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Christoffer Fremling

Publications and source records attributed to Christoffer Fremling.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Low-Luminosity Type IIP Supernovae from the Zwicky Transient Facility Census of the Local Universe. III: Hunting for electron-capture supernovae using nebular spectroscopy

Electron-capture supernovae (ECSNe) may arise from ONeMg-core collapse in super-asymptotic giant branch (sAGB) stars near the low-mass core-collapse limit ($\approx\!8$--$10$\,\Msun). At early times, models predict that ECSNe resemble low-mass red supergiant iron-core-collapse SNe (FeCCSNe), making the two channels difficult to distinguish. Nebular spectroscopy, however, can reveal differences in ejecta composition. We present a systematic sample of nebular spectra of 19 low-luminosity Type IIP (LLIIP) SNe from the ZTF CLU survey, obtained 115$-$450\,d after explosion. Their low velocities expose narrow lines blended in brighter SNe, which we identify and model to constrain progenitor properties. We find a strong correlation between the FWHM of H\,\textsc{i}\,$λ$6563 and peak luminosity, showing that LLIIP SNe occupy the low-energy end of the core-collapse population, but no correlation with plateau duration, suggesting that envelope and core properties are not tightly linked. Only one SN reaches the extremely low H\,\textsc{i}\,$λ$6563 widths predicted for the weakest $\sim$9\,M$_\odot$ explosion models, implying that such low-energy events are intrinsically rare. Combining our sample with 118 literature nebular spectra of Type II SNe, we infer an IMF slope of $2.1\pm1.2$. We also introduce an `ECSN score'' based on the absence of He- and O-shell emission lines, and identify two plausible ECSN candidates, SN~2023bvj and SN~2024btj. However, neither shows the extremely narrow nebular lines predicted by current ECSN models. If ECSNe arise predominantly through the LLIIP channel, we infer an upper limit on the ECSN rate of $\lesssim (5$--$8)\times10^{2}\,\mathrm{Gpc^{-3}\,yr^{-1}}$, corresponding to a narrow sAGB progenitor mass window of $ΔM_{\rm sAGB} \lesssim 0.02$--$0.06\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$.

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Electromagnetic Follow-up of the Sub-Solar Mass Gravitational Wave Candidate S251112cm: Kilonova Constraints and a Coincident IIb Supernova

On November 12th, 2025 the LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA (LVK) collaboration reported gravitational waves (GWs) from a compact object merger candidate (S251112cm) with at least one sub-solar mass component. Using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam), the Fraunhofer Telescope at Wendelstein Observatory (FTW), and the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), we surveyed $56\%$ of the GW localization region beginning $2.4$~hours after the GW alert. We find no kilonova (KN) counterpart, and use radiative-transfer models to rule out $42\%$ (ZTF), $68\%$ (DECam), and $92\%$ (FTW) of the KN models as possible emission from this GW candidate. Within the recently proposed disk-fragmentation (``superkilonova'') model for generating sub-solar mass neutron star mergers from stellar core-collapse, the delay between the supernova explosion time and the GW merger time is estimated to be less than a few days. Searching this time window prior to the GW event, we identify and spectroscopically classify a IIb supernova (SN~2025adtq), with a spatial association odds ratio of $\log_{10}\mathcal{I} \approx 4.8$, a chance coincidence probability of ${\sim}2$--$9\%$, and an estimated explosion time ${\sim}2$ days prior to S251112cm. SN~2025adtq is the second Type~IIb supernova found in spatial and temporal coincidence with a sub-solar mass GW candidate, following the previously reported S250818k/SN~2025ulz association; jointly, we measure an odds ratio that favors the association hypothesis over the null, however, when conditioned on finding a coincident supernova by chance, the odds ratio disfavors association. Together, these results provide suggestive but inconclusive evidence for the superkilonova formation channel.

