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arXiv2013

Composite analysis with Monte Carlo methods: an example with cosmic rays and clouds

The composite (superposed epoch) analysis technique has been frequently employed to examine a hypothesized link between solar activity and the Earth's atmosphere, often through an investigation of Forbush decrease (Fd) events (sudden high-magnitude decreases in the flux cosmic rays impinging on the upper-atmosphere lasting up to several days). This technique is useful for isolating low-amplitude signals within data where background variability would otherwise obscure detection. The application of composite analyses to investigate the possible impacts of Fd events involves a statistical examination of time-dependent atmospheric responses to Fds often from aerosol and/or cloud datasets. Despite the publication of numerous results within this field, clear conclusions have yet to be drawn and much ambiguity and disagreement still remain. In this paper, we argue that the conflicting findings of composite studies within this field relate to methodological differences in the manner in which the composites have been constructed and analyzed. Working from an example, we show how a composite may be objectively constructed to maximize signal detection, robustly identify statistical significance, and quantify the lower-limit uncertainty related to hypothesis testing. Additionally, we also demonstrate how a seemingly significant false positive may be obtained from non-significant data by minor alterations to methodological approaches.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2012

On finite-size Lyapunov exponents in multiscale systems

We study the effect of regime switches on finite size Lyapunov exponents (FSLEs) in determining the error growth rates and predictability of multiscale systems. We consider a dynamical system involving slow and fast regimes and switches between them. The surprising result is that due to the presence of regimes the error growth rate can be a non-monotonic function of initial error amplitude. In particular, troughs in the large scales of FSLE spectra is shown to be a signature of slow regimes, whereas fast regimes are shown to cause large peaks in the spectra where error growth rates far exceed those estimated from the maximal Lyapunov exponent. We present analytical results explaining these signatures and corroborate them with numerical simulations. We show further that these peaks disappear in stochastic parametrizations of the fast chaotic processes, and the associated FSLE spectra reveal that large scale predictability properties of the full deterministic model are well approximated whereas small scale features are not properly resolved.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2013

Zonal Flow as Pattern Formation

Zonal flows are well known to arise spontaneously out of turbulence. We show that for statistically averaged equations of the stochastically forced generalized Hasegawa-Mima model, steady-state zonal flows and inhomogeneous turbulence fit into the framework of pattern formation. There are many implications. First, the wavelength of the zonal flows is not unique. Indeed, in an idealized, infinite system, any wavelength within a certain continuous band corresponds to a solution. Second, of these wavelengths, only those within a smaller subband are linearly stable. Unstable wavelengths must evolve to reach a stable wavelength; this process manifests as merging jets.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2013

Beta-plane turbulence: experiments with altimetry

Results from a new series of experiments on barotropic and baroclinic turbulent flows generated in a rotating tank with topographic beta-effect are presented. The velocity fields are measured by the Altimetric Imaging Velocimetry. The turbulent flows observed in the experiments develop zonal jets which are latent in a stationary forced-dissipative regime of the flow but become prominent in the decaying flow. The two-dimensional energy spectra of the flows exhibit the development of anisotropy towards zonal motions. The experiments demonstrate dual turbulent cascade with energy and enstrophy ranges. The frequency-wavenumber spectra reveal the presence of Rossby waves at low wavenumbers which are excited by the turbulent motions. The experimental results are compared with available theory of beta-plane turbulence.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2014

Note on specific chiral ensembles of statistical hydrodynamics: "order function" for transition of turbulence transfer scenarios

