Crowd Dynamics in Historical Perspective: Reframing the Amritsar Massacre through Agent-Based Modelling and Social Psychology

Abstract

Crowds have long held a paradoxical place in the human imagination, feared for their destructive potential yet essential for collective expression. This tension was tragically manifested in the 1919 Jallianwala Bagh massacre, when British colonial troops opened fire on a peaceful gathering in Amritsar, India. Although officially 379 deaths were recorded, eyewitnesses and historians have long challenged this figure. With this study, we critically revisit the events through the lens of the specific role of the crowd as a phenomenon, both regarding the physical and the socio-psychological dynamics. We show that even under conservative physical assumptions - moderate shooting cadence, crowd-shielding, and constrained escape routes - our agent-based simulations consistently yield fatality estimates well above the official death count. On the socio-psychological front, we explore how early 20th-century discourses, influenced by Le Bon's theory of crowd psychology, constructed the crowd as an inherently irrational and threatening entity, thus providing a rationale for the application of excessive force. Our findings show that acknowledging the socio-cultural construction of crowds as a relevant factor in how state power engage with and respond to collective gatherings brings to light contemporary parallels and the risks posed by their rhetorical framing. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of interdisciplinary modelling for both historical accountability and current crowd safety, particularly in an era of growing political unrest, surveillance, and militarised crowd policing.