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AT2024wpp: An Extremely Luminous Fast Ultraviolet Transient Powered by Accretion onto a Black Hole

We present the discovery of AT 2024wpp ("Whippet"), a fast and luminous 18cow-like transient. At a redshift of z=0.0868, revealed by Keck Cosmic Web Imager spectroscopy of its faint star-forming host, it is the fourth-nearest example of its class to date. Rapid identification of the source in the Zwicky Transient Facility data stream permitted ultraviolet-through-optical observations to be obtained prior to peak, allowing the first determination of the peak bolometric luminosity (2x10^45 erg/s), maximum photospheric radius (10^15 cm), and total radiated energy (10^51 erg) of an 18cow-like object. We present results from a comprehensive multiwavelength observing campaign, including a far-UV spectrum from the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope and deep imaging extending >100 days post-explosion from the Very Large Telescope, Hubble Space Telescope, Very Large Array, and Atacama Large Millimetre Array. We interpret the observations under a model in which a rapidly-accreting central engine blows a fast (~0.2c) wind into the surrounding medium and irradiates it with X-rays. The high Doppler velocities and intense ionization within this wind prevent identifiable spectroscopic features from appearing in the ejecta or in the surrounding circumstellar material. Weak H and He signatures do emerge in the spectra after 35 days in the form of double-peaked narrow lines. Each peak is individually narrow (full width ~3000 km/s) but the two components are separated by ~6600 km/s, indicating stable structures of denser material, possibly representing streams of tidal ejecta or an ablated companion star.

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A Natural $\gtrsim 100\times$ Telescope: Discovery of the Strongly Lensed Type II SN 2025mkn at $z=1.37$

We present the discovery of SN 2025mkn, a gravitationally lensed Type II supernova. First detected as a blue transient in ZTF, 0.83$^{\prime\prime}$ from a $z=0.42$ elliptical galaxy, follow-up SNIFS/UH2.2m and LRIS/Keck spectra revealed absorption lines at $z=1.371$. Later JWST NIRCam imaging shows that the bright transient is a close pair of point sources separated by $\sim 0.07^{\prime\prime}$, and a 30 times fainter counterimage opposite the lens, for which NIRSpec reveals strong H$α$ emission also at $z=1.371$. The light curves and spectra are consistent with the Type II supernova source being magnified $\gtrsim 100$ times, with $\sim 250$ required to reconcile its luminosity with that of nearby events such as SN 2023ixf. Lens models are consistent with such high magnifications, and always show that the faint image arrived first (undetected in earlier ZTF imaging), consistent with the later spectral phase of this fainter image. A fourth image is also predicted and possibly detected in the NIRSpec data. Light-curve-based time-delay measurements are not possible due to the first image being the faintest; however, the resolved NIRSpec spectra offer a future opportunity for time-delay cosmography through supernova phase measurements.

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Pre-training vision models for the classification of alerts from wide-field time-domain surveys

Modern wide-field time-domain surveys facilitate the study of transient, variable and moving phenomena by conducting image differencing and relaying alerts to their communities. Machine learning tools have been used on data from these surveys and their precursors for more than a decade, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), which make predictions directly from input images, saw particularly broad adoption through the 2010s. Since then, continually rapid advances in computer vision have transformed the standard practices around using such models. It is now commonplace to use standardized architectures pre-trained on large corpora of everyday images (e.g., ImageNet). In contrast, time-domain astronomy studies still typically design custom CNN architectures and train them from scratch. Here, we explore the effects of adopting various pre-training regimens and standardized model architectures on the performance of alert classification. We find that the resulting models match or outperform a custom, specialized CNN like what is typically used for filtering alerts. Moreover, our results show that pre-training on galaxy images from Galaxy Zoo tends to yield better performance than pre-training on ImageNet or training from scratch. We observe that the design of standardized architectures are much better optimized than the custom CNN baseline, requiring significantly less time and memory for inference despite having more trainable parameters. On the eve of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time and other image-differencing surveys, these findings advocate for a paradigm shift in the creation of vision models for alerts, demonstrating that greater performance and efficiency, in time and in data, can be achieved by adopting the latest practices from the computer vision field.

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SuperSNEC: Fast and Accurate Light Curve Production for Large Hydrodynamic Model Grids Using Adaptive Gridding

We present SuperSNEC, an accelerated version of the SuperNova Explosion Code (SNEC) designed for rapid production of large radiation-hydrodynamic model grids using low-zone-count simulations ($\sim100$ zones). The main advance is adaptive gridding of the computational grid, which preserves light-curve fidelity relative to a high-resolution SNEC baseline ($\sim1000$ zones) while delivering a runtime improvement of ${\sim}420\times$. SuperSNEC also includes solver optimizations, optimized radioactive-energy deposition and ray-tracing, improved $^{56}$Ni mixing controls, and a smooth photosphere luminosity correction that suppresses low-resolution artifacts. We quantify the speed-accuracy trade-off for a 100-zone configuration against a 1000-zone reference and define baseline settings for efficient large-grid inference of stripped-envelope supernovae. Our optimized 100-zone setup achieves an RMS light-curve residual of $0.022$ mag relative to the 1000-zone reference, at a runtime of $<2$ seconds per model. Applied to SN 2011dh (Type IIb), SN~1993J (Type IIb), and SN 2020oi (Type Ic), SuperSNEC recovers light-curve parameters consistent with the literature; in particular, SN 2020oi is well reproduced by a purely radioactive model, with no clear evidence that an additional power source is required.

