Quantum machine learning geospatial time-series by seasonal encoding

Abstract

Quantum data reuploading models can increase the expressive capacity of variational quantum models, but do not necessarily improve predictive performance. In the present work, we investigate this behavior for seasonal time series forecasting and show that data encoding determines how well temporal structures are represented as circuit depth increases. We develop a fidelity-based quantum geometric description in which repeated encodings contribute to an effective input generator, so that reuploading depth changes the quantum geometry through which approximately recurrent inputs are distinguished. We construct fixed and adaptive seasonal encodings that represent observation magnitude and seasonal phase in distinct Bloch-sphere coordinates. We evaluate these encodings for monthly precipitation derived from ERA5-Land, a global reanalysis dataset, from a representative semi-arid, drought-prone tropical region in East Africa, using a 14-month lag window and reuploading depths $L$= 1-6. We find that in ideal simulations, standard value-based encodings degrade markedly with depth, whereas adaptive seasonal encodings preserve temporal correlation, spectral structure, and forecasting accuracy. Noisy simulations show that this encoding hierarchy persists at shallow and intermediate depths, while larger depths are limited by circuit noise and optimization difficulty. The seasonal quantum models remain competitive with established classical forecasting methods (ARIMA, random forests, and LSTMs). These results identify structure-aware quantum data encoding as a general strategy for building deeper quantum reuploading models.