Markov chain Monte Carlo for predictively oriented posteriors

Yann McLatchie; Louis Sharrock; David T. Frazier; Jeremias Knoblauch

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arXiv · 2610.01818

Markov chain Monte Carlo for predictively oriented posteriors

Yann McLatchie·Louis Sharrock·David T. Frazier·Jeremias Knoblauch

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Abstract

The predictively oriented posterior offers principled uncertainty quantification, even under model misspecification. However, it does not admit an explicit density and therefore cannot be computed using classical Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. We remedy this by deriving an approximation to the predictively oriented posterior whose density can be evaluated point-wise, and whose approximation error decays rapidly. These results are illustrated on case studies from epidemiology, spatial statistics, and low-energy nuclear physics.

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Yann McLatchie, Louis Sharrock, David T. Frazier, Jeremias Knoblauch. 2026-10-01. Markov chain Monte Carlo for predictively oriented posteriors. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.01818

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