arXiv subjects

Fernando Barão

Publications and source records attributed to Fernando Barão.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A new model for long-term forecasting of Galactic cosmic rays

The modulation of galactic cosmic rays, driven by the evolution of the heliospheric magnetic field, strongly influences the intensity of cosmic rays reaching near-Earth space. Characterizing this process is crucial both for advancing our understanding of cosmic-ray transport and for assessing radiation exposure and related hazards in space environments. Here we present a newly developed forecasting framework built on a numerical description of charged particle transport in the heliosphere and its dependence on solar activity, designed for the long-term forecasting of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes. It solves a one-dimensional, spherically symmetric form of the Parker transport equation, including diffusion, solar-wind advection, and adiabatic energy losses. The model has been validated using multi-species flux measurements from space-based experiments: PAMELA, AMS-02, and ACE. Its strategy is based on Hilbert-Huang transform filtering and cross-correlation between delayed solar proxies and effective model parameters. Our charge-sign- and rigidity-dependent parametric description of the diffusion-advection processes yields good overall agreement with the data, as shown by the reconstruction uncertainty. The robustness of this approach is validated across a broad set of multichannel datasets covering different particle species, energy ranges, and phases of solar activity, supporting its applicability to space radiation monitoring and forecasting. Furthermore, when coupled with solar-proxy forecasting models, it enables decadal-scale predictions of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes, thereby supporting long-term planning and radiation-risk assessment for future space missions.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2025

Understanding variations of galactic energetic particles in the heliosphere: modelling and radiation hazard assessment

The intensity and energy spectrum of energetic charged radiation in the heliosphere are significantly influenced by solar activity. This phenomenon is known as solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. As interplanetary travel becomes a reality, missions in low Earth orbit become longer and more frequent. In low Earth orbit we need to estimate the influence of Earth's magnetosphere accurately to assess the radiation hazard experienced by astronauts during space missions, there is an emergent need for accurately depicting the space radiation environment and predicting the cosmic-ray flux in the heliosphere. Here we present a new effective and predictive model of solar modulation which incorporates fundamental physics processes of particle transport such as diffusion, convection, and adiabatic cooling to compute the energy spectrum; and temporal evolution of cosmic radiation in the inner heliosphere. Empowered by this model and a time-dependent effective description of the geomagnetic field, we will show our estimates of the dose rates experienced by astronauts over time, as they orbit Earth onboard the International Space Station and while travelling through interplanetary space.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

A forecasting framework for galactic cosmic ray flux in space weather applications

The intensity and energy spectrum of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere are significantly influenced by the 11-year solar cycle, a phenomenon known as solar modulation. Understanding this effect and its underlying physical mechanisms is essential for assessing radiation exposure and associated risks during space missions. Starting from a previously developed effective predictive model of solar modulation, validated using cosmic ray flux measurements from space-based detectors such as PAMELA and AMS-02, we build a generalizable forecasting strategy for the long-term evolution of cosmic ray fluxes. This strategy is based on identifying delayed cross-correlation relationships between solar proxies and the model's parameters. It integrates recent findings on time lags between cosmic ray fluxes and solar activity, and incorporates advanced time-series signal processing techniques. The framework not only performs well in reproducing observed data, but also shows strong potential for applications in space radiation monitoring and forecasting. By efficiently capturing the long-term variability of galactic cosmic rays, our approach contributes valuable insights for evaluating radiation risks, ultimately supporting safer and more effective space exploration.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Cross-correlation analysis for cosmic ray flux forecasting

The study presents an effective approach for deriving and utilizing polarity-based cross-correlation functions to forecast Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes based on solar activity proxies. By leveraging a universal correlation framework calibrated with AMS-02 and PAMELA proton flux data under a numerical model, the methodology incorporates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and a global spline fit. These techniques ensure robust handling of short-term fluctuations and smooth transitions during polarity reversals. The results have significant potential for space weather applications, enabling reliable GCR flux predictions critical for radiation risk assessments and operational planning in space exploration and satellite missions.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

Feature Selection Techniques for CR Isotope Identification with the AMS-02 Experiment in Space

Isotopic composition measurements of singly charged cosmic rays (CR) provide essential insights into CR transport in the Galaxy. The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) can identify singly charged isotopes up to about 10 GeV/n. However, their identification presents challenges due to the small abundance of CR deuterons compared to the proton background. In particular, a high accuracy for the velocity measured by a ring-imaging Cherenkov detector (RICH) is needed to achieve a good isotopic mass separation over a wide range of energies. The velocity measurement with the RICH is particularly challenging for $Z=1$ isotopes due to the low number of photons produced in the Cherenkov rings. This faint signal is easily disrupted by noisy hits leading to a misreconstruction of the particles' ring. Hence, an efficient background reduction process is needed to ensure the quality of the reconstructed Cherenkov rings and provide a correct measurement of the particles' velocity. Machine learning methods, particularly boosted decision trees, are well suited for this task, but their performance relies on the choice of the features needed for their training phase. While physics-driven feature selection methods based on the knowledge of the detector are often used, machine learning algorithms for automated feature selection can provide a helpful alternative that optimises the classification method's performance. We compare five algorithms for selecting the feature samples for RICH background reduction, achieving the best results with the Random Forest method. We also test its performance against the physics-driven selection method, obtaining better results.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Numerical modeling of cosmic-ray transport in the heliosphere and interpretation of the proton-to-helium ratio in Solar Cycle 24

