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Yifan Hu

Publications and source records attributed to Yifan Hu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

TopoSteer: Topological Layer Selection for Activation Steering in LLMs

Activation steering controls large language models at inference time by adding a vector to their internal representations. Most work asks how to build that vector, and far less attention has gone to where to add it, even though steering at a poorly chosen layer can be worse than not steering at all. Prior selectors choose a layer without ever steering the model to test it: they score how separable the target behavior is at that layer, and how consistently the individual examples point along the steering direction. We argue that what matters is not the separability of the two activation clouds, nor the alignment of individual displacements with their mean, but the extent of the cloud of per-example displacements that mean-difference steering averages. We propose a topology-based layer selection method, called TopoSteer, which scores a layer by the total H_0 persistence of its displacement cloud, computed as the length of the cloud's Euclidean minimum spanning tree. We show that the score focuses on the displacement cloud's relative geometry, while class separation affects it only through standardization. We also provide a theoretical explanation for our method by proving that, as example-level variation increases, TopoSteer and discriminability move in opposite directions, so the two criteria can rank layers in opposite ways. Across multiple language models and steering tasks, TopoSteer provides a principled alternative to discriminability- and separability-based layer selection and yields more effective steering without requiring held-out validation.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting needs Cross Variable Loss

Multivariate time series forecasting presents unique challenges because future variables often co-evolve under shared system dynamics. While existing studies mainly focus on cross-variable dependencies in historical observations, dependencies among future values are much less explored. Specifically, modern forecasting models largely follow the Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm, generating multi-step forecasts with point-wise objectives that do not explicitly constrain cross-variable structure. In this work, we show that the DF objective is mismatched in the presence of cross-variable and lagged dependencies, revealing an objective gap. To address this issue, we propose \textbf{C}ross-\textbf{V}ariable \textbf{Loss} (CvLoss), a plug-in structural regularizer that constrains forecast residuals on a cross-variable graph. CvLoss penalizes inconsistent edge-wise residual differences over forecast patches, encouraging consistency across both synchronous and asynchronous interactions. Our experiments show that CvLoss consistently improves competitive forecasting models, outperforms representative learning objectives, and is compatible with a variety of forecasting backbones.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Direct Detection of Leptophobic Dark Matter with Electronic Collective Excitations

Some new-generation dark matter detection experiments are primarily designed to search for the dark matter-electron interactions, but they can also be utilized to probe models in which dark matter couples exclusively to nucleon via the quantum effects. The hadronic loop-induced interactions can directly excite plasmons in semiconductors, thereby providing an additional channel for detecting the leptophobic dark matter. In this work, we investigate plasmon excitations in silicon detectors induced by boosted dark matter and cosmic-ray up-scattering dark matter via the hadronic loop process. By analyzing the available experimental data, we derive new exclusion limits on the leptophobic dark matter-nucleon scattering cross section in the sub-MeV mass range.

hep-ph↗
arXiv2026

Big Ramsey degrees and structures in relational languages

We establish a precompact transfer theorem for big Ramsey structures and a uniform envelope theorem for valuation hypergraphs. These yield big Ramsey structures for generic injective relational structures in languages with finitely many symbols of each positive arity, answering the existence part of Problem~6.3.2 of Balko et al.\ [M.~Balko et al., J.~Eur.~Math.~Soc.\ 28, 2101--2150 (2026)], and refute Conjecture~4.7 of Braunfeld et al.\ [S.~Braunfeld et al., Adv.~Comb., Paper No.~4 (2024)]. We also construct a finitely constrained free amalgamation class in a finite language of maximum arity three whose Fraïssé limit has infinite singleton big Ramsey degree, giving a negative answer to the existence question in Problem~6.3.3 of Balko et al.

math.LO↗
arXiv2026

RMBench: Memory-Dependent Robotic Manipulation Benchmark with Insights into Policy Design

