Realization Variance of Gravitational Wave Background Anisotropies from Shot Noise for Pulsar Timing Arrays

Abstract

Shot-noise anisotropies in the nHz gravitational wave background (GWB) are a promising target for pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). If the nHz GWB is sourced by merging supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), as current evidence suggests, the shot-noise signal is expected to be large, potentially of order unity at observing frequencies of $f \sim 1 \, \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. In this regime, the signal is dominated by rare bright binaries, and Poisson fluctuations in the discrete SMBHB population produce significant spatial anisotropies. Here, we use Monte Carlo simulations to model the realization-to-realization scatter in the shot-noise, sampling from empirically calibrated models of the SMBHB source populations. We find that the probability distribution of shot-noise amplitudes is broad, spanning a factor of $\sim 50$ (95\% interval) at fixed frequency, with a long tail towards high amplitudes. The most probable and median amplitudes lie significantly below the ensemble means by factors of $\sim 2-3$, implying that the shot-noise in typical realizations is smaller than the mean. The ensemble-averaged shot-noise also differs from simple estimates based on moments of the strain, $\langle h^4 \rangle/\langle h^2 \rangle^2$, because the average of a ratio is not equal to the ratio of the averages (i.e., $\langle X/Y \rangle \ne \langle X \rangle/\langle Y \rangle$). This difference is a factor of $\sim 3$ at $f = 0.1 \, \rm{yr}^{-1}$, growing to larger than two orders of magnitude by $f \sim 1 \, \rm{yr}^{-1}$, where the GWB is dominated by low abundance, high-strain sources. Shot-noise nevertheless provides a powerful diagnostic for understanding the GWB and SMBHB populations; interpreting PTA measurements, however, requires modeling its full probability distribution.