Modeling Atmospheric Ion Escape from Kepler-1649 b and c over Time

Abstract

Rocky planets orbiting M-dwarf stars are prime targets for atmospheric characterization, yet their long-term evolution under intense stellar winds and high-energy radiation remains poorly constrained. The Kepler-1649 system, hosting two terrestrial exoplanets orbiting an M5V star, provides a valuable laboratory for studying atmospheric evolution in the extreme environments typical of M-dwarf systems. In this Letter we show that both planets could have retained atmospheres over gigayear timescales. Using a multi-species magnetohydrodynamic model, we simulate atmospheric ion escape driven by stellar winds and extreme ultraviolet radiation from 0.8 to 4.0 Gyr. The results reveal a clear decline in total ion escape rates with stellar age, as captured by a nonparametric LOWESS regression, with O$^{+}$ comprising 98.3%-99.9% of the total loss. Escape rates at 4.0 Gyr are two to three orders of magnitude lower than during early epochs. At 0.8 Gyr, planet b exhibits 3.79$\times$ higher O$^{+}$ escape rates than planet c, whereas by 4.0 Gyr its O$^{+}$ escape rate becomes 39.5$\times$ lower. This reversal arises from a transition to sub-magnetosonic star-planet interactions, where the fast magnetosonic Mach number, $M_f$, falls below unity. Despite substantial early atmospheric erosion, both planets may have retained significant atmospheres, suggesting potential long-term habitability. These findings offer predictive insight into atmospheric retention in the Kepler-1649 system and inform future JWST observations of similar M-dwarf terrestrial exoplanets aimed at refining habitability assessments.