Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2312.01052

SCTc-TE: A Comprehensive Formulation and Benchmark for Temporal Event Forecasting

Yunshan Ma·Chenchen Ye·Zijian Wu·Xiang Wang·Yixin Cao·Liang Pang·Tat-Seng Chua
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Temporal complex event forecasting aims to predict the future events given the observed events from history. Most formulations of temporal complex event are unstructured or without extensive temporal information, resulting in inferior representations and limited forecasting capabilities. To bridge these gaps, we innovatively introduce the formulation of Structured, Complex, and Time-complete temporal event (SCTc-TE). Following this comprehensive formulation, we develop a fully automated pipeline and construct a large-scale dataset named MidEast-TE from about 0.6 million news articles. This dataset focuses on the cooperation and conflict events among countries mainly in the MidEast region from 2015 to 2022. Not limited to the dataset construction, more importantly, we advance the forecasting methods by discriminating the crucial roles of various contextual information, i.e., local and global contexts. Thereby, we propose a novel method LoGo that is able to take advantage of both Local and Global contexts for SCTc-TE forecasting. We evaluate our proposed approach on both our proposed MidEast-TE dataset and the original GDELT-TE dataset. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our forecasting model LoGo. The code and datasets are released via https://github.com/yecchen/GDELT-ComplexEvent.

Explore related subjects

cs.IRcs.CL

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Yunshan Ma, Chenchen Ye, Zijian Wu, Xiang Wang, Yixin Cao, Liang Pang, Tat-Seng Chua. 2023-12-02. SCTc-TE: A Comprehensive Formulation and Benchmark for Temporal Event Forecasting. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.01052

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

UniRec: Cross-stage Multi-Task Fusion with Preference Alignment for Cascaded Recommender Systems

Industrial recommender systems use cascaded stages with different objectives, feature spaces, and latency constraints. Optimizing pre-ranking and ranking separately can create cross-stage inconsistency: upstream models may filter out items preferred by downstream rankers, and independently tuned downstream fusion can offset upstream improvements. Existing multi-task fusion methods focus on multi-objective fusion within the ranking stage, and cross-stage methods typically only add a downstream score factor to upstream ranking. Joint optimization of fusion modules across both stages remains largely unexplored. We propose UniRec, a Unified Cross-stage Recommendation Fusion model. First, the two fusion agents partially share input embeddings and are trained in a single computation graph, so gradients from either stage propagate through the shared representation and influence the other. Second, we introduce a dual-axis preference alignment objective: a vertical cross-stage consistency term transfers downstream pairwise preferences to the upstream fusion score, and a horizontal compact aggregation term reorganizes dozens of pairwise objectives over heterogeneous prior signals into bidirectional preference evidence. Third, we find that unconstrained end-to-end fusion optimization can exploit imbalances in item attribute distributions, over-concentrating on high-reward regions at the cost of other objectives. We therefore add an attribute group-relative regularization that computes advantages within attribute groups and normalizes the policy over the same groups, so uniformly promoting an entire high-reward group yields no optimization gain. Offline, UniRec consistently outperforms single-stage fusion and cross-stage coordination baselines. Online A/B tests show a 0.616\% gain in app usage duration. UniRec is fully deployed on the Kuaishou platform.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2026

VikingRAG: Accurate and Token-efficient Retrieval-augmented Generation over Structured Documents

State-of-the-art retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) methods exploit document structures to acquire sufficient evidence, but often incur substantial token costs. To reduce structural-context tokens without compromising high RAG accuracy, we present {\sf VikingRAG}, a directory-aware semantic data management system that tightly integrates semantic and structural access to support structural-context-efficient, evidence-gap-driven multi-round retrieval. To further reduce token overhead of multi-round interaction, we materialize agentic multi-round retrieval traces as experience edges, and reuse these edges for similar queries, avoiding repeated multi-round exploration. To additionally reduce token costs when agentic multi-round retrieval is unnecessary, we introduce an adaptive escalation strategy that answers from one-round experience-augmented retrieval when the evidence is sufficient, and invokes agentic multi-round retrieval only otherwise. Experiments on real datasets show that the base system {\sf VikingRAG} matches high accuracy of state-of-the-art methods while consuming only 11.6\%--51.9\% of their tokens. With retrieval-trace reuse and adaptive escalation, token costs drop to 5.1\%--32.5\% while maintaining competitive accuracy and practical document-storage performance, showing the utility of this work for emerging AI knowledge bases.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2026

TimelyRAG: Semantic-Temporal Hybrid Retrieval for Time-Critical Question Answering in Overlapping-Evolving Documents

Although large language models (LLMs) and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) have advanced open-domain question answering (QA), they remain unreliable when documents evolve through amendments. Existing time-sensitive retrieval methods address only the disjoint-evolving environment, where each update is an independent snapshot. However, laws, policies, and regulations often operate in overlapping-evolving environments, where amendments override earlier clauses while preserving most content, creating strong semantic overlap across versions. We propose TimelyRAG, a retriever-agnostic framework that incorporates temporal distance into ranking to align queries with version-appropriate documents. We also introduce TimelyQABench, the first benchmark for regulation-heavy domains with overlapping-evolving challenges. Experiments show consistent gains, up to +28.6% in nDCG@10, highlighting the importance of temporal reasoning for reliable QA over evolving documents. All resources are available at https://github.com/kaist-dmlab/TimelyRAG.

cs.IR↗