularize $T$ such that $O(\sqrt{n^{m}p_{\max}})$ concentration still holds down to sparsity $p_{\max}\geq \frac{c}{n^{m}}$ with $k/2\leq m\leq k-1$. We present our concentration and regularization results with two applications: (i) a randomized construction of hypergraphs of bounded degrees with good expander mixing properties, (ii) concentration of sparsified tensors under uniform sampling.

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