SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Stuart Russell

Publications and source records attributed to Stuart Russell.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Computationally Efficient Collaborative Communication Via Regularity-Based Coarsening

Our results show that the existence of a short high-utility protocol already suffices for efficient communication. In particular, in a game with $n$ possible observations and $m$ actions: (1) For any achievable target utility $\alpha$, we give an algorithm with $\mathrm{poly}(n, m, 1/\epsilon)$ runtime that designs a protocol achieving utility at least $\alpha-\epsilon$ using only $2^{\mathcal O(CC_\alpha(G))}/\epsilon^2$ bits of communication. Here, $CC_\alpha(G)$ is the minimum number of bits used by any protocol, even a computationally inefficient one, to achieve utility $\alpha$. (2) We prove that this exponential dependence on $CC_\alpha(G)$ is tight up to a constant. That is, unless $\mathrm P=\mathrm{NP}$, no polynomial-time algorithm can in general find optimal protocols using fewer than $2^{CC_\alpha(G) -2}$ bits. We note that our results strictly weaken the assumptions required by prior work in the multi-agent information aggregation literature, filling a gap that had remained elusive even for games with constant $CC_\alpha(G)$. In particular, prior guarantees for agreement-based information aggregation rely on structural assumptions such as informational substitutes or weak learnability. We show that these assumptions already imply $CC_\alpha(G) = O(1)$ and are therefore more restrictive conditions than required by our protocol to succeed. On a technical level, our results involve a novel strengthening of the Frieze-Kannan weak regularity lemma and yield the following powerful polynomial-time transformation tool: for every communication game $G$, it constructs a game $\hat G$ that is a coarsening of the agents' observation spaces into constant-size partitions, such that $G$ and $\hat G$ are indistinguishable with respect to every short communication protocol. This coarsening theorem is the engine behind our algorithm and may be of independent interest.

cs.GT

Provably Optimal Learning Algorithms for Assistance Games

This paper studies an online variant of the assistance games framework, where an informed agent and an uninformed agent repeatedly interact over $T$ timesteps to optimize a common reward function. While the informed agent (the human) observes a latent state of the world, the uninformed agent (the assistant) observes only the human's actions. We provide the first provably efficient learning algorithms for repeated assistance games. We introduce the notion of assistance regret: the gap between the cumulative utility of interactions and that of the optimal joint policies in hindsight, which map latent states to action pairs. We present decentralized algorithms for both the human and the assistant that achieve a $(1-1/e)$-approximate assistance regret rate of $\widetilde{O}(T^{3/4})$, with runtime polynomial in the size of the action and state spaces. These algorithms are general; in particular, they accommodate any no-regret algorithm for the assistant. We prove that achieving a regret approximation factor better than $(1-1/e)$ is computationally intractable. Furthermore, we demonstrate how these generic no-regret algorithms can be tailored to a pseudo-decentralized setting -- using a shared random string -- to achieve a rate of $\widetilde{O}(T^{1/2})$, optimal up to logarithmic factors.

cs.LG

The 2026 Singapore Consensus on Global AI Safety Research Priorities

Frontier AI capabilities and autonomy are advancing rapidly. A growing number of real-world incidents make a trusted AI ecosystem essential to embracing AI with confidence. The 2026 Singapore Consensus is an outcome of the second International Scientific Exchange on AI Safety, bringing together over 100 contributors spanning 13 countries from frontier developers, government safety institutes, academia, and civil society. Building on the 2025 report, it presents a global understanding of technical AI safety research problems of top priority, now with a dedicated focus on societal resilience and on managing the risks of increasingly autonomous AI agents.

cs.CY

DiscoLoop: Looping Discrete Embeddings and Continuous Hidden States for Multi-hop Reasoning

