Accelerated Sequential Posterior Inference via Reuse for Gravitational-Wave Analyses

Abstract

We introduce Accelerated Sequential Posterior Inference via Reuse (ASPIRE), a broadly applicable framework that transforms existing posterior samples and Bayesian evidence estimates into unbiased results under alternative models without rerunning the original analysis. ASPIRE combines normalizing flows with a generalized Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) scheme, enabling efficient updates of existing results and reducing total likelihood evaluations and wall times by factors of up to 5.8 and 5.5, respectively, with larger gains per posterior sample. This addresses a growing problem in gravitational-wave astronomy, where events must be repeatedly reanalyzed under different models or physical hypotheses. We show that ASPIRE reproduces full Bayesian results when switching waveform models or adding physical effects such as spin precession and orbital eccentricity. With this statistical robustness, ASPIRE turns repeated reanalyses into fast, reliable updates-paving the way for systematic studies of waveform systematics, scalable reanalyses across large event catalogs, and broadly applicable Bayesian reanalysis across other scientific domains.