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Photometry and Spectroscopy of SN 2024pxl: A Luminosity Link Among Type Iax Supernovae

We present extensive ultraviolet to optical photometric and optical to near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic follow-up observations of the nearby intermediate-luminosity ($M_V = -16.81\pm0.19$~mag) Type Iax supernova (SN) 2024pxl in NGC 6384. SN~2024pxl exhibits a faster light curve than the high-luminosity members of this class, and slower than low-luminosity events. The observationally well-constrained rise time of $\sim$11 days and an estimated synthesized $^{56}$Ni mass of 0.03\, M$_\odot$, based on analytical modeling of the integrated spectral energy distribution light curve, are consistent with models of the weak deflagration of a carbon-oxygen white dwarf. Our optical spectral sequence of SN~2024pxl shows weak \ion{Si}{2} lines and spectral evolution similar to other high-luminosity Type Iax SNe, but also a prominent early-time \ion{C}{2} line, like lower-luminosity Type Iax SNe. The late-time optical spectrum of SN~2024pxl closely matches that of SN~2014dt, and its NIR spectral evolution aligns with that of other well-studied, high-luminosity Type Iax SNe. The spectral-line expansion velocities of SN~2024pxl are at the lower end of the Type Iax SN velocity distribution, and the velocity distribution of iron-group elements compared to intermediate-mass elements suggests that the ejecta are mixed on large scales, as expected in pure deflagration models. SN~2024pxl exhibits characteristics intermediate between those of high-luminosity and low-luminosity Type~Iax SNe, further establishing a link across this diverse class.

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AT2019cmw: A highly luminous, cooling featureless TDE candidate from the disruption of a high mass star in an early-type galaxy

We present optical/UV photometric and spectroscopic observations, as well as X-ray and radio follow-up, of the extraordinary event AT2019cmw. With a peak bolometric luminosity of ~$\mathrm{10^{45.6}\,erg\,s^{-1}}$, it is one of the most luminous thermal transients ever discovered. Extensive spectroscopic follow-up post-peak showed only a featureless continuum throughout its evolution. This, combined with its nuclear location, blue colour at peak and lack of prior evidence of an AGN in its host lead us to interpret this event as a `featureless' tidal disruption event (TDE). It displays photometric evolution atypical of most TDEs, cooling from ~30 kK to ~10 kK in the first ~300 days post-peak, with potential implications for future photometric selection of candidate TDEs. No X-ray or radio emission is detected, placing constraints on the presence of on-axis jetted emission or a visible inner-accretion disk. Modelling the optical light curve with existing theoretical prescriptions, we find that AT2019cmw may be the result of the disruption of a star in the tens of solar masses by a supermassive black hole (SMBH). Combined with a lack of detectable star formation in its host galaxy, it could imply the existence of a localised region of star formation around the SMBH. This could provide a new window to probe nuclear star formation and the shape of the initial mass function (IMF) in close proximity to SMBHs out to relatively high redshifts.

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Ultraviolet Spectral Evidence for Ansky as a Slowly Evolving Featureless Tidal Disruption Event with Quasiperiodic Eruptions

X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are rare and enigmatic phenomena that increasingly show a connection to tidal disruption events (TDEs). However, the recently discovered QPEs in ZTF19acnskyy ("Ansky") appear to be linked to an active galactic nucleus (AGN) rather than a TDE, as their slow decay and AGN-like variability differ markedly from that of typical TDEs. This finding may imply broader formation channels for QPEs. To further investigate Ansky's nature, we obtained a timely ultraviolet (UV) spectrum, which reveals a featureless, TDE-like spectrum devoid of broad optical or UV emission lines. Additionally, the steep UV continuum, fitted by a power law with an index of -2.6, aligns more closely with TDEs than with AGNs. Compared to other featureless TDEs, Ansky exhibits a significantly lower blackbody luminosity (10^43 erg s^-1) and much longer rise and decay timescales, suggesting a distinct TDE subclass. An offset TDE involving an intermediate-mass black hole is unlikely, given its position consistent with the galactic center with a 3 sigma upper limit of 54 pc. Instead, we propose that Ansky may result from the tidal disruption of a post-main-sequence star by a typical supermassive black hole. Our findings strengthen the growing evidence for TDE-QPE associations, although other formation channels for QPEs remain plausible and await future observational efforts.