Thanks to space-borne experiments of cosmic-ray (CR) detection, such as the AMS and PAMELA missions in low-Earth orbit, or the Voyager-1 spacecraft in the interstellar space, a large collection of multi-channel and time-resolved CR data has become available. Recently, the AMS experiment has released new precision data, on the proton and helium fluxes in CRs, measured on monthly basis during its first six years of mission. The AMS data reveal a remarkable long-term behavior in the temporal evolution of the proton-to-helium ratio at rigidity $R = p/Z <$ 3 GV. As we have argued in a recent work, such a behavior may reflect the transport properties of low-rigidity CRs in the inteplanetary space. In particular, it can be caused by mass/charge dependence of the CR diffusion coefficient. In this paper, we present our developments in the numerical modeling of CR transport in the Milky Way and in the heliosphere. Within our model, and with the help of approximated analytical solutions, we describe in details the relations between the properties of CR diffusion and the time-dependent evolution of the proton-to-helium ratio.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Testing diffusion of cosmic rays in the heliosphere with proton and helium data from AMS

After six years of continuous observations in space, the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer experiment has released new data on the temporal evolution of the proton and helium fluxes in cosmic rays. These data revealed that the ratio between proton and helium fluxes at the same value of rigidity $R=p/Z$ (momentum/charge ratio) is not constant at $R\lesssim$ 3 GV. In particular, the ratio is found to decrease steadily during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 24 toward the next minimum. We show that such a behavior is a remarkable signature of the $β\timesλ(R)$ dependence in the diffusion of cosmic rays in heliosphere, where $β$ is their adimensional speed and $λ(R)$ is their mean free path, a universal function of rigidity for all nuclei. This dependence is responsible for distinctive charge/mass dependent effects in the time-dependent modulation of low-rigidity particles.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Observation of a time lag in solar modulation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere

The solar modulation effect of Galactic cosmic rays is a time-dependent phenomenon that is caused by the transport of these particles through the magnetized plasma of the heliosphere. Using a data-driven model of cosmic-ray transport in the heliosphere, in combination with a large collection of data, we report the evidence for a eight-month time lag between observations of solar activity and measurements of cosmic-ray fluxes in space. As we will discuss, this result enables us to forecast the cosmic ray flux at Earth well in advance by monitoring solar activity. We also compare our predictions with the new multi-channel measurements of cosmic rays operated by the AMS experiment in space.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2008

Velocity and charge reconstruction with the AMS/RICH detector

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS), to be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) in 2008, will be equipped with a proximity focusing Ring Imaging CHerenkov detector (RICH). This detector will be equipped with a dual radiator (aerogel+NaF), a lateral conical mirror and a detection plane made of 680 photomultipliers and light-guides, enabling measurements of particle electric charge and velocity. A likelihood method for the Cherenkov angle reconstruction was applied leading to a velocity determination for protons with a resolution around 0.1%. The electric charge reconstruction is based on the counting of the number of photoelectrons and on an overall efficiency estimation on an event-by-event basis. Results from the application of both methods are presented.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Cosmic ray velocity and electric charge measurements with the AMS/RICH detector: prototype results

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) to be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) will measure charged cosmic ray spectra of elements up to iron, in the rigidity range from 1 GV to 1 TV, for at least three years. AMS is a large angular spectrometer composed of different subdetectors, including a proximity focusing Ring Imaging CHerenkov (RICH) detector. This will be equipped with a mixed radiator made of aerogel and sodium fluoride (NaF), a lateral conical mirror and a detection plane made of 680 photomultipliers coupled to light guides. The RICH detector allows measurements of particle's electric charge up to iron, and particle's velocity. Two possible methods for reconstructing the Cherenkov angle and the electric charge with the RICH will be discussed. A RICH prototype consisting of a detection matrix with 96 photomultipliers, a segment of a conical mirror and samples of the radiator materials was built and its performance was evaluated using ion beam data. Results from the last test beam performed with ion fragments resulting from the collision of a 158 GeV/c/nucleon primary beam of indium ions (CERN SPS) on a lead target are reported. The large amount of collected data allowed to test and characterize different aerogel samples and the NaF radiator. In addition, the reflectivity of the mirror was evaluated. The data analysis confirms the design goals.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