Large language models achieve strong performance on many reasoning tasks when allowed to externalize intermediate steps as Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, many questions require the model to internalize the multi-step reasoning within a single forward pass before generating the answer. We study this challenge through two-hop reasoning, a representative task where the model must compose multiple pieces of parametric knowledge within a single forward pass. Standard non-recurrent Transformers suffer from a depth-local storage problem: facts learned in earlier layers are unavailable where second-hop retrieval happens. We found that Looped Transformers mitigate this issue by reusing the same memory, but still generalize imperfectly. We show that the remaining bottleneck is representational. In the two-hop reasoning task, the first loop often makes the correct bridge entity nearly perfectly decodable, yet the corresponding hidden state remains poorly aligned with the bridge token embedding. Surprisingly, an easy training-free realignment intervention nearly closes the generalization gap. Building upon this insight, we propose DiscoLoop, a looping architecture whose recurrence carries both a discrete embedding channel and a continuous hidden-state channel. DiscoLoop achieves near-perfect accuracy with substantially fewer training steps across symbolic and synthetic-language multi-hop reasoning tasks. When applied to real-world pretraining, DiscoLoop attains lower training loss and stronger benchmark performance than looped-transformer baselines, suggesting that the mixed-channel design transfers to practical language modeling.

cs.CL

When Do Autoregressive Sequence Models Forecast Physical Wavefields? A Controlled Study on Synthetic Seismograms

Long-horizon autoregressive forecasting of oscillatory physical signals, such as seismograms, gravitational-wave strain, and similar wavefields is limited by error accumulation: as a causal model is fed its own outputs over hundreds of steps, small per-step errors compound into phase drift that pointwise metrics fail to detect. We ask when such rollout stays stable, using synthetic three-component seismograms as a physically structured testbed and the \textsc{SeismoGPT} autoregressive forecaster as the model under study. Through controlled architecture ablations evaluated on free rollout with paired significance tests, we isolate the contribution of each design choice. Multi-token prediction is the dominant stabilizer, accounting for almost the entire improvement over a single-token baseline ($+0.042$ median NCC); a horizon-embedding hybrid prediction head and a cross-horizon STFT-magnitude coherence loss each add a small but consistent further gain. Performance depends sharply on a context-ratio threshold near one, roughly the full P-S interval of observed signal, below which rollout generalization collapses. The dominant residual failure is a polarity inversion: a magnitude-based spectral loss reduces its incidence but, by construction, cannot penalize an inverted segment once it occurs, identifying phase-aware objectives as the natural next step. We frame this as a controlled study of rollout stability on oscillatory wavefields, not a benchmark of forecasting architectures.

cs.LG

Data-Driven Forecasting of three-Component Seismograms Using Transformer Architectures

Forecasting seismic waveforms beyond observed data remains challenging due to the nonlinear, dispersive, and multi-scale nature of seismic wave propagation. In this work, we introduce \textsc{SeismoGPT}, a transformer-based autoregressive model designed to forecast three-component seismic waveforms directly in the time domain. Forecasting is formulated as a physically constrained continuation problem in which the model receives waveform context beginning at the P-wave arrival and extending a defined time beyond the S-wave arrival, after which future motion is generated recursively without access to ground-truth samples. Evaluation is performed on synthetic seismograms spanning source depths of 5--100\,km, epicentral distances of 10--90$^\circ$, and magnitudes $3 \leq M_w \leq 7$. To disentangle the effects of context length and prediction horizon, we define three evaluation configurations using a distance-normalized context ratio and fixed prediction horizons of 120 and 240\,s. Across all configurations, the model achieves a median normalized cross correlation of 0.93 or higher. Analysis of representative forecasts shows that successful predictions preserve both phase coherence and spectral energy distribution. Where failure cases arise, this is primarily due to gradual phase drift during autoregressive rollout rather than unphysical signal generation. These results demonstrate that transformer-based sequence models can learn stable dynamical continuation of seismic wavefields, highlighting the potential of foundation-model approaches for physics-driven time-series forecasting. There are potential applications of this methodology in seismic warning and hazard mitigation, particularly for next-generation gravitational-wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope.