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ZTF25abjmnps (AT2025ulz) and S250818k: A Candidate Superkilonova from a Sub-threshold Sub-Solar Gravitational Wave Trigger

On August 18, 2025, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration reported gravitational waves from a sub-threshold binary neutron star merger. If astrophysical, this event would have a surprisingly low chirp mass, suggesting that at least one neutron star was below a solar mass. The Zwicky Transient Facility mapped the coarse localization and discovered a transient, ZTF25abjmnps (AT2025ulz), that was spatially and temporally coincident with the gravitational wave trigger. The first week of follow-up suggested properties reminiscent of a GW170817-like kilonova. Subsequent follow-up suggests properties most similar to a young, stripped-envelope, Type IIb supernova. Although we cannot statistically rule out chance coincidence, we undertake due diligence analysis to explore the possible association between ZTF25abjmnps and S250818k. Theoretical models have been proposed wherein sub-solar neutron star(s) may form (and subsequently merge) via accretion disk fragmentation or core fission inside a core-collapse supernova i.e. a ``superkilonova". Here, we qualitatively discuss our multi-wavelength dataset in the context of the superkilonova picture. Future higher significance gravitational wave detections of sub-solar neutron star mergers with extensive electromagnetic follow-up would conclusively resolve this tantalizing multi-messenger association.

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An optical to infrared study of type II SN2024ggi at nebular times

We present 0.3-21mic observations at ~275d and ~400d for Type II supernova (SN) 2024ggi, combining ground-based optical and near-infrared data from the Keck I/II telescopes and space-based infrared data from the James Webb Space Telescope. Although the optical regions dominate the observed flux, SN2024ggi is bright at infrared wavelengths (65%/35% falls each side of 1mic). SN2024ggi exhibits a plethora of emission lines from H, He, intermediate-mass elements (O, Na, Mg, S, Ar, Ca), and iron-group elements (IGEs; Fe, Co, and Ni) -- all lines have essentially the same width, suggesting efficient macroscopic chemical mixing of the inner ejecta at <~2000km/s and little mixing of 56Ni at larger velocities. Molecular emission in the infrared range is dominated by the CO fundamental, which radiates about 5% of the total SN luminosity. A molecule-free radiative-transfer model based on a standard red-supergiant star explosion (i.e., ~1e51erg, 0.06Msun of 56Ni from a 15.2Msun progenitor) yields a satisfactory match throughout the optical and infrared at both epochs. The SN2024ggi CO luminosity is comparable to the fractional decay-power absorbed in the model C/O-rich shell -- accounting for CO cooling would likely resolve the model overestimate of the [OI]0.632mic flux. The relative weakness of the molecular emission in SN2024ggi and the good overall match obtained with our molecule-free model suggests negligible microscopic mixing -- about 95% of the SN luminosity is radiated by atoms and ions. Lines from IGEs, which form from explosion ashes at such late times, are ideal diagnostics of the magnitude of 56Ni mixing in core-collapse SN ejecta. Stable Ni, clearly identified in SN2024ggi (e.g., [NiII]6.634mic), is probably a common product of massive-star explosions.

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Discovery of SN 2025wny: a Strongly Gravitationally Lensed Superluminous Supernova at z = 2.01

We present the discovery of SN 2025wny (ZTF25abnjznp/GOTO25gtq) and spectroscopic classification of this event as the first gravitationally lensed Type I superluminous supernovae (SLSN-I). Deep ground-based follow-up observations resolves four images of the supernova with ~1.7" angular separation from the main lens galaxy, each coincident with the lensed images of a background galaxy seen in archival imaging of the field. Spectroscopy of the brightest point image shows narrow features matching absorption lines at a redshift of z = 2.011 and broad features matching those seen in superluminous SNe with Far-UV coverage. We infer a magnification factor of 20 to 50 for the brightest image in the system, based on photometric and spectroscopic comparisons to other SLSNe-I. SN 2025wny demonstrates that gravitationally-lensed SNe are in reach of ground-based facilities out to redshifts far higher than what has been previously assumed, and provide a unique window into studying distant supernovae, internal properties of dwarf galaxies, as well as for time-delay cosmography.

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JWST and Ground-based Observations of the Type Iax Supernovae SN 2024pxl and SN 2024vjm: Evidence for Weak Deflagration Explosions

We present panchromatic optical $+$ near-infrared (NIR) $+$ mid-infrared (MIR) observations of the intermediate-luminosity Type Iax supernova (SN Iax) 2024pxl and the extremely low-luminosity SN Iax 2024vjm. JWST observations provide unprecedented MIR spectroscopy of SN Iax, spanning from $+$11 to $+$42 days past maximum light. We detect forbidden emission lines in the MIR at these early times while the optical and NIR are dominated by permitted lines with an absorption component. Panchromatic spectra at early times can thus simultaneously show nebular and photospheric lines, probing both inner and outer layers of the ejecta. We identify spectral lines not seen before in SN Iax, including [Mg II] 4.76 $μ$m, [Mg II] 9.71 $μ$m, [Ne II] 12.81 $μ$m, and isolated O I 2.76 $μ$m that traces unburned material. Forbidden emission lines of all species are centrally peaked with similar kinematic distributions, indicating that the ejecta are well mixed in both SN 2024pxl and SN 2024vjm, a hallmark of pure deflagration explosion models. Radiative transfer modeling of SN 2024pxl shows good agreement with a weak deflagration of a near-Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf, but additional IR flux is needed to match the observations, potentially attributable to a surviving remnant. Similarly, we find SN 2024vjm is also best explained by a weak deflagration model, despite the large difference in luminosity between the two supernovae. Future modeling should push to even weaker explosions and include the contribution of a bound remnant. Our observations demonstrate the diagnostic power of panchromatic spectroscopy for unveiling explosion physics in thermonuclear supernovae.

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SN 2023gpw: exploring the diversity and power sources of hydrogen-rich superluminous supernovae

We present our observations and analysis of SN 2023gpw, a hydrogen-rich superluminous supernova (SLSN II) with broad emission lines in its post-peak spectra. Unlike previously observed SLSNe II, its light curve suggests an abrupt drop during a solar conjunction between ~80 and ~180 d after the light-curve peak, possibly analogous to a normal hydrogen-rich supernova (SN). Spectra taken at and before the peak show hydrogen and helium `flash' emission lines attributed to early interaction with a dense confined circumstellar medium (CSM). A well-observed ultraviolet excess appears as these lines disappear, also as a result of CSM interaction. The blackbody photosphere expands roughly at the same velocity throughout the observations, indicating little or no bulk deceleration. This velocity is much higher than what is seen in spectral lines, suggesting asymmetry in the ejecta. The high total radiated energy ($\gtrsim9\times10^{50}$ erg) and aforementioned lack of bulk deceleration in SN 2023gpw are difficult to reconcile with a neutrino-driven SN simply combined with efficient conversion from kinetic energy to emission through interaction. This suggests an additional energy source such as a central engine. While magnetar-powered models qualitatively similar to SN 2023gpw exist, more modeling work is required to determine if they can reproduce the observed properties in combination with early interaction. The required energy might alternatively be provided by accretion onto a black hole created in the collapse of a massive progenitor star.

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SN 2023xgo: Helium-rich Type Icn or Carbon-Flash Type Ibn supernova?

We present observations of SN~2023xgo, a transitional Type Ibn/Icn supernova, from $-5.6$ to $+63$~days relative to the $r$-band peak. Early spectra show C~III $λ5696$ emission reminiscent of Type~Icn SNe, which later gives way to Type~Ibn features. The He~I velocities ($1800$--$10{,}000$~km~s$^{-1}$) and pseudo-equivalent widths are among the highest in the Ibn/Icn class. The light curve declines at $0.14$~mag~d$^{-1}$ until $+30$~days, consistent with SNe~Ibn/Icn and slower than fast transients. SN~2023xgo is the faintest in our SN~Ibn sample ($M_r=-17.65\pm0.04$) but shows typical color and host properties. Semi-analytical modeling of the light curve suggests a compact CSM shell ($\sim 10^{12}$--$10^{13}$~cm) and a mass-loss rate of $10^{-4}$--$10^{-3}$~$M_{\odot}$~yr$^{-1}$, with CSM and ejecta masses of $\sim 0.22$ and $0.12$~$M_{\odot}$, respectively. Post-maximum light-curve and spectral modeling favor a $\sim 3$~$M_{\odot}$ helium-star progenitor with extended ($\sim 10^{15}$~cm), stratified CSM (density exponent $n=2.9$) and a mass-loss rate of $0.1$--$2.7$~$M_{\odot}$~yr$^{-1}$. These two mass-loss regimes imply a radially varying CSM, shaped by asymmetry or temporal changes in the progenitor's mass loss. This behavior is compatible with both binary and single-star evolution. We argue that the early Icn-like features arise from hot carbon ionization and fade to Ibn-like signatures as the ejecta and CSM cool, making SN~2023xgo a rare probe of the connection between SNe~Icn, SNe~Ibn, and Ibn events with ejecta signatures.