Hydrodynamic helicity signatures the parity symmetry breaking, chirality, of the flow. Statistical hydrodynamics thus respect chirality, as symmetry breaking and restoration are key to their fundamentals, such as the spectral transfer direction and its mechanism. Homochiral sub-system of three-dimensional (3D) Navier-Stokes isotropic turbulence has been numerically realized with helical representation technique to present inverse energy cascade [Biferale et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., {\bf 108}, 164501 (2012)]. The situation is analogous to 2D turbulence where inverse energy cascade, or more generally energy-enstrophy dual cascade scenario, was argued with the help of a negative temperature state of the absolute equilibrium by Kraichnan. Indeed, if the helicity in such a system is taken to be positive without loss of generality, a corresponding negative temperature state can be identified [Zhu et al., J. Fluid Mech., {\bf 739}, 479 (2014)]. Here, for some specific chiral ensembles of turbulence, we show with the corresponding absolute equilibria that even if the helicity distribution over wavenumbers is sign definite, different \textit{ansatzes} of the shape function, defined by the ratio between the specific helicity and energy spectra $s(k)=H(k)/E(k)$, imply distinct transfer directions, and we could have inverse-helicity and forward-energy dual transfers (with, say, $s(k)\propto k^{-2}$ resulting in absolute equilibrium modal spectral density of energy $U(k)=\frac{1}{α+βk^{-2}}$, exactly the enstrophy one of two-dimensional Euler by Kraichan), simultaneous forward transfers (with $s(k)=constant$), or even no simply-directed transfer (with, say, non-monotonic $s(k) \propto \sin^2k$), besides the inverse-energy and forward-helicity dual transfers (with, say, $s(k)=k$ as in the homochiral case).

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2011

An exact axisymmetric spiral solution of incompressible 3D Euler equations

Spiral structure is one of the most common structures in the nature flows. A general steady spiral solution of incompressible inviscid axisymmetric flow was obtained analytically by applying separation of variables to the 3D Euler equations. The solution, depending on 3 parameters, describes the spiral path of the fluid material element on the Bernoulli surface, whereas some new exact solutions were obtained to be bounded within the whole region. The first one is a continued typhoon-like vortex solution, where there are two intrinsic length scales. One is the radius of maximum circular velocity $r_m$, the other is the radius of the vortex kernel $r_k=\sqrt{2}r_m$. The second one is a multi-planar solution, periodically in $z$-coordinate. Within each layer, the solution is a umbrella vortex similar to the first one. The third one is also a multi-planar solution in $z$-coordinate. In each layer, it is a combination of two independent solutions like the Rankine vortex, which is also finite but discontinued for either vertical or horizontal velocity. The fourth one is a multi-paraboloid vortex solution finite for $z$-coordinate but infinite for $r$-coordinate. Besides, some classical simple solutions (Rankine vortex, Batchelor vortex, Hill spherical vortex, etc.) were also obtained. The above explicit solutions can be applied to study the radial structure of the typhoon, tornados and mesoscale eddies. Both the solutions and approaches used here could also be applied to other complex flows by the Navier-Stokes equations.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2014

Submesoscale dispersion in the vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon spill

Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity field at the submesoscales (100 meters to tens of kilometers, hours to days) remain unresolved due to a lack of synoptic measurements at these scales. \textcolor{black} {Using high-frequency position data provided by the near-simultaneous release of hundreds of accurately tracked surface drifters, we study the structure of submesoscale surface velocity fluctuations in the Northern Gulf Mexico. Observed two-point statistics confirm the accuracy of classic turbulence scaling laws at 200m$-$50km scales and clearly indicate that dispersion at the submesoscales is \textit{local}, driven predominantly by energetic submesoscale fluctuations.} The results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of deploying large clusters of drifting instruments to provide synoptic observations of spatial variability of the ocean surface velocity field. Our findings allow quantification of the submesoscale-driven dispersion missing in current operational circulation models and satellite altimeter-derived velocity fields.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2018

Rogue Waves and Large Deviations in Deep Sea

The appearance of rogue waves in deep sea is investigated using the modified nonlinear Schrödinger (MNLS) equation in one spatial-dimension with random initial conditions that are assumed to be normally distributed, with a spectrum approximating realistic conditions of a uni-directional sea state. It is shown that one can use the incomplete information contained in this spectrum as prior and supplement this information with the MNLS dynamics to reliably estimate the probability distribution of the sea surface elevation far in the tail at later times. Our results indicate that rogue waves occur when the system hits unlikely pockets of wave configurations that trigger large disturbances of the surface height. The rogue wave precursors in these pockets are wave patterns of regular height but with a very specific shape that is identified explicitly, thereby allowing for early detection. The method proposed here combines Monte Carlo sampling with tools from large deviations theory that reduce the calculation of the most likely rogue wave precursors to an optimization problem that can be solved efficiently. This approach is transferable to other problems in which the system's governing equations contain random initial conditions and/or parameters.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2014

