OASIS: Observation-Aware Simulation-Based Inference via Distributional Matching

Abstract

We introduce OASIS, a simulation-based inference framework for scientific settings where observations are distorted by measurement error, selection effects, and other survey-specific transformations. In many real applications, simulators generate latent, noiseless quantities, while the data are observed only after passing through a complex observational pipeline. Standard simulation-based inference methods often ignore this distinction, comparing observations to idealized simulator outputs or relying on low-dimensional summaries that can miss important structure. OASIS addresses this mismatch by explicitly embedding the observation model into the simulator and performing inference directly at the level of observed-data distributions. The method constructs a pseudo-posterior by reweighting prior samples according to a maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) loss between the empirical distributions of the observed data and forward-simulated observations, thereby avoiding both handcrafted summaries and learned neural surrogates. We provide theoretical guarantees for Monte Carlo consistency, convergence of the empirical pseudo-posterior to its population counterpart, and posterior concentration on the MMD-identified parameter set, with consistency for the true parameter under correct specification and identifiability. In controlled errors-in-variables regression experiments, OASIS delivers robust parameter recovery and well-calibrated uncertainty under heterogeneous and non-Gaussian measurement noise. We then demonstrate the method on a realistic cosmological application involving galaxy cluster observations across multiple wavelengths, in which latent physical properties are linked to observables through nonlinear scaling relations, heteroscedastic errors, selection functions, and incomplete coverage.