SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2404.16103

Validating Prior-informed Fisher-matrix Analyses against GWTC Data

Abstract

Fisher-matrix methods are widely used to predict how accurately parameters can be estimated. Being computationally efficient, this approach is prompted by the large number of signals simulated in forecast studies for future gravitational-wave (GW) detectors, for which adequate analysis tools and computational resources are still unavailable to the scientific community. However, approximating the full likelihood function with a Gaussian may lead to inaccuracies, which we investigate in this work. To assess the accuracy of the Fisher approximation, we compare the results of the Fisher code GWFish against real data from the Gravitational Wave Transient Catalogs (GWTCs) provided by the Virgo/LIGO Bayesian analyses. Additionally, we present a sampling algorithm to include priors in GWFish, not only to ensure a fair comparison between GWFish results and the Virgo/LIGO posteriors but also to investigate the role of prior information and to assess the need to include it in standard Fisher analyses. We find that the impact of priors depends mostly on the level of signal-dependent degeneracy of the waveform parameterization, and priors are generally more important when the level of degeneracy is high. Our findings imply that Fisher-matrix methods are a valid tool for ET science-case studies.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Ulyana Dupletsa, Jan Harms, Ken K. Y. Ng, Jacopo Tissino, Filippo Santoliquido, Andrea Cozzumbo. 2024-04-24. Validating Prior-informed Fisher-matrix Analyses against GWTC Data. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevd.111.024036

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc