Bayesian and Monte Carlo approaches to estimating uncertainty for the measurement of the bound-state $\beta$ decay of $^{205}\mathrm{Tl}^{81+}$

Abstract

The measurement of the bound-state $\beta$ decay of $^{205}\mathrm{Tl}^{81+}$ at the Experimental Storage Ring at GSI, Darmstadt, has recently been reported with substantial impact on the use of $^{205}\mathrm{Pb}$ as an early Solar System chronometer and the low-energy measurement of the solar neutrino spectrum via the LOREX project. Due to the technical challenges in producing a high-purity $^{205}\mathrm{Tl}^{81+}$ secondary beam, a robust statistical method needed to be developed to estimate the variation in the contaminant $^{205}\mathrm{Pb}^{81+}$ produced in the fragmentation reaction, which was subsequently transmitted and stored in the ESR. Here we show that Bayesian and Monte Carlo methods produced comparable estimates for the contaminant variation, each with unique advantages and challenges given the complex statistical problems for this experiment. We recommend the adoption of such methods in future experiments that exhibit unknown statistical fluctuations.