Robotic manipulation policies have made rapid progress in recent years, yet most existing approaches give limited consideration to memory capabilities. Consequently, they struggle to solve tasks that require reasoning over historical observations and maintaining task-relevant information over time, which are common requirements in real-world manipulation scenarios. Although several memory-aware policies have been proposed, systematic evaluation of memory-dependent manipulation remains underexplored, and the relationship between architectural design choices and memory performance is still not well understood. To address this gap, we introduce RMBench, a simulation benchmark comprising 9 manipulation tasks that span multiple levels of memory complexity, enabling systematic evaluation of policy memory capabilities. We further propose Mem-0, a modular manipulation policy with explicit memory components designed to support controlled ablation studies. Through extensive simulation and real-world experiments, we identify memory-related limitations in existing policies and provide empirical insights into how architectural design choices influence memory performance. The website is available at https://rmbench.github.io/.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

Pythia: Toward Foundation World Models for Multimodal Time Series

Time-series foundation models offer a unified approach to forecasting across heterogeneous domains. Textual context and auxiliary observations provide complementary information about temporal dynamics, yet reusable multimodal predictive representations remain underexplored. We introduce Pythia, a foundation world model that learns context-conditioned latent dynamics across datasets through a joint-embedding predictive architecture. A stop-gradient numerical reference guides contextual corrections to predicted future states. A separate probabilistic decoder then adapts to the frozen predictive representation and observed history, decoupling world-model pretraining from observation-space forecasting. On MUSE, Pythia-Tiny's normalized mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and weighted sum quantile loss (WSQL) are 0.6879 and 0.4269, reducing errors by 6.26% and 5.00% relative to the strongest model evaluated in the published MUSE leaderboard. Through a series of controlled experiments, we investigate how to design a time-series world model through shared pretraining and how joint-embedding predictive learning can incorporate multimodal information. The results support separating predictive representation learning from probabilistic readout and show complementary contributions from entity descriptions, events, and covariates.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Learning the Context of Errors: Black-Box Online Adaptation of Time Series Foundation Models

The rapid evolution of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has advanced zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains. Inspired by the current form of Large Language Models, future TSFMs may be offered as commercialized, closed-source API services. However, many existing online adaptation methods still rely on white-box access for parameter fine-tuning or gradient backpropagation. This paradigm mismatch raises a question: In black-box online adaptation for TSFMs, what should we learn? We answer this with an insight: the predictive errors of the base model are conditioned on both the input and output of the base model (i.e., the context of errors). To validate this insight, we propose ORCA (Online Residual Contextual Adaptation). We conduct extensive experiments across 5 state-of-the-art TSFMs and 8 datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, through ablation studies, we quantitatively analyze the impact of different adapter learning hypotheses on the final adaptation performance in black-box online adaptation. Code available at https://github.com/Fifthky/ORCA.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

MASkillBlender: Decentralized Whole-Body Coordination for Multi-Humanoid Loco-Manipulation via Skill Blending

Coordinated multi-humanoid loco-manipulation is promising yet challenging due to high-dimensional whole-body control, decentralized decision making, and scalability. While recent reinforcement learning methods have improved single-humanoid whole-body control, extending them to the multi-humanoid setting remains nontrivial and often requires substantial reward engineering or task-specific design. We propose MASkillBlender, a general multi-agent reinforcement learning framework to achieve decentralized multi-humanoid whole-body coordination. By learning a shared decentralized high-level policy over reusable pre-trained single-humanoid skills, MASkillBlender enables coordinated behaviors using only task-level rewards, without requiring task-specific motion references. To improve learning efficiency, we further introduce a permutation-based data augmentation strategy for homogeneous multi-humanoid systems, and theoretically show that the permuted samples preserve the policy-gradient direction of the original samples under the homogeneous Markov game formulation. We evaluate MASkillBlender on multiple multi-humanoid coordination tasks across two humanoid embodiments. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently achieves strong task performance and enables coordinated behaviors across different tasks and humanoid embodiments.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

Existence Precedes Value: Joint Modeling of Observational Existence and Evolving States in Time Series Forecasting