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A magnetic white dwarf formed through a binary merger within 35 million years

White dwarfs (WDs) represent the final evolutionary stage of most stars, typically originating from progenitor stars with masses below approximately 8 $M_{\odot}$ to 10 $M_{\odot}$. Formation through single-star evolution generally requires at least 25 Myr, with the youngest WDs often near the Chandrasekhar limit of 1.4 $M_{\odot}$. In contrast, WDs formed via binary channels, such as mergers or mass transfer, can develop smaller masses in a shorter timescale and may exhibit unique characteristics, including strong surface magnetic fields and rapid rotation. Accurately determining the ages of these WDs is essential for understanding their formation. A valuable method involves studying WDs in star clusters, where member stars share the same age and chemical composition, allowing for precise constraints on the formation times and metallicities of the WDs' progenitors. Here we report a WD found in the open cluster RSG 5, which is only 35 Myr old. The WD's mass is lower than 1.05 $M_{\odot}$, indicating it may not have formed through single-star evolution. The WD possesses an exceptionally strong surface magnetic field ($\ge 200$ MG), a short rotational period ($\sim 6.5$ min), and, most notably, a co-rotating half-ring of ionized circumstellar debris. This distinctive feature provides evidence for a binary merger origin, a scenario further substantiated by our stellar evolution models.

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SN 2023uqf: An Interacting Supernova Coincident with a High-Energy Neutrino

Astrophysical high-energy (TeV-PeV) neutrinos were first discovered in 2013, but their origin remains largely unknown. Here we present SN 2023uqf, a supernova found in coincidence with high-energy neutrino IC231004A, as part of a systematic optical follow-up program with the Zwicky Transient Facility. SN 2023uqf had a luminous and rapidly-evolving lightcurve, and spectroscopic observations indicated that the source was a Type Ibn supernova. Spectroscopic signatures confirm ongoing interaction between the supernova ejecta and a dense circumstellar medium, as expected for high-energy neutrino production in a core-collapse supernova. Given the rare nature of Type Ibn supernovae, SN 2023uqf is unlikely to have been discovered by chance over the course of our program (p=0.3%). Our discovery of SN 2023uqf provides the first observational evidence to support long-held theories that interacting supernovae can serve as cosmic hadron accelerators.

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Inferring CSM Properties of Type II SNe Using a Magnitude-Limited ZTF Sample

Although all Type II supernovae (SNe) originate from massive stars possessing a hydrogen-rich envelope, their light curve morphology is diverse, reflecting poorly characterised heterogeneity in the physical properties of their progenitor systems. Here, we present a detailed light curve analysis of a magnitude-limited sample of 639 Type II SNe from the Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey. Using Gaussian processes, we systematically measure empirical light curve features (e.g. rise times, peak colours and luminosities) in a robust sampling-independent manner. We focus on rise times as they are highly sensitive to pre-explosion progenitor properties, especially the presence of a dense circumstellar medium (CSM) shed by the progenitor in the years immediately pre-explosion. By correlating our feature measurements with physical parameters from an extensive grid of STELLA hydrodynamical models with varying progenitor properties (CSM structure, $\dot M$, $R_{CSM}$ and $M_{ZAMS}$), we quantify the proportion of events with sufficient pre-explosion mass-loss to significantly alter the initial light curve (roughly $M_{CSM} \geq 10^{-2.5} M_{\odot}$) in a highly complete sample of 377 spectroscopically classified Type II SNe. We find that 67 $\pm$ 6\% of observed SNe in our magnitude-limited sample show evidence for substantial CSM ($M_{CSM} \geq 10^{-2.5} M_{\odot}$) close to the progenitor ($R_{CSM} <10^{15}$ cm) at the time of explosion. After applying a volumetric-correction, we find 36$^{+5}_{-7}$\% of all Type II SN progenitors possess substantial CSM within $10^{15}$ cm at the time of explosion. This high fraction of progenitors with dense CSM, supported by photometric and spectroscopic evidence of previous SNe, reveals mass-loss rates significantly exceeding those measured in local group red supergiants or predicted by current theoretical models.

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