astro-ph.IM

Transformers Provably Learn to Internalize Chain-of-Thought

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting substantially improves the sample efficiency of transformers, reducing the complexity of tasks like parity learning from exponential to polynomial in the input length. However, generating explicit reasoning steps at inference is computationally expensive. Implicit Chain-of-Thought (ICoT) has emerged as a promising empirical remedy that trains models to internalize intermediate steps within their hidden states, but its theoretical foundations remain poorly understood. We give the first theoretical analysis of ICoT, proving that an $L$-layer transformer trained under our proposed Log-ICoT curriculum learns $k$-parity with $\mathsf{poly}(n)$ samples and $L = \log_2 k$ training stages. This matches the sample efficiency of explicit CoT while eliminating its inference overhead, and extends prior one-layer parity guarantees to multi-layer architectures. Compared to standard ICoT, which removes thinking tokens one at a time, Log-ICoT removes them in geometric chunks, reducing the number of stages from linear in $k$ to logarithmic. Experiments on multi-layer transformers confirm the theory and visualize how reasoning is progressively absorbed into deeper layers.

cs.LG

Learning the Preferences of a Learning Agent

For AI systems to be useful to humans, they must understand and act in accordance with our values and preferences. Since specifying preferences is a hard task, inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to develop methods that allow for inferring preferences from observed behavior. However, IRL assumes the human to be approximately optimal. This is a big limitation in cases where the human themselves may be learning to act optimally in an environment. In this paper, we formalize the problem of learning the preferences of a learning agent: a predictor observes a learner acting online and tries to infer the underlying reward function being (initially suboptimally) optimized by the learner. We model the learner as either being no-regret, or as converging to an optimal Boltzmann policy over time. In each of these settings, we establish theoretical guarantees for various preference learning algorithms, or otherwise show that such guarantees are impossible.

cs.AI

International AI Safety Report 2026

The International AI Safety Report 2026 synthesises the current scientific evidence on the capabilities, emerging risks, and safety of general-purpose AI systems. The report series was mandated by the nations attending the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley, UK. 29 nations, the UN, the OECD, and the EU each nominated a representative to the report's Expert Advisory Panel. Over 100 AI experts contributed, representing diverse perspectives and disciplines. Led by the Report's Chair, these independent experts collectively had full discretion over the report's content.

cs.CY

Synthetic Error Injection Fails to Elicit Self-Correction In Language Models

Reinforcement learning has become the dominant paradigm for eliciting reasoning and self-correction capabilities in large language models, but its computational expense motivates exploration of alternatives. Inspired by techniques from autonomous driving and robotics, we investigate whether supervised learning with synthetic error injection can induce self-correction abilities in language models. Our approach inserts artificial errors into reasoning chains, masks them, and supervises the model to recognize and correct these mistakes. Despite the intuitive appeal of this method, we find that it fails to significantly improve performance even on simple synthetic tasks across multiple models. Moreover, even when the model catches its own error, it often parrots the original mistake. We find that the distribution shift of synthetic errors to on-policy errors significantly degrades the error-correction capabilities of the fine-tuned model, even with good synthetic coverage of on-policy errors. Our results help explain why on-policy reinforcement learning methods have proven uniquely effective for eliciting self-correction.

cs.AI

International AI Safety Report 2025: Second Key Update: Technical Safeguards and Risk Management

This second update to the 2025 International AI Safety Report assesses new developments in general-purpose AI risk management over the past year. It examines how researchers, public institutions, and AI developers are approaching risk management for general-purpose AI. In recent months, for example, three leading AI developers applied enhanced safeguards to their new models, as their internal pre-deployment testing could not rule out the possibility that these models could be misused to help create biological weapons. Beyond specific precautionary measures, there have been a range of other advances in techniques for making AI models and systems more reliable and resistant to misuse. These include new approaches in adversarial training, data curation, and monitoring systems. In parallel, institutional frameworks that operationalise and formalise these technical capabilities are starting to emerge: the number of companies publishing Frontier AI Safety Frameworks more than doubled in 2025, and governments and international organisations have established a small number of governance frameworks for general-purpose AI, focusing largely on transparency and risk assessment.

cs.CY

Robust and Diverse Multi-Agent Learning via Rational Policy Gradient

Adversarial optimization algorithms that explicitly search for flaws in agents' policies have been successfully applied to finding robust and diverse policies in multi-agent settings. However, the success of adversarial optimization has been largely limited to zero-sum settings because its naive application in cooperative settings leads to a critical failure mode: agents are irrationally incentivized to self-sabotage, blocking the completion of tasks and halting further learning. To address this, we introduce Rationality-preserving Policy Optimization (RPO), a formalism for adversarial optimization that avoids self-sabotage by ensuring agents remain rational--that is, their policies are optimal with respect to some possible partner policy. To solve RPO, we develop Rational Policy Gradient (RPG), which trains agents to maximize their own reward in a modified version of the original game in which we use opponent shaping techniques to optimize the adversarial objective. RPG enables us to extend a variety of existing adversarial optimization algorithms that, no longer subject to the limitations of self-sabotage, can find adversarial examples, improve robustness and adaptability, and learn diverse policies. We empirically validate that our approach achieves strong performance in several popular cooperative and general-sum environments. Our project page can be found at https://rational-policy-gradient.github.io.

cs.AI

International AI Safety Report 2025: First Key Update: Capabilities and Risk Implications

Since the publication of the first International AI Safety Report, AI capabilities have continued to improve across key domains. New training techniques that teach AI systems to reason step-by-step and inference-time enhancements have primarily driven these advances, rather than simply training larger models. As a result, general-purpose AI systems can solve more complex problems in a range of domains, from scientific research to software development. Their performance on benchmarks that measure performance in coding, mathematics, and answering expert-level science questions has continued to improve, though reliability challenges persist, with systems excelling on some tasks while failing completely on others. These capability improvements also have implications for multiple risks, including risks from biological weapons and cyber attacks. Finally, they pose new challenges for monitoring and controllability. This update examines how AI capabilities have improved since the first Report, then focuses on key risk areas where substantial new evidence warrants updated assessments.

cs.CY

Emergence of Superposition: Unveiling the Training Dynamics of Chain of Continuous Thought

Previous work shows that the chain of continuous thought (continuous CoT) improves the reasoning capability of large language models (LLMs) by enabling implicit parallel thinking, and a subsequent work provided theoretical insight by showing that a two-layer transformer equipped with continuous CoT can efficiently solve directed graph reachability by maintaining a superposition of multiple reasoning traces in the continuous thought. However, it remains unclear how the superposition mechanism is naturally learned from gradient-based training methods. To fill this gap, we theoretically analyze the training dynamics of a simplified two-layer transformer on the directed graph reachability problem to unveil how the superposition mechanism emerges during training in two training stages -- (i) a thought-generation stage that autoregressively expands the continuous thought, and (ii) a prediction stage that converts the thought into the final answer. Our analysis reveals that during training using continuous thought, the index-matching logit, an important quantity which reflects the strength of the model's local search ability, will first increase and then remain bounded under mild assumptions. The bounded index-matching logit effectively balances exploration and exploitation during the reasoning process: the model will exploit local problem structures to identify plausible search traces, and assign comparable weights to multiple such traces to explore when it is uncertain about which solution is correct, which results in superposition. Our experimental results tracking the growth of logits further validate our theory.

cs.LG

GSM-Agent: Understanding Agentic Reasoning Using Controllable Environments

As LLMs are increasingly deployed as agents, agentic reasoning - the ability to combine tool use, especially search, and reasoning - becomes a critical skill. However, it is hard to disentangle agentic reasoning when evaluated in complex environments and tasks. Current agent benchmarks often mix agentic reasoning with challenging math reasoning, expert-level knowledge, and other advanced capabilities. To fill this gap, we build a novel benchmark, GSM-Agent, where an LLM agent is required to solve grade-school-level reasoning problems, but is only presented with the question in the prompt without the premises that contain the necessary information to solve the task, and needs to proactively collect that information using tools. Although the original tasks are grade-school math problems, we observe that even frontier models like GPT-5 only achieve 67% accuracy. To understand and analyze the agentic reasoning patterns, we propose the concept of agentic reasoning graph: cluster the environment's document embeddings into nodes, and map each tool call to its nearest node to build a reasoning path. Surprisingly, we identify that the ability to revisit a previously visited node, widely taken as a crucial pattern in static reasoning, is often missing for agentic reasoning for many models. Based on the insight, we propose a tool-augmented test-time scaling method to improve LLM's agentic reasoning performance by adding tools to encourage models to revisit. We expect our benchmark and the agentic reasoning framework to aid future studies of understanding and pushing the boundaries of agentic reasoning.

cs.AI

Forecasting Seismic Waveforms: A Deep Learning Approach for Einstein Telescope

We introduce \textit{SeismoGPT}, a transformer-based model for forecasting three-component seismic waveforms in the context of future gravitational wave detectors like the Einstein Telescope. The model is trained in an autoregressive setting and can operate on both single-station and array-based inputs. By learning temporal and spatial dependencies directly from waveform data, SeismoGPT captures realistic ground motion patterns and provides accurate short-term forecasts. Our results show that the model performs well within the immediate prediction window and gradually degrades further ahead, as expected in autoregressive systems. This approach lays the groundwork for data-driven seismic forecasting that could support Newtonian noise mitigation and real-time observatory control.

cs.LG

The Singapore Consensus on Global AI Safety Research Priorities

Rapidly improving AI capabilities and autonomy hold significant promise of transformation, but are also driving vigorous debate on how to ensure that AI is safe, i.e., trustworthy, reliable, and secure. Building a trusted ecosystem is therefore essential -- it helps people embrace AI with confidence and gives maximal space for innovation while avoiding backlash. The "2025 Singapore Conference on AI (SCAI): International Scientific Exchange on AI Safety" aimed to support research in this space by bringing together AI scientists across geographies to identify and synthesise research priorities in AI safety. This resulting report builds on the International AI Safety Report chaired by Yoshua Bengio and backed by 33 governments. By adopting a defence-in-depth model, this report organises AI safety research domains into three types: challenges with creating trustworthy AI systems (Development), challenges with evaluating their risks (Assessment), and challenges with monitoring and intervening after deployment (Control).

cs.AI

Generalization or Hallucination? Understanding Out-of-Context Reasoning in Transformers

Large language models (LLMs) can acquire new knowledge through fine-tuning, but this process exhibits a puzzling duality: models can generalize remarkably from new facts, yet are also prone to hallucinating incorrect information. However, the reasons for this phenomenon remain poorly understood. In this work, we argue that both behaviors stem from a single mechanism known as out-of-context reasoning (OCR): the ability to deduce implications by associating concepts, even those without a causal link. Our experiments across five prominent LLMs confirm that OCR indeed drives both generalization and hallucination, depending on whether the associated concepts are causally related. To build a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon, we then formalize OCR as a synthetic factual recall task. We empirically show that a one-layer single-head attention-only transformer with factorized output and value matrices can learn to solve this task, while a model with combined weights cannot, highlighting the crucial role of matrix factorization. Our theoretical analysis shows that the OCR capability can be attributed to the implicit bias of gradient descent, which favors solutions that minimize the nuclear norm of the combined output-value matrix. This mathematical structure explains why the model learns to associate facts and implications with high sample efficiency, regardless of whether the correlation is causal or merely spurious. Ultimately, our work provides a theoretical foundation for understanding the OCR phenomenon, offering a new lens for analyzing and mitigating undesirable behaviors from knowledge injection.

cs.CL