A continuous stream flash evaporator for the calibration of an IR cavity ring down spectrometer for isotopic analysis of water

A new technique for high resolution simultaneous isotopic analysis of $δ^{18}\mathrm{O}$ and $δ\mathrm{D}$ in liquid water is presented. A continuous stream flash evaporator has been designed that is able to vaporise a stream of liquid water in a continuous mode and deliver a stable and finely controlled water vapour sample to a commercially available Infra Red Cavity Ring Down Spectrometer. Injection of sub $μl$ amounts of the liquid water is achieved by pumping liquid water sample through a fused silica capillary and instantaneously vaporising it with a 100% efficiency in a home made oven at a temperature of $170 ^{o}$C. The system's simplicity, low power consumption and low dead volume together with the possibility for automated unattended operation, provides a solution for the calibration of laser instruments performing isotopic analysis of water vapour. Our work is mainly driven by the possibility to perform high resolution on line water isotopic analysis on Continuous Flow Analysis systems typically used to analyze the chemical composition of ice cores drilled in polar regions. In the following we describe the system's precision and stability, sensitivity to varying levels of sample size and we assess the observed memory effects. A test run with standard waters of different isotopic composition is presented, demonstrating the ability to calibrate the spectrometer's measurements on a VSMOW scale with a relatively simple and fast procedure.

physics.ins-det↗

arXiv2014

Hyperviscosity and statistical equilibria of Euler turbulence on the torus and the sphere

Coherent structures such as jets and vortices appear in two-dimensional (2D) turbulence. To gain insight into both numerical simulation and equilibrium statistical mechanical descriptions of 2D Euler flows, the Euler equation with added hyperviscosity is integrated forward in time on the square torus and on the sphere. Coherent structures that form are compared against a hierarchy of truncated Miller-Robert-Sommeria equilibria. The energy-circulation-enstrophy MRS-2 description produces a complete condensation of energy to the largest scales, and in the absence of rotation correctly predicts the number and polarity of coherent vortices. Perturbative imposition of the quartic Casimir constraint improves agreement with numerical simulation by sharpening the cores and transferring some energy to smaller-scale modes. MRS-2 cannot explain qualitative changes due to rotation, but descriptions that conserve higher Casimirs beyond enstrophy have the potential to do so. The result is in agreement with the somewhat paradoxical observation that hyperviscosity helps to remedy the non-conservation of the third and higher Casimirs in numerical simulation. For a rotating sphere, numerical simulation also demonstrates that coherent structures found at late times depend on initial conditions, limiting the usefulness of statistical mechanics.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2013

Characterization of coherent structures in three-dimensional flows using the finite-size Lyapunov exponent

In this paper we use the finite size Lyapunov Exponent (FSLE) to characterize Lagrangian coherent structures in three-dimensional (3d) turbulent flows. Lagrangian coherent structures act as the organizers of transport in fluid flows and are crucial to understand their stirring and mixing properties. Generalized maxima (ridges) of the FSLE fields are used to locate these coherent structures. Three-dimensional FSLE fields are calculated in two phenomenologically distinct turbulent flows: a wall-bounded flow (channel flow) and a regional oceanic flow obtained by numerical solution of the primitive equations where two-dimensional turbulence dominates. In the channel flow, autocorrelations of the FSLE field show that the structure is substantially different from the near wall to the mid-channel region and relates well to the more widely studied Eulerian coherent structure of the turbulent channel flow. The ridges of the FSLE field have complex shapes due to the 3d character of the turbulent fluctuations. In the oceanic flow, strong horizontal stirring is present and the flow regime is similar to that of 2d turbulence where the domain is populated by coherent eddies that interact strongly. This in turn results in the presence of high FSLE lines throughout the domain leading to strong non-local mixing. The ridges of the FSLE field are quasi-vertical surfaces, indicating that the horizontal dynamics dominates the flow. Indeed, due to rotation and stratification, vertical motions in the ocean are much less intense than horizontal ones. This suppression is absent in the channel flow, as the 3d character of the FSLE ridges shows.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2013

