arXiv · 2610.37585
Timestral
Abstract
We introduce Timestral, a family of four time series foundation models for probabilistic forecasting, with 5M, 28M, 123M, and 209M parameters. Timestral sets a new state of the art on GIFT-Eval, TIME, and fev-bench, where Timestral-209M and Timestral-123M take the top two places on every metric. We achieve this with three ingredients: Decoupled Horizon Forecasting (DHF), which separates prediction tokens from the causally encoded context, so that longer horizons are trained without masking context and each observed value is both a forecast target and context for later forecasts; a covariate framework that natively supports known-future covariates within a causal architecture; and a two-stage pipeline that pretrains exclusively on a diverse, large-scale synthetic corpus before post-training on a mix of real and synthetic data with extended context. This report describes the model design and its benchmark results. Weights for all four models are available on Hugging Face and inference code on GitHub.
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Adrien Petralia, Alexandre Gavaudan, Artjom Joosen, Etienne Goffinet, Richard Kurle, Yassine El Ouahidi, Yassir Bendou, Abdelaziz Bounhar, Abhijeet Somani, Aditi Kabra, Adrian Valente, Adrien Sadé, Ahmed Djermani, Alan Jeffares, Albert Jiang, Alberto Bietti, Aleksandr Timashov, Alexandre Cahill, Alexandre Laval, Alexandre Sablayrolles, Alexandros Sanchez Vassopoulos, Amélie Héliou, Amos You, André Jonasson, Andreas Fürst, Andrew Bai, Andrew Ehrenberg, Andrew Zhao, Andy Lo, Angele Lenglemetz, Anmol Agarwal, Antonia Calvi, Arata Suzuki, Arjun Majumdar, Arthur Fournier, Ashwani Kumar, Augustin Lombard, Avinash Sooriyarachchi, Aylin Guliz Akkus, Aysenur Karaduman, Baptiste Bout, Baptiste Rozière, Barna Pásztor, Baudouin De Monicault, Benjamin Holzschuh, Benjamin Tibi, Benno Stein, Bernhard Stadlbauer, Bhargavi Bhaskar, Binbing Hou, Błażej Osiński, Boris van Breugel, Camille Le Scao, Chaoran Yu, Charlotte Cronjäger, Chen-Yo Sun, Chris Bamford, Christian Wallenwein, Christophe Renaudin, Clémence Lanfranchi, Colin Bonatti, Corentin Barreau, Corentin Sautier, Cristiana-Diana Diaconu, Cyprien Courtot, Daniel Lopes, Daniel Marczak, Darius Dabert, Diego de las Casas, Dominik Nuss, Dylan Rubini, Dzmitry Soupel, Elizaveta Demyanenko, Elliot Chane-Sane, Emilien Fugier, Emmanuel Gottlob, Erik Aas, Etienne Duchesne, Fabian Paischer, Fabian Schlager, Faruk Ahmed, Federico Baldassarre, Félix Rosseeuw, Filip Szatkowski, Filippo Vicentini, Florian Wiesner, Gabrielle Berrada, Gaëtan Ecrepont, Gaspard Blanchet, Gaspard Donada-Vidal, Gaurav Mahajan, Gauthier Guinet, Genevieve Hayes, Georgii Novikov, Georgios Christoglou, Giada Pistilli, Gonzague de Carpentier, Graeme Nail, Guillaume Breton, Guillaume Kunsch. 2026-10-27. Timestral. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.37585
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