arXiv subjects

Esteban Moro

Publications and source records attributed to Esteban Moro.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

The unequal effects of the health-economy tradeoff during the COVID-19 pandemic

The potential tradeoff between health outcomes and economic impact has been a major challenge in the policy making process during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic-economic models designed to address this issue are either too aggregate to consider heterogeneous outcomes across socio-economic groups, or, when sufficiently fine-grained, not well grounded by empirical data. To fill this gap, we introduce a data-driven, granular, agent-based model that simulates epidemic and economic outcomes across industries, occupations, and income levels with geographic realism. The key mechanism coupling the epidemic and economic modules is the reduction in consumption demand due to fear of infection. We calibrate the model to the first wave of COVID-19 in the New York metropolitan area, showing that it reproduces key epidemic and economic statistics, and then examine counterfactual scenarios. We find that: (a) both high fear of infection and strict restrictions similarly harm the economy but reduce infections; (b) low-income workers bear the brunt of both the economic and epidemic harm; (c) closing non-customer-facing industries such as manufacturing and construction only marginally reduces the death toll while considerably increasing unemployment; and (d) delaying the start of protective measures does little to help the economy and worsens epidemic outcomes in all scenarios. We anticipate that our model will help designing effective and equitable non-pharmaceutical interventions that minimize disruptions in the face of a novel pandemic.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Identifying latent activity behaviors and lifestyles using mobility data to describe urban dynamics

Urbanization and its problems require an in-depth and comprehensive understanding of urban dynamics, especially the complex and diversified lifestyles in modern cities. Digitally acquired data can accurately capture complex human activity, but it lacks the interpretability of demographic data. In this paper, we study a privacy-enhanced dataset of the mobility visitation patterns of 1.2 million people to 1.1 million places in 11 metro areas in the U.S. to detect the latent mobility behaviors and lifestyles in the largest American cities. Despite the considerable complexity of mobility visitations, we found that lifestyles can be automatically decomposed into only 12 latent interpretable activity behaviors on how people combine shopping, eating, working, or using their free time. Rather than describing individuals with a single lifestyle, we find that city dwellers' behavior is a mixture of those behaviors. Those detected latent activity behaviors are equally present across cities and cannot be fully explained by main demographic features. Finally, we find those latent behaviors are associated with dynamics like experienced income segregation, transportation, or healthy behaviors in cities, even after controlling for demographic features. Our results signal the importance of complementing traditional census data with activity behaviors to understand urban dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Diversity beyond density: experienced social mixing of urban streets

Urban density, in the form of residents' and visitors' concentration, is long considered to foster diverse exchanges of interpersonal knowledge and skills, which are intrinsic to sustainable human settlements. However, with current urban studies primarily devoted to city and district-level analysis, we cannot unveil the elemental connection between urban density and diversity. Here we use an anonymized and privacy-enhanced mobile data set of 0.5 million opted-in users from three metropolitan areas in the U.S to show that at the scale of urban streets, density is not the only path to diversity. We represent the diversity of each street with the Experienced Social Mixing (ESM), which describes the chances of people meeting diverse income groups throughout their daily experience. We conduct multiple experiments and show that the concentration of visitors only explains 26% of street-level ESM. However, adjacent amenities, residential diversity, and income level account for 44% of the ESM. Moreover, using longitudinal business data, we show that streets with an increased number of food businesses have seen an increased ESM from 2016 to 2018. Lastly, although streets with more visitors are more likely to have crime, diverse streets tend to have fewer crimes. These findings suggest that cities can leverage many tools beyond density to curate a diverse and safe street experience for people.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Behavioral changes during the pandemic worsened income diversity of urban encounters

Diversity of physical encounters and social interactions in urban environments are known to spur economic productivity and innovation in cities, while also to foster social capital and resilience of communities. However, mobility restrictions during the pandemic have forced people to substantially reduce urban physical encounters, raising questions on the social implications of such behavioral changes. In this paper, we study how the income diversity of urban encounters have changed during different periods throughout the pandemic, using a large-scale, privacy-enhanced mobility dataset of more than one million anonymized mobile phone users in four large US cities, collected across three years spanning before and during the pandemic. We find that the diversity of urban encounters have substantially decreased (by 15% to 30%) during the pandemic and has persisted through late 2021, even though aggregated mobility metrics have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Counterfactual analyses show that while the reduction of outside activities (higher rates of staying at home) was a major factor that contributed to decreased diversity in the early stages of the pandemic, behavioral changes including lower willingness to explore new places and changes in visitation preferences further worsened the long-term diversity of encounters. Our findings suggest that the pandemic could have long-lasting negative effects on urban income diversity, and provide implications for managing the trade-off between the stringency of COVID-19 policies and the diversity of urban encounters as we move beyond the pandemic.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Longitudinal Complex Dynamics of Labour Markets Reveal Increasing Polarisation

In this paper we conduct a longitudinal analysis of the structure of labour markets in the US over 7 decades of technological, economic and policy change. We make use of network science, natural language processing and machine learning to uncover structural changes in the labour market over time. We find a steady rate of both disappearance of jobs and a shift in the required work tasks, despite much technological and economic change over this time period. Machine learning is used to classify jobs as being predominantly cognitive or physical based on the textual description of the workplace tasks. We also measure increasing polarisation between these two classes of jobs, linked by the similarity of tasks, over time that could constrain workers wishing to move to different jobs.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Generating synthetic mobility data for a realistic population with RNNs to improve utility and privacy

Location data collected from mobile devices represent mobility behaviors at individual and societal levels. These data have important applications ranging from transportation planning to epidemic modeling. However, issues must be overcome to best serve these use cases: The data often represent a limited sample of the population and use of the data jeopardizes privacy. To address these issues, we present and evaluate a system for generating synthetic mobility data using a deep recurrent neural network (RNN) which is trained on real location data. The system takes a population distribution as input and generates mobility traces for a corresponding synthetic population. Related generative approaches have not solved the challenges of capturing both the patterns and variability in individuals' mobility behaviors over longer time periods, while also balancing the generation of realistic data with privacy. Our system leverages RNNs' ability to generate complex and novel sequences while retaining patterns from training data. Also, the model introduces randomness used to calibrate the variation between the synthetic and real data at the individual level. This is to both capture variability in human mobility, and protect user privacy. Location based services (LBS) data from more than 22,700 mobile devices were used in an experimental evaluation across utility and privacy metrics. We show the generated mobility data retain the characteristics of the real data, while varying from the real data at the individual level, and where this amount of variation matches the variation within the real data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Social Learning and the Accuracy-Risk Trade-off in the Wisdom of the Crowd

How do we design and deploy crowdsourced prediction platforms for real-world applications where risk is an important dimension of prediction performance? To answer this question, we conducted a large online Wisdom of the Crowd study where participants predicted the prices of real financial assets (e.g. S&P 500). We observe a Pareto frontier between accuracy of prediction and risk, and find that this trade-off is mediated by social learning i.e. as social learning is increasingly leveraged, it leads to lower accuracy but also lower risk. We also observe that social learning leads to superior accuracy during one of our rounds that occurred during the high market uncertainty of the Brexit vote. Our results have implications for the design of crowdsourced prediction platforms: for example, they suggest that the performance of the crowd should be more comprehensively characterized by using both accuracy and risk (as is standard in financial and statistical forecasting), in contrast to prior work where risk of prediction has been overlooked.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Segregated interactions in urban and online space

Urban income segregation is a widespread phenomenon that challenges societies across the globe. Classical studies on segregation have largely focused on the geographic distribution of residential neighborhoods rather than on patterns of social behaviors and interactions. In this study, we analyze segregation in economic and social interactions by observing credit card transactions and Twitter mentions among thousands of individuals in three culturally different metropolitan areas. We show that segregated interaction is amplified relative to the expected effects of geographic segregation in terms of both purchase activity and online communication. Furthermore, we find that segregation increases with difference in socio-economic status but is asymmetric for purchase activity, i.e., the amount of interaction from poorer to wealthier neighborhoods is larger than vice versa. Our results provide novel insights into the understanding of behavioral segregation in human interactions with significant socio-political and economic implications.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Leveraging Communication Topologies Between Learning Agents in Deep Reinforcement Learning