Stabilizing Cloud Feedback Dramatically Expands the Habitable Zone of Tidally Locked Planets

The habitable zone (HZ) is the circumstellar region where a planet can sustain surface liquid water. Searching for terrestrial planets in the HZ of nearby stars is the stated goal of ongoing and planned extrasolar planet surveys. Previous estimates of the inner edge of the HZ were based on one-dimensional radiative-convective models. The most serious limitation of these models is the inability to predict cloud behavior. Here we use global climate models with sophisticated cloud schemes to show that due to a stabilizing cloud feedback, tidally locked planets can be habitable at twice the stellar flux found by previous studies. This dramatically expands the HZ and roughly doubles the frequency of habitable planets orbiting red dwarf stars. At high stellar flux, strong convection produces thick water clouds near the substellar location that greatly increase the planetary albedo and reduce surface temperatures. Higher insolation produces stronger substellar convection and therefore higher albedo, making this phenomenon a stabilizing climate feedback. Substellar clouds also effectively block outgoing radiation from the surface, reducing or even completely reversing the thermal emission contrast between dayside and nightside. The presence of substellar water clouds and the resulting clement surface conditions will therefore be detectable with the James Webb Space Telescope.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2014

Fanning out of the $f$-mode in presence of nonuniform magnetic fields

We show that in the presence of a harmonically varying magnetic field the fundamental or $f$-mode in a stratified layer is altered in such a way that it fans out in the diagnostic $kω$ diagram, but with mode power also within the fan. In our simulations, the surface is defined by a temperature and density jump in a piecewise isothermal layer. Unlike our previous work (Singh et al. 2014) where a uniform magnetic field was considered, we employ here a nonuniform magnetic field together with hydromagnetic turbulence at length scales much smaller than those of the magnetic fields. The expansion of the $f$-mode is stronger for fields confined to the layer below the surface. In some of those cases, the $kω$ diagram also reveals a new class of low frequency vertical stripes at multiples of twice the horizontal wavenumber of the background magnetic field. We argue that the study of the $f$-mode expansion might be a new and sensitive tool to determining subsurface magnetic fields with longitudinal periodicity.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

The brightness and spatial distributions of terrestrial radio sources

Faint undetected sources of radio-frequency interference (RFI) might become visible in long radio observations when they are consistently present over time. Thereby, they might obstruct the detection of the weak astronomical signals of interest. This issue is especially important for Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) projects that try to detect the faint redshifted HI signals from the time of the earliest structures in the Universe. We explore the RFI situation at 30-163 MHz by studying brightness histograms of visibility data observed with LOFAR, similar to radio-source-count analyses that are used in cosmology. An empirical RFI distribution model is derived that allows the simulation of RFI in radio observations. The brightness histograms show an RFI distribution that follows a power-law distribution with an estimated exponent around -1.5. With several assumptions, this can be explained with a uniform distribution of terrestrial radio sources whose radiation follows existing propagation models. Extrapolation of the power law implies that the current LOFAR EoR observations should be severely RFI limited if the strength of RFI sources remains strong after time integration. This is in contrast with actual observations, which almost reach the thermal noise and are thought not to be limited by RFI. Therefore, we conclude that it is unlikely that there are undetected RFI sources that will become visible in long observations. Consequently, there is no indication that RFI will prevent an EoR detection with LOFAR.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2013

MOSE: optical turbulence and atmospherical parameters operational forecast at ESO ground-based sites. II: atmospherical parameters in the surface layer [0-30] m