Real-world time series are often highly incomplete and irregular due to sensor dormancy, transmission delays, and event-driven sampling, making reliable forecasting fundamentally challenging. Existing methods have evolved from impute-then-forecast pipelines to continuous-time models such as Neural ODEs and continuous-time graph networks. While these approaches improve the modeling of historical irregularity, they still rely on an implicit oracle assumption at inference time: the timestamps of future valid observations are presumed to be known in advance. This assumption limits practical relevance, since in many real systems the more fundamental question is not only what the future value will be, but also whether a valid observation will occur at all. In this paper, we propose Timeflies, a unified framework that reformulates forecasting as a joint problem of future observability inference and value estimation. To explicitly model the interaction between observation dynamics and state evolution, Timeflies adopts an observation stream and a value stream, coupled through three dedicated modules for reliability-aware embedding, observation-guided dependency modeling, and joint prediction. We further construct Shadow, a benchmark that combines natural missingness from public datasets with real-world industrial data, and introduce the Observation-Value Joint Entropy (OVJE) metric to comprehensively evaluate this coupled predictability. Extensive experiments show that Timeflies consistently outperforms existing methods, highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling future observability in time series forecasting with missing values. Code and dataset are available in https://github.com/ant-intl/Timeflies.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Universal Cross-Prompt Adversarial Attacks on Promptable Concept Segmentation

The Segment Anything Model (SAM) achieves remarkable performance in visual segmentation. The latest SAM3 extends promptable segmentation to concept-level prediction, broadening the scope of segmentation foundation models. While recent works reveal that SAM and SAM2 are vulnerable to adversarial examples, the robustness of SAM3 under the concept segmentation paradigm remains unexplored. In addition, existing adversarial attacks on SAM-series models exhibit limited cross-prompt transferability. To this end, we propose AdvPCS, a universal cross-prompt adversarial attack for Promptable Concept Segmentation (PCS), including a min-max prompt optimization strategy, a global-local perception deception attack, and a temporal transition deviation attack. Specifically, we first identify the hardest-to-attack prompts via min-max bilevel optimization. In the inner maximization, we enhance diversity over candidate point, box, and text prompts. In the outer minimization, we select prompts with the highest responses based on the confidence scores output by the detector. Given the selected prompts, we apply the perception deception attack to minimize both global and local existence probabilities under joint prompting and employ the temporal memory misalignment attack to maximize inter-frame semantic inconsistency and corrupt memory pointers. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets show that a single universal adversarial perturbation (UAP) generated by our method generalizes across frames from different videos and achieves strong attack performance under point, box, and text prompts. In particular, it reduces the average mIoU of various PCS models on the SA-CO dataset to below 5% under text prompts, demonstrating strong attack ability.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

Dr. OPD: Learning What to Follow for Optimal On-Policy Distillation of Large Language Models

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student on its own generated responses using dense, token-level supervision from a stronger teacher. Vanilla OPD treats all teacher signals equally, assuming that the teacher's supervision is equally important for every token. However, teacher signals at different tokens may have very different effects on the student's performance: some correct important reasoning errors, while others have little effect on the final answer. Motivated by this observation, we introduce Dr. OPD (OPD Done Right), which defines the optimal weighted OPD to maximize the student's performance. We formulate Dr. OPD as a bilevel optimization problem in which the student learns from weighted teacher supervision, while the weights are selected to maximize the expected reward of the resulting student. To solve Dr. OPD, we develop an efficient iterative solver that updates the token weights and student policy alternatively. At each round, it updates weights in closed form and then takes one gradient step on the resulting weighted OPD objective. Under regularity conditions, we show that this weighted update achieves a higher expected reward than a vanilla OPD update. Empirically, across strong-to-weak and same-size distillation on math and code, Dr. OPD consistently outperforms all evaluated baselines. In particular, in the strong-to-weak distillation setting, Dr. OPD improves average math performance by $9.7$ points over vanilla OPD, and enables the smaller student to surpass its larger teacher.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

When Tomorrow Becomes Today: Self-Evolving Policies for Agentic Time-Series Forecasting

Agentic time series forecasting concerns systems whose underlying mechanisms evolve, making the relative effectiveness of numerical models, reasoning strategies, and intervention rules inherently time-varying. Consequently, a time series agent must adapt the forecasts it produces and the orchestration policy that determines which components to trust and how to coordinate them. The deployment process naturally provides supervision for this adaptation as forecast horizons elapse and realized targets reveal the effectiveness of earlier decisions. Committing all numerical expert forecasts and candidate agent paths before target observation allows each realized outcome to evaluate the entire alternative set, providing delayed feedback without additional annotation. However, existing time series agents primarily incorporate prior experience through forecast refinement, reflection, or retrieval, without systematically converting realized outcomes into persistent updates to the joint orchestration policy governing later origins. To exploit this delayed feedback systematically, we introduce TimEvolve, a frozen-backbone time series agent that converts each realized outcome into persistent joint updates of expert trust, agent path selection, and intervention strength. A temporally ordered predict, reveal, and update protocol applies this feedback to subsequent forecasts. Experiments across eight Time-MMD domains show that TimEvolve achieves the best average MSE and MAE ranks among fifteen methods and the lowest errors on both metrics in seven domains. These results demonstrate the value of learning forecasting policies from the futures encountered during deployment.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