A common technique to improve learning performance in deep reinforcement learning (DRL) and many other machine learning algorithms is to run multiple learning agents in parallel. A neglected component in the development of these algorithms has been how best to arrange the learning agents involved to improve distributed search. Here we draw upon results from the networked optimization literatures suggesting that arranging learning agents in communication networks other than fully connected topologies (the implicit way agents are commonly arranged in) can improve learning. We explore the relative performance of four popular families of graphs and observe that one such family (Erdos-Renyi random graphs) empirically outperforms the de facto fully-connected communication topology across several DRL benchmark tasks. Additionally, we observe that 1000 learning agents arranged in an Erdos-Renyi graph can perform as well as 3000 agents arranged in the standard fully-connected topology, showing the large learning improvement possible when carefully designing the topology over which agents communicate. We complement these empirical results with a theoretical investigation of why our alternate topologies perform better. Overall, our work suggests that distributed machine learning algorithms could be made more effective if the communication topology between learning agents was optimized.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Analyzing gender inequality through large-scale Facebook advertising data

Online social media are information resources that can have a transformative power in society. While the Web was envisioned as an equalizing force that allows everyone to access information, the digital divide prevents large amounts of people from being present online. Online social media in particular are prone to gender inequality, an important issue given the link between social media use and employment. Understanding gender inequality in social media is a challenging task due to the necessity of data sources that can provide large-scale measurements across multiple countries. Here we show how the Facebook Gender Divide (FGD), a metric based on aggregated statistics of more than 1.4 Billion users in 217 countries, explains various aspects of worldwide gender inequality. Our analysis shows that the FGD encodes gender equality indices in education, health, and economic opportunity. We find gender differences in network externalities that suggest that using social media has an added value for women. Furthermore, we find that low values of the FGD are associated with increases in economic gender equality. Our results suggest that online social networks, while suffering evident gender imbalance, may lower the barriers that women have to access informational resources and help to narrow the economic gender gap.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Towards a new social laboratory: An experimental study of search through community participation at Burning Man

The "small world phenomenon," popularized by Stanley Milgram, suggests that individuals from across a social network are connected via a short path of mutual friends and can leverage their local social information to efficiently traverse that network. Existing social search experiments are plagued by high rates of attrition, which prohibit comprehensive study of social search. We investigate this by conducting a small world experiment at Burning Man, an event located in the Black Rock Desert of Nevada, USA, known its unique social systems and community participation. We design location-tracking vessels that we routed through Burning Man towards the goal of finding a particular person. Along the way, the vessels logged individual information and GPS data. Two of fifteen vessels made it to their designated people, but a month after Burning Man. Our results suggest possible improvements to limit rates of attrition through community participation and a design methodology that emphasizes cultural practices to aid social experimentation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

How to Organize your Deep Reinforcement Learning Agents: The Importance of Communication Topology

In this empirical paper, we investigate how learning agents can be arranged in more efficient communication topologies for improved learning. This is an important problem because a common technique to improve speed and robustness of learning in deep reinforcement learning and many other machine learning algorithms is to run multiple learning agents in parallel. The standard communication architecture typically involves all agents intermittently communicating with each other (fully connected topology) or with a centralized server (star topology). Unfortunately, optimizing the topology of communication over the space of all possible graphs is a hard problem, so we borrow results from the networked optimization and collective intelligence literatures which suggest that certain families of network topologies can lead to strong improvements over fully-connected networks. We start by introducing alternative network topologies to DRL benchmark tasks under the Evolution Strategies paradigm which we call Network Evolution Strategies. We explore the relative performance of the four main graph families and observe that one such family (Erdos-Renyi random graphs) empirically outperforms all other families, including the de facto fully-connected communication topologies. Additionally, the use of alternative network topologies has a multiplicative performance effect: we observe that when 1000 learning agents are arranged in a carefully designed communication topology, they can compete with 3000 agents arranged in the de facto fully-connected topology. Overall, our work suggests that distributed machine learning algorithms would learn more efficiently if the communication topology between learning agents was optimized.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Improved Learning in Evolution Strategies via Sparser Inter-Agent Network Topologies

We draw upon a previously largely untapped literature on human collective intelligence as a source of inspiration for improving deep learning. Implicit in many algorithms that attempt to solve Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) tasks is the network of processors along which parameter values are shared. So far, existing approaches have implicitly utilized fully-connected networks, in which all processors are connected. However, the scientific literature on human collective intelligence suggests that complete networks may not always be the most effective information network structures for distributed search through complex spaces. Here we show that alternative topologies can improve deep neural network training: we find that sparser networks learn higher rewards faster, leading to learning improvements at lower communication costs.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

Attack Tolerance of Link Prediction Algorithms: How to Hide Your Relations in a Social Network