AMS - a magnetic spectrometer on the international space station

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) is a particle detector, designed to search for cosmic antimatter and dark matter and to study the elemental and isotopic composition of primary cosmic rays, that will be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) in 2008 to operate for at least three years. The detector will be equipped with a ring imaging Cherenkov detector (RICH) enabling measurements of particle electric charge and velocity with unprecedented accuracy. Physics prospects and test beam results are shortly presented.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Isotopic mass separation with the RICH detector of the AMS Experiment

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) to be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) will be equipped with a proximity focusing Ring Imaging Cerenkov detector (RICH). Reconstruction of the Cerenkov angle and the electric charge with RICH are discussed. A likelihood method for the Cerenkov angle reconstruction was applied leading to a velocity determination for protons with a resolution around 0.1%. The electric charge reconstruction is based on the counting of the number of photoelectrons and on an overall efficiency estimation on an event-by-event basis. The isotopic mass separation of helium and beryllium is presented.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

The Ring Imaging Cherenkov detector of the AMS experiment: test beam results with a prototype

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) to be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) will be equipped with a proximity Ring Imaging Cherenkov (RICH) detector for measuring the velocity and electric charge of the charged cosmic particles. This detector will contribute to the high level of redundancy required for AMS as well as to the rejection of albedo particles. Charge separation up to iron and a velocity resolution of the order of 0.1% for singly charged particles are expected. A RICH protoptype consisting of a detection matrix with 96 photomultiplier units, a segment of a conical mirror and samples of the radiator materials was built and its performance was evaluated. Results from the last test beam performed with ion fragments resulting from the collision of a 158 GeV/c/nucleon primary beam of indium ions (CERN SPS) on a lead target are reported. The large amount of collected data allowed to test and characterize different aerogel samples and the sodium fluoride radiator. In addition, the reflectivity of the mirror was evaluated. The data analysis confirms the design goals.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Particle identification with the AMS-02 RICH detector: D/p and anti-D/anti-p separation

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS), whose final version AMS-02 is to be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) for at least 3 years, is a detector designed to measure charged cosmic ray spectra with energies up to the TeV region and with high energy photon detection capability up to a few hundred GeV, using state-of-the art particle identification techniques. Among several detector subsystems, AMS includes a proximity focusing RICH enabling precise measurements of particle electric charge and velocity. The combination of both these measurements together with the particle rigidity measured on the silicon tracker endows a reliable measurement of the particle mass. The main topics of the AMS-02 physics program include detailed measurements of the nuclear component of the cosmic-ray spectrum and the search for indirect signatures of dark matter. Mass separation of singly charged particles, and in particular the separation of deuterons and antideuterons from massive backgrounds of protons and antiprotons respectively, is essential in this context. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations of AMS-02 have been used to evaluate the detector's performance for mass separation at different energies. The obtained results and physics prospects are presented.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

Particle identification with the AMS-02 RICH detector: search for dark matter with antideuterons

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS), whose final version AMS-02 is to be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) for at least 3 years, is a detector designed to measure charged cosmic ray spectra with energies up to the TeV region and with high energy photon detection capability up to a few hundred GeV, using state-of-the art particle identification techniques. It is equipped with several subsystems, one of which is a proximity focusing Ring Imaging Cherenkov (RICH) detector equipped with a dual radiator (aerogel+NaF), a lateral conical mirror and a detection plane made of 680 photomultipliers and light guides, enabling precise measurements of particle electric charge and velocity (Delta beta / beta ~ 10^-3 and 10^-4 for Z=1 and Z=10-20, respectively) at kinetic energies of a few GeV/nucleon. Combining velocity measurements with data on particle rigidity from the AMS-02 Tracker (Delta R / R ~ 2% for R=1-10 GV) it is possible to obtain a reliable measurement for particle mass. One of the main topics of the AMS-02 physics program is the search for indirect signatures of dark matter. Experimental data indicate that dark, non-baryonic matter of unknown composition is much more abundant than baryonic matter, accounting for a large fraction of the energy content of the Universe. Apart from antideuterons produced in cosmic-ray propagation, the annihilation of dark matter will produce additional antideuteron fluxes. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations of AMS-02 have been used to evaluate the detector's performance for mass separation, a key issue for anti-D/anti-p separation. Results of these studies are presented.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

Isotope separation with the RICH detector of the AMS Experiment

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS), to be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) in 2008, is a cosmic ray detector with several subsystems, one of which is a proximity focusing Ring Imaging Cherenkov (RICH) detector. This detector will be equipped with a dual radiator (aerogel+NaF), a lateral conical mirror and a detection plane made of 680 photomultipliers and light guides, enabling precise measurements of particle electric charge and velocity. Combining velocity measurements with data on particle rigidity from the AMS Tracker it is possible to obtain a measurement for particle mass, allowing the separation of isotopes. A Monte Carlo simulation of the RICH detector, based on realistic properties measured at ion beam tests, was performed to evaluate isotope separation capabilities. Results for three elements -- H (Z=1), He (Z=2) and Be (Z=4) -- are presented.

astro-ph↗