This article is the second of a series of articles aiming at proving the feasibility of the forecast of all the most relevant classical atmospherical parameters for astronomical applications (wind speed and direction, temperature, relative humidity) and the optical turbulence (Cn2 and the derived astro-climatic parameters like seeing, isoplanatic angle, wavefront coherence time...). This study is done in the framework of the MOSE project, and focused above the two ESO ground-bases sites of Cerro Paranal and Cerro Armazones. In this paper we present the results related to the Meso-Nh model ability in reconstructing the surface layer atmospherical parameters (wind speed intensity, wind direction and absolute temperature, [0-30] m a.g.l.). The model reconstruction of all the atmospherical parameters in the surface layer is very satisfactory. For the temperature, at all levels, the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) is inferior to 1°C. For the wind speed, it is ~2 m/s, and for the wind direction, it is in the range [38-46°], at all levels, that corresponds to a RMSE_relative in a range [21-26°]. If a filter is applied for the wind direction (the winds inferior to 3 m/s are discarded from the computations), the wind direction RMSE is in the range [30-41°], i.e. a RMSE_relative in the range [17-23°]. The model operational forecast of the surface layer atmospherical parameters is suitable for different applications, among others: thermalization of the dome using the reconstructed temperature, hours in advance, of the beginning the night; knowing in advance the main direction which the strong winds will come from during the night could allow the astronomer to anticipate the occurrence of a good/bad seeing night, and plan the observations accordingly; preventing adaptive secondary mirrors shake generated by the wind speed.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2013

On the comparison between MASS and G-SCIDAR techniques

The Multi Aperture Scintillation Sensor (MASS) and the Generalized-Scintillation Detection and Ranging (Generalized SCIDAR) are two instruments conceived to measure the optical turbulence (OT) vertical distribution on the whole troposphere and low stratosphere (~ 20 km) widely used in the astronomical context. In this paper we perform a detailed analysis/comparison of measurements provided by the two instruments and taken during the extended site testing campaign carried out on 2007 at Cerro Paranal and promoted by the European Southern Observatory (ESO). The main and final goal of the study is to provide a detailed estimation of the measurements reliability i.e dispersion of turbulence measurements done by the two instruments at different heights above the ground. This information is directly related to our ability in estimating the absolute value of the turbulence stratification. To better analyse the uncertainties between the MASS and the GS we took advantage of the availability of measurements taken during the same campaign by a third independent instrument (DIMM - Differential Imaging Motion Monitor) measuring the integrated turbulence extended on the whole 20 km. Such a cross-check comparison permitted us to define the reliability of the instruments and their measurements, their limits and the contexts in which their use can present some risk.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2018

Exploring exomoon atmospheres with an idealized general circulation model

Recent studies have shown that large exomoons can form in the accretion disks around super-Jovian extrasolar planets. These planets are abundant at about 1 AU from Sun-like stars, which makes their putative moons interesting for studies of habitability. Technological advances could soon make an exomoon discovery with Kepler or the upcoming CHEOPS and PLATO space missions possible. Exomoon climates might be substantially different from exoplanet climates because the day-night cycles on moons are determined by the moon's synchronous rotation with its host planet. Moreover, planetary illumination at the top of the moon's atmosphere and tidal heating at the moon's surface can be substantial, which can affect the redistribution of energy on exomoons. Using an idealized general circulation model with simplified hydrologic, radiative, and convective processes, we calculate surface temperature, wind speed, mean meridional circulation, and energy transport on a 2.5 Mars-mass moon orbiting a 10-Jupiter-mass at 1 AU from a Sun-like star. The strong thermal irradiation from a young giant planet causes the satellite's polar regions to warm, which remains consistent with the dynamically-driven polar amplification seen in Earth models that lack ice-albedo feedback. Thermal irradiation from young, luminous giant planets onto water-rich exomoons can be strong enough to induce water loss on a planet, which could lead to a runaway greenhouse. Moons that are in synchronous rotation with their host planet and do not experience a runaway greenhouse could experience substantial polar melting induced by the polar amplification of planetary illumination and geothermal heating from tidal effects.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise paleoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 +/- 1°C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e., 3-4°C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state-dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapor elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make much of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

physics.ao-ph↗