Link prediction is one of the fundamental research problems in network analysis. Intuitively, it involves identifying the edges that are most likely to be added to a given network, or the edges that appear to be missing from the network when in fact they are present. Various algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem over the past decades. For all their benefits, such algorithms raise serious privacy concerns, as they could be used to expose a connection between two individuals who wish to keep their relationship private. With this in mind, we investigate the ability of such individuals to evade link prediction algorithms. More precisely, we study their ability to strategically alter their connections so as to increase the probability that some of their connections remain unidentified by link prediction algorithms. We formalize this question as an optimization problem, and prove that finding an optimal solution is NP-complete. Despite this hardness, we show that the situation is not bleak in practice. In particular, we propose two heuristics that can easily be applied by members of the general public on existing social media. We demonstrate the effectiveness of those heuristics on a wide variety of networks and against a plethora of link prediction algorithms.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

MemeSequencer: Sparse Matching for Embedding Image Macros

The analysis of the creation, mutation, and propagation of social media content on the Internet is an essential problem in computational social science, affecting areas ranging from marketing to political mobilization. A first step towards understanding the evolution of images online is the analysis of rapidly modifying and propagating memetic imagery or `memes'. However, a pitfall in proceeding with such an investigation is the current incapability to produce a robust semantic space for such imagery, capable of understanding differences in Image Macros. In this study, we provide a first step in the systematic study of image evolution on the Internet, by proposing an algorithm based on sparse representations and deep learning to decouple various types of content in such images and produce a rich semantic embedding. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach on a variety of tasks pertaining to memes and Image Macros, such as image clustering, image retrieval, topic prediction and virality prediction, surpassing the existing methods on each. In addition to its utility on quantitative tasks, our method opens up the possibility of obtaining the first large-scale understanding of the evolution and propagation of memetic imagery.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Weather impacts expressed sentiment

We conduct the largest ever investigation into the relationship between meteorological conditions and the sentiment of human expressions. To do this, we employ over three and a half billion social media posts from tens of millions of individuals from both Facebook and Twitter between 2009 and 2016. We find that cold temperatures, hot temperatures, precipitation, narrower daily temperature ranges, humidity, and cloud cover are all associated with worsened expressions of sentiment, even when excluding weather-related posts. We compare the magnitude of our estimates with the effect sizes associated with notable historical events occurring within our data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2017

Temporal patterns behind the strength of persistent ties

Social networks are made out of strong and weak ties having very different structural and dynamical properties. But, what features of human interaction build a strong tie? Here we approach this question from an practical way by finding what are the properties of social interactions that make ties more persistent and thus stronger to maintain social interactions in the future. Using a large longitudinal mobile phone database we build a predictive model of tie persistence based on intensity, intimacy, structural and temporal patterns of social interaction. While our results confirm that structural (embeddedness) and intensity (number of calls) are correlated with tie persistence, we find that temporal features of communication events are better and more efficient predictors for tie persistence. Specifically, although communication within ties is always bursty we find that ties that are more bursty than the average are more likely to decay, signaling that tie strength is not only reflected in the intensity or topology of the network, but also on how individuals distribute time or attention across their relationships. We also found that stable relationships have and require a constant rhythm and if communication is halted for more than 8 times the previous communication frequency, most likely the tie will decay. Our results not only are important to understand the strength of social relationships but also to unveil the entanglement between the different temporal scales in networks, from microscopic tie burstiness and rhythm to macroscopic network evolution.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Channel-Specific Daily Patterns in Mobile Phone Communication

Humans follow circadian rhythms, visible in their activity levels as well as physiological and psychological factors. Such rhythms are also visible in electronic communication records, where the aggregated activity levels of e.g. mobile telephone calls or Wikipedia edits are known to follow their own daily patterns. Here, we study the daily communication patterns of 24 individuals over 18 months, and show that each individual has a different, persistent communication pattern. These patterns may differ for calls and text messages, which points towards calls and texts serving a different role in communication. For both calls and texts, evenings play a special role. There are also differences in the daily patterns of males and females both for calls and texts, both in how they communicate with individuals of the same gender vs. opposite gender, and also in how communication is allocated at social ties of different nature (kin ties vs. non-kin ties). Taken together, our results show that there is an unexpected richness to the daily communication patterns, from different types of ties being activated at different times of day to different roles of communication channels and gender differences.

physics.soc-ph↗