Controversy and Group Certainty Jointly Shape Everyday Moral Judgments

Abstract

Everyday moral life rarely resembles a trolley problem. It involves disputes about families, relationships, work, money, and care, situations in which people often encounter the judgments of others. We examined how judgments about nuanced interpersonal dilemmas respond to social information that conveys collective opinion without revealing the arguments behind it. Specifically, we studied two signals: controversy, the extent to which community judgments are divided between two opposing verdicts; and group certainty, the confidence expressed by each side. We derived these signals from 54,827 judgments on 135 dilemmas posted to Reddit's r/AmItheAsshole and presented them separately or together in a preregistered randomized experiment (N = 2,159). Relative to the control condition, all three treatments increased both weakening, a changed verdict or reduced confidence, and strengthening, increased confidence without a verdict change. Thus, aggregated social information can reshape moral judgments even without arguments. Controversy alone tripled the weakening rate, from 5.3% to 15.9%. Shown alone, certainty on either side was associated with movement toward that side. Shown alongside controversy, only like-minded certainty remained clearly associated with less weakening. This asymmetry of influence is double-edged: the confidence of like-minded others may help minorities resist majority pressure, but it may also insulate mistaken judgments from correction.