Identifiability and Observability Analysis for Epidemiological Models: Insights on the SIRS Model

Abstract

The problems of observability and identifiability have been of great interest as previous steps to estimating parameters and initial conditions of dynamical systems to which some known data (observations) are associated. While most works focus on linear and polynomial/rational systems of ODEs, general nonlinear systems have received far less attention and, to the best of our knowledge, no general constructive methodology has been proposed to assess and guarantee parameter and state recoverability in this context. We consider a class of systems of parameterized nonlinear ODEs and some observations, and study if a system of this class is observable, identifiable or jointly observable-identifiable; our goal is to identify its parameters and/or reconstruct the initial condition from the data. To achieve this, we introduce a family of efficient and fully constructive procedures that allow recoverability of the unknowns with low computational cost and address the aforementioned gap. Each procedure is tailored to different observational scenarios and based on the resolution of linear systems. As a case study, we apply these procedures to several epidemic models, with a detailed focus on the SIRS model, demonstrating its joined observability-identifiability when only a portion of the infected individuals is measured, a scenario that has not been studied before. In contrast, for the same observations, the SIR model is observable and identifiable, but not jointly observable-identifiable. This distinction allows us to introduce a novel approach to discriminating between different epidemiological models (SIR vs. SIRS) from short-time data. For these two models, we illustrate the theoretical results through some numerical experiments, validating the approach and highlighting its practical applicability to real-world scenarios.