What the "Spotless" Mind Remembers: How Knowledge Entanglement Shapes What Leaks After Unlearning in LLMs

Unlearning in large language models (LLMs) is usually evaluated as whether an "unlearned" fact can be recovered. We instead ask whether a fact's structural entanglement with the rest of a model's knowledge predicts whether it leaks after unlearning, whether this relationship changes systematically, and whether it is causal. Across varied unlearning algorithms (WHP and GA+KL), two domains (both fictional Harry Potter and non-fictional U.S. Senators, 2000-2010), and four models (2.7B-13B parameters), we find that before unlearning, more entangled facts are recalled more often (r = +0.39 to +0.51). WHP weakens this relationship but stays positive (r = +0.16 to +0.33); GA+KL inverts it in every domain and model size (r = -0.14 to -0.25). To our knowledge, this is the first report of this specific reversal in the unlearning literature. To confirm this is causal beyond correlation, we directly manipulate a prompt's entanglement score, holding its content, target model fixed, and show recall moves in the predicted direction and reverses sign under GA+KL in the same direction as the correlational analysis. This manipulation is our central evidence that unlearning acts on the underlying knowledge structure, not just its output. Building on this, we train a predictive model that estimates a prompt's post-unlearning factuality/hallucination profile before unlearning is run, creating a unique way of model auditing in triaging which prompts are likely to leak.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Mint-Agent: Introducing Finance-Native Agentic Foundation Models

Financial agents must do more than recall domain knowledge: they must be both reliable, executing precise operations over grounded evidence, and executive, sustaining long-horizon research whose conclusions remain auditable. We present Mint-Agent, a family of finance-native agentic models designed around these two scales of financial intelligence. Mint-Agent is built upon three pillars: data, harness, and algorithm. Our data engine constructs clean, specialized tasks for atomic financial capabilities and long-horizon agentic execution from real-world financial sources. MintHarness enables stable interaction with open-ended environments and maintains auditable evidence trails across extended research trajectories. Our training recipe combines SFT, critical-step OPD, and RLVR to develop separate financial reasoning and agentic execution experts, which are then unified through model merging and multi-teacher on-policy distillation into compact, general-purpose financial agents. This pipeline yields two flagship models, Mint-Cu (9B) and Mint-Ag (27B). Across professional financial benchmarks, our models demonstrate two defining strengths: (1) Reliability: Mint-Ag achieves 98.33% on RFC-Bench, surpassing GPT-5.6-Sol and Claude-Opus-4.8 by 3.66 and 3.00 points; and (2) Executability: Mint-Cu reaches 69.86% on FinSearchComp T2, outperforming Agents-A1-35B and Nex-N2-mini by 22.83 and 12.78 points, while Mint-Ag achieves 76.00% and 60.49% on FinanceAgentBench v1.1 and v2, respectively. These results establish a path toward trustworthy financial intelligence in which domain expertise, long-horizon execution, and auditable evidence are jointly engineered as a unified foundation for frontier agentic models.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Into the ORBIT for Time Series: Training Regimes for Foundation Models

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have advanced primarily through architectural innovation, while training regimes for large-scale heterogeneous corpora remain under-explored. As a result, pre-training distributions are often poorly controlled with respect to domain imbalance, context requirements, prediction horizons, and missingness. We introduce ORBIT (Omni-Range Bootstrap Incremental Training), a training paradigm that makes this distribution explicit and controllable. ORBIT combines Bootstrap Multi-Level Sampling, which controls dataset exposure and samples records, target variables, context windows, and prediction horizons, with Omni-Range Incremental Training, which varies context lengths and prediction horizons throughout a single training stage. Under ORBIT, we train Falcon-2.0, a simple univariate encoder-only Transformer with missingness-aware triple-channel patch tokenization and parallel patch prediction. We further introduce Rank-Guided Cross-Depth Alignment, a training objective that uses late-layer representations as stop-gradient teachers for shallow layers without additional inference cost. Evaluations on GIFT-Eval and fev-bench demonstrate strong zero-shot forecasting performance across diverse domains and frequencies.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Visualizing High-Dimensional Graph Embeddings via Informed Multi-View Projections

Graphs are commonly visualized in 2D, where humans readily interpret spatial relationships, yet such layouts often distort higher-dimensional structure. We propose to embed graphs in high-dimensional space and search for informative 2D viewpoints that optimize aesthetic and readability metrics (e.g., edge crossings and angular resolution), enabled by a novel differentiable surrogate for edge crossings. Numerical experiments show that these viewpoints consistently outperform standard 2D layouts, and can even surpass methods explicitly designed to optimize these metrics. We further introduce DataFly, an interactive system for exploring multiple candidate viewpoints through seamless navigation. A usability study demonstrates that our approach reveals structural patterns that remain hidden in conventional 2D visualizations.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Sharp Root Anti-Concentration via Projective Incidence and Ordered Root Laws

This paper answers the one-dimensional local root anti-concentration questions posed by Balcan, Pegden, and Sharma in the context of online optimization of piecewise-Lipschitz functions. For a homogeneous feature curve and coefficients whose density relative to the uniform law on a symmetric convex body $K$ is bounded by $A$, we show that the worst-case interval-hitting constant equals $A$ times a section-averaged projective incidence speed. For cube-supported coefficients, this speed is equivalent, up to universal constants, to the projective Lipschitz constant. This yields a sharp, dimension-free characterization and removes the previous $\sqrt N$ loss. For monic degree-$d$ polynomials under arbitrary coefficient laws, we prove that the interval-hitting constant is finite if and only if the ordered real-root laws have bounded densities, with a factor-$d$ comparison that is sharp. Conditional and joint coefficient-space area formulas, together with a two-chart certificate, make this criterion verifiable for dependent and singular coefficient laws. We also give two graph-learning applications that complete the transition-to-regret chain. A cost-sensitive Gaussian-RBF harmonic classifier uses the projective incidence theorem and achieves expected regret $\widetilde O((An^2D e^{BD}/\ell+1)\sqrt T)$. A common-offset polynomial-kernel model uses rigid translation of the ordered roots and achieves $\widetilde O((qn^2κ+1)\sqrt T)$ regret, even when the induced coefficient law is singular in the ambient coefficient space.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Let Me Look at You: Advanced Facial Expression Modeling for Conversational Speech Synthesis

Conversational Speech Synthesis is a fundamental component of human-computer interaction, aiming to generate contextually appropriate, expressive, and empathetic speech. However, facial expressions encode subtle and rich affective cues that are crucial for empathetic speech interaction, whereas existing approaches often overlook this important modality. In addition, the lack of large-scale natural conversational datasets with both speech and visual modalities also limits the development of visual affect understanding in conversational settings.To address these limitations, we propose FacialTalker, a facial-expression-aware CSS framework built upon a large language model backbone. To efficiently encode facial expressions, we propose AUTokenizer, a single-codebook visual tokenizer that discretizes each frame-level facial expression into a compact token, trained with supervision from combinations of facial Action Units. We further introduce a dual direct preference optimization (DualDPO) strategy, which extends the DPO by jointly imposing preference constraints on both visual and speech token sequences, to enhance the model's understanding of facial expressions and speech semantics in multimodal conversational contexts. Moreover, we construct VSDD-1K, a large-scale multimodal dialogue dataset collected through a fully automated pipeline from real-world Internet conversations, comprising over 1,033 hours of synchronized speaker videos and speech, with more than 85\% of frames containing valid faces. Extensive objective and subjective experiments demonstrate that FacialTalker consistently outperforms strong baselines in facial-expression perception and speech synthesis quality, generating speech that is more natural, expressive, and better aligned with the conversational context. The results also validate the effectiveness of our training strategy and dataset construction pipeline.